WEC 31: The Complete Breakdown

by LR 12/10/2007 6:40:00 PM

Newsday (Source)Only four days following the spectacular Ultimate Fighter Finale, Zuffa once again puts on another great show on paper in World Extreme CageFighting 31. A sister promotion to the UFC, WEC has seen a resurgence in its stance in the MMA market with a television deal with Versus and supporting programming that continues to market the WEC well. The card on Wednesday night will only feed the hunger for likeness to the UFC. The event features three... count 'em three title bouts. Urijah Faber will defend the Featherweight crown against Jeff Curran, Doug "The Rhino" Marshall will defend his Light Heavyweight belt against Ariel Gandulla, and PRIDE veteran Paulo Filho, arguably ranked #2 at Middleweight, will defend his title against an able Chael Sonnen. Here's some more in-depth looks at each matchup and myself and John McKiernan weigh in our picks.

WEC Featherweight Title Bout
Urijah Faber vs. Jeff Curran

If there is one defining aspect of one fighter over another, it's experience. Curran (28-8-1) has a plethora of international and national experience in the cage. He has fought some of the best in the world, and still remains an underdog in this battle. Namely, he has recently beaten Rafael Assuncao, Wagnney Fabiano, Charles Bennett, and Antonio Carvalho all within the last 3 years. Fighters who are not slouched in the striking or ju-jitsu arena of the MMA skillset. He's taken on Matt Serra and "Kid" Yamamoto and taken them the distance. We can safely say that Curran is no stranger to high-level competition.

There is one aspect of his skillset that he lacks, and that is his ability to end fights. He is always a danger to submit his opponent, but he also has a tendency to miss holds and allow opponents to slip away from him. Stephen Ledbetter, his most recent win at WEC 29, was a perfect example of that. The question really becomes whether or not his great ju-jitsu background can counter Faber's relentless attack.

Urijah Faber (19-1) is an animal in the cage. His relentless attack has sometimes been likened to that of a Clay Guida, but he has knockout power along with a solid wresting game on the ground. The major X-factor in this fight is Faber's ability to keep the fight standing and putting the leather on Curran's face. If he can keep the fight standing, Faber will prevail. If the fight goes to the ground, Curran must avoid the devastating power that Faber can unleash on the floor.

Leland's Prediction: Urijah Faber by second round TKO

Faber is powerful, has the ability to avoid submissions, and is very strong in both his standup and ground game. Curran's ju-jitsu abilities are world-renowned, but he will have to avoid the fists of fury from Faber. I see Faber putting him out.

John's Prediction: Urijah Faber by second round TKO

Tougher fight for Faber than many expect.  Curran is well experienced with almost thirty wins.  Faber has explosive athletic ability, should look to keep this fight standing and will be able to.  The face of the 145 LB division in the U.S. gets his 20th win.

Joe's Prediction: Urijah Faber by third round TKO

Faber’s wrestling is too good, and he has shown good submission defense in the past. While Curran has great jiu-jitsu, I don’t think he’s going to be able to submit Faber. Faber will look to keep the fight standing for a bit, but then I expect him to take the fight to the mat where he’ll finish Curran with strikes sometime in the 3rd round.
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WEC Middleweight Title Bout
Paulo Filho vs. Chael Sonnen
Graciemag.com (Source)

Arguably the #2 ranked Middleweight in the World, Paulo Filho (15-0) made his WEC debut in winning fashion with a surprising TKO win over the veteran Joe Doerksen at WEC 29. Filho, primarily known for his ju-jitsu skills on the ground, has fought and defeated some of the best in the world in the weight class. Kazuo Misaki, Ryo Chonan, Murilo Rua, and Yuki Kondo have all fallen to Filho either by decision or by the feared armbar. Filho has some extensive ground game, but his striking has always been lacking. Sonnen will be a test in Filho's standup game to an extent, but Sonnen's ground tactics may not be able to nullify Filho.

Chael Sonnen (19-8-1) is an interesting matchup for Filho. Sonnen is known to have some great knockout power, but he's been known to fade and go the distance on multiple occassions. His one weakness against better competition has been the submission. This is where Filho may have the opportunity to win this fight if Sonnen doesn't land a big punch early. Sonnen has been racking up wins in BodogFight for the last year, and recently won at SportFight 20 up in the Northwest. There is an opponent that Sonnen has lost to convincingly 3 times that really sums up what Filho's gameplan will be, that's Jeremy Horn. Horn has defeated Sonnen three seperate times, two by submission. I wouldn't put Horn on the same level as Filho on the ground, although he is a very good grappler. It does outline a big problem in Sonnen's ground game though.

Leland's Prediction: Paulo Filho by 3rd round submission

This is an interesting fight due to the fact that Filho hasn't faced a hard-nosed wrestler in awhile, if at all. Sonnen will have power, and I think it will take Filho some time to work on the ground. Nonetheless, I believe Filho will submit him late in the bout.

John's Prediction: Paulo Filho by 2nd round submission

15-0 and Sonnen is no joke, but also not the guy to give Filho his first loss. The Brazilian is the undisputed #2 Middleweight world (possibly #1 in my mind) and has subbed a number of guys better than Sonnen. Wrestling and ju-jitsu is too good.

Joe's Prediction: Paulo Filho by 1st round submission

Filho is too strong and his grappling is too good for Sonnen. Sonnen has shown weakness in the past against fighters that have a good submission game. I think this fight will go similar to Filho’s last fight with Doerksen, but he’ll be able to finish this time with his grappling. Look for a submission, most likely an armbar, in the first round.
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WEC Light Heavyweight Title Bout
Doug Marshall vs. Ariel Gandulla

I'll make this short and sweet. Marshall (6-2) is a straight brawler. He has good knockout power and standup skills, but to be honest, I've only seen him roll on the ground once to win a fight. This fight wasn't made for a ground war, and it will certainly be a standup fight. Ultimately however, someone is going to shoot for the takedown to ground and pound their opponent or try to clip their opponent's chin and put him to the canvas for the ground and pound. Either way, strikes will end this fight.

Gandulla (4-0) isn't overly impressive in his standup or ground and pound tactics. He's more reserved than Marshall will be as Marshall seems to be overly aggressive at times. Could this be a strength? It's possible because I expect Gandulla to be taller than Marshall, and I think he'll have an easier time keeping Marshall at a distance. Does this equate to a victory for Gandulla? I'm not completely convinced, but I may go with the upset pick.

Leland's Prediction: Ariel Gandulla by TKO, 2nd round.

Marshall's striking is sloppy, and I believe Gandulla's patience can outlast the onslaught. He has some good power and the ability to elude the big blows. Marshall just isn't championship material in my eyes.

John's Prediction: Ariel Gandulla by TKO

Gandulla has proven he's tough and I see an upset.  ATT will have Ariel ready.

Joe's Prediction: Doug Marshall by TKO, 1st round.

As much as I want to pick against Doug Marshall here, I can’t. Marshall is strictly a brawler who likes to bang out his victories. I think Gandulla will be overwhelmed by Marshall’s assault and succumb to strikes early in the first round.
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Jens Pulver vs. Cub Swanson

Fightsport.com (Source)One of the toughest fights for me to pick because I believe Jens is a class act in mixed martial arts. He's a warrior and trains just as hard as anyone out there and expects results because of it. Mainly known for his striking skills, Jens Pulver (21-8-1) has fought along side the best for a majority of his career. Most notably known for defeating BJ Penn at UFC 35 in a matchup that BJ was expected to win, Pulver went on to fight internationally against many of the best fighters in the world, although not having a whole lot of success. He was beaten by Hayato Sakurai and Takanori Gomi while fighting in PRIDE's Bushido series, and fell on hard times recently by losing to Joe Lauzon and BJ Penn in the UFC. Now, Jens will try his hand at a weight that he should have been fighting at his entire career. The featherweight in the division and around the world has recently garnered more interest and more fighters and has now allowed Jens to move down and fight legitimate competition.

Swanson (11-1) will be no easy fight for Jens Pulver. His most impressive battle as of recent was against Micah Miller at WEC 28. He showed a well-rounded skillset, great striking, some good ground tactics that enabled him to escape Miller on the ground and outlast him. He did a lot of damage once escaping holds and eventually tired Miller. Will we see this type of fight? Considering the fact that Pulver seems uninterested in heading to the mat, I would imagine a good standup war. Swanson does have a good ground game though. He has some nice takedown technique, and it could become a big problem for Pulver.

Leland's Prediction: Jens Pulver via second round TKO

Nearly everyone is picking Swanson, and I like Jens in this fight for the simple reason that he has dynamite in his hands. Swanson looks to be an easy pick, but Jens looks ultra motivated for this war. I think having 2 recent losses and coming down to his natural fighting weight will help tremendously. Look for Jens to feel out Swanson, and then attack in the second.

John's Prediction: Jens Pulver via first round KO

Coming off of two losses, one to a legend and a very devastating upset loss to Joe Lauzon, Pulver needs this win. Swanson is no cupcake, but he's never fought Pulver. All the pressure rests on Jens' shoulders, and the former champ will show he still has the hands that earned him the UFC belt.

Joe's Prediction: Jens Pulver via second round TKO

This fight is going to come down to Jens’ takedown defense. If he flops around and looks like he did against Joe Lauzon, this will be a very short night for him. However, I think Jens is truly motivated and is ready to make an impact in the 145lb weight class. He has excellent boxing and great power. I think Cub will try to stand and trade for him until he feels Jens’ power, but by then, it might be too late. Look for Jens to wear Cub down and finish him with strikes in the second round.
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Quick Hits

Brian Bowles (3-0) vs. Marcos Galvao (6-1)

Leland's Prediction: Galvao by unanimous decision

All of his fights have went the distance, showing some great cardio. He has a solid ju-jitsu background and has experience fighting some decent battles in Shooto as well. Bowles is a very green fighter, only having one fight in the WEC and two others against low-level competition that didn't present a challenge. I think Galvao will be a challenge and his ju-jitsu alone may be too much for Bowles.

John's Prediction: Galvao by unanimous decision

The Shooto veteran will make a succesful WEC debut.  Look for good jits from Galvao.

Joe's Prediction: Galvao by unanimous decision

Marcos Galvao is a Shooto veteran and possesses some good ground skills. Bowles is a green fighter, and hasn’t faced good competition so far. Galvao should win this fight on the judge’s scorecard.
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Bryan Baker (5-0) vs. Eric Shambari (7-0)

Leland's Prediction: Shambari via unanimous decision

I haven't been terribly impressed with either fighter. Baker was in trouble against Jesse Forbes and managed to reverse his luck and defeat Forbes. Schambari, on the other hand, hasn't been decisive in the WEC as far as finishing opponents goes. He has, however, continued to win against greener competition. I think both will bang, but get tired toward the middle of the fight. I think Eric can do enough early to win this one by decision.

John's Prediction: Shambari via decision

Past two opponents Art Santore and Logan Clark are solid, while giant Baker will be tested.

Joe's Prediction: Baker by second round TKO

The only fight I’ve seen of Baker was his fight with Jesse Forbes. He was getting outclassed for the most part, but managed to come from behind to pull off the victory. I think he’ll do the same against Shambari. 
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John Alessio (20-10) vs. Todd Moore (9-0)

Leland's Prediction: Alessio via first round submission

Alessio has a plethora of experience, but is susceptible to the submission himself. Most of his losses are against top competition, competition that Todd Moore hasn't seen before. I believe Alessio will be too much for him and will be a much tougher opponent than Moore's past opponents. This should be a win for Alessio.

John's Prediction: Alessio via first round submission

Alessio could be a star in the WEC on the way back after a loss to Condit. This is top level fighter, WEC will finally give the mainstream opportunity the seasoned vet has earned.  Moore is undefeated, but large increase in opponent quality here.

Joe's Prediction: Alessio via first round submission

Alessio is a well rounded fighter. He has some decent strikes, and an underrated ground game. He’s had some notable fights, particularly against Diego Sanchez and Carlos Condit. This fight should showcase some more of Alessio’s skills. Moore is undefeated, but he has yet to face any real competition. Alessio is too big of a step up for him at this point in his career. 
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Alex Karalexis (9-2) vs. Ed Ratcliff (5-0)

Leland's Prediction: Ratcliff by second round TKO

Ratcliff has a karate/grappling background as well as some decent striking ability. From what I've seen, his style is very quick and explosive, allowing him to move in for the kill and move away from the counters. I'm going to take the upset pick here.

John's Prediction: Karalexis by first round KO

This fight will have some fireworks! Alex has some real nice hands, and he's a way better fighter from the TUF series than he's given credit for.

Joe's Prediction: Karalexis by unanimous decision

Karalexis has some pretty good power, but tends to rely on his overhand right too much. He has a pretty good wrestling game and I think that’s where the difference in this fight will be. Look for Karalexis to start off striking, but he’ll eventually take the fight to the mat. I don’t think Ratcliff will have the takedown defense needed to stay off his back. Karalexis won’t finish, but it will be a dominating performance.
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Ian McCall (6-0) vs. Charlie Valencia (8-3)

Leland's Prediction: Valencia via second round TKO

Valencia actually has some power when he isn't being pummeled by some of the best in the WEC. I look for him to stop McCall's streak here.

John's Prediction: Valencia via decision

Valencia has fought two stars on this card, Faber and Swanson. Tough guy, I like him here.

Joe's Prediction: Valencia via second round TKO

I like Charlie Valencia in this fight. He has faced top flight competition, and lost, but he always brings it in each of his fights. Look for Valencia to finish this fight with strikes late in the first round or early in the second. 



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November 21. 2008 00:34


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