Get ready, fans! This could very well be one of the most exciting cards put together by the UFC in quite some time. UFC Fight Night 13 will take place on Wednesday night from Broomfield Event Center in Broomfield, Colorado, and it will feature a highly anticipated matchup between Kenny Florian and Joe Lauzon. Thiago Alves will also make a step up in competition against Karo Pariysan, and the event will feature well known names such as Matt Hamill, Houston Alexander, Gray Maynard, Frankie Edgar, Din Thomas, Clay Guida, and recent TUF contestants George Sotiropoulous, Roman Mitichyan, Tommy Speer. This could very well be the “Stacked” event we've all been waiting for. Props to Fightlinker for pushing the idea of making this event a 3 hour live televised card. The UFC won't acknowledge it, but I will. Great job, FL.
Before we get to my picks and Joe's predictions, let me just say.. I'm crazy for picking the fights I did, but I felt that there were some solid upset picks in the bunch.
Main Event: Joe Lauzon vs. Kenny Florian
This is a battle that I've been waiting for since it was announced. Kenny Florian's last seven battles have featured the former TUF contestant against some formidable opponents as he progressed up through the ranks. The climax was his loss to Sean Sherk at UFC 64, but he honorably took the fight to decision against a full load in Sherk. After the loss, he defeated Dokonjonosuke Mishima, a tough and explosive Alvin Robinson, and was putting the elbows on Din Thomas before he suffered a blown knee. Riding a three-win streak, Florian will be looking to stop the up-and-coming Joe Lauzon, and potentially win himself a title shot against BJ Penn.
Lauzon has been on a tear recently. He's won his last six fights in finishing fashion with a huge knockout win over former UFC lightweight champion Jens Pulver. The only real problem that Lauzon has had is that the level of competition he has faced has been subpar since Pulver. Melendez wasn't suited well against Lauzon's grappling, and Reinhardt's record was padded with horribly lopsided competition. Lauzon has the striking power in his hands and some excellent boxing skills, but Florian can counter his grappling and has some decent boxing himself. Florian is also very well versed in using his elbows in the ground and pound, and he's as tough as they come. This should be one exciting battle.
Without letting my biased get in the way too much, I'm admittedly a big Joe Lauzon fan. IT geek turned MMA fighter, who doesn't love it? On a purely analytical basis, Lauzon is great in most areas of mixed martial arts. He has great standup, good ground and pound, and can be controlling on the ground. Florian also has similar skills, and I don't believe Lauzon will be able to completely control him. The x-factor here is Lauzon's training at BJ Penn's facility in Hilo, Hawaii. Could it potentially have improved significantly enough to nullify the ground game? I think Lauzon has some ways to end this fight in which Florian may not be able to unless he can catch Lauzon in a submission.
Leland's Prediction: Joe Lauzon via submission, Round 3
This is an extremely close match-up between two above-average fighters. Florian has the better stand-up, but Lauzon has the better wrestling. Lauzon isn’t great at any one thing, but he is good at everything. Lauzon has decent striking, some decent power, good wrestling, and some ferocious ground-and-pound. Florian has good Muay Thai, and is a black belt in Brazilian Jiu-JJitsu. I think Joe will stand with Kenny for a while until he sees an opening to take a shot. From there he will look to work his ground-and-pound, but he will need to avoid Florian’s submissions. I think Joe’s training with BJ Penn will help him on the ground en route to a unanimous decision.
Joe's Prediction: Joe Lauzon via unanimous decision
Karo Parisyan vs. Thiago Alves
Karo has a bit of a task ahead of him in this one. Parisyan has been known recently for winning some weak decisions that were fairly uneventful. Parisyan has some big problems in this fight though, and it's evident if we look at his track record. Parisyan hasn't faced huge power in his last few fights, in fact, his last nine fights haven't featured overwhelming striking. Lytle and Serra could have been seen as potential forces in the standup game, but Serra is mainly a big puncher who hopes for the lucky blow while Lytle was winning his way to decisions back when Parisyan took him on. This will definitely test Parisyan's abilities to avoid the big shots.
Alves has unbelievable Muay Thai strikes, devastating leg kicks, and great striking even when he's backpedaling from danger. I'm going to pick Alves in the upset because of his destructive striking. He finishes fights in crushing fashion, and if Karo allows the fight to go into the later rounds, he has much less of a chance of defeating Parisyan.
Leland's Prediction: Thiago Alves via TKO/KO, Round 2
Alves has done something that is nearly impossible to do: he stopped Christ Lytle in his last fight. However, I don’t think he’s ready for “The Heat.” Karo is extremely durable and brings a relentless attack throughout the fight. In fact, he has only been stopped twice in his career, both by former lightweight champion Sean Sherk. Alves doesn’t have the wrestling to control Karo, and Karo will use his wild stand-up to close the distance and unleash his unique judo game. Fortunately for Karo, I think this is a fight he can actually finish. Expect a submission late in the fight, most likely by kimura.
Joe's Prediction: Karo Parisyan via submission, Round 3
Tim Boestch vs. Matt Hamill
This really isn't a tough call for me. Boetsch has the same if not better wrestling than Matt Hamill. He has much better striking than Hamill as well, and I can't see any area in which Hamill can really compete. Boestch will have an advantage on his feet with his brilliant kicking abilities and the use of the front kick has been effective. Hamill would have to show some much improved standup to really have a good chance. The Barbarian will prevail.
Leland's Prediction: Tim Boestch via TKO/KO, Round 1
Tim Boetsch has shown some good power and unique strikes in his only victory in the UFC. Boetsch dismantled David Heath with front kicks, punches, and an awesome throw. Hamill is coming into this fight after his split-decision robbery against Michael Bisping. I think Boetsch is a good underdog play here, because Hamill has show in the past that he will stand and strike first and use his wrestling secondary. If Hamill uses his wrestling prowess, this fight could turn out like Boestch's fight in the IFL against Vladimir Matyushenko. He was dominated by Matyushenko’s wrestling and controlled throughout the fight. I think Hamill’s propensity to stand and trade will be his downfall.
Joe's Prediction: Tim Boestch via TKO/KO, Round 2
Houston Alexander vs. James Irvin
This is a much tougher fight than anticipated because on paper, both guys love to throw huge bombs, and if they land, it's lights out. Houston has been a powerful force, but he beat Jardine and Sakara, and then was completely dominated by Silva. Has he really proven he can beat another aggressive striker with big power like Irvin?
Irvin has the power and aggressiveness to defeat Houston, and to be fair, Houston really hasn't shown unbelievable power in his hands. His knee downed Sakara, and it took nearly 10 -15 blows to finally down Jardine. Irvin has flash knockout power, and he could potentially expose Houston's ground game like Silva. He isn't great on the ground, but Houston was terrible against Thiago.
Upset pick here will be James Irvin. For some reason, I just can't believe Houston this time around. Silva exposed him, and Irvin's power could prove to be devastating. UPSET PICK, BABY!
Leland's Prediction: James Irvin via TKO/KO, Round 1
This should be an excellent kick-off fight for the Ultimate Fight Night. Both of these guys will stand and bang, and Irvin has shown in the past that he has some good striking power. However, he is also susceptible to being knocked out. Both guys have holes in their ground game, but I don’t think we’ll see the fight hit the mat unless someone is put there with strikes. I think Alexander is going to come out with something to prove, and he has shown that his power is absolutely devastating. If he can avoid the ground, this is his fight to lose.
Joe's Prediction: Houston Alexander via TKO/KO, Round 1
Quick Hits
Gray Maynard vs. Frankie Edgar: Frankie Edgar should be able to win this one in decisive fashion. He has excellent wrestling and some good striking skills as well as a frantic pace. Maynard has stated that he plans to sprawl and brawl with Edgar, but that's a huge mistake if it's true. Leland: Edgar via decision
Both of these fighters are excellent wrestlers; however Edgar has the better stand-up. Maynard has said in his pre-fight interviews that he plans on sprawling and brawling his way to victory. This is a terrible idea against Edgar. Maynard’s best chance to win this fight is to put Edgar on his back. I don’t think he can do that, but I don’t think Edgar will be able to fully commit to his strikes either. I think he’ll outpoint Maynard for a unanimous decision victory. Joe: Edgar via decision
Josh Neer vs. Din Thomas: Neer has been out in the boonies fighting subpar competition to supplement his record and checking account. This will be a step up in competition, and it'll Thomas recently off rehabing his destroyed knee from the Florian fight to take him on. Thomas should win this by submission later in the fight. Leland: Thomas via submission, Round 2
Neer is a good all-around fighter and can take a beating. He has shown in the past that unless you finish him completely, he is able to come back and pull of a victory with a slick submission or a barrage of strikes. Thomas has some good striking and is extremely long. He has a good submission game where he utilizes his long limbs. Thomas has the better striking and will finish Neer late in the fight. Joe: Thomas via submission, Round 3
Clay Guida vs. Sammy Schiavo: French Top Team has a horrible record in the States, and MMA in France has only recently been given recognition. Guida's pace is going to be a load for Schiavo as well, and he'll likely be more skilled. Leland: Guida via submission, Round 1
Guida is the favorite here for obvious reasons. He just can’t catch a break lately. Guida should dominate this fight and win by submission. All four of Schiavo’s losses have been by submission, and I don’t expect otherwise in this fight. Joe: Guida via submission, Round 2
George Sotiropoulos vs. Roman Mitichyan: I have to take George here. He hasn't been submitted so far in his career, and he's fought much better competition before. Roman could be a great bet though since his leg locks are devastating, but George is too well rounded to lose this. Leland: Sotiropoulos via submission, Round 2
Mitichyan has a decent ground game and has some nice leg locks. Sotiropoulous is the better all-around fighter and should finish Mitichyan on the ground late in the first or early in the second round. Joe: Sotiropoulos via submission, Round 2
Tommy Speer vs. Anthony Johnson: I want to pick Johnson here, but Speer has the better camp, and he'll have a much meaner ground and pound compared... hmmm... ya know what, I'm picking upset again. Why not? These fights really are toss ups. Leland: Johnson via TKO/KO, Round 1
Both of these guys are strong wrestlers with good ground-and-pound. Johnson has shown that he has some good power in his right hand, but Speer also has some good power in his hands. This fight could really go either way, but I think Speer is a little more well-rounded. He is training full time with Matt Hughes and should have improved his submission game since then. Joe: Speer via submission, Round 2
Nate Diaz vs. Kurt Pellegrino: Diaz has impressed me beyond belief in his last two performances. He was absolutely dominating, and showed much better skills in the standup than I expected. His decision making skills have proven to be much better than his brother's as well. I'm going with Diaz due to his high guard, decent striking, and I think he has the tools to make a HUGE upset happen. He's also a Diaz, which instantly gives him iron chin status. Leland: Diaz via submission, Round 2
This is a huge step up for Nate Diaz. Diaz has an above-average ground game and some decent power in his hands. Although it isn’t overly technical, he does have the ability to finish a fight with strikes. Pellegrino also has some good jiu-jitsu and showed in his previous fight with Alberto Crane that he can take a shot and come back and finish. I think Pellegrino wins this fight wherever it goes. I think Pellegrino will use his superior wrestling to keep Diaz on his feet and finish him with strikes in the third round. Joe: Pellegrino via TKO, Round 3
Manny Gamburyan vs. Jeff Cox: Manny is such a load for anyone, and his size makes it tough for opponents to submit him easily. His power on the ground will be devastating for Cox unless Cox catches him with a strike early. Look for Gamburyan to submit Cox in round 1. Leland: Gamburyan via submission, Round 1
Plain and simple, this is Manny’s fight to lose. Manny is better than Cox at any aspect of the game and he’ll finish this fight early. I’d look for a rematch with Nate Diaz in the near future. Joe: Gamburyan via submission, Round 1
Marcus Aurelio vs. Ryan Roberts: If Aurelio loses this, he should be thrown out of the promotion. His submission grappling will dwarf Roberts easily, and he's fairly good at avoiding big blows. Leland: Aurelio via submission, Round 1
This is another one-sided fight. Roberts has a tough match here with the veteran Aurelio. Aurelio will take Roberts down and finish him with a submission late in the first round. Joe: Aurelio via submission, Round 1