First off, let me issue another quick apology for not getting any articles up this week. Things have been especially crazy for Leland and I over the past few months, and things are finally settling down. I hope to continue posting on a semi-regular basis and hopefully we'll be back in full swing before long.
This weekend, UFC 88 heads to Atlanta, Georgia. I'm going to skip the usually fighter introductions because truthfully, those can be found anywhere on the net. Let's get to the real reason we write these articles, the predictions and analysis.
Chuck Liddell vs. Rashad Evans
Chuck Liddell comes into this fight after winning a unanimous decision over former PRIDE middleweight champion, Wanderlei Silva. Chuck and Wanderlei had an epic three round war that was nothing short of spectacular.
Rashad comes into this fight having won a controversial split-decision over Michael Bisping. He is the TUF 2 heavyweight winner and is undefeated in his career.
Simply put, Chuck destroys grapplers. It's really hard for me to find anyway for Rashad Evans to win this fight outside of a lucky punch or kick. Chuck has excellent takedown defense and is able to utilize good footwork and work angles to effectively counter punch his way to victory. Rashad has one benefit on his side. He trains with Greg Jackson and his teammate, Keith Jardine, was able to defeat Liddell. The problem for Rashad is that he doesn't possess the leg kicks needed to keep Chuck at bay. I believe this fight will look similar to Chuck and Tito's two fights with Rashad looking to shoot sporadically and getting pounded on the feet.
Joe's Prediction: Chuck Liddell via T/KO round 2.
Rich Franklin vs. Matt Hamill
Rich Franklin looks to make his return to the light heavyweight division against former TUF contestant Matt Hamill. Hamill is a Division III wrestler that has show good power inside the Octagon. I have went back and forth on this fight a little bit only because of Franklin's jump in weight. Hamill will be decidedly bigger and will most likely have the power advantage. Rich will want to keep this fight on the feet and try to take advantage of Hamill's sloppy stand up defense. Hamill has big power in his punches and pushes a relentless pace. He always comes forward, but the thing that scares me is that sometimes he drops his hands to his sides and swings looping punches. If Franklin can keep this fight on the feet and avoid Hammil's takedowns, which is no small task I might add, then he can definitely win this fight. Hamill needs to relentlessly push the pace and keep Rich on his heels. When he sees an opportunity, he needs to put Rich on his back. From there, Hamill must have improved on his top control to keep Rich neutralized. I don't think he'll be able to do it, and I think this will be a closer fight than most expect.
Joe's Prediction: Rich Franklin via Unanimous Decision.
Dan Henderson vs. Rousimar Palhares
Dan Henderson comes into this fight after losing both of his PRIDE/UFC unification title bouts. He suffered a unanimous decision loss to Quinton "Rampage" Jackson, and was submitted in the second round by Anderson Silva. Rousimar Palhares was an unknown commodity heading into his first fight in the UFC. Palhares easily dispatched veteran Ivan Salaverry with an armbar in the very first round. Henderson has shown in the past that he's no easy feat to submit. He has been in there with both Noguiera brothers and had multiple submission escapes before they were both finally able to catch him with armbars. Palhares has shown a great ground game in his fights and is a leg lock specialist. I expected the UFC to groom him a bit before he was forced to step up in competition but with the lack of competitors for Anderson Silva, it looks like they are moving him right along. Palhares is going to be at a disadvantage on the feet and will try to get Henderson to the ground. The problem there is that Henderson has a dynamite right hand, and is an Olympic caliber Greco Roman wrestler. It's going to be hard for Palhares to close the distance on Dan, and it's going to be even harder for him to get this fight to the mat. I think Palhares has a bright future in the UFC, I just don't think he's ready for a step up in competition yet.
Joe's Prediction: Dan Henderson via Unanimous Decision
Martin Kampann vs. Nate Marquardt
Kampmann makes his long awaited return to the Octagon after suffering a serious knee injury. Marquardt returns from a disappointing decision loss to Thales Leites after Marquardt was deducted points for hitting Letites in the back of the head. Kampann is a good muay thai/kickboxer with a pretty underrated ground game. The problem for him is that Marquardt has better grappling and knows how to utilize his strikes to get the fight where he needs it to be. I like Kampmann, but I don't think he'll be ready for Marquardt's attack. Look for Marquardt to close the gap early and utilize his superior wrestling to get Kampmann to the mat. There, he will control Kampmann for the majority of the fight. In my eyes, this looks to be a snoozefest.
Joe's Prediction: Nate Marquardt via Unanimous Decision
Quick Hits
Dong Hyun Kim vs. Matt Brown: Kim is a Korean superstar in the making and has all the tools to be a successful marketing tool for the UFC's expansion abroad. He is really leaps and bounds better than Matt Brown, and this will be a good fight for him to be introduced to the casual fan. Kim easily dispatched of Jason Tan in his last fight and Brown, while tough, will have no answer wherever this fight goes. Joe's Prediction: Dong Hyun Kim via T/KO round 1.
Thiago Tavares vs. Kurt Pellegrino: This is a tough fight for me to call, and I feel the current betting line is way off. Pellegrino comes into this fight after being submitted by Nate Diaz, while Tavares enters the cage coming off of his first knockout loss. Pellegrino is a good wrestler and has a black belt in BJJ. Pellegrino also has some decent striking. His problem recently has been his inability to keep the pace for an entire fight and to avoid making costly mistakes. Tavares looked promising in his first two fights in the UFC, but was set back with a knockout loss to Matt Wiman. I expect the training the Pellegrino has been doing with the Florian camp to have improved his cardio issues and he pulls off a huge (by the gambling books) upset. Joe's Prediction: Pellegrino via T/KO round 3.
Tim Boetsch vs. Michael Patt: Boetsch finally has the opportunity to go through an entire camp to prepare for a fight. His last two fights inside the Octagon were taken on short notice and Boetsch looked good in both of them. Although he lost to Hamill in his last fight, Boetsch will come out and show the UFC what he can do given the proper time to train. Joe's Prediction: Tim Boetsch via T/KO round 1.
Jason Lambert vs. Jason MacDonald: Lambert is looking to rebound off of his back-to-back knockout losses to Luis Cane and Wilson Gouviea. You'd also have to go back to 2001 to find the last time Lambert was submitted. Although he is 1-3 in his last four fights and this is his debut at 185lbs., I believe he has a good chance for an upset here. MacDonald is taking this fight as a replacement and recently suffered a submission loss to Demian Maia. The thing that bothers me about MacDonald is his lack of game plan. He always seems to take fights where you wouldn't want them. His last fight with Maia is a perfect example of this. He was the one who shot for a takedown on arguably one of the best BJJ players in MMA today. MacDonald doesn't have great wrestling and I think he loses this fight on the feet. Joe's Prediction: Jason Lambert via T/KO round 2.
Ryo Chonan vs. Roan Carneiro: Chonan is finally returning to the Octagon after a disappointing, and boring, decision loss to Karo Parisyan. This is a rematch of a previous fight in which Chonan won via doctor's stoppage due to cut. I think this is a pretty even match and I expect Chonan to pull off another victory. Joe's Prediction: Ryo Chona via Unanimous Decision.
This should be an exciting night of fights and what looks to be a couple of lose or go home matches. Drop your predictions off in the comments section and let me know what you think of our predictions.