Some of the analysis of the UFC 85 card going around has been interesting to say the least. One of the better matchups at the event that many bloggers and analysts are concentrating on is Marcus Davis vs. Mike Swick. While Swick has had a great career with an 11-2 record, he's been fairly lackluster in his recent performances. His last fight with Josh Burkman was considered to be a very disappointing main event for UFC Fight Night 12, and I'd have to agree with that section of the fanbase. It was terrible.
Davis, on the other hand, has had an impressive run racking up a 14-3 record with 11 straight wins. It's not only his fighting style that has improved, but his overall power, strength, and physique have improved dramatically. How do both these guys stack up? How do their records compare?
Swick has a bit more experience against tougher competition while Davis has been in some wars for short lengths of time that ended in him crushing his opponent with either a big blow or punishing ground and pound. He isn't bad in the submission game either. Both guys have some good standup skills with Davis having a boxing pedigree in his background. Swick had some impressive KO's early in his career, but hasn't let the hands go as of late. We could, however, see a standup war in this one.
A lot of fans have been emailing about whether Swick can win this fight, and how he should be the favorite. I'm going to go out on the limb here and believe that Marcus Davis will be a monster in this fight and win decisively. The reasoning behind my pick is fairly simple.
What does Mike Swick offer in this matchup? On the ground, Swick is going to have problems with Davis's power. Davis seems to be getting stronger for every fight, and I can only imagine him coming in with the same raw power we've seen from him in the past. I'm hesitant to believe Swick can manage the guillotine on Davis, but it's a possibility.
In the standup war, Swick will likely have some reach on Davis, but Davis will have the boxing background coupled with huge power. Ask Jess Liaudin about it. I'm more inclined to pick explosiveness over reach, and I think Davis will be very formidable in the standup game. Add in the fact that Swick seems to freeze in the face of power, ie. Josh Burkman.
Davis should win this one, and as a slight underdog, I think he's a decent bet as well, although it's not a great bet. Davis stands at around -100 right now with Swick edging him at -130. Can Davis pull this one off? I believe he can.