The UFC makes its debut in Canada with an already sold out event in Montreal at the Bell Centre on Saturday night. The featured bout matches up Matt “The Terror” Serra against Georges “Rush” St. Pierre in a highly anticipated rematch of their UFC 69 battle that saw Matt Serra upset St. Pierre. Rich Franklin will make his return to the Octagon after his second loss to UFC Middleweight champion Anderson Silva. He'll take on a venerable Travis Lutter who will test Franklin's submission defense. Other bouts scheduled include Canadian Kalib Starnes vs. Nate “The Rock” Quarry, Mac Danzig vs. Mark Bocek, Michael Bisping vs. Charles McCarthy, and Jason MacDonald vs. Joe “El Dirte” Doerkson, along with a slew of undercard bouts that are sure to entertain us. Let's take a look at the card.
Main Event: Georges “Rush” St. Pierre vs. Matt “The Terror” Serra
UFC Welterweight title bout
Oddly enough, Georges St. Pierre comes into this bout as a huge favorite while Serra once again remains the heavy underdog. St. Pierre's destruction of Matt Hughes at UFC 79 on short notice was stunning in the capacity of being unbelievably dominating. The fact that he can outwrestle any fighter in the weight class is a testament to his training regiment and work ethic. Wrestlers with plenty of credentials to back up their “smack” continue to fall to St. Pierre's superior skills. Pierre also has dynamic striking that is unparalleled in the division, but he has shown weakness in the standup at times, namely against his opponent, Matt Serra.
Serra's abilities are underrated by many fans of the sport. He has very good jiu-jitsu skills on the ground, and his strength can become a huge factor as the fight progresses. He's very tough to defeat by a finish, and he's never been submitted in MMA competition. I firmly believe it'll be a good test for St. Pierre if it becomes a chess match on the ground. The x-factor is Serra's heavy hands. He has some decent striking skills for a smaller welterweight, and with power behind them, we've seen what they can do against St. Pierre.
Bottom line: St. Pierre should win this fight within the first three rounds. He has great power, athleticism, dynamic striking, range, reach, and is coming off a stunning performance against Matt Hughes. Serra definitely has a shot on his feet, but I don't believe he can submit St. Pierre on the floor. Serra has great submission defense, so I'd stray away from St. Pierre defeating him there, but I do believe he can work some wrestling skills to open up the striking.
Leland's Prediction: Georges St. Pierre via TKO, Round 3
Rich “Ace” Franklin vs. Travis Lutter
Rich Franklin is looking to get back on the track back to another title shot. How many title shots can one have after being destroyed the previous two tries? We don't know, but Franklin is still a formidable opponent for anyone trying to make a run at Anderson Silva. He has good power, decent striking, big blow ground and pound, and he's not half bad on the ground either. He's a well-rounded fighter, but he isn't great in any one thing.
Lutter, on the other hand, is a great jiu-jitsu fighter on the ground, but he lacks the powerful hands that Franklin possesses. The biggest problem for Lutter is getting through Franklin's submission defense, a defense that has helped Franklin remain unbeaten by a submission throughout his 25 fight career.
Franklin should take this one. He has fantastic submission defense, and has the hands to defeat Lutter on his feet or on the ground. Franklin has taken on great grapplers in the past, and has always came through with his crushing ground and pound.
Leland's Prediction: Rich Franklin via TKO, Round 2
Michael Bisping vs. Charles “Chainsaw” McCarthy
One of the more interesting matchups of the evening pits jiu-jitsu artist Charles McCarthy against British standout Michael Bisping. Bisping hasn't shown us a vast skillset in his previous UFC fights, but he does possess some decent cardio, technical boxing, and an able submission defense coupled with good ground and pound.
McCarthy is a very good jiu-jitsu fighter with the ability to transition well to different submission holds repeatedly throughout the course of a fight. He looks to have some decent defensive tactics, and Bisping isn't exactly aggressive until he lands something big. If McCarthy can get Bisping to the floor early, it could spell disastrous problems for “The Count”.
I have to go with Bisping here, but I strongly believe McCarthy is a great bet here. He has an active guard and always looks for the submission. I think Bisping has good enough submission defense, cardio, and technical standup skills to win this one. He'll also be much taller and bigger from the cut to 185 than McCarthy.
Leland's Prediction: Michael Bisping via TKO, Round 2
Kalib Starnes vs. Nate Quarry
Kalib Starnes surely doesn't get the credit he deserves. Although he was defeated on the Ultimate Fighter, he has kept his reputation as being a venerable opponent in the 185 pound weight class. He has world class black belt jiu-jitsu skills on the ground, and he has technical enough standup to land some hard shots. He's always a gamer in his fights as well, and definitely will take a beating. He's only been stopped once by actual strikes and that was against a top middleweight in Yushin Okami.
Quarry is coming back from a near career ending back injury, but he did take on Pete Sell in his return fight that ended in a memorable third round knockout for Nate. He has powerful hands, and should be a very tough test for Starnes in the standup game. On the ground, Quarry hasn't been extensively tested, but Starnes definitely has the advantage there. It should make for a very good battle.
Leland's Prediction Kalib Starnes via submission, Round 2
Quick Hits
Mac Danzig vs. Mark Bocek: Danzig should be able to win this one easily. Bocek is 5-1, and is a very good grappling fighter, but Danzig's experience and skill in MMA is so much better than what Mark has to offer. Danzig via submission, Round 2
Alan Belcher vs. Jason Day: I'm taking Belcher in this one. He has great striking skills, and his Muay Thai striking was impressive against Starnes. With heavy hands and kicks, Day could go lights out, but he won't be an easy opponent. Day also possesses knockout power, and it could make for a surprise matchup. Belcher via TKO/KO, Round 1
Jason MacDonald vs. Joe Doerkson: We could be in store for a decent matchup in this one, but MacDonald possesses some good jiu-jitsu skills to counter Doerkson, and he definitely has the advantage on his feet. I think he'll end this one via TKO. MacDonald via TKO, Round 2
Demian Maia vs. Ed Herman: Herman impressed me against Doerkson, but Maia may be too much for him to handle. His jiu-jitsu is very active and he has great transitional skills in the guard. He also seems to have some very good takedowns that stray from the lazy clinching style we see from many other jiu-jitsu fighters. Jensen was much bigger than Maia, yet he still dominated. Maia via submission, Round 1
Sam Stout vs. Rich Clementi: Stout has been doing some training at Xtreme Couture recently, which will definitely give him a good edge using his sprawl and avoiding submission on the ground. He has some great standup striking, and will prove to be a problem for Clementi, who has problems in the striking game. Stout via decision
Kuniyoshi Hironaka vs. Jonathan Goulet: Hironaka isn't well known by the casual fanbase, but he has some good jiu-jitsu skills on the ground, but I'm not overly impressed with his striking. He has some good defense though, and that may make it tough for Goulet to work any striking. Hironaka will be better on the ground though, I'll take him in that context. Hironaka via submission, Round 2
Brad Morris vs. Cain Velasquez: Too much hype around Velasquez for me to pick against him. He supposedly has great skills and is the future of the division, but the minimal tape I've seen on him hasn't suggested that. His opponents didn't really test him though. Velasquez via TKO, Round 1