UFC 80: Our Ridiculously In-depth Preview: Upsets Likely

by LR 1/17/2008 12:06:00 PM

After a highly entertaining event at the end of 2007 for the UFC, they will start things back up on Saturday with UFC 80: Rapid Fire from Newcastle, England. The event will feature the Lightweight championship title bout between Joe "Daddy" Stevenson and the rejuvenated B.J. Penn. Penn will come in as a favorite after easily demolishing Jens Pulver in his previous bout at the TUF Season 5 Finale. After a long wait for the title picture to unfold, Penn is now looking to prove that he is training harder and has refocused his energy to being the best in mixed martial arts. Fabricio Werdum will make his return to the cage after a lackluster performance against Andrei Arlovski at UFC 70: Nations Collide. Werdum has since moved to the renowned Chute Box camp to improve his striking and overall technique in the cage. He'll take on the former #1 contender in Gabriel "Napao" Gonzaga who is fresh off a loss to Randy Couture. Let's take a brief look at each matchup, and we'll give you our predictions in the process.

Main Event: Joe Stevenson vs. B.J. Penn
Lightweight Championship Bout

Joe Stevenson will have his work cut out for him in this matchup. B.J. Penn has been renowned for being one of the best fighters pound for pound in the world for many years. His only knock has been his inability to go deep into fights. His cardio training was his most obvious flaw that contributed to that inability and opponents managed to squeeze out victories against him because of it. He'll have to show up in phenomenal shape with his gas tank full in order to take out the pitbull in Joe Stevenson.

On paper, Stevenson doesn't seem to have an overall advantage in any department. B.J. has been known to have very good striking ability, and has put guys out in the past using just his hands. Penn also has some of the best jiu-jitsu we've seen in the cage, and his flexibility only makes it even tougher for opponents to work him on the ground. Again, the one area in which Stevenson may hold an advantage is the cardio area. Stevenson has solid wrestling abilities with some good submission work to counter B.J., especially if he grows tired.

The big problem here for Joe is that he really doesn't offer much in any area of the fight. He shouldn't want to trade with B.J. for very long unless he can catch an aggressive Penn early. The ground is where Stevenson can dominate if he can get on top of Penn, but Penn's jiu-jitsu would likely cause Stevenson to be on the defensive, even while Penn is on his back.

This fight will come down to cardio. If Stevenson can make this 5 round battle last longer and longer as it goes on, he has a much better chance of putting Penn out for good. Penn will probably want to end this within a 3 round limit before pushing his cardio to the max. Penn's jiu-jitsu alone is scary enough to put him on top in this matchup. Stevenson is definitely a good bet though.

Leland's Prediction: B.J. Penn via submission, Round 3

I’m tired of starting my prediction of every B.J. Penn fight with, “If B.J. comes in shape, no one can beat him.” I believe B.J. Penn will come in shape, and I think he will show why many people, including myself, feel he is pound-for-pound one of the best fighters in the world.

B.J. has tremendous flexibility and uses it to his advantage to avoid takedowns. He has dynamic striking and a solid chin, as proven in his fights against Pulver, Machida and GSP.  Of course, his jiu-jitsu is also off the charts. The only knock against B.J. is his cardio. He has shown a tendency in the past to fade in the later rounds. I feel that for once, B.J. has learned his lesson and will be able to take Stevenson out.

Joe Stevenson is a very underrated fighter. Joe has a solid wrestling base, good striking, and an underrated jiu-jitsu game. Stevenson is going to have to control B.J. in this fight and set the pace of the fight. If he lets B.J. control the pace of the fight, it will be a short night for Joe Daddy. The problem for Joe in this fight is he doesn’t have a lot of ways to win. His striking isn’t crisp enough to hurt B.J., he doesn’t have the superior jiu-jitsu game, and I think he’s going to have a tough time taking Penn down. The best bet for Joe is to clinch with Penn and use that to set up his takedown. From there he should look to control top position and work some ground-and-pound. He’s going to have to be on the defensive, because B.J. can take your back at some weird angles. However, if he’s too defensive, the fight is going to get stood up. 

Joe's Prediction: B.J. Penn via TKO, Round 2
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Fabricio Werdum vs. Gabriel Gonzaga

This is a fight that we should be excited about for a few reasons. First, Werdum and Gonzaga are near the top of the heap in the Heavyweight division. Although Arlovski did defeat Werdum, his contract problems have relegated him to the blacklist by the UFC. Werdum, on the other hand, has improved his training by joining Chute Box, and is now in line to be a major player in the contendership after the Nogueira vs. Sylvia battle goes down.

Another reason you should be interested is that this is a rematch of a battle that happened back in 2003. Gonzaga was much smaller in those days, and Werdum took advantage with some slick ground work that found him mounted on Gonzaga. Gonzaga looks much different these days, and he has much more skills to pull from his bag as well in the four years time between matchups.

Stylistically, this looks to be fairly even in some aspects. On the ground, both fighters are unbelievable grapplers. Werdum and Gonzaga both hold black belts in jiu-jitsu, although Werdum has been known to be the more decorated grappler. On the feet, Gonzaga should have the edge, but there in lies the x-factor, Werdum's new training at Chute Box. He's been extensively working on his Muay Thai and boxing skills at the gym, and Chute Box is notoriously known for producing prolific strikers who are aggressive, something Werdum needed badly. Could we see an exciting, new Fabricio Werdum? He seems to think so.

Leland's Prediction: Fabricio Werdum via unanimous decision

This is a very intriguing match-up to me. We all know that Werdum defeated Gonzaga back in 2003 at a Jungle Fight event. However, both fighters have improved dramatically. Werdum is coming off of a lackluster decision loss to Andrei Arlovski, and Gonzaga is heading into this bout after his loss to Randy Couture for the heavyweight title.

While both guys have excellent grappling, Werdum is the more technical of the two on the ground. Werdum has a good ability to avoid strikes, but his striking leaves something to be desired. He has some good kicks, but as seen against Arlovski, his ability to put strikes together is limited. The question in Werdum’s game is going to come down to how much the training at Chute Box has improved his game.

Gonzaga is a pretty well rounded fighter. He has a good jiu-jitsu game and has some pretty decent striking. He likes to throw one-two combinations down the middle, and seems to have turned up his aggressiveness lately. In the fight with Couture, he showed a pretty good takedown defense, and was even able to work back to the feet after one takedown. My worry with Gonzaga is that he fell in love with the high kick. He threw it multiple times against Couture, and that’s a pretty good opening for Werdum to dodge and put Gonzaga down. 

Joe's Prediction: Fabricio Werdum via unanimous decision
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Jason Lambert vs. Wilson Gouveia

Jason Lambert hasn't seen the light of day in the cage since March of last year, but he'll finally meet Wilson Gouveia on Saturday. The two were supposed to brawl at UFC 76, but Gouveia suffered an injury that sidelined the fight. Lambert stands to gain some ground with a win. His last fight was a solid win over "Babalu" Sobral at UFC 68, not bad for a guy that many fans have forgotten about. Lambert will be looking to change that.

Gouveia is looking to maintain his current three-fight winning streak with a good win over Lambert. He hasn't fought the competition that Lambert has beat in the past, but he could prove his worth with a win here. With some excellent training partners down at ATT in Florida, Gouveia should be well-prepared for this bout, although his ability to take strikes has hurt him in the past. Most of his losses have come by TKO, and that's exactly the type of fighter that Jason Lambert is, a punishing wrestler who loves to pound opponents into the ground.

Gouveia will be looking to prove to the fans that his injuries are healed and that he's back. His jiu-jitsu black belt should come in handy, but Lambert's power will be a big problem if he can secure top control. This fight has excitement written all over it just for the pure fact that it's a wrestling pounder vs. a grappling black belt.

Leland's Prediction: Jason Lambert via TKO (Strikes), Round 2

This fight has the makings of being a show stealer. Lambert is looking to improve on his knockout win over Babalu and Gouveia is looking to maintain his current winning streak.

Lambert was really on a roll until he ran into Rashad Evans. Evans was able to work Lambert to the ground, mount him and finish him with strikes. A lot of people forget that Lambert was on a pretty impressive winning streak until he ran into Evans. He had won eight fights in a row over the likes of Travis Wiuff, Terry Martin, Brandon Lee Hinkle and Marvin Eastman. Lambert has surprising power, and can do some damage on the feet or the ground. He showed great patience and submission defense against Babalu, even though Babalu had his back most of the first round.

Gouveia has shown great heart in the UFC. He fought a good fight against Keith Jardine until he got ate up by Jardine’s viscous kicks. Gouveia is going to want to get top control on Lambert. I think that’s really the place for him to win the fight. Gouveia has a propensity to be stopped from strikes, and that’s exactly what Lambert is going to do. If Gouveia can obtain top control, his chances to win this fight are good. However, I don’t think he’ll be able to do it, as Lambert’s wrestling is too good.

Joe's Prediction: Jason Lambert via TKO, Round 3 
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Jess Liaudin vs. Marcus Davis

I've seen Jess Liaudin fight on multiple occassions, even through his horrendous losing streak in Cage Rage back in '03-'04. There is one prevalent flaw in his game, and that is his inability to avoid being pounded into the canvas at will. Don't get me wrong, Liaudin shows up to fight and brings it with the best of 'em, but he endangers himself in many of his bouts to being pummeled. The good thing for Liaudin is that he's coming in on a five-win streak, and looks to knock off a surging Marcus Davis. He's also seemed to improve significantly, although it's been against lesser competition.

My concern for Liaudin, however, is that Marcus Davis is exactly the type of fighter that Liaudin may get overwhelmed by. Davis is stronger and stronger in nearly every performance, and he has some superb wrestling skills that continue to get better and better. More power equals more of a chance to clip his opponent for a huge knockout, and more power also equals more of a chance to escape submissions. Davis looks too strong in this fight, and I'll have to go with him to win again.

Leland's Prediction: Marcus Davis via TKO, Round 2

I don’t know about you, but I love watching Marcus Davis fight. The guy has come a long way from his stint on “The Ultimate Fighter.”

Davis is a former professional boxer who has some good power and very good technical striking. He has also improved his ground game exponentially. I think he’ll present problems for Laudin on any level, and unless there is some sort of fluke, Davis should take this fight. Laudin will need to set up his strikes from the outside, and stay away from the pocket against Davis. I just think Davis is too strong for Laudin and I think he’ll overwhelm him with strikes late in round 1.

Joe's Prediction: Marcus Davis via TKO, Round 1
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Quick Hits: Other Matchups

Alessio Sakara vs. James Lee

This is a classic matchup of a submission fighter vs. a standup striker. The only real problem here is that Sakara has some serious problems defending takedowns and somehow blatantly believes he can stand with nearly anybody in the business and still win even though it's obvious where the fight will go. Sakara has better standup, but Lee has never been TKO'd or KO'd. He's going to avoid the boxing and head for the floor where he should win.

Leland's Prediction: James Lee via submission, Round 1

I don’t know what the odds makers are thinking about this fight, but I think I may have to lay some money down on James Lee. Sakara has show in the past that he has some ok striking, but his ground game is practically non-existent. Lee on the other hand is a submission specialist who will make short work of Sakara. This is Sakara’s last fight light heavyweight, and I don’t know how much longer the UFC will keep him around. He’s nothing more than a gatekeeper, and I don’t think he presents problems for any of the top contenders even at middleweight.

Joe's Prediction: James Lee via submission, Round 1
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Kendall Grove vs. Jorge Rivera

I actually love Rivera in this matchup. Grove has never impressed me, and this is my chance to finally redeem myself by picking him over Patrick Cote. The biggest difference in these fighters is their track records. Rivera has had success against some grapplers and even other standup fighters like himself. He has knockout power in his hands and has the ability to avoid the submission. Rivera loves to work the clinch, which may be a problem, but I'm willing to take that chance. I think he's a great upset pick here, even with Grove's reach advantage.

Leland's Prediction: Jorge Rivera via decision

I mulled over this decision the longest for any fight on this card. I agree with Leland, and think Rivera has a very good shot to win this fight. Rivera has faced some stiff competition in the past, and has proven he can hang with some pretty good fighters (Rich Franklin, Anderson Silva, David Loiseau). Although he lost to Silva and Franklin, he showed a pretty good game.

Grove, on the other hand, is coming into this fight after being knocked out by Patrick Cote. Grove is very tall, but has yet to figure out how to use that reach advantage. He tends to slouch over and match his opponent’s height. His striking is average, but he does have a pretty good ground game. Rivera has shown that he can hang with grapplers and strikers alike, so I look for him to pull off the victory here.

Joe's Prediction:  Jorge Rivera via unanimous decision
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Sam Stout vs. Per Eklund

Maybe I'm making up for lost upset picks in the past, but I think an one-dimensional Sam Stout is a great fight for Per Eklund. The Swede has some great submission game, but lacks the impressive competition. He does have a loss against Tatsuya Kawajiri, who is considered to be in the top 10 as far as Lightweights go. Can Eklund prove that Stout's striking can be neutralized? I'm going to take another chance.

Leland's Prediction: Per Eklund via submission, Round 1 <--- Ballsy, I know.

I had to dig up some tape on Eklund, and he looks like he could shock Sam Stout here. Stout has some great striking skills and has a chin of granite. The problem is, his ground game is severely lacking. If you watch his fight with Kenny Florian, you’ll understand. Florian was able to take Stout down easily and was able to sink in the rear naked choke. If Eklund comes in with a smart game plan, that is, avoiding strikes and getting the fight to the mat, he could very well win this fight. The only thing that worries me about Eklund is that he looked a little small in his tape. Stout will have the obvious size advantage, but I think Eklund still takes this.

Joe's Prediction: Per Eklund via submission, Round 1
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Antoni Hardonk vs. Colin Robinson

Both heavyweights haven't been impressive in the UFC, combining for a 1-3 record overall in the promotion. Hardonk trains out of Vos Gym in Holland and is primarily a kickboxer. Robinson is mainly a brawler with some ground and pound skills. The main question here is whether Hardonk can actually ward off being on his back unlike his various other bouts. He has great trainers, but his problem has always been his inability to stop the top control attacks. I think Hardonk squeezes out a decision.

Leland's Prediction: Antoni Hardonk via Decision

This is a fight that is really uninteresting to me. Hardonk showed some promise early with his rare leg kick knockout of Sherman Pendergrast. Since then, he lost a unanimous decision to an out-of-shape Justin McCully and was completely dominated on the ground by Frank Mir. Hardonk has shown an improved ground game, but I think he’ll try to keep this one on the feet. Robinson will look to do the same, but against the kick boxer, he’ll be in some trouble. Robinson was stopped by Eddie Sanchez in his only appearance, and I think Hardonk stops him as well.

Joe's Prediction: Antoni Hardonk via TKO, Round 2
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Paul Taylor vs. Paul Kelly

I'm going to have to go with Taylor in this fight. Taylor has more quality wins over better competition, he's got power and skill, and he has a decent submission game when he tries to implement it. Kelly looks to be a British standout at 6-0, but hasn't fought good competition in those wins. I haven't seen Kelly fight, but after Taylor's near win against Davis, I can't help but pick him in this fight.

Leland's Prediction: Paul Taylor via TKO, Round 1

Paul Taylor looked impressive in his fight against Marcus Davis. Although he lost, he showed some good stand-up and was able to floor Davis with a well-timed high kick. Kelly comes into this fight a perfect 6-0, but I think he’ll have some problems with Taylor’s experience. Taylor has fought the more established competition, and I think he hands Kelly his first loss.

Joe's Prediction: Paul Taylor via TKO, Round 2

Final Thoughts

Although I was a little ambitious with my picks, I think we'll see a good number of slight upset wins from some guys that the casual fanbase hasn't seen before. There are some very good fighters on the card from the area, and the UFC may be trying to build up a bigger fanbase in the region. Hopefully, those regional fighters put up some big wins and give the UK faithful something to cheer about.



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July 25. 2008 11:05


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