UFC 78: Validation Preview and Predictions

by LR 11/15/2007 5:06:00 AM

Bisping being taken down... NBC SportsUFC 78: Validation will roll into the Prudential Arena in Newark, New Jersey on Saturday night. The card features a main event between two TUF winners, Rashad Evans and Michael Bisping. In a light heavyweight matchup, Houston Alexander will be looking to continue his domination of the division by taking on a heavy handed Thiago Silva. Spencer Fisher also looks to keep a good thing going in an explosive battle with Frankie Edgar. The card also features a number of good undercard matchups that should either excite the crowd or bore the fans to death, we'll see who shows up to win. Let's take an in-depth look into what many consider the UFC's weakest card to date, but take a closer look and you may find some gems.

Rashad Evans vs. Michael “The Count” Bisping

Arguably, both of these fighters could definitely cut down to Middleweight and make the division worth a damn, but instead we will see both fighters try to make a run at moving themselves up toward the upper heap in the Light Heavyweight division. Rashad comes into the bout sporting a 10-0-1 record, but has yet to fight any of the top competition. His last bout against Tito Ortiz caused a small controversy due to Ortiz grabbing the fence causing the score for the round to be a draw. Ortiz won the first round 10-9 and lost the last round 9-10 to Evans. It caused the fight to end in a draw and a promise of a rematch. It's rumored that the winner of this matchup will fight Ortiz.

Bisping is also coming off a controversial fight that is considered one of the worst decisions by a judging crew in MMA this year. Many fans believe Matt Hamill won their matchup at UFC 75. Bisping also comes into this matchup with an undefeated record of 14-0, but like Evans, hasn't fought top competition.

This battle will be a matchup of conflicting styles to an extent. Bisping definitely would rather stand and Rashad seems to like to work the standup enough to set up his wrestling abilities. Bisping showed some good boxing technique against Hamill and seems to have improved his standup significantly, but he showed hesitation in running through Hamill because he was a wrestler. We could see the same thing from Bisping in this battle unless he somehow works on being aggressive against a wrestler. Obviously, he wasn't comfortable in his abilities enough to get into the zone of a wrestler in his last bout, but Hamill didn't try to do much when taking down Bisping. Bisping also had zero takedown defense against Hamill. It should definitely be a gauge for Bisping to learn from. Evans has some decent standup with a combination of kicks and punching. His defense is okay, but his wrestling ability will be the skill that could propel him to win this fight.

My pick for this fight will be Rashad Evans based on the pure fact that Bisping's sprawl was non-existent in his last bout. I believe Evans will shoot his hips and put Bisping to the floor pretty quickly, and I don't think Bisping has the massive power to knockout Evans very quickly. Bisping has knocked fighters out, but in the UFC, he remains cautious. He doesn't want to overextend his stride and get caught or get taken down quickly. Rashad doesn't really have finishing power, so I'll take him by decision

Pick: Rashad Evans by Unanimous Decision.

Houston Alexander vs. Thiago Silva Alexander handling Sakara... NBC Sports

Houston is somewhat of a sensation in the UFC currently. He came in to fight Keith Jardine as a late replacement likely to lose to Jardine and ended up spectacularly knocking him out instantly. His raw power is uncanny in providing him knockouts. His last bout against Alessio Sakara proved to be a quick fight and wasn't entirely a test to Alexander's abilities. Alessio came out before the battle stating he was going to try to fight with Houston's strength because he felt he had a better boxing game. Bad idea playing into Houston's strength. Will Thiago have a better gameplan?

Silva, if you hadn't noticed, is a Chute Box fighter, hence the last name. Like many of the Chute Box fighters, he possesses some outstanding Muay Thai skills and a good ju-jitsu base on the ground. Silva is the type of opponent the UFC looks to be setting up for Houston to punch out. Although Silva has some great standup, Houston's power could be a potential problem for Silva. Interestingly enough, many people said that about Tomasz Drwal. I found it odd how people picked Drwal who seemed to have horrible standup, but a ton of power. Drwal's looping punches were evident in many of the fights leading up to the bout and it almost seemed as if he was just swinging for the fence with no regard as to how he would defend the counter. Silva took advantage. Houston seems to have a better gameplan for strikers though. If he can't catch you standing, he will catch you in the clinch. Silva has had some impressive battles, but I believe Alexander's strength will be no match. The X factor is Alexander's cardio. Will he be able to continue battle if it hits the second round?

Pick: Houston Alexander via first round (T)KO.

Frank “The Answer” Edgar vs. Spencer “The King” Fisher

A battle of a couple of bangers, this fight looks to have the makings of a great back and forth battle. Fisher has experience on his side sporting a veteran record of 20-3, Edgar is fairly new with a 7-0 record. I'll make this a brief breakdown since I'm rather interested in seeing how this fight will pan out because it's a fairly tough battle to determine. Both fighters are very well-rounded, tough as nails, and have had some very good success. Edgar took out Bocek recently at UFC 73 and a very tough Tyson Griffin at UFC 67. Fisher is coming off an exciting battle against Sam Stout at UFN 10.

This is going to come down to who can outstrike their opponent before they decide to hit the mat, if they do at all. Fisher is unbelievably tough to beat and has only been stopped once, the other two losses being by decision. Edgar seems to also be the type of fighter who has a tendency to go the distance much like Fisher has done recently. I believe Fisher's experience, toughness, and overall ability to recover should push him through on this one.

Pick: Spencer Fisher via Unanimous Decision.

Karo “The Heat” Parisyan vs. Ryo “Piranha” Chonan

Finally, Karo will fight again and try to make a claim that he deserves a damn title shot already. He comes into this fight at 17-5 with a long layover after his fight with Josh Burkman at UFC 71 in which he made Burkman miss haymakers nearly the entire fight. Pariysan is strictly a judo fighter who loves to put down the hip toss in his matches and dominate his opponent with ground work and fleet footedness. He isn’t overly powerful and has in fact won 7 out of his last 9 fights via decision. To be perfectly honest, I’m not a huge fan of Pariysan for the mere fact that I believe he will get overwhelmed at the top of the heap. He seems to have a great way of avoiding damage, but can’t deal out enough damage to stop an opponent, leaving open the possibility of being beaten in later rounds. Will he be able to stop the “Piranha” from defeating him? I believe he can.

Chonan is a veteran ex-PRIDE fighter with a background in judo. He is most famous for being completely dominated by Anderson Silva in their PRIDE Shockwave 2004 matchup, but somehow pulling off one of the most difficult submissions in the flying scissor heel hook. Quite an impressive fight. Chonan has problems with power as evident in his losses to Dan Henderson and Phil Baroni, and he’s susceptible to the better submission fighters as evident in his loss to Paulo Filho. He was beaten inside the first round by the Brazilian ju-jitsu expert. Although he’s taken some big losses to some strong opponents, Chonan is fairly well-rounded with decent striking skills and an overall excellent judo game. He’s a bit small at 185, but he will be bigger since he is dropping down to 170 for the UFC. Look for him to have a bit more power and size on Parisyan.

A tough matchup indeed. I believe Chonan has the judo skills to really stop Parisyan from moving in on him for big hip tosses and judo moves that could temporarily put Chonan in bad positions. Parisyan is still very well rounded and active in his fights early. Parisyan should be able to keep working Chonan tired and end the fight in a decision win. It’ll be interesting to see if Parisyan shows up with some more power since he’s been off for months and hopefully gaining strength and training during that time.

Pick: Karo Parisyan via Unanimous Decision.

Thiago “Pitbull” Alves vs. Chris “Lights Out” Lytle

Alves is an American Top Team prospect with power in his hands. He has 7 fights in the UFC, 5 wins, with his most notable victories over John Alessio, Tony DeSouza, and Kuniyoshi Hironaka. He has some hard striking that could overwhelm the veteran Chris Lytle. Lytle has been around for quite awhile. He’s a very good submission expert with a number of losses against some big name fighters, but he has been able to been nearly everyone that isn’t near the top of the heap. He’s lost to Matt Hughes and Matt Serra most recently, both by decision. He’s only been stopped once in his 14 losses, losing 13 by decision, making a statement for Lytle’s longevity in his fights.

Alves’s main weakness is his submission defense. In two of his losses, he suffered submissions to Spencer Fisher and Derrick Noble. Problem is, Alves’s power is a huge factor for Lytle, but Lytle seems to avoid the big punches and take the fight to the ground. This is going to be my small upset pick of the night, I’m going to go with Chris Lytle via submission.

Pick: Chris Lytle via submission, second round.

Other matchups
Marcus “Maximus” Aurelio (14-5) vs. Luke “Lil Hulk” Caudillo (13-8)

 

Aurelio is a very good submission fighter with the ability to avoid big punches and strikes, the kind of stuff that Caudillo will be trying to land as he has 9 wins by (T)KO. He’s susceptible to submissios with 6 losses by submission and this matchup should be no different. In true TJ Desantis speak, Aurelio should win by triangle CHOKE!


Pick: Marcus Aurelio via first round submission (triangle choke).


Joe Doerkson (39-10) vs. Ed “Short Fuse” Herman (13-5)

I like Doerkson in this fight specifically because he’s a submission fighter with a boatload more experience. Both fighters have fought each other before at SF 7 – Frightnight back in October of 2004. Doerkson squeaked out a triangle choke in the third round to win. I’m not a huge fan of Ed Herman, but he has some decent skill on the floor. I think Doerkson’s skills should still be crisp enough to take out Herman in a lengthy battle.

Pick: Joe Doerkson via second round submission.

Akihiro Gono (27-12-7) vs. Tamden “The Barn Cat” McCrory (8-0)

Great matchup between a natural welterweight and Gono who is dropping down from a middleweight to fight at 170. McCrory is a fairly tall fighter with some size. He’s undefeated with a win over Pete Spratt at UFN 10 nearly 5 months ago. He seems to be mainly a knockout fighter, but has been pulling out some very good chokes in his last two fights. His length and reach are definitely advantages and he has been known to have deceptive strength and devastating elbows and knees. This will be a fairly tough fight for Gono.

Let’s get one thing out of the way. Gono doesn’t suck. Many fans seem to jump on the PRIDE fighters suck bandwagon, but Gono has only lost recently to the big names. Shogun by strikes, Henderson by knockout, and Kang by decision were his last three losses. Gono is fairly hard to submit, he has some decent submission skills, and has power in his hands as well. I’m going to go with the safe bet on this one, Gono has the experience and toughness to outlast McCrory. Plus, give some love to the Japanese, come on!

Pick: Akihiro Gono via Unanimous Decision.

Joe Lauzon (15-3) vs. Jason Reinhardt (18-0)

If you actually think Reinhardt has a chance because he’s 18-0, you’re nuts. If Reinhardt wins, I’ll forever shut the hell up. Reinhardt is about 20 miles south of where I am in Decatur, IL. He’s fought mainly cans for most of his career, but has some power and ground skills. Fact is, this is a battle that Reinhardt will have a tough time winning. He hasn’t fought really any tough fighters, his opponents’ records combine for a very small win percentage, and Lauzon has established himself as a possible force in the division. His training with BJ Penn should definitely help immensely.

Pick: Joe Lauzon via first round submission.

Those are my predictions and previews to each of the matchups at UFC 78. It isn’t exactly the most spectacular card that the UFC has put on, but it definitely has some fights worth watching. Check it out on Saturday night on Pay-per-view at 10 PM EST.



Related posts

Add comment


 

  Country flag

[b][/b] - [i][/i] - [u][/u]- [quote][/quote]



Live preview

May 16. 2008 14:24



Our Writers

  • Leland Roling - Editor
  • Joe Schmitt - Staff Writer
  • John McKiernan - Staff Writer
  • Matthew Watt - Staff Writer