The first fight that we will be analyzing here at MMA-analyst.com is the upcoming fight between Randy "The Natural" Couture and Gabriel "Napao" Gonzaga. These two will be facing off at the Mandalay Bay Casino in Las Vegas, Nevada on August 25th. This fight will be for the UFC Heavyweight Championship title that Randy Couture obtained by a 5-round domination of Tim Sylvia at UFC 68: Uprising. This will be Randy Couture's first title defense since defeating Sylvia for the belt.
For the in-depth breakdowns of each fighter, we will go through various categories to compare each fighter. Skills and styles, video analysis featuring the fighter's past five fights, historical analysis, how a fighter did against an opponent's opponents, and a perspective on the betting realm of the fight. We will also have a numbers prediction
based on the research produced in this post, and a "Gut" prediction based on my own feelings toward who will win this fight. With this overwhelming use of data, we hope to help spur conversation, disagreements, and the changing of some thoughts on this fight, and possibly the changing of our thoughts on this fight. The point here is to spur research and conversation.
Skills & Styles Breakdown
Let's start off with Randy Couture. He is revered as a legend in the UFC and an ambassador to the sport of MMA. Randy Couture's style consists of some striking skills, but he is a very formidable opponent to any heavyweight when his Greco-Roman wrestling is being used to its full effectiveness against his opponent. Greco-Roman wrestlers who possess the skills to use this style to its most effectiveness in the Octagon usually fair better than most fighters they face. This is usually because this style teaches fall tactics, body control techniques, and various skills need to better position yourself to strike, submit, or tire an opponent.
Couture's striking is also a weapon he has used in the past to defeat opponents. He uses his striking abilities well against opponents that cannot stop his wrestling skills. Once in a stable position to mount an opponent, Couture can unleash a ground and pound game that is usually very hard to get out of. His striking and wrestling combination also allows for him to set up submission chokes, kimuras, and armbars. The combination of all of these skills and knowledge have made Couture a very tough opponent to contend with in the Octagon.
Gabriel Gonzaga uses a different skill set that is emerging in MMA. It has been around since the beginning of MMA in general, but we have seen a massive influx of fighters using its techniques in the Octagon. Brazilian ju-jitsu is a ground fighting/grappling technique used to gain a dominant position on your opponent and submit that opponent using various submission techniques. He currently holds a black-belt in BJJ, which is an unbelievable accomplishment and shows he is one of the best in the world. He also is a former member of the famed Chute Box Academy in Brazil that has produced such great fighters as Wanderlei Silva, ''Shogun'' Rua, ''Ninja'' Rua, along with training many other champions such as Anderson Silva.
Gonzaga has also shown a very good striking game in the ring. With his unbelievable knockout of MMA legend, Mirko ''CroCop'' Filipovic at UFC 70, he earned this title shot against Randy Couture. He has some very quick hands, and a devastating ground and pound using his elbows and setting up striking opportunities with his BJJ skills. A very active and complete fighter on the ground, he will be a huge test for Couture.
Video Analysis
With the advent of multimedia on the Internet, we are now able to actually see these fights over and over again and analyze them to a pinpoint moment. This is very helpful when breaking down a fighter and viewing fighters you may not have seen before. It also is a huge indicator whether a fighter looks fresh, crisp, and on top of his game in his last few fights. Predictions are sometimes made or broken based on sluggish performances in the past. Let's take a look at both of these fighters in action:
These are the breakdowns of both of the fighters last 5 fights in the UFC. At a glance, Couture was 3-2 in his last 5 fights. He suffered two losses to Chuck Liddell via brutal KOs. Gonzaga, on the other hand, went 5-0 in his last 5 fights. He showed an unbelievable ability to catch his opponents with strikes and also transition to his ju-jitsu on the ground. Let's take a more in-depth look at Couture's last 5 fights.
Breakdown of Randy Couture's Last 5 fights
Couture vs. Liddell 2 & 3
These 2 fights are eerily the same fight. Couture's inability to take Liddell to the ground proved to be his undoing in both of these bouts. Liddell forces Couture to strike with him. After the first matchup between Couture and Liddell, Liddell was well aware the Couture had some striking ability. He used that knowledge to begin probing jabs at Couture, and then hoping Couture would counterpunch. This opened Couture up for Liddell's own counterpunch, which is now Liddell's trademark style of fighting. Liddell exposed Couture's weakness of poor guard against the counter punch, and being taken advantage of in the standup game. Couture's standup, although very good in its own right, was poor during these fights. He was unable to counter any of Liddell's probing jabs, and only landed a couple of decent punches before being caught.
Couture vs. Arsedale
This matchup turned into a long war of attrition in which Arsdale became unbelievably tired in the 3rd round. Couture's cardio and world class conditioning showed during the final round. Arsedale was unable to stop Couture from taking him down and applying an Anaconda choke. In almost every fight Couture has taken, he has always shown up in tremendous shape. This definitely attributes to his continued career even at 44 years of age.
Couture vs. Sylvia
Most likely one of the biggest upsets at the time of the fight, the smaller Randy Couture absolutely dominated Tim Sylvia in every aspect of the fight. This was the best we've seen Randy Couture in quite some time. Randy was able to use his Greco-Roman wrestling to basically throw Sylvia to the ground and throw punch after punch at Sylvia. As the match progressed, Sylvia's conditioning faltered and the damage he had taken mounted up. The matchup was definitely a fight involving two different styles. Sylvia is mainly known for his striking ability, but he has never been quick. Unlike Liddell, Sylvia is slow on his feet, and usually backs opponents into the cage and begins his assault. Couture was able to catch him easily and get him to the ground. Sylvia's height proved to be a crutch to Couture's wrestling. Sylvia was unable to stop Couture's takedown game.
Final Analysis
Couture proved that his conditioning is world class in both the Sylvia and Arsedale fights. He also proved his Greco-Roman wrestling is controlling and very powerful, even against opponents who have a large size advantage over him. Couture's standup striking is good, but his decision making in the standup game is suspect. Liddell dominated Couture in two matchups, in which he was too quick for Couture to take him down. When Liddell was taken down, he was able to get back up and commence the barrage of strikes after being in a clinch for too long. Couture's biggest weakness is his striking game, and he will want to avoid a counter punching standup fight with Gonzaga.
Breakdown of Gabriel Gonzaga's Last 5 fights 
Gonzaga vs. Jordan/Scherner
Little footage is available on both of these fights, but Jordan was KO'd by a Superman punch in the 3rd round of their fight. Gonzaga looked a bit winded, but Jordan was absolutely gassed. Gonzaga's surprising KO victory with a technique that's usually not associated with a standup KO shows us that Gonzaga has a repetoire of techniques he can use in the standup game. The Scherner fight was a bit different. It only went two rounds, in which the fight seemed somewhat even after the first round. Scherner complained about seeing double after the 1st round. He ate a few punches and a couple of hard knees to the gut during the 1st round. His corner insisted he continue, and Gonzaga dropped him with two huge haymakers to end it. Both of these fights were big standup wins for a guy who is really a BJJ expert. He was beginning to really show he was a complete fighter in both of these matchups.
Gonzaga vs. Marrero
A very uneven matchup unfolded as the fight began. Gonzaga dominated. He showed some great standup with a good left hook to start the fight. He had some devastating takedowns that led to him passing Marrero's guard and mounting Marrero almost immediately. He was able to squeeze off an arm triangle and almost submit Marrero, but then transitioned to an armbar immediately. Very impressive show of his ju-jitsu skills in this matchup along with some striking ability.
Gonzaga vs. CroCop
Considered the biggest upset of 2007 along with Diaz beating Gomi, CroCop underestimated Gonzaga's ground game, and then paid for the damage when he stood back up. Gonzaga was able to catch CroCop's leg kick early, take him down, and land a good amount of elbows to CroCop's head. In turn, this causes CroCop's vision to blur, and he was caught with a huge leg kick from Gonzaga to end the fight. I have yet to hear this fight accurately analyzed correctly. CroCop did a very good job holding Gonzaga close to his body, but.. in the UFC, elbows are in play, and Gonzaga was able to get free for just enough time to throw those elbows down on CroCop. If this was PRIDE, CroCop wouldn't have been giving him enough room to land any damaging punches. CroCop was stunned by the elbows, and when the standup began again, he definitely looked weary. Gonzaga showed a whole new aspect of his game by implementing the huge high leg kick into his striking. He was also able to show he could literally maul opponents on the ground with elbows. Two added components to his fight game that will definitely spell problems for Couture.
Final Analysis
Gonzaga has unbelievable ju-jitsu as shown in the Marrero fight, but his critical skill in the UFC has been his striking. He has proven to have some very good striking skills with wins over Jordan, Scherner, and CroCop. He convincingly lands more punches than most of his opponents, and lands them with power. Gonzaga definitely proves he is a complete package in the heavyweight division. He has yet to completely showcase his ju-jitsu skills, but he has used those skills to control opponents on the ground and position himself for ground and pound techniques. He is quick on his feet, and very tough to takedown. In his last 5 fights, he proved why his ranking has increased substantially.
Betting
According to Bodog, Gabriel Gonzaga is the favorite in this fight. Gonzaga is coming in at a -135 and Couture at a +105. This is definitely a fight that is not a huge money maker. You won't make a ton of money if you bet on Couture to win, and you won't win much at all if you pick Gonzaga. By betting on Gonzaga, I will be risking more money for less money if I win. I'd make only $65 bucks on a $100 bet. Making a small play on Couture may be a smart idea here.
MMA-Analyst.com Final Predictions
Statistically, Gonzaga has only 1 loss in 9 fights, that being to a ju-jitsu brown belt who was able to actually control Gonzaga at his own game. But Gonzaga's striking ability is the X-factor in this matchup. Couture has shown he is weak against counter punchers and overall great striking opponents. Couture also will be vulnerable even if he is able to get Gonzaga to the ground due to Gonzaga's world class ju-jitsu. The bottom line is Gonzaga is nearly a complete fighter. He has excellent ju-jitsu skills to counter Couture's wrestling ability, and he has superior striking skills. If he can manage to counter punch with Couture, this could be a repeat of Liddell's KO's against Couture. I see this fight going a good three rounds before Gonzaga submits Couture. Couture has a good chance to win if he can push the tempo of the fight into the later rounds and push Gonzaga's cardio to the maximum. I give the advantage to Gonzaga if we factor in age and overall ability. Gonzaga is just more of a complete fighter than Couture.
Final Prediction
Winner: Gabriel Gonzaga
Round 3 via submission/tapout