After covering both the Randy Couture vs. Gabriel Gonzaga title bout and the Georges St. Pierre vs. Josh Koscheck contender bout, we are turning our big guns toward the rest of the fight card at UFC 74 in Las Vegas on August 25th. The remaining fights and fighter's profiles courtesy of the fight finder at Sherdog.com are as follows:
Joe "Daddy" Stevenson vs Kurt Pellegrino
Patrick "The Predator" Cote vs. Kendall "Da Spyda" Grove
Renato "Babalu" Sobral vs. David Heath
Marcus "Maximus" Aurelio vs. Clay "The Carpenter" Guida
Alberto Crane vs. Roger "El Matador" Huerta
Antoni Hardonk vs. Frank Mir
Thales Leites vs. Ryan Jensen
Fight breakdowns
That's how our fight card is shaping up after the two big main event fights of the night. Let's start off with the lightweights"
Joe "Daddy" Stevenson vs. Kurt Pellegrino
Stevenson has been considered by some to be a top-notch contender in the lightweight division. After the incident with Sean Sherk testing positive for steroids and possibly being stripped of his title if the CSAC confirms and upholds their decision, Stevenson may be right in the mix to obtain the title after a few good fights. First matchup in his way is that of Kurt Pellegrino. Stevenson brings a wealth of experience to the Octagon, racking up a 27-7 record over the course of his career. His main styles are Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu, Wrestling, and he is able to use them very effectively. His most recent battle was against Melvin Guillard. In their UFC Fight Night 9 encounter, Stevenson proved he had great standup by landing a huge blow to Guillard at the beginning of the fight, and then ground and pounding Guillard for about 10 seconds. Guillard moved to get on his feet and Stevenson got a hold of his neck and choked out Guillard by Guillotine Choke. This fight was overly impressive for Stevenson because Guillard is an excellent striker, had a longer reach, but Stevenson was able to counter and then follow with another huge jab. His feet were quick, and his head movement was dodging Guillard's few punches he did throw. Video of the fight is here. Stevenson's power in his striking has improved, and is now a force to reckon with, but his ground game is superb. He will be a handful for any fighter to take on.
Kurt Pellegrino is a very accomplished Brazilian ju-jitsu fighter. He learned from Ricardo Almeida, a world famous Brazilian Jiu Jitsu competitor, and he is also very versed in wrestling. Pellegrino is strictly a submission fighter who has recent wins over Nate Mohr, Junior Assuncao, and Jesse Chilton after losing to Drew Fickett at UFC 61. Although he hasn't beaten any top lightweights in the division yet, this fight will be Pellegrino's calling card if he is going to continue up the ranks in the lightweight division. He doesn't seem to have strong standup, so look for him to take this fight to the ground. We may see Stevenson try to keep it up for a bit because he will most likely have the stronger striking of the two. Once on the ground, I'm going to take Stevenson's ju-jitsu over Pellegrino's ju-jitsu. Although Pellegrino has a very good training background, he hasn't beaten the top of the line fighters. He did last until the 3rd round against a very technical submission fighter in Drew Fickett though. I don't see this fight ending instantly unless Stevenson's takedown defense or range keeps Pellegrino from taking him down. I think this fight could easily go the distance, Pellegrino is no slouch and has ample defense against ju-jitsu submissions. I'm going to go out on a limb and say that Stevenson will take this late in the bout by submission.
Final Prediction: Joe "Daddy" Stevenson - Late 2nd round - Mid 3rd round submission/tapout
Patrick Cote vs. Kendall Grove
Patrick Cote comes into this fight sporting a 10-4 record with TKO win over Jason Day in TKO 29 - Repercussion, and an unanimous decision over Scott Smith in UFC 67. Cote added kickboxing and wrestling to his boxing, and currently studies Brazilian Jiu Jitsu under Fabio Holanda. This may be a surprising matchup. Cote is coming off 2 wins, one being in a different organization other than the UFC with subpar fighters, but he is studying with Brazilian Top Team Canada along side Georges St. Pierre. Fabio Holanda is also a very good instructor, obtaining a black belt in Brazilian ju-jitsu. He has been less than impressive in his last 5-7 fights. He's racked up a few decision victories and submission wins by choke, but has ran into roadblocks against guys like Travis Lutter, Chris Leben, and Joe Doerksen. Cote is susceptible to ju-jitsu submissions and has proven to be unable to handle ju-jitsu fighters such as Lutter. He hasn't faced a decent ju-jitsu opponent in a long time, and this matchup does not look good for Cote.
Kendall Grove is coming off a convincing win over Alan Belcher. His length and reach is very intimidating in this fight. Not only is it very hard to get inside on him, he is definitely improved on the ground with his ju-jitsu. For a taller guy, it's much easier to sink in triangle chokes with the length the Grove has. He is also on a three fight win streak, and improving in every fight. If his standup has significantly improved, look for this fight to go no longer than 2 rounds. Cote is going to have his work cut out for him trying to get inside on Kendall without getting hit hard, and without getting thrown down and into a ju-jitsu clinic on the ground. I will say Cote can probably last the first round, but as he pushes the pace, I think Cote will make mistakes. He hasn't been fighting the best competition he possibly could be. He also hasn't fought a decent ju-jitsu opponent in a long time. I think the combination of that and Grove's length will be the end for Cote's night.
Final Prediction: Kendall Grove, 2nd round submission/tapout
Renato Sobral vs. David Heath
Sobral, or "Babalu" as he is known to the MMA community is a Brazilian ju-jitsu master in the ring with a 27-7 record, 14 wins via submission. He is coming off 2 losses in the UFC to Chuck Liddell and Jason Lambert, both via KO/TKO respectively. Sobral has said publicly that if he doesn't win his next bout, he will retire. I believe Sobral definitely does not want to do that. Sobral has had an impressive career, but he is widely known as beating Maricio "Shogun" Rua and Jeremy Horn in the same night at IFC - Global Domination. Sobral lacks knockout power, and that showed against Liddell and Lambert. He wasn't able to utilize his Brazilian ju-jitsu, and without any offensive weapons except for a ground game against guys who weren't allowing him to get them to the ground, he's useless. He has excellent ju-jitsu skills however, and he does have the ability to hang in a fight and use his ju-jitsu to control opponents. He has squeaked out 11 decisions in his career, mostly against devastating ground fighters with some standup ability. Babalu is world renowned for his training techniques and cardio conditioning as well. He shouldn't have any problems with lasting the entire bout. He has fought some of the best in the business, including Fedor Emelianenko in RINGS, to a decision. This definitely shows he has the ability to avoid the huge attacks from the big guys and still stay in the match. Ju-jitsu fighters who are able to do that always have a chance, especially when their opponent tires. Look for Sobral to do this if he can't get a submission early.
Heath is 7-1 in his career in MMA. He studies Boxing and submission wrestling, and has some impressive agility on his feet and some decent submissions. He is definitely more suited for a standup matchup against opponents. He has some pretty heavy hands and is always looking to strike. In a few interviews, he has shown that he is very determined in the striking aspect of his game. I think this may be his downfall in this matchup. Babalu can take a punch, and if he's looking to take Heath down, he's going to do so if Heath is only looking to knock his block off. To Heath's credit, he lost to Ryoto Machida due to decision as a replacement for Forrest Griffin. He was able to ward off Machida's standup, although Machida hasn't convincingly finished a fight in quite some time, winning his last 3 fights via unanimous decision. Heath doesn't have bad grappling skills, but I think if he is determined to just bang out Sobral, this fight will end quickly with a submission victory by Babalu.
Final Prediction: Renato Sobral, 2nd round submission/tapout
Marcus "Maximus" Aurelio vs. Clay "The Carpenter" Guida
This is one of the most talked about matchups on the card and is a pretty even fight on paper. Marcus Aurelio is a Brazilian ju-jitsu fighter with a record of 14-4 in his career. He is most notably known for choking out Takanori Gomi in
| PRIDE - Bushido 10. His last two appearances haven't faired so well. He lost a split decision in a rematch with Gomi, and lost to
Mitsuhiro Ishida by unanimous decision at
| PRIDE - Bushido 11. Aurelio has outstanding ju-jitsu, although it hasn't shown in recent bouts. His bout against Gomi in which Aurelio arm triangle choked out Gomi had some flashes of brilliance from Aurelio. He used a very strong takedown against Gomi after countering a Gomi punch. He was able to control Gomi easily on the ground even as Gomi squirmed to get free by any means possible. Coming off of a two loss streak, Aurelio may have his hands full against the cardio machine that is Clay Guida.
Clay Guida is a 21-8 record fighter with unbelievable cardio conditioning. He recently came off a loss against Tyson Griffin in which many fans in the MMA community felt Guida won. Guida has some fierce strength and is definitely able to throwdown opponents with some huge force. He also has that extraordinary conditioning in his back pocket in this matchup. Guida is also a huge fan favorite in this fight. So, it comes down to a few factors. Can Guida really avoid Aurelio's ju-jitsu game? My gut says No. Guida may be able to fiercely throw around Aurelio, but ju-jitsu is an artform when someone is pushing you down and trying to pound you. The best guys in MMA can reverse the advantage in their favor even in the most dire situation on the ground. But Aurelio has had a poor showing in his last two fights, and I'm wondering if this is the beginning of the end for Aurelio. Guida is an unbelievably tough test for a first fight in the Octagon, and I doubt he is ready for Guida's intensity and conditioning.
This is the toughest prediction on the card. By the numbers, Aurelio has fought more top notch competition in his weight class, but my gut tells me Guida's tenacity may overwhelm Aurelio during the fight. If Guida can be aggressive and not make the mistake of sinking into Aurelio's arms, I think he can tweak out a decision win. I feel this fight may go much like the Ishida fight. Guida can overwhelm Aurelio and win this.
Final Prediction: Two way road, safe bet is Marcus Aurelio, but on a limb.. Clay Guida by Unanimous Decision.
Alberto Crane vs. Roger "El Matador" Huerta
Filing down the card, this fight is somewhat intriguing to me. Huerta is a 18-1 fighter with half his wins by TKO/KO. His main style is Greco-Roman wrestling. The UFC has been feeding this "poster" boy of the UFC a lot of lower-level fighters. He has yet to break into the top of the lightweight division, and nobody can really point to why. UFC 74 is no exception. Huerta will face off against Alberto Crane, a black belt in Brazilian ju-jitsu with an 8-0 record with 7 submission victories. Could this be a big upset? It's possible. Huerta had a very poor showing against Doug Evans in the 1st round of his last matchup. He was nearly submitted and Evans had Huerta's back for most of the first round. This was a bit of proof that there were holes in Huerta's guard and game. Crane has much more superior ground skills than Evans, and I'm looking at this matchup as a possible upset of Huerta. Crane's credentials include:
Main Titles:
Explosion Champion (MMA) (2004) - USA
Ring of Fire Champion (MMA) (2004) - USA
King Of The Cage – Light Weight Champion (MMA) (2003) - USA
ZST Japan Superfight (MMA) (2003) - Japan
Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu world Champion (2002)
2 times Brazilian Teams champion (1999 and 2002)
Silver medalist on the 2000 Jiu-Jitsu Pan Ams championships.
Silver medalist on the 1999 mundials championships.
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This is definitely an impressive resume for a BJJ black belt. I'm going to predict a Huerta victory as a pick, but if you are going to put a bit of money down on this fight, Crane is a definite good bet to at least play some money on. I'm going to stay away from the upset pick purely on the fact I haven't seen any tape on Crane. The tape I have seen is against sub-par fighters that he easily disposed of. I will say that Crane was tenacious in some of his fights, and I think that's a good trait when going in against Huerta. I see two things possibly happening. Huerta catches Crane with a big punch, or Crane dominating Huerta's wrestling on the ground. Which will happen first?
Final Prediction: Safe bet is Huerta by 1st/2nd round KO/TKO but...
UPSET PICK OF THE EVENT: Crane by submission, 2nd round.
Hardonk/Mir and Leites/Jensen breakdowns tomorrow....
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