This past weekend Randy Couture was in Dallas for “HDNet Fights: Reckless Abandon.” As a guest on the show, Couture reiterated that he was not retired from fighting, and that he had only resigned from the UFC. During the interview, Couture expressed his interest in fighting Emelianenko, and again stated that this is the only fight that makes sense for him right now. Will the UFC let Couture get away, or will they break down and bring Fedor into the Octagon?
What about Couture’s contract with the UFC?
Couture stated in the interview and post-fight press conference that his fighting contract was going to expire in July. He would be released from his employment contract in October. There is still a cloud of ambiguity surrounding the UFC and their contracts. Is it going to be significant that the UFC offered Couture a fight with Nogueira? It very well could be. If the contract is structured in such a way that Couture has to fight a certain number of times and do so in a certain time period, then he could be in breach of contract since he turned down the Nogueira fight. The UFC might have a significant bargaining chip when it comes down to the expiration of Couture’s contract. Couture stated he was going to honor the UFC’s contract and do everything he can to avoid litigation. The fact of the matter is that Randy owes the UFC two more fights, and if they offered him a fight and he turned it down; he may be violating that contract. That would be good news for the UFC who would then be able to go into a lengthy court battle with Couture, and keep him from fighting.
Will the UFC let this fight happen somewhere else?
The more I think about this from a business standpoint, the more I think the UFC will allow this fight to go on without themselves being involved. If Couture somehow manages to get out of his contract with the UFC, I think he’ll move on and fight Fedor in Japan, possibly on New Years’ Eve in 2008. While it will probably do big money overseas, it will do next to nothing here in the States.
In America, people associate MMA with the UFC. The UFC has done a great job of creating that brand recognition. In fact, most news outlets and the media call it “ultimate fighting,” not mixed-martial arts. Let’s take Fedor’s fight with Matt Lindland as an example. That fight only had 15,000 pay-per-view buys. Yes, you read that right, 15,000. Even the mediocre UFC cards do around 400,000. And, if we’ve learned anything about Couture over the past couple of months, this fight won’t come cheap. I’m anxious to see if M-1 will still have their million-dollar offer on the table.
What’s in it for M-1?
The problem for M-1 is there are a limited number of opponents out there for Fedor. Of the opponents that do exist, almost all of them lack value. Outside of Josh Barnett, who isn’t a huge draw in America, there isn’t another opponent that makes sense. Truthfully, only the hardcore MMA fans want to see that fight. That leads us to another problem for Fedor, he has no drawing power in America. If he is going to actually fight Couture, it would make the most sense for the fight to take place in Japan. Fedor is a huge draw in Japan and it would be the best place for M-1 to make money. They’re going to need to make as much money as possible considering the million-dollar payoff I alluded to earlier.
When M-1 held their first ever press conference, they said that Fedor asked for a special clause to be put into his contract. This clause would pay Couture $1 million more than what his current contract pays him in order to fight Fedor, with the winner winning an additional $1 million. It may be easy for M-1 to avoid this since Couture probably won’t be the UFC heavyweight champion anymore.
Another bonus for Fedor is the fight will take place in a ring. M-1 stated they will use a ring for their promotion, and this benefits Fedor entirely. There’s no doubt that Randy’s game plan would be to put Fedor up against the fence and try to wear him down. Using a ring negates that strategy, and is a big disadvantage for Couture.
The man they call the “Techno Giant”
Fedor is scheduled to take part in a spectacle fight on New Year’s Eve at “Yarennoka!” against Korean giant Hong Man Choi. While the Japanese fans love these spectacle fights, this could turn out to be a very stupid move for M-1. What happens if Fedor loses to the inexperienced Choi? The credibility surrounding the organization and Fedor would be completely demolished. M-1 would most certainly be over, and Fedor would probably accept a smaller offer from the UFC. This is what happens when you put a fighter you’re building an organization around in spectacle fights. This is a very high risk/low reward kind of fight.
Final Thoughts
There are still a lot of variables to consider, but the way Couture has been talking, this fight could very well happen at the end of the year. We still have to wait and see if Fedor defeats Hong Man Choi and we have to see how the Couture contract saga will play out. Do you want to see Fedor fight Couture inside the Octagon? Do you think this fight will ever happen? How big of a backlash would you expect from fans if Fedor loses to Choi?