Inspired by Bob Arum's recent comments regarding the state of boxing, I've decided to research the whole debate regarding Boxing vs. MMA. If you haven't seen some of the debates that ESPN has so graciously put together in order to incite screaming from boxing analysts, you should definitely check out the various videos. One of the better segments that ESPN put together was the Joe Rogan vs. Lou DiBella debate in which Rogan made DiBella look as if he was out looking for any possible hit on MMA he could. The debate eventually came down to one thing that DiBella could actually prove, that the ground tactics in mixed martial arts don't appeal to the casual fan. Rogan went on to debate that he loved the tactical game of ju-jitsu and wrestling. It was some great defensive work by Rogan and a well thought out debate from him. One thing that stuck out from Rogan was that he mentioned that MMA was "swallowing" boxing and that's why boxing promoters like DiBella were becoming outspoken and angry toward mixed martial arts. Is there truth to that? Is this why we hear all these comments in the media, the Mayweather taunting of UFC, the DiBella outrage on ESPN, the recent Bob Arum comments following the Pavlik-Taylor bout? Let's take an inside look as to what the debate is, the points each side is making, and what the future holds for each.

The Numbers

To really get an overall feeling as the where the state of MMA is in regards to popularity in the U.S., we'd have to look at television ratings, overall pay-per-view buys, and attendance and profit at each event. Since Zuffa is a private company, releasing their pay-per-view buys is something they keep to themselves. But we can look at some of the event statistics through the Nevada State Athletic Commission for events held in Las Vegas. Some of these numbers definitely show a trend in both Boxing and MMA sports.

Let's take a look at the UFC stats for Nevada:

Obviously as the UFC and MMA has grown, so have the numbers. The bigger matchups obviously drew more tickets sales to these events as well. Looking at these numbers, you can't deny the fact that in a 5 to 6 year span there has been a huge growth. In light of that statement, what is the current growth just based on those top gates in Nevada. Roughly, the revenues have soared and so has the attendance, nearly a 900% revenue boost and the attendance has tripled. This is only the verge. The UFC has been solidifying deals to bring MMA to other parts of the country with bigger venues that could begin to draw 20,000 - 30,000 fans per event. Could we be seeing the beginning of MMA draws that equal that of what PRIDE was able to do in Japan or what K-1 is able to produce? It's only a matter of time.

Other data includes projected PPV buys from each UFC event. If you go around the net and manage to combine all the sources out there that estimates PPV buys, you will see that since the Hughes vs. Gracie matchup, the buyrate for UFC events has quadrupled and has most likely managed to grow even more this year. Hughes vs. Gracie was estimated to pull in over 600,000 buys. Only 6-7 events down the line, the UFC was estimated at pulling over 1 million buys on the UFC 66 card. According to an article done by MMAWeekly:

It would also be inaccurate to say that boxing can't draw decent PPV buyrates without Oscar de la Hoya. While De la Hoya vs. Mayorga was boxing's biggest event in 2006, it only generated $42 million out of the $177 million in HBO's gross PPV revenue last year. The remaining $132 million in gross PPV revenue was drawn by fights that did not feature De la Hoya. One of the reasons for the existence of this false perception about boxing's fortunes is the dramatic rise of the UFC on the PPV landscape in 2006. Even with boxing having its second-biggest year ever in 2006, the UFC surpassed boxing for the first time ever in 2006, with gross PPV revenue of $222,766,000 generated by UFC PPVs in 2006.

Although the Oscar De La Hoya myth was debunked, the UFC still managed to surpass boxing in gross revenue from PPV events. This was all in 2006 mind you. Before the huge shift of the PRIDE organization to the UFC. With the possibilities of huge matchups that pitted great PRIDE fighters vs. great UFC fighters that set up a Super Bowl of MMA, the numbers will only get larger. Current plans also have been rumored to be in place for the UFC bringing themselves into the Asian market with a UFC Japan promotion that may be slated for April or May of next year. It has been rumored that the UFC has been able to set up deals with major satellite PPV broadcast companies as well as Japanese production agencies to begin rolling out promotions next year. This isn't a huge blow to the U.S. Market, but it will make Zuffa a powerhouse with enough money to market the UFC wherever they want and make it an international organization that will fuel MMA everywhere.

Boxing isn't dead or losing the battle

To be honest, I'm not a huge boxing fanatic. I know many MMA fans who love both sports equally, but have been turned off by the corruption that has plagued boxing in the past. Fact is, boxing still has huge success in the United States. Boxing is, however, becoming less competitive in PPV buys than the UFC events. The UFC has had some successful PPV events that surpassed a few Boxing PPV events this year. The kicker was the De La Hoya vs. Mayweather fight, which surpassed all PPV buys in a boxing match. Look at one of the biggest PPV events in history, the De La Hoya vs. Mayweather battle, excerpt from Wikipedia:

The De La Hoya-Mayweather fight set the record for most PPV buys for a boxing match with 2.15 million households, shattering the record 1.99 million for Evander Holyfield-Mike Tyson II. Around $120 million in revenue was generated by the PPV. With the percentages factored in, Oscar De La Hoya ended up earning $52 million for the bout, the highest purse ever for a fighter. The previous record was $35 million, held by Tyson and Holyfield. Floyd Mayweather earned $25 million for the fight

2.15 million PPV buys, unbelievable. It's hard to say that boxing is beginning to die when they had their best year in 2006. The Taylor vs. Pavlik bout this weekend was exactly what boxing should be. If you haven't yet to see it, you should. It's a classic boxing battle. If boxing can continue to line matchups such as Taylor-Pavlik, we won't be seeing it die out anytime soon. The UFC is on the verge of breaking through however. Some events are beginning to surpass the million mark, and it's only a matter of time before we see the UFC blasting through the 1.5 million mark. With the possibility of tapping into the Asian PPV market, the revenue potential is astounding. Some of the Asian PPV markets are able to reach over 300 million television sets in the Asian continent. Getting even a small piece of that would boost the total PPV buys combined with U.S. and international to extraordinary numbers.

The international scene for Zuffa and the UFC is the tipping point for MMA. Since the demise of PRIDE, the Japanese faithful has relied on K-1 to feed their MMA hunger, along with many smaller shows that exist inside Japan that aren't televised, but more of a grassroots event. Once the UFC hits Japan and the Asian market, expect big numbers, more talent, and more events lined up for MMA fans to drool over. If UFC Japan exists as a seperate UFC organization in Asia, the total event load could double per month. The revenue would be increasing at a huge rate. Very exciting times to be Zuffa right now.

With that said, the Boxing scene is still alive and doing well in the United States even with Zuffa making deals internationally. There is still a love affair with boxing fans and the beautiful game that is boxing. People will still buy PPVs to see the big fights like Mayweather-Hatton. Co-existence seems to be the model to follow until one of these sports really begins to draw fans from the other. Right now, it seems like overlap is occurring more than anything.

Television deals & HBO

The recent surge of ratings for the UFC can't be denied in the argument that MMA could become the mainstream in the U.S. The recent success of UFC 75's free broadcast on Spike TV that earned a 3.1 rating or 4.7 million viewers according to MMAWeekly. They also reported that during one point in the Jackson-Henderson bout, the viewership increased to over 5 million viewers. This is significant because unlike boxing, the UFC has managed to begin airing major PPV event worthy events for free on the air to build a fanbase. Boxing hasn't really done this in the recent past. There is always the ESPN boxing nights that feature up and coming fighters, but to air a full PPV event with names like "Rampage" Jackson and Dan Henderson is unheard of.

Boxing has its share of great ratings though. "The Contender" consistently scores above 2.0 on a regular basis, outrating UFC Fight Night cards almost always. Some of the Contender shows have topped 7.1 million viewers, more than the actual UFC 75 event. And that's just a reality series. The UFC has a long way to go before they can overcome those type of figures for their reality show and events on Spike TV.

There is some exciting news on the horizon, mainly a deal that could be locked up with HBO sometime in the near future. The deal would most likely be similar to that of HBO's deal with Boxing. This would not only create a bigger fanbase, but it would lessen the hit on consumers who buy so many PPVs per month due to the influx of events recently. All of these reasons lead to my main point here. The main point being that both sports are going to co-exist in the marketplace whether boxing fans like it or not or UFC fans like it or not. HBO wants to make money, and there is no possible way HBO wants to left out of a sport that is growing so substantially.

Bob Arum's comments

Bob Arum had this to say after the Taylor-Pavlik fight:

I just think that he’s going to revive boxing in the Midwest and it’s going to spread to the rest of the country. I’ll tell you, this was the biggest blow to the UFC since the sort of competition began because all the young kids are going to come back to boxing. There is nothing in UFC or any of this martial arts bullsh*t that compares to this.

If you don't know who Bob Arum is, he's a huge boxing promoter who heads up Top Rank. He's been accused of pretty much every little thing you can think of over the years, mainly sucking the life out of boxing. Arum has recently been getting angry over the MMA vs. Boxing debate and these comments seem to go inline with that anger.

To be honest, I fail to understand the logic that Arum projects with this statement. He's going to revive boxing in the Midwest. Ok, first off, I'm from the Midwest, deep in the heart of Illinois, and there isn't a boxing facility for miles from here. The Quad Cities area and east of Illinois seem to have some hotbeds for Boxing as well as Chicagoland and St. Louis. I'm not a huge boxing fan, but I could name MMA camps that exist over elite Boxing facilities in the state. Wrestling is a much bigger sport than Boxing is in the Midwest in my opinion. The state universities and schools have large wrestling programs that produce great fighters that now have options instead of giving up wrestling and doing something else. Wrestlers either went into Pro wrestling after college if they could hack it, or they went on to a real-life job. Options are now open for MMA promotions to snag up these fighters and for ex-college wrestlers to begin making money in MMA. The statement seems like hype rather than truth. I'm going to say that I think Bob Arum meant the Mideast or Eastern part of the U.S. in his sentence, but Pavlik's win won't revive any type of boxing dream in the Midwest. Why?

What is on free TV that many fathers will be watching? Probably Baseball, Basketball, Football, and maybe Boxing or MMA. Unless you are a true boxing fan, ESPN's fight nights aren't one of the major events on television that people tune into. The UFC is only able to pull about 5 million viewers for a major UFC event on Spike TV. Mainstream U.S. sports still dominate the television ratings, but MMA has more of an edge in television viewership that Boxing by far. When I can tune into an IFL event or Battlerground show on free TV, as well as the TUF reality series, multiple UFC Unleashed shows, old PRIDE shows on Fox Sports Net, and UFC Fight Nights and free UFC events from time to time, the saturation of MMA on cable television is definitely trumping that of Boxing. I don't have to sit through 4 or 5 boring decisions to see the great fight at the end of the night either, and if I do, it's very rare.

The UFC also hits the 18-25 demographic pretty hard. I know many people in that age range that have either been into UFC for quite some time or are now getting into with as much enthusiasm as the hardcore fan. In turn, they get their friends into it, and they make special weekends where they all sit around drinking beers and watching the fights. Just like boxing. You can also think in the long term as to where those adults will be in 10 years, 20 years, 30 years down the road. They will all have children who will probably equally get into the UFC just like their fathers. It's a cycle, just like when you were younger and your father loved the Cleveland Browns and today, you are a Browns fan. As time goes on, the sport will continue to grow, continue to impress, and continue to gain new fans everywhere in the world.

I don't think the Pavlik-Taylor bout was even a nudge in UFC's progress. I doubt it was even a blip. That bout isn't going to make an UFC fan say "Wow, that was amazing, I think I'll stop watching UFC and watch more boxing now.". It may give someone a bit more faith in boxing again, but there will still be co-existence of the sports for now. My prediction, however, is that the UFC and MMA in general will surpass boxing in the next few years. Especially with big promotions like EliteXC, IFL, and the UFC making huge strides in their production, promotion, and marketing of their events. IFL alone has some interesting ideas that I've posted on previously as well as some new talent coming in. EliteXC already has a Showtime deal and are buying up organizations to supplement their fight rosters. The UFC is heading international and has the power to create the best matchups anywhere on the planet. MMA is here to stay and it won't be slowed by anything, definitely not boxing.