With no pertinent heavyweight fights coming up, I thought it would be a good time to take a look at the division as a whole. There are plenty of exciting match-ups that could be made, as well as a few fighters that have seemed to be forgotten about. Of course, the division is going to be decided on what happens with Randy Couture’s contract dispute. Earlier this week, Dana White appeared on the Dave Carmichael radio show on KHTK in Sacramento, and revealed that he had met with Couture the night before. He didn’t give out any specific details, just saying, “We’ll see what happens.” White was also asked about a potential fight between Couture and Pride heavyweight champion Fedor Emelianenko. His response, “Never say never.”
“Never say Never.”
While I won’t say ‘never’, I’ll say the chance of Couture fighting Fedor in the UFC is at about 5% right now. The only possible way that I can see this fight going down is a farewell fight for Couture. The scenario is entirely possible if they can get the contract issues worked out, and Dana can swallow his pride (no pun intended) and bring Fedor into the Octagon. The next heavyweight title fight is supposed to take place in February at UFC 81. We could potentially see a Couture versus former Pride heavyweight champion Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira. If Couture wins this fight, what better way than to end his career than fighting Fedor? While I think this is a very real possibility, I only give it a 5% chance of happening because there are a lot of issues to consider. The first, and biggest issue, is the contract situation with Couture. I think it would be in Couture’s and the UFC’s best interest to restructure his contract for two more fights, with the promise to bring Fedor in contingent on Couture beating Nogueira.
If he loses his fight to Nogueira, the fight with Fedor makes absolutely no sense, and he should just retire. The next factor holding this up is Dana’s ability to negotiate with Fedor and M-1. There is going to have to be a lot of money at stake for this fight to happen. Regardless of the monetary value, I think it’s a no-brainer for M-1 to take this fight. If Fedor wins, he destroys a legend, one of the most popular fighters in UFC history, and destroys all credibility around the UFC heavyweight title. It also gives them huge exposure on a national scale. All of these reasons will play a big factor into why Dana will be very leery of letting this fight happen. The idea of it being a farewell fight for Couture saves the belt credibility for the UFC. It also enables them to build someone up to “take down the Russian”. It’s an excellent marketing tactic, but I don’t know if it’s a gamble the UFC would be willing to take. There is also the possibility of Fedor losing, which would impact his credibility. There is really only one free agent heavyweight fighter that makes sense for Fedor and that’s former UFC heavyweight champion and Pride veteran Josh Barnett. Fedor losing to Barnett wouldn’t mean as much as say, him somehow losing in one of the freak show fights that he could be taking part in with M-1. The last factor would be an injury to Couture. I am singling out Couture here because he is 44 years of age, and a big injury could definitely end his career.
No Couture? No Problem.
What happens if Couture doesn’t come back to the UFC? Well, regardless of the Couture contract situation, we’re definitely going to see a title fight at UFC 81. So with Couture out, that only leaves one person left to fill his shoes, former champion Tim Sylvia. This is an interesting match-up and could throw a wrench into the heavyweight rankings. Sylvia beating Nogueira is a definite possibility. As much as I hate to say it, that could move him into #1 in the heavyweight rankings. I know, I didn’t want to say it either, but it’s definitely something to think about. The reason for Sylvia passing Fedor is largely due to Fedor’s inactivity and his lack of stiff competition. Now, that’s not saying I think Sylvia would beat Fedor, because I don’t, it will just mean he’s done more for his case lately. To me, this is worst case scenario for the UFC. Sylvia winning brings back a dominant champion that the fans don’t really care for. If Nogueira wins, the heavyweight champion of the UFC has been defeated twice by Fedor and was getting beat badly in another that was ruled a no contest due to an accidental head butt. A third (or fourth whichever way you look at it) fight between them means nothing, and will probably lead to the same outcome. The UFC needs to do everything it can to get Couture back in action, and pray with everything they have that he beats Nogueira.
What happens to Sylvia if Couture comes back?
The most logical fight I can see for the “Maine-iac” is Cheick Kongo. Kongo is a powerful kick boxer who most recently defeated Mirko “Cro Cop” Filipovic by decision at UFC 75. After Sylvia’s win over Brandon Vera at UFC 77, Sylvia called out Kongo telling him to “pick on someone his own size.” This is an interesting fight, and if Couture comes back, this would set up the #1 contender in my eyes. The problem is neither of these guys will get a chance at Couture. So that leaves the question, who’s going to fight for the belt? If Couture comes back and beats Nogueira, there’s no reason for him to fight Sylvia, who he already beat in dominating fashion, or Kongo, who would not be a big draw. So, further down the road, I think we see Sylvia versus Nogueira for either the vacant UFC heavyweight title or the actual UFC title, if Nogueira dispatches Couture.
What about “Cro Cop”?
The problem with Mirko is that he has lost 2 fights in a row, and both of them in pretty devastating fashion. There was the knockout head kick he received from Gabriel Gonzaga at UFC 70 and the decision loss to Kongo at UFC 75. Cro Cop looked good in the first round against Kongo, but faded after the groin shots and receiving one too many body kicks. To me, he still hasn’t looked like he’s adapted to the cage. He relies on angles that he uses to cut the ring off, and backing his opponent into the corner before devastating them with straight left hands and that famous left high kick. The problem for him in the Octagon is the size. It’s too big and it doesn’t allow him to cut off the angles like he’s used too. I would like to see Mirko go back to using the stick-and-move strategy. He seemed much faster in Pride, and he seemed fearless. So far, in the Octagon, Mirko has seemed tentative and a little scared. I think that’s going to change now, and I think he’ll come in more aggressive. He has added a scaled down Octagon to his training facility, and I look for it to help him immensely.
I would like to see Mirko get a confidence booster fight, but nothing too dramatic. Heath Herring would be a good fight for Mirko. He’s defeated him once, and it seems to me the UFC is treating Herring as nothing more than a gatekeeper these days. Another possibility is a fight with Vera. Although Vera recently suffered a broken hand, if he gets healed up, it’s a nice match for the UFC. That could be a win/win for the UFC. Vera really needs to move down to light-heavyweight, and a beating at the hands of Cro Cop might just be the motivation for that. Cro Cop desperately needs a win over a credible opponent. He basically suffered two loses to two guys that most fans and experts thought he would walk through. This is a pivotal fight for Cro Cop.
Hey! You’re forgetting that Brock Lesnar guy!
Ahh, Brock Lesnar versus Frank Mir. I don’t know what to think about this fight. According to insiders, Lesnar requested this fight. To that, I will say, “Be careful what you wish for.” As bad as Mir has looked since his return to the Octagon, he is still very dangerous on the ground. The problem for Lesnar is that’s where he’s going to want this fight to take place. Mir is no walk over, and he was a champion at one time. It’s commendable that Lesnar wants to fight him, and I think it’s a win/win for the UFC. It’s Lesnar’s second professional fight, how much can you expect from the man? If Mir manages to beat him, it immediately boosts his stock. I’d even go as far as boost him near the top of the division right now. Hold your breath fans, we may be on the verge of Tim Sylvia versus Frank Mir II. Has all the talent in this division really come down to this? Wrap your head around that!!
Gonzaga, Werdum, that one guy , what’s his name…Arlovski…?
Former title challenger Gabriel Gonzaga will take on Fabricio Werdum at UFC 80. This is a rematch from a few years ago where Werdum stopped Gonzaga with strikes in the third round at a Jungle Fight event. This could turn out to be an exciting fight, but for now, it has no title implications. If Gonzaga wins, I could see a rematch with Cro Cop in the near future. If Werdum pulls off the victory, I wouldn’t mind seeing him fight the winner of Mir/Lesnar. That brings us to our long lost buddy, “The Pitbull” Andrei Arlovski. Where has he been? He’s been locked in a contract dispute with the UFC. Arlovski only has one fight left on his contract and has said that he just wants to fulfill his contract and explore other options. This is an awkward situation for the UFC. Arlovski has credibility, but if Tim Sylvia is the champion, he won’t get another title shot. As far as competition goes, I don’t think the UFC wants to let Arlovski go. He would immediately boost the heavyweight division of any promotion he went too. He could be a good challenge for Fedor in M-1. He could head to EliteXC, or even Strikeforce to take on Allistair Overeem. Although he’s coming off a boring decision win over Werdum, he still has major drawing power. I’d expect the UFC to make a big push to sign Arlovski before his contract expires.
Final Thoughts
This is a pivotal time for the UFC heavyweight division, and there are a quite a few interesting fights on the horizon. The biggest factor in this division right now is Randy Couture. If he comes back, there’s still a possibility he could fight Fedor. If we don’t see Randy back in action, it could be a few more years before we see “The Last Emperor” enter the friendly confines of the Octagon. What matches are you guys looking forward too? How important is it for you to see Randy versus Fedor? Will it ever happen?
Joe Schmitt is a new contributing writer to MMA-Analyst.com.