John McKiernan is a new contributing writer to MMA-Analyst.com. He has a unique perspective on the mixed martial arts scene in that he actually has writing ability as he is nearing a graduation date on his Journalism degree. Also unique, John is in Anchorage, Alaska and has been able to tap into the Alaska Fighting Championships from time to time. We welcome John to the writing staff and he will hopefully make our writing look better.
The sixth season the Ultimate Fighter is finally coming to a close. The ratings for the show continue to come back down to earth, tumbling from the astronomical heights the first few seasons reached. While the formula of the show has grown stale, the quality of the Finals has yet to be effected. The Fertita's, Joe Silva and Dana White once again bring us a live card that follows a familiar formula: One fight of established cage veterans and a slew of prospects and fledgling athletes from the current TUF season. The show can’t be knocked; after all it is free to cable subscribers. Past Finale's have been better than this one appears to be, but, it’s no reason not to watch; its free people! The headline fight between the Season-six winners takes a back-seat to the match of UFC 'Golden boy ' Roger Huerta (19-1-1) and the kinetic Clay Guida (22-8).
It’s no secret that the UFC hopes to make Huerta their next big superstar within the Lightweight division. The hype and matchmaking thus far has sought to make 'El Matador' one part De La Hoya and one part Menudo; the ideal athlete to court the Hispanic fan base. Perhaps Silva finally heard the calls from fans to see Huerta tested, because he will be pushed by Guida on December 8th.
Guida's record isn't pretty by any means, especially of late. The eight losses do jump out at you, but he's like a chef-quality meatloaf; he's much better than he appears. 'The Carpenter' is a fitting nickname for Guida and his blue-collar fighting style based on wrestling, control and a toolbox full of submissions. In many ways, he's the perfect storm that may rain on Huerta's parade.
Almost half of Huerta’s fights have gone into the third round, and if history has holds true, El Matador will need the full fifteen minutes come fight-time. Three of his five UFC bouts lasted into the final five minutes. Huerta has shown good yet sometimes sloppy, wild stand-up. Huerta’s hands have never shown pure KO power and the one UFC victory that ended in the 1st round was the result of an illegal knee to John Halverson’s head. Guida has shown no interest in keeping a fight on the feet. Ever. I heard he shot in for a double-leg on the doctor the moment he was born. Don't expect to see the fight play out from anything beyond the clinch or the mat.
Huerta has shown holes in his takedown defense and wrestling ability, inarguably losing a round to an undersized (bantamweight) Doug Evans in June at the last TUF finale. Evans took the fight on only a few weeks notice, and had a relatively easy time putting Huerta on his back and holding him there. Guida should be able to do the same.
The quality of the fighters Guida has beaten and narrowly lost to are of much higher caliber than anyone Huerta has tangled with. All of Huerta’s Zuffa opponents until now made their debut against Roger. The nerves, lack of experience and large audience won’t affect Guida in the same way. He is battle tested. He has looked outstanding in decision losses to Gilbert Melendez, Din Thomas and Tyson Griffin. His victory over Marcus Aurelio was nice to see; not because I dislike Aurelio but just to see Guida finally get a win for all his effort. The guy comes hard and I think he'll overwhelm Huerta en route to a unanimous decision; unless of course Cecil Peoples is judging...then all bets are off.
Although I don’t know the fighters in the Finale match-up, I'm taking Mac Danzig. Give me Danzig over any of them. Danzig went nearly two and a half years without a loss on the mid-major circuit before losing a disputed split-decision to Clay French. Mac is a PRIDE veteran and he was the consensus pick from the start; and I've seen nothing to make me stray from that early season conclusion.
I fully expect Jonathan Goulet to exercise his UFC demons and win this time around. It may be his last opportunity to make a push in the promotion. A 2-3 record doesn’t cut it with the rest of the world knocking for an opportunity. The TKO veteran has been a disappointment on the major stage.
Dan Barerra is nuttier than squirrel turds. Jeet-Kune-Do practitioner Ben Saunders is (probably) the distant cousin of Mayhem Miller. The sheer oddness of these two interests me, and we will finally be able to answer the age old question;
"Who wins in a street fight? Bruce Lee or God?" I'm leaning towards Lee. Saunders’s striking has looked pretty decent, and Barrera appeared to have little head movement during the show.
At this stage in the game, the only match on the card that has immediate implications on it’s division is the main event between Huerta and Guida. This is a true test for Huerta, and the Minnesota born fighter will certainly launch himself into the convoluted 155lb. title picture with a victory. Guida I believe will play the role of the spoiler, a monkey wrench thrown into the UFC hype-machine. Over fifteen fast-paced minutes ‘The Carpenter’ will nail Huerta to the mat and disrupt the division even more.