Sean Sherk vs. BJ Penn

The most anticipated bout so far this year has to be BJ Penn vs. Sean Sherk. With Sherk’s positive steroid test and the UFC stripping him of his title, he definitely has much to prove to the UFC fanbase. Penn is also trying to prove that he has changed his ways from being only a fighter who relies on talent to a fighter who has the cardio and determination to dominate in the UFC. Any way you look at this fight, it’s going to be an epic war.

Stylistically, it’s a damn good matchup. Sherk has unbelievable cardio, great wrestling skills, and an active enough ground and pound game to keep the fight on the ground. Penn has K-1 striking abilities, good power, world class grappling game coupled with amazing flexibility, and an improved gas tank. Penn should have a standing advantage while Sherk’s wrestling skills should be the controlling factor on the ground. The x-factor lies in Penn’s jiu-jitsu and ability to attempt submissions with Sherk’s massive physique on top of him. If Penn can create some dangerous situations for Sherk, it could cause some shifts on the ground and potentially allow Penn to submit or at least escape to the feet where he can strike.

Historically, Sherk has only had problems with bigger Welterweights Georges St. Pierre and Matt Hughes. St. Pierre had some great striking abilities to counter his shoots, and Hughes was the better wrestler. Penn will have a striking advantage, but it’ll be interesting to see how his flexibility becomes a factor in avoiding the takedowns.

Penn’s losses were to a much bigger Lyoto Machida, a controversial decision to Georges St. Pierre, Jens Pulver, and to Matt Hughes at UFC 63. Penn claimed to have been hurt during his bout with Hughes, and it’s been speculated whether Penn simply ran out of gas due to a rib injury. Of course, that’s all in the past. A healthier Penn with a bigger gas tank could be the key to success against Sherk in this case. History would certainly point toward those areas needing improvement, and Penn has trained to do so.

Who should I pick? It’s a tough call. Many writers are leaning toward Sherk due to his wrestling ability being a huge problem for Penn. Ben Fowlkes pointed out that Penn has had problems against both St. Pierre and Matt Hughes in the wrestling department, and that his standup striking hasn’t been a finishing factor since Paul Creighton. I disagree. Penn was defeating St. Pierre with below average cardio and damaged St. Pierre much more than anyone I’ve seen. Penn dominated Hughes in their first matchup, and was likely disadvantaged from the rib injury in their second fight. As for his striking, it’s still an effective way to damage opponents which usually causes them to try to shoot to the ground to recover. Penn is damaging his enemies with his strikes, but most of those opponents get submitted as they try to escape to the ground to avoid damage.

I’m going to take Penn by TKO/KO here. I think Sherk has some great submission defense, but Penn has the great striking to pick apart Sherk steadily and eventually pound him out. To be perfectly honest, I can see Penn pushing the damage to a point where Sherk sloppily shoots for horrible takedowns that leave him open for the submission, but I think Penn will want to make a statement here.

Leland’s Prediction: BJ Penn via TKO/KO, Round 3

Lyoto Machida vs. Tito Ortiz

I’d have to see some significant changes from Tito Ortiz during the fight to give him a chance in this one. His last performance wasn’t his best, and it led to many fans claiming that Ortiz has past his prime of fighting in mixed martial arts. While I agree that he’s lost some of his old school beatdown skills, he’s still a fairly decent fighter against mid-tier talent. Is Machida a mid-tier fighter? No, he isn’t.

Ortiz has claimed that he’ll push the pace, get in Machida’s face, and put him into a world of pain on the ground where he likely won’t be able to use his elusiveness to evade. Although I believe only a quicker fighter can defeat Machida at this point and that the strategy he claims he wants to use has potential to work, can Ortiz actually pull it off? I don’t think so.

Ortiz hasn’t shown blazing speed in the cage, and Machida eats opponents alive when they bull rush him into the cage. While Machida may not have impressive knockout power, I still believe he possesses it. Great counter-striking has stopped Ortiz in the past, and Machida’s ground game isn’t a weakness for Ortiz to exploit.

Leland’s Prediction: Lyoto Machida via unanimous decision

Keith Jardine vs. Wanderlei Silva

A day after we lauched our picks to watch in '08, Tim Leidecker over at Sherdog wrote this little quote on Yoshiyuki Yoshida:

Even though his win over Hardy in the finals was clouded by controversy -- Hardy was disqualified for an unintentional kick below the belt -- the 32-year-old knockout artist took home the tournament victory and won a contract with the UFC.

It looks like Yoshida will be a big name to watch in the UFC for 2008. At 170 lbs. and a 9-2 record that include stints in Shooto and Cage Force, he definitely has the skills to hit the Octagon. Not only does he have a good amount of experience in the cage environment, but his style also suits him to make the transition to the UFC. A ground and pound fighter with tenacious elbows and strikes, it'll be nice to see an Asian market MMA fighter who does have experience using elbows and defending against them. "

Yushin Okami made his name in Cage Force at one point, and Yoshida seems to have impressed the UFC brass as well. Watch out for Yoshiyuki Yoshida in 2008. Click "More.." to view a video of Yoshida vs. Kikuchi as a display of some of the skills you may see in '08 from Yoshida.

CBS Sportsline writer and FiveOuncesOfPain.com blogger, Sam Caplan, had an interesting article regarding his picks for some of the break out fighters that we may see in 2008. His picks were Ed Ratcliff, Neil Grove, Jon Murphy, Tim Kennedy, Aaron Meisner, Carlo Prater, Demian Maia, and Ronaldo "Jacare" Souza. Those are some pretty decent picks for 2008, but there are a few that have been left out that should be looked at. Also, some of these names look to have some major roadblocks to overcome as well. Let's take a look.

Some thoughts on Caplan's picks

Ed Ratcliff is a great pick, and he brings the Karate background to his skillset that many mixed martial artists rarely have. A fighter who many people may know what has a demoralizing tactical gameplan for nearly every fight which features a karate background is Lyoto Machida. Ratcliff doesn't seem to garner the same type of patient countering as Machida, but he has crisp striking and precision kicks. Picking him over Karalexis recently was a damn good bet on my part, but Karalexis's wrestling was definitely a factor I had weighed. Regardless, Ratcliff pulled out a good win. Check out his Chuck Norris-esque spinning back kick win over Brett Cooper (Just recently beat Rory Markham at the IFL GP Final).

Tim Kennedy is definitely a nice pick. He nearly finished Jason Miller, but was ultimately defeated. Even with the setbacks, he's a warrior with good power, decent striking, and a great wrestling background. He'll be able to improve significantly as well as he has been training with The Pit, Liddell's camp.

Both are fantastic picks, but I'm not sold on the Demian Maia and Ronaldo "Jacare" Souza picks for a couple of reasons. First, Maia and Souza could run into the possibility of just being punched into unconsciousness. We all know that, but my main gripe deals with grapplers in general moving to the top of the middleweight division. Both guys could make waves in a weak UFC middleweight division for awhile, but the grapplers near the top and the over talent at the top rely on some decent standup skills as well. A guy like Filho has better chances because he has huge power in his arms and has a possibility of catching his opponent. His raw power is also tough to stop on the ground. His raw power makes him dangerous in the striking even though he isn't that technically sound in it. Maia and Souza don't have that advantage.

Neil Grove didn't impress me in his last fight, and honestly, he's a typical British standup fighter. Robert Berry, who wasn't using really any technique at all in his striking, was able to actually drop him to the ground and win the round. Unbelievably, Berry gave up due to exhaustion. Grove was lucky, and he will probably be exposed in any other organization.