WEC 33 Post-Event Analysis

by Leland Roling 3/27/2008 10:50:00 AM

WEC 33 didn’t provide the most spectacular night of action, but it did manage to give us some moments that likely had fans up out of their seats. The most notable win of the night was in the Light Heavyweight title bout between challenger Brian Stann and champion Doug Marshall. Marshall’s awful technical skills in the striking department left him open to a devastating counter left hook from Stann that crumpled Marshall to the canvas to end the bout in the first round. Overall, our picks garnered a 6-3 record for the evening while my bets broke even after I decided to put some heavy units on Brian Stann. Let’s take a look at the rest of the results from Wednesday evening.

Stann lays the leather on Marshall

Brian Stann came into the bout on Wednesday night as a slight favorite over Doug Marshall. Most people who are within the casual fanbase questioned why the odds were skewed in favor of Stann, but for hardcore fans who have followed the sport for quite some time and have seen Doug Marshall fight before, it was obvious why Stann was favored. His size, reach, and knockout power was enough for him to overcome Marshall’s aggressiveness in many fans’ minds. Stann’s chin also became a factor early on in the battle as he took some heavy blows to the head. Fortunately for Stann, his chin was solid for the short flurry.

Stann wasn’t very technical, nor was dynamic in his striking, but he was able to withstand and defend against Marshall’s early flurry. During Marshall’s second barrage, Stann snuck out a heavy left hook that clobbered Marshall’s chin and put him to the canvas. Stann landed an extra blow on the ground for good measure, and the fight was ended instantly by referee Herb Dean.

What’s next for Brian Stann? Steve Cantwell has likely earned a title shot after dismantling Tim McKenzie in a quick submission victory. Cantwell was explosive, precise, and powerful with his strikes which led to McKenzie scrambling to recover. It was an impressive fight for Cantwell, and he should prove to be dangerous for Brian Stann if he can continue to be accurate and powerful on his feet. We may see a Doug Marshall vs. Tim McKenzie matchup down the road for a number one contendership bout, but the fact is that Marshall needs to seriously think about his striking abilities. If it’s his cardio that is lacking that is causing his boxing to become weak and limp during the bouts, he needs to work on it because he has left himself open in other battles in which his opponent simply didn’t capitalize. Stann capitalized to a victory and a title.

Chael Sonnen dominates Bryan Baker; Hicks impresses over Ratcliff

Chael Sonnen was a question mark to many fans coming into this bout. Even Frank Trigg over at MMAJunkie.com was touting Bryan Baker as a real deal, but to anyone who actually saw Baker’s battle against Jesse Forbes, it was evident that Baker still had a lot to work on. Forbes wasn’t exactly the best competition for Baker, but he did manage to work some decent wrestling against him and at one point caught him with a hard shot that nearly ended Baker’s night. Instead, Baker reversed his fortune and won the fight.  Unfortunately for Baker, Chael Sonnen is not like Jesse Forbes, and he found that out the hard way.

Sonnen absolutely dominated this fight. In fact, two judges scored the fight 30-25 with two rounds going at 10-8 rounds. I’m not going to go into heavy detail on the domination of Baker, but it wasn’t pretty. The fight featured some heavy ground and pound, a suplex, and a lot of takedowns that Baker couldn’t stop if he tried. Pure domination by Sonnen.

Hicks was the surprise of the evening for me. Although I thought he’d be an able challenger for Ratcliff, I thought his size would be a heavy disadvantage for Hicks due to Ratcliff’s dynamic striking, but it didn’t come into play. Hicks landed some nice blows early on, and ran over Ratcliff as he moved in for the kill. Ratcliff was caught in multiple guillotine chokes that had Frank Mir screaming “It’s OVER!” before the fight was even close to over yet. Hicks may have small size, but he’s a mean ball of muscle that could prove to be a tough fight for anyone, especially with some decent jiu-jitsu skills coupled with the power he has. As we know, big power and jiu-jitsu (i.e. Paulo Filho) can be a devastating way to win fights.

Hicks will likely be in the title picture very soon, and Sonnen will likely get his rematch with Paulo Filho after Filho’s depression rehab ends. I’m very interested in seeing Hicks against some able ground opponents. If he can move through that type of competition quickly, there’s no reason he doesn’t have a great shot at Varner.

Crunkilton runs a takedown clinic, Alessio gets DQ’d

Crunkilton’s battle with Sergio Gomez was, in an eerie way, how I thought the fight would run its course. Although I picked Crunkilton to put Gomez down for the count, Gomez did strike me as a possible spoiler in this matchup. He proved that his striking was much better than Crunkilton’s standup, but he had no answer to Crunkilton’s constant takedowns. If Gomez could develop a decent sprawl, he could be much more dangerous. Unfortunately, Gomez didn’t have any takedown defense skills, and “Cleat” cruised to a decision win in a tough, hard fought battle.

Alessio killed my betting night with his DQ loss to Brock Larson. Although Larson should have been favored, I felt that Alessio had a great chance at defeating Larson since his takedown defense is fairly good. He also has a bit more power than Larson in his hands, and the combination of a great takedown defense and good hands can be crushing to a wrestler. Unfortunately, Alessio kneed Larson while he was trying to get back to his feet, and Larson stated that he could not continue. I’m sure we’ll see a rematch.

Other action during the evening…

Alex Serdyukov was an easy pick for me. His record indicated that he had hung with much tougher competition in the past, and Ryan Stonitsch had a record that resembled Jason Reinhardt’s 18-0 record with nothing but newcomers and low-echelon talent. At 8-0, Stonitsch looked great at a glance, but his talent level wasn’t where Serdyukov’s level was at. Somehow, this win by Serdyukov was the most surprising win at MMAPredictions.com. Stonitsch received 86% of the vote… come on people, do your research.

Miura looked very good at his new weight class, and his power should prove to be formidable to other opponents in this division. Look for good things from him. Chris Manuel remained undefeated with a win over Kenji Osawa by a split draw. It was a very close fight, but the ATT product moves on. Hopefully he’ll gain some more skill at ATT and impress us the next time out. Logan Clark defeated Scott Harper in an easy TKO victory in the first round of their matchup. He improves to 10-1, and may be on the road back to fighting Eric Schambari again with another win.

Overall thoughts

Mir was once again a very good in his analysis role, but he was also jumping the gun once again. Telling the audience that the fight is over and then having the fighter squirm out of the hold makes you sound stupid, come on Frank. The production values weren’t bad, and were of a typical WEC show. The interviews during the event didn’t provide much heat, but Pulver did sound pretty amped about the showdown, and he looks like he’s enjoying himself at 145 lbs. It should be a great battle, and I think people are underestimating him a bit.

Overall, the event gets a C+/B- from me. The matchups didn’t pan out to be incredible fights, but Gomez-Crunkilton provided some back and forth action that I was enjoying very much. Cantwell was explosive and surprised me in his battle with McKenzie as did Marcus Hicks’ domination of Ed Ratcliff. Check out those fights online or on the re-air of WEC 33 on Versus.

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WEC 33



WEC 33 Preview & Predictions

by Leland Roling 3/25/2008 5:17:00 PM
WEC.tv

After a lax weekend of mixed martial arts action with only the lone ShoXC card making waves in the American market, World Extreme Cagefighting will hold its 33rd event on Wednesday night back in Las Vegas, Nevada. Featured on the event’s main card will be a Light Heavyweight title bout between current champion Doug “The Rhino” Marshall and Iraqi war hero Brian Stann. The undefeated Stann will be looking to use his size to topple the smaller Marshall. In other action, Brock Larson will make his return to the WEC cage against the veteran John Alessio. Ed Ratcliff will be looking to continue his success by using his dynamic striking abilities against a very tough opponent in Marcus Hicks. It looks to be a fantastic night of exciting bouts that should provide some validation for some of the up-and-coming talent in the WEC.

Main Event: Doug Marshall vs. Brian Stann

Brian Stann may finally be the answer that fans have been looking for when it comes to defeating Doug Marshall. With a large frame and a distinct reach and height advantage, Stann could be the immovable object that Marshall simply won’t be able to push away. In most of Stann’s previous bouts, he cruised relatively easy through the first round with crushing TKO wins over Jeremiah Billington, Craig Zellner, and Steve Cantwell. Although he hasn’t faced the stiffest of competition, his overall physical attributes make him a danger to Marshall.

Marshall may have some problems with Stann’s size, but he definitely has the aggressiveness to catch the lengthy war veteran. My biggest knock on Marshall in the past has been his sloppy striking that still seems to win him most of his battles. He’s also seemed to pick up a decent jiu-jitsu base, although it was only proven recently against Ariel Gandulla. I don’t believe Marshall can work that type of game on the ground against Stann, and I have a solid belief that Stann will be the fighter that can neutralize Marshall in the standup game.

Leland’s Predictions: Brian Stann via TKO, Round 1

This is going to be a stand-up war until someone takes one on the chin. My guess is that’s going to be Marshall. Stann has a warrior mentality and throws some nice straight punches down the middle. Marshall is more of a brawler that likes to throw looping overhand punches. He’s a little short to be fighting at light-heavyweight, so I expect Stann to be able to avoid those looping punches and beat Marshall to the punch with his straight punches. Look for Stann to finish Marshall early with strikes.

Joe's Prediction: Brian Stann via TKO, Round 1
_____________________________

John Alessio vs. Brock Larson

On paper, this is a fight that fans should be looking forward to for a couple of reasons. First, Larson has only lost twice in his career and his second loss was only as recent as in August of last year to Carlos Condit. Secondly, Alessio is not only a great fighter, but he’s also a veteran with a plethora of experience against tougher competition than Larson has taken on. It should be a decent wrestling matchup for both fighters, and I’m intrigued to see how Larson will do against able competition that isn’t on the UFC level, but still has a solid skillset to counter him.

The more I look at this matchup, the more I’m beginning to like John Alessio in this fight. He has more experience, been in the cage against tougher competition, and has added power in his hands that Larson has never really had. He has a solid wrestling base, and can use the talent at Xtreme Couture gym to supplement his training. Larson has a solid record, but many of his wins are against subpar competition. He also has controlling ground and pound, but I think Alessio can neutralize Larson.

Leland’s Prediction: John Alessio via unanimous decision
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More...


WEC 33 Betting Preview

by Leland Roling 3/25/2008 6:27:00 AM
Backgammon.org

Normally, our coverage of events wouldn’t delve much into the betting side of the sport due to the unluckiness I seem to get once I divulge my picks to my buddies. Fortunately for me, 2008 has been a monster year for me, so I figured I’d give a little insight on each fight at WEC 33 and help some of you decide. Don’t mistake me for Preformify at MMAJunkie, or a huge expert in the field of calculating the percentage chance I have to win. I simply look at the odds, and figure out which fights I can use as “sure-fire” wins and which bets I can take a chance on. It’s worked very well this year, and my win percentage on the betting side baffles even myself. Let’s take a look at the BetOnFighting.com odds for Wednesday’s WEC event:

Doug Marshall   +130        
Brian Stann   -160
       

Marshall’s line may improve, but I’m positive that Stann is the favorite with most fight fans who actually know a thing or two about the standup game. Marshall is sloppy, and Stann has the potential to bulldoze through him in the first round. -160 isn’t a bad deal, but it’s a bit steep for me when Stann hasn’t faced incredible competition at all.

Bryan Baker   +285        
Chael Sonnen   -355
        

A lot of people are amped over this line. Sonnen has had some bad fights in the past, but Baker isn’t the guy who is going to expose Sonnen. Sonnen has unbelievable wrestling and some decent power on his feet. If you really believe Baker can put one on Sonnen’s chin, by all means, throw down some money on Baker at +285, but watching Baker almost lose to an ugly performing Jesse Forbes hasn’t convinced me.

Ed Ratcliff   -105        
Marcus Hicks   -125
  

I like Ed Ratcliff’s chances at -105, so it may be a bet that I would make to win a little under double my money, but Hicks is definitely a spoiler here with his jiu-jitsu and wrestling ability coupled with power. The line is fairly even, but I’m not exactly sure about this one. As a slight underdog, I will likely throw down on Ratcliff here. He has promising potential, and this is a huge test for him.

Steve Cantwell   +115        
Tim McKenzie   -145
    

I think McKenzie is going to drop Cantwell in this bout, so I’ll be staying away from this line as far as betting goes. +115 on Cantwell isn’t unbelievably great odds either. McKenzie in a parlay may be a good idea though since the line is close.

Blas Avena   +155        
Hiromitsu Miura   -195
    

Miura is a pretty tough fighter, but Avena is showing some promise. I’m not much of a gambler on these lower level fights, but it may be wise to throw a small amount on Avena at +155. His line may grow even wider considering he’s only a 2-1 fighter in mixed martial arts.

John Alessio   +215        
Brock Larson   -275

My big bet will be on John Alessio at WEC 33. He has some great takedown defense, great experience against UFC bound fighters, and has the skills to beat Larson. Larson is, however, a beast that keeps coming during his bouts. He has good takedowns and crushing ground and pound. I like the fact that Alessio has some training partners at Xtreme Couture that should help him counter that.

Sergio Gomez   +165        
Richard Crunkilton   -205

Our preview will be up tomorrow, and during my actual picks, this was a bit of a tough call. Gomez could potentially cause problems, but Crunkilton has more experience and punishing abilities on the ground. I’d take Crunkilton here, but his line is fairly steep to place big money on.

Bets I will likely take, but maybe change my mind so don’t blame me

Alessio is worth some money since the payout is much bigger than I originally expected. He also has a solid shot at defeating Larson in this one, but it should be a war to decide who will win it. I’m definitely curious on Avena, and his line may be worth a small bet since Miura is still susceptible to the early onslaught. Put me down for Ed Ratcliff and Brian Stann as well. These are purely biased picks because I think Ratcliff is a damn great fighter with solid standup skills and has shown a surprising sprawl in the past. I also believe that Marshall’s time has come, and Stann’s size will be overwhelming.

Bets:  Alessio (upset bet), Avena, Ratcliff, Stann
Super Parlay action (if I feel bored): Stann, Ratcliff, McKenzie, if you're ballsy (Alessio, Marshall, Avena, or Baker)

Stann, Ratcliff, McKenzie is a boring as hell parlay bet. For $100 bucks, I'd make roughly $430 on those 3 guys. If that looks like a great deal for you, go for it, but adding in someone like Alessio or Baker would up the amount to over $1500 easily with a four fight parlay. It's a big chance though especially with Baker. Of course, I'm not completely sold on Ratcliff winning either, but that's what makes betting fun.

Don’t ask me how much to lay down because I’m most certainly in the lower income bracket compared to most people, but I bet fairly big on a regular basis. The key is to keep an initial investment, and that’s it. Don’t delve into your child’s education fund to bet on Rashad Evans over Chuck Liddell.

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