Marcus Aurelio shows what a quick transition game can do...

by LR 4/4/2008 2:18:00 PM

Marcus Aurelio vs Ryan Roberts
by Princenino

Props to CagePotato.com

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Marcus Aurelio | Ryan Roberts | UFC Fight Night 13



UFN 13 Post-Analysis

by LR 4/3/2008 5:20:00 AM

UFC Fight Night 13 proved to live up to what the hype had made it out to be... one exciting show. From the beginning to the end, nearly all of the matchups provided the fans at Broomfield Event Center with spectacular outcomes. The three-hour live event feed on SpikeTV went as planned without any problems, and hopefully gave new fans to the sport a much needed push to get engrossed in the sport as many of us have. After all the great fights, where will everyone end up in the division? Who was impressive and who failed to improve? How did we do on our “crazy” predictions? Let's take a look.

MMA-Analyst.com goes 8-4 in UFN 13 Predictions

I was able to somehow land a huge victory last night with some very obscure picks that differed for much of the MMA community. Picking James Irvin over Houston Alexander put me on top right from the beginning, and I found it odd that Irvin wasn't picked by more blog writers. Alexander has fought Sakara, Silva, and Jardine, but didn't really show unbelievable one-punch knockout power against any of them. Jardine took blow after blow, and Sakara was destroyed more by the knee that Alexander landed that the actual punches. Irvin, on the other hand, has shown one-punch knockout power along with some great knee striking and a dynamic striking game at times. I didn't expect him to put Alexander down in the first flurry though.

Alves over Parisyan was my lock pick of the night. I couldn't stray away from it because I feel Karo doesn't have the finishing abilities to stay away from such a powerful striker in Thiago Alves. Alves's battle with Lytle showed some devastating leg kicks and power punching that was accurate and crushing. Although I felt the stoppage was early, Alves was still putting up a much better standup game than Parisyan.

Nate Diaz has been one of the more impressive fighters as of late. A TUF winner who has been steamrolling opponents isn't that rare when set up with easier competition, but asking for someone like Kurt Pellegrino and then successfully submitted him as he's a BJJ black belt definitely increases your standing. My pick was based on the fact that he's lengthy, holds a high guard, has decent boxing skills, and he has the classic Diaz chin. He's also a gamer, as in he's very tough and will always put up a fight against anyone.

Johnson was my last big win upset. I didn't really see how the fight was even close to be honest. Speer has some power and good wrestling, but Johnson is just flat out explosive, quick, and powerful in one package. Great win for Johnson in very impressive fashion, and he could make waves if he can beat a legitimate name in his upcoming fight.

My four losses were Din Thomas, Joe Lauzon, Tim Boestch, and Frankie Edgar. Din wasn't a solid pick for anyone, and neither was Lauzon. In fact, Lauzon was an underdog upset pick. Florian was very dominating in that battle, and he proved that he has improved significantly. Tim Boestch disappointed me to an extent, but his gas tank died early and his wrestling isn't as good as Hamill's wrestling. Hamill obviously had a strength advantage as well. Edgar was smaller than Maynard, and Maynard maintained a decent sprawl and brawl for awhile before hitting the floor and nullifying Edgar from doing anything.

Joe Schmitt went 4-8, and a lot of other writers out there picked heavy on the favorites. I'm not into buying the odds, and analyzing styles is what garners good picking skills. Karo hasn't fought a power striker like Alves in such a long time, I thought it'd pay off. Alexander, as I said before, really hasn't proven anything yet other than he has no ground skills. Diaz was just a toss'up pick for me, but I really felt Diaz's impressive performances from before were no joke. He was being smashed, but that Diaz mentality got him through this one.

Parlay of the evening: Alves, Johnson, Diaz, Irvin – I won way too much money on that one.

What's next for these guys?

Houston Alexander could potentially be done in the UFC after being labeled “chinny” by James Irvin's superman punch, but would that be beneficial for the UFC? He doesn't land huge salaries or purses from fights, and his power has the potential to provide crushing knockouts, and he also has weaknesses that can also provide the UFC with a quick finish regardless of which fighters wins, Houston or his opponent. Is his popularity enough to keep him going in the UFC? I think he may get one more fight, but it'll be interesting to see who he gets.

Thiago Alves is going to be an explosive challenge to the top of the Welterweight division. He is always in a fight due to his power, but his ground game is going to be the big test for him. A guy like Jon Fitch or Georges St. Pierre may run a clinic on his ground skills. We may also see a rematch between Karo and Alves as well. The stoppage was premature, and the fight wasn't exactly the most exciting either.

Kenny Florian has continued to impress me with the way he can end fights. We would be led to believe that elbows can't be a factor in nearly every single fight that Florian battles, but in his case, they seem to always be a factor. His top control was dominating, and it could very well prove to be a huge weapon against Penn, but to be perfectly honest, Florian isn't the guy who will give Penn a challenge for 3 rounds.

I want to see who Johnson gets next because he has the complete package in the standup game. To an extent, his striking was similar to Anderson Silva's without the fantastic head bobs and weaving for defensive purposes. He was quick, used his reach, and powerful in those lengthy shots. If the UFC matches him up with a challenge, his ground game will be tested soon.

Who will Nate Diaz get next? It's interesting because he has beaten some great BJJ guys on the ground, and he has a knack for getting the guard because most of his opponents believe they can steamroll over him. It's a huge plus when either a takedown or a guard pull can get you in position. Add in the great chin with some able boxing skills on his feet, he could definitely be a force in the future.

Overall thoughts

It was a great event with the exception of having Alves-Parisyan stopped early. I felt that the venue in Colorado hurt some of the battles. In particular, I think Boestch-Hamill could have went another good round with some nice action, but both guys obviously were gassing. Nearly all of the fights that passed the first round had one or both fighters gassing out, and I wonder if the UFC may stray away from the venue due to the problems. I think Kenny had a good idea in coming down weeks ahead of time to adjust, most of the other fighters should take note.

Mike Goldberg had some interesting contradictions during the telecast that were in the same sentence or segment. Come on, man! Rogan was once again venerable in his analysis of the battles, and there wasn't any problems with the sound going out or video losing quality as the show went forward.

This was one of the more exciting events the UFC has put on in quite some time. I definitely hope they can do something like this again in the future, or hopefully use the same format for UFN cards in the future. Unfortunately, featuring so many matchups and fighters on one card could thin out UFC cards down the line, but then again, their stable of fighters is always increasing. Overall Grade: B+

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UFC Fight Night 13



UFN 13 Betting Preview: Potential winnings are huge!

by LR 4/1/2008 12:48:00 PM

This could very well be one of the biggest revenue events for bettors into the sport of mixed martial arts. There are plenty of potential upset picks down the entire card, and some favorable odds for fans to look at. Let's take a look at the odds according to BestFightOdds.com:

BestFightOdds.com

I'd lay some money down on Lauzon here for sure. At +180, he's a solid bet to almost double your money. Both fighters match up well, and BJ Penn's training could land Lauzon with an edge on paper in this fight.

BestFightOdds.com

I'm going to lay a little down on Alves as well. He has tough Muay Thai leg kicks and awesome power in the standup. He's also able to avoid a lot of ground damage that would otherwise neutralize other fighters.

BestFightOdds.com

I love this bet. Irvin has great power, but doesn't have the best defense. He does have the ability to implement a rudimentary ground game that could at least get the job done, but I think we could see a big upset here.

BestFightOdds.com

I find this one hard to believe is true. Speer has fought subpar competition for the most part, while Johnson has a small record but a good win over Chad Reiner. It was a quick KO, and not much could be seen from it, but Johnson has the power to outstrike Speer and the wrestling ability to counter. I'd bet a bit on Johnson here.

BestFightOdds.com

Although I'm picking Diaz, Kurt has an overwhelmingly great shot at winning. This is likely a must bet.

BestFightOdds.com

Bet Boestch. He's better in all areas in my opinion, and he has much better striking.

Rest of the odds...

Din Thomas at -160 doesn't interest me much because Neer could potentially defeat him. It isn't a huge upside on a win either with such great underdog bets available. Guida at -700 is a no action for me, Schiavo doesn't stand a chance in my opinion. Edgar should take out Maynard, and he's pushing -200. It seems just a tad risky, but not enough risk to peak my interest in Maynard. Sotiropoulous should have able submission defense against Mitichyan, so I'm not wasting a bet on Roman with others available. Manny is at -700 and so is Aurelio. They should likely win their matchups, no action there.

There is some solid action on this card, so take advantage. My big bet would land on Boestch, Johnson, or Irvin. All of them stand to have a great chance to win, but there is some risk there obviously. Either way, have fun and check out the odds at BestFightOdds.com.

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UFC Fight Night 13



UFN 13 Preview and Predictions: Upsets anyone?

by LR 4/1/2008 9:49:00 AM

Get ready, fans! This could very well be one of the most exciting cards put together by the UFC in quite some time. UFC Fight Night 13 will take place on Wednesday night from Broomfield Event Center in Broomfield, Colorado, and it will feature a highly anticipated matchup between Kenny Florian and Joe Lauzon. Thiago Alves will also make a step up in competition against Karo Pariysan, and the event will feature well known names such as Matt Hamill, Houston Alexander, Gray Maynard, Frankie Edgar, Din Thomas, Clay Guida, and recent TUF contestants George Sotiropoulous, Roman Mitichyan, Tommy Speer. This could very well be the “Stacked” event we've all been waiting for. Props to Fightlinker for pushing the idea of making this event a 3 hour live televised card. The UFC won't acknowledge it, but I will. Great job, FL.

Before we get to my picks and Joe's predictions, let me just say.. I'm crazy for picking the fights I did, but I felt that there were some solid upset picks in the bunch.

Main Event: Joe Lauzon vs. Kenny Florian

This is a battle that I've been waiting for since it was announced. Kenny Florian's last seven battles have featured the former TUF contestant against some formidable opponents as he progressed up through the ranks. The climax was his loss to Sean Sherk at UFC 64, but he honorably took the fight to decision against a full load in Sherk. After the loss, he defeated Dokonjonosuke Mishima, a tough and explosive Alvin Robinson, and was putting the elbows on Din Thomas before he suffered a blown knee. Riding a three-win streak, Florian will be looking to stop the up-and-coming Joe Lauzon, and potentially win himself a title shot against BJ Penn.

Lauzon has been on a tear recently. He's won his last six fights in finishing fashion with a huge knockout win over former UFC lightweight champion Jens Pulver. The only real problem that Lauzon has had is that the level of competition he has faced has been subpar since Pulver. Melendez wasn't suited well against Lauzon's grappling, and Reinhardt's record was padded with horribly lopsided competition. Lauzon has the striking power in his hands and some excellent boxing skills, but Florian can counter his grappling and has some decent boxing himself. Florian is also very well versed in using his elbows in the ground and pound, and he's as tough as they come. This should be one exciting battle.

Without letting my biased get in the way too much, I'm admittedly a big Joe Lauzon fan. IT geek turned MMA fighter, who doesn't love it? On a purely analytical basis, Lauzon is great in most areas of mixed martial arts. He has great standup, good ground and pound, and can be controlling on the ground. Florian also has similar skills, and I don't believe Lauzon will be able to completely control him. The x-factor here is Lauzon's training at BJ Penn's facility in Hilo, Hawaii. Could it potentially have improved significantly enough to nullify the ground game? I think Lauzon has some ways to end this fight in which Florian may not be able to unless he can catch Lauzon in a submission.

Leland's Prediction: Joe Lauzon via submission, Round 3

This is an extremely close match-up between two above-average fighters. Florian has the better stand-up, but Lauzon has the better wrestling. Lauzon isn’t great at any one thing, but he is good at everything. Lauzon has decent striking, some decent power, good wrestling, and some ferocious ground-and-pound. Florian has good Muay Thai, and is a black belt in Brazilian Jiu-JJitsu. I think Joe will stand with Kenny for a while until he sees an opening to take a shot. From there he will look to work his ground-and-pound, but he will need to avoid Florian’s submissions. I think Joe’s training with BJ Penn will help him on the ground en route to a unanimous decision.

Joe's Prediction: Joe Lauzon via unanimous decision

Karo Parisyan vs. Thiago Alves

Karo has a bit of a task ahead of him in this one. Parisyan has been known recently for winning some weak decisions that were fairly uneventful. Parisyan has some big problems in this fight though, and it's evident if we look at his track record. Parisyan hasn't faced huge power in his last few fights, in fact, his last nine fights haven't featured overwhelming striking. Lytle and Serra could have been seen as potential forces in the standup game, but Serra is mainly a big puncher who hopes for the lucky blow while Lytle was winning his way to decisions back when Parisyan took him on. This will definitely test Parisyan's abilities to avoid the big shots.

Alves has unbelievable Muay Thai strikes, devastating leg kicks, and great striking even when he's backpedaling from danger. I'm going to pick Alves in the upset because of his destructive striking. He finishes fights in crushing fashion, and if Karo allows the fight to go into the later rounds, he has much less of a chance of defeating Parisyan.

Leland's Prediction: Thiago Alves via TKO/KO, Round 2

Alves has done something that is nearly impossible to do: he stopped Christ Lytle in his last fight. However, I don’t think he’s ready for “The Heat.” Karo is extremely durable and brings a relentless attack throughout the fight. In fact, he has only been stopped twice in his career, both by former lightweight champion Sean Sherk. Alves doesn’t have the wrestling to control Karo, and Karo will use his wild stand-up to close the distance and unleash his unique judo game. Fortunately for Karo, I think this is a fight he can actually finish. Expect a submission late in the fight, most likely by kimura.

Joe's Prediction: Karo Parisyan via submission, Round 3

Tim Boestch vs. Matt Hamill

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