UFC 88 Breakthrough: Place your bets!

by Leland Roling 9/6/2008 4:55:00 AM

Make me some money!

UFC 88 had one of the best betting battles that I've seen in quite awhile in Yoshiyuki Yoshida vs. Karo Parisyan. Unfortunately, Parisyan pulled out with a back injury, and Yoshida won't get the chance to prove that he is a force to be reckoned with in the division. Let's check out some of the other bargains that could pay off.

Dan Henderson (-190 to -220) vs. Rousimar Palhares (+190 to +155)

Many fight fans who have followed the sport for quite some time are riding the Henderson bandwagon in this matchup. I would tend to agree that Henderson has the wrestling background to counter Palhares's ground attack, and his standup will be much more seasoned than anything Palhares can bring to the Octagon. Nonetheless, Palhares could be the next Paulo Filho. He has massive power in the submission game, and his transition work is becoming something we should all pay to see. It may be worth a small play.

Kurt Pellegrino (+250 to +230) vs. Thiago Tavares (-325 to -280)

This was a surprise to see Pellegrino at such a huge underdog value. While he has had some performances that haven't been reminiscent of some of his earlier matchups, it is a possibility that he has run into some of the up and coming talent in the UFC in his last few fights, I.e. Nathan Diaz. Tavares had a bad performance against Matt Wiman, or we could simply come to the conclusion that Wiman is improving vastly. Either way, both fighters have something to prove, and they should be evenly matched here. The x-factor comes down to Pellegrino's cardio once again. He has some gritty ground and pound, but Tavares has the slick jiu-jitsu to create some submission attempts. This could be a great line to win on.

Martin Kampmann (+140 to +130) vs. Nate Marquardt (-170 to -150)

Kampmann is probably forgotten by most casual fans, or isn't known whatsoever by the new breed of fans. He is, however, a very explosive striker with the added bonus of some venerable grappling skills on the ground. Marquardt will be able to counter Kampmann on the floor, but can he do so after being wrecked on the feet? We'll find out. Kampmann is the small underdog in this fight, and I believe Kampmann is returning to the form we're accustomed to seeing. He could potentially be making a run for title contention with a win.

Jason Lambert (+140) vs. Jason MacDonald (-180 to -150)

Lambert moves down in weight, but should come into this fight much bigger than MacDonald. It's going to be interesting to see if MacDonald can counter Lambert's controlling top position and ground n' pound. It may be worth a small play on Lambert here since MacDonald doesn't threaten much in the boxing game.

Parlays and stay aways...

I'd be hesitant to be on Matt Hamill at UFC 88. While his wrestling combined with power could cause Franklin some problems, Franklin still has better standup and good jiu-jitsu on the ground to counter Hamill. Stay away from Rashad Evans! He won't have the range to reach Chuck, and Chuck has enough experience to counter Rashad's wrestling tactics. Liddell also has uncanny takedown defense.

Want to be ballsy? Kampmann, Lambert, Pellegrino, Palhares? That's a bit of a suicide move. I believe Lambert could potentially control MacDonald, but the payoff isn't huge. I like Kampmann as a single bet, but betting Palhares against such an experienced veteran like Dan Henderson is tough. Parlays may not be the way to go in this event, but if the upsets occur... huge money can be made.

What are your suggestions? Any good parlays heading your way? Let us know, keep the comments coming.

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UFC 88 Breakthrough: Preview & Staff Predictions

by Leland Roling 9/5/2008 4:16:00 PM

Time has been hard to come by as of late, but I've managed to fit some in-depth analysis in for some of the upcoming UFC events as we head into September. We start out the UFC's month with a fairly lackluster fight card in UFC 88: Breakthrough. Liddell vs. Evans, Franklin vs. Hamill, and Henderson vs. Palhares aren't blockbuster battles that casual fans will be clamoring over in the hours leading up to the event. Nonetheless, let's take a look at some of the battles we'll see on Saturday night.

Chuck Liddell vs. Rashad Evans

Let's face it... this isn't a main event headlining fight to anyone who follows the UFC adamantly. Chuck Liddell holds wins over some of the best fighters in the world while Rashad Evans has decisioned himself to an 11-0-1 undefeated record. At 21-5, Liddell is arguably one of the top light heavyweights in the world, and he's the UFC's money making public icon to the sport. His status alone with the UFC gives him a shot at redeeming most of his key losses on the way back to the title. Could this fight be one of those redeeming wins that would jolt him back into the title picture? I wouldn't put it past the UFC no matter how much I disagree with it.

Striking is going to be the major difference in this matchup. Liddell is not only a seasoned veteran of the sport, but he's one of the most lethal strikers in the light heavyweight division. Using strafing movements and odd angles to land blows, he'll likely work a ranged striking game while keeping away from Rashad's strengths in the wrestling game.

Evans doesn't have anything to offer in this fight. He can't fight at range with Liddell. He lacks knockout power in the striking game. His wrestling abilities will likely be countered by Liddell's takedown defense, and he'll almost assuredly become mincemeat if he tries to shoot for a takedown with Liddell's sprawl. How can Rashad win this fight? Unless we see a vast improvement and much more dynamic mixture of his skills, Liddell should easily win this fight.

Leland's Prediction: Chuck Liddell via TKO/KO, Round 2

Rich Franklin vs. Matt Hamill

Franklin's move to 205 could become an interesting battle on the ground if Hamill's power is as overwhelming as we've seen in some of his past battles. Hamill registers at 6'2” while Franklin comes in around 6'1”. Hamill should technically have the muscle and length to make this an interesting matchup. However, Hamill's striking game is still in a developing stage. Franklin, on the other hand, is seasoned in crushing opponents from the top position. It makes for some contemplating as to how this fight could work itself out.

Franklin's experience and power should help him prevail over a rather green Matt Hamill. Not only is his striking much more seasoned and powerful, but he still has an able ground game to counter Hamill. Franklin will be tough to overpower as well, but Hamill does have the strength to potentially do just that. I wouldn't count on it happening though.

Leland's Prediction: Rich Franklin via TKO/KO, Round 2

Dan Henderson vs. Rousimar Palhares

I was a bit torn on this matchup when it was first announced to be occurring at UFC 88. Palhares has the potential to become the next Paulo Filho. A powerful submission fighter with improving standup and great transitioning skills, Palhares presents some problems for Henderson. Can he actually submit Henderson? Unless Palhares can prove that his jiu-jitsu is in the arena of the Nogueira brothers or Anderson Silva, I'm definitely leaning toward a “No” answer.

Henderson will have the advantage on his feet with some good striking skills coupled with fantastic power in his hands. Palhares will be looking to push this battle to the floor quickly to use his power grips to submit Henderson. If Henderson doesn't pay attention, he could potentially fall victim to a signature leglock from Palhares. I still expect Henderson to be careful and squeak out a decision win over Palhares.

Leland's Prediction: Dan Henderson via decision

Martin Kampmann vs. Nate Marquardt
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UFC 88 Breakthrough: MMA-Analyst.com's Joe Schmitt breaks it down...

by Joe Schmitt 9/5/2008 12:09:00 PM

First off, let me issue another quick apology for not getting any articles up this week. Things have been especially crazy for Leland and I over the past few months, and things are finally settling down. I hope to continue posting on a semi-regular basis and hopefully we'll be back in full swing before long.

This weekend, UFC 88 heads to Atlanta, Georgia. I'm going to skip the usually fighter introductions because truthfully, those can be found anywhere on the net. Let's get to the real reason we write these articles, the predictions and analysis.

Chuck Liddell vs. Rashad Evans

Chuck Liddell comes into this fight after winning a unanimous decision over former PRIDE middleweight champion, Wanderlei Silva. Chuck and Wanderlei had an epic three round war that was nothing short of spectacular.

Rashad comes into this fight having won a controversial split-decision over Michael Bisping. He is the TUF 2 heavyweight winner and is undefeated in his career.

Simply put, Chuck destroys grapplers. It's really hard for me to find anyway for Rashad Evans to win this fight outside of a lucky punch or kick. Chuck has excellent takedown defense and is able to utilize good footwork and work angles to effectively counter punch his way to victory. Rashad has one benefit on his side. He trains with Greg Jackson and his teammate, Keith Jardine, was able to defeat Liddell. The problem for Rashad is that he doesn't possess the leg kicks needed to keep Chuck at bay. I believe this fight will look similar to Chuck and Tito's two fights with Rashad looking to shoot sporadically and getting pounded on the feet.

Joe's Prediction: Chuck Liddell via T/KO round 2.

Rich Franklin vs. Matt Hamill

Rich Franklin looks to make his return to the light heavyweight division against former TUF contestant Matt Hamill. Hamill is a Division III wrestler that has show good power inside the Octagon. I have went back and forth on this fight a little bit only because of Franklin's jump in weight. Hamill will be decidedly bigger and will most likely have the power advantage. Rich will want to keep this fight on the feet and try to take advantage of Hamill's sloppy stand up defense. Hamill has big power in his punches and pushes a relentless pace. He always comes forward, but the thing that scares me is that sometimes he drops his hands to his sides and swings looping punches. If Franklin can keep this fight on the feet and avoid Hammil's takedowns, which is no small task I might add, then he can definitely win this fight. Hamill needs to relentlessly push the pace and keep Rich on his heels. When he sees an opportunity, he needs to put Rich on his back. From there, Hamill must have improved on his top control to keep Rich neutralized. I don't think he'll be able to do it, and I think this will be a closer fight than most expect.

Joe's Prediction: Rich Franklin via Unanimous Decision.

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