UFC 81: Our Extensive Preview and Predictions

by LR 2/1/2008 7:28:00 AM

On Saturday night, a new Heavyweight champion will be crowned and the birth or re-birth of a career will happen for one particular fighter. Brock Lesnar will be looking to start a new career as a mixed martial arts fighter as he makes the crossover from entertainment-style pro wrestling to the fight game. His opponent, Frank Mir, hopes to impress the Mandalay Bay crowd by showing us a bit of the old Frank Mir that won the UFC Heavyweight title at one point.

The UFC's Heavyweight title will also be on the line as Tim Sylvia will take on former PRIDE Heavyweight champion Antonio Rodrigo “Minotauro” Nogueira. The fight has been deemed the “interim” title bout, but it seems to merely be a tactic to keep Couture within his contract limits. This should determine the real champion. The card will also feature a lightweight bout between Tyson Griffin and Gleison Tibau, a battle between middleweights Terry Martin and Marvin Eastman, and the return of Ricardo Almeida to MMA. Jeremy Horn will also make a return to the UFC in a matchup against possible contender Nathan Marquardt.

Main Event: Brock Lesnar vs. Frank Mir
Heavyweight Division

Brock Lesnar (1-0) is a complete unknown in the sport of mixed martial arts. His lone match against Min Soo Kim at K-1 Dynamite in June proved that Lesnar can at least pass guard and take down an opponent, but Kim wasn't exactly the prototypical litmus test to see if Lesnar has what it takes to be a champion. Frank Mir (10-3) could possibly be that test.

Mir is a world class jiu-jitsu practitioner with a plethora of weapons on the ground in the form of a wealth of knowledge in the submission game. That's where it ends for Frank Mir. He has the phenomenal ability to end the fight quickly once on the ground, but his standup is lacking. He isn't particularly dangerous in the striking game, and being on the ground with a much bigger, much strong Brock Lesnar could be his downfall.

Lesnar brings a wealth of wrestling credentials to the MMA world. He finished his collegiate career as a two-time NJCAA All-American, two-time NCAA All-American, two-time Big Ten Champion, and the 2000 NCAA heavyweight champion, finishing with a ridiculous record of 106-5 overall. There is no doubt that he will have good takedown abilities, and it will be very tough to deal with Lesnar's strength. Lesnar also seems to be fairly light on his feet. It's been said that he has some decent striking and quick footwork, but those skills will be proven on Saturday night. Can Lesnar avoid the submission? That's the big question.

I simply can't pick Frank Mir in this fight for a few reasons. He won't be as strong as Lesnar, and Lesnar's wrestling skills will be tough to counter with the amount of power he has. Mir's standup is horrible, and it'd have to improve considerable if Lesnar is to be in danger of being knocked out. Mir has had too many lackluster performances in the past as well, and his cardio is always a question later in the fight.

Leland's Prediction: Brock Lesnar via TKO, Round 2

From the moment this fight starts, I look for Lesnar to immediately shoot on Mir and begin to work some ground-and-pound. The question that needs to be answered is this: Is Mir going to have an answer for Lesnar from his back? Many people think so, but I don’t. I think Lesnar’s strength and wrestling ability will overpower Mir.

I can guarantee you that Lesnar has been doing nothing but training submission defense and polishing up his wrestling. If I was Mir, I would think about throwing knees sporadically. He may catch Lesnar with a knee when he shoots for a takedown. However, I think there’s a slim chance that happens. Look for a stoppage in the second round from strikes.

Joe's Prediction: Brock Lesnar via TKO, Round 2

Over aggressive wrestling is not uncommon among relatively green fighters.  They stay in the danger-zone for far too long and the result is often a submission loss. Mir is vet so he’ll no doubt be relaxed entering the fight.  All the pressure is on the Lesnar as a result of his self aggrandizement, while Mir is simply on the comeback trail with the chance to fell the new kid in town. I’m going against my gut feeling, and taking Mir with a triangle-choke win.

John’s Prediction: Frank Mir via submission, Round 2
__________________________________

Tim Sylvia vs. Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira
Heavyweight Division

Tim Sylvia (24-3) will try to win the UFC title once again as he takes on the iron chin of Antonio Nogueira. Sylvia comes into this bout after much criticism over his win over Brandon Vera. In the bout, Sylvia and Vera both had moments in which leaning on each other was a tactic to extend the matchup and cause the crowd to boo in disapproval. Sylvia simply did what he could to win the fight, and Vera broke his hand in the first round that made his striking completely useless.

This isn't the first time Sylvia has been labeled being the cause of a boring fight. His style consists of straight jabs, some kicks, and clinches, but never any ground game. He usually tries to move in and out and rarely allows himself to get in a spot to be taken down. His main weapon in many of his fights is his physical size and reach, and it makes for some boring standup battles in which his opponents can't seem to find a way to get inside or take him down.

With that said, Nogueira has a tough task ahead of him. He has excellent jiu-jitsu skills on the ground, and has some phenomenal boxing skills on his feet. The only problem is that he will lack reach on Sylvia, and it will be hard not to take heavy blows trying to get inside on Sylvia. Unless Nogueira can work a clinch and somehow put the big man down, it's going to be a downhill battle for Nogueira in the beginning. The best chance he has is by tiring Sylvia and hopefully getting him to the floor.

Can he actually achieve that goal? I can't decide, and this is the toughest pick I've had in awhile. Nogueira has taken beatings from the best in the world. Fedor crushed him with blows, and he still managed to last. He has an iron chin, great boxing, and excellent ground tactics. I have faith that he can take down Sylvia, especially considering Vera was able to do so at least once in his fight. That may be all it takes. I'll go with the long shot.

Leland's Prediction: Antonio Nogueira via submission, Round 4

I’ve went back-and-forth on this fight the last couple of days. I’ve watched a plethora of tape on both fighters. The key to winning for Nogueira is obvious; he must get this fight to the ground. Nogueira has good boxing, but he’s going to have to work on the inside. Sylvia is going to want to stay away from Nogueira and paw at him with his jab. I can see Tim using the same style he beat Brandon Vera with. Close the distance quick with strikes and push Nogueira against the fence.

Nogueira is going to have a tough time getting inside on Tim as he doesn’t throw many hooks. He likes to throw combinations straight down the middle which leaves his opponent no room to work on the inside. If Nogueira watched any tape, he’ll know that Tim throws a lazy left jab and that he can counter that with an overhand right. I think Nogueira’s chin can keep him in the fight long enough to get Tim to the floor and submit him.

Joe's Prediction: Antonio Nogueira via submission, Round 3

I look at the two, and simply think Nogueira is a better fighter. Minotauro has better submission skills than anyone Timmy has faced (Mir included) and has also shown real susceptibility to the combination of quick hands and control on the ground.  I see this playing out much like the battle with Couture.  As the rounds wear on, the fight gets farther from Sylvia’s reach.  Minotauro grinds out a signature win.

John’s Prediction: Antonio Nogueira via unanimous decision
__________________________________

See our predictions on the other matchups including Griffin vs. Tibau, Eastman vs. Martin, Horn vs. Marquardt, and the rest of the card by clicking More...

More...


MMA’s wrestling elite and the disparity in skills

by LR 1/30/2008 5:16:00 AM

Brock Lesnar’s debut in the UFC has brought about a question that has been asked by mixed martial arts fans for some time now. Can a professional wrestler transition from an entertainment-based wrestling promotion to a real life, in-your-face martial arts promotion in which fights are battle in an eight-sided cage and a fight can be ended by a breakage? It’s the sole question that drives the UFC to create this fight, sign Lesnar to a contract, and to see if the wrestling fanbase will tune in and watch the matchup as well. It’s an interest in numbers from a business standpoint.

From a mixed martial arts fan’s standpoint, the question doesn’t add dollar signs to the equation. Instead, it offers something that many fans haven’t seen before.  A very large, intimidating, muscle-ridden wrestling monster against a black belt in jiu-jitsu with much more experience than his opponent is the matchup that is being advertised. It’s reminiscent of Gracie vs. Severn, but without the ridiculous weight difference. Mir vs. Lesnar will prove to be our modern day comparison in a smaller capacity.

The more important question is whether or not Brock Lesnar can actually win this fight. The entire MMA community seems to be split down the middle on this one. One half says that Lesnar will simply crush Mir from the top, and the other half says that Mir will transition to a submission to win the fight. In order to get a good grasp at what Brock needs to do in order to win; we can look historically at successful wrestlers in mixed martial arts.

Historical numbers

Fortunately for us, Dave Meltzer over at Yahoo! Sports dug up the dirt on the wrestling elite that have made their way into mixed martial arts. Most notably, he names off Randy Couture, Chuck Liddell, “Rampage” Jackson, Dan Henderson, Matt Hughes, and Josh Koscheck along with a slew of other names as high level amateur wrestlers who made the transition to MMA.

The two key factors in the successful reigns of some of the sport’s elite wrestlers have been some great strategizing and the evolution of their own skillsets beyond wrestling. Couture is a master at creating gameplans that counter the exact set of skills his opponent will use. He doesn’t wait to be stuck in his opponent’s own game, but instead imposes his own gameplan on his opponent.

Other fighters have simply improved their other skills so much over time that their wrestling has become their defensive weapon. Chuck Liddell’s primary weapons are his fists, and he uses a counter-striking tactic that isn’t seen in wrestling ground and pound fighters too often. He does, however, use his wrestling ability to stuff takedowns and get himself out of jams, and did use his takedown abilities to stop Wanderlei Silva from mounting an offensive late in their matchup at UFC 79.

The main point here is that a good gameplan and a strong skillset are ideal for a wrestler in mixed martial arts. Wrestling is known as the easiest combative sport to transition from into MMA because its base skills are significantly useful to fighters in the sport. It’s an advantage. The problem is that many wrestlers who have gone on to be defeated in the cage haven’t taken the time to improve their other skills. Some wrestlers hit the Octagon without any striking training, and simply think they can takedown their opponents and thrash them. We know from experience that this doesn’t necessarily mean victory. Lesnar’s other skills will definitely make or break him in this fight.

More...

Be the first to rate this post

  • Currently 0/5 Stars.
  • 1
  • 2
  • 3
  • 4
  • 5

Tags:

Brock Lesnar | Frank Mir | UFC 81



Sylvia or Nogueira: Who do you have? Randy says Tim will win!

by LR 1/28/2008 9:32:00 AM
Baltimore Sun

Calgary Sun had an article up that had a quote from Randy Couture regarding the Tim Sylvia vs. Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira interim title bout:

"I think it's going to be a good fight. I'm a fan of the sport first and foremost. I think it's an interesting matchup. Nogueira's strength tends to be on the ground and in the submission game and Tim is just a long, strong hard to take down guy who's got great striking abilities. It's a classic matchup and for the interim title so they both have a lot on the line. I like Tim's chances in that fight given Nogueira's performace against Heath Herring in the last fight. I like Sylvia in a stoppage of some kind." 

So, can the uncanny predictor in Randy Couture be right this time? He went south in some recent event predictions, but when it comes to big fights and we're leaning on the fence on who to pick, Couture seems to be the man with the answer.

For me, Couture produces a good assessment of the stylistic matchup between both fighters. Nogueira is strongest on the ground. Sylvia is strongest on his feet. Naturally, this would mean that Nogueira would have to take down Tim Sylvia and submit him. Even with Sylvia on the floor, it's still a massive task for "Minotauro" to submit the giant.

There are two factors that come into play in my mind when it comes to this fight. First, the standup skills of Antonio Nogueira. He'll have a significant reach disadvantage to Sylvia, and Sylvia tends to throw straight punches that are very hard to dodge and withstand for any amount of time. Nogueira is renowned for using the Cuban National boxing team as a training center for his striking skills, and we've seen improvement over time in those skills. Nogueira's boxing in the cage still doesn't contain the traditional bob and weaves that we may see from smaller, more compact fighters, but his hands have shown more quickness in every matchup. In my mind, Nogueira's defense in the striking is a huge key to putting Sylvia down.

Some say defense wins championships. In this case, it may be true. If Nogueira can avoid damage and find a way to put Sylvia to the ground, look for his jiu-jitsu instincts to submit Big Tim. If Tim keeps this fight on the feet, I have no doubt that Tim Sylvia can stop Antonio Nogueira. Nogueira has an iron chin, great ground skills, and solid boxing, but he lacks the size that Sylvia physically presents. It's a damn shame that I'm a sucker for underdogs. I'll most likely go with PRIDE memories and pick Nogueira, although I'm leaning toward Sylvia due to his size and striking. It's a toss-up.

How do you feel about it? Lend us your thoughts in our comments section.

Currently rated 3.7 by 3 people

  • Currently 3.666667/5 Stars.
  • 1
  • 2
  • 3
  • 4
  • 5

Tags:

Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira | Tim Sylvia | UFC 81



UFC Rundown: New matchups announced

by LR 1/23/2008 4:41:00 AM
mmarulez.files.wordpress.com

The UFC has been hitting the news wire frequently as of late with fighters beginning to reveal their potential matchups for their upcoming fights. Some of them are quite interesting due to the influx of newer talent that the UFC seems to be bringing along. The future is always a concern, and it looks like the UFC is giving some guys a chance to make a splash in their careers. Let's take a look.

Josh Koscheck vs. Dustin Hazelett - UFC 82

This matchup is a bit deceptive. Most people see this fight as a one-sided affair with Koscheck's outstanding wrestling pedigree dominating an unknown Dustin Hazelett. The problem here is that most fans don't see Hazelett fight since he has been featured mainly on undercards.

Hazelett (10-3) has had some phenomenal performances as of late in the cage. He submitted Jonathan Goulet at UFN 11 in impressive fashion scoring an armbar victory in just 1:14 into the first round. He's currently on a three-fight win streak, and this is definitely a move in the right direction as his skills improve.

Koscheck will be looking to begin another ascension into the upper ranks, but Hazelett's jiu-jitsu could prove to be troublesome. Nonetheless, Koscheck's top control is good, and he could essentially make another run for the title.

David Heath vs. Tim Boetsch - UFC 81

After Heath's bout was scratched from UFC 81 due to an injured Thomas Drwal, the UFC put the light heavyweight back on the card and paired him up with newcomer Tim Boetsch (6-1).

Boetsch is primarily known for his 2007 IFL semifinal battle with "The Janitor" Vladmir Matyushenko. In his only career loss, Boetsch did show an ability to survive against the technically better Matyushenko. Many consider Vladmir to still be quality UFC material, and with Boetsch taking him the distance and being a fairly green fighter, he could improve dramatically in the coming months. He'll get his chance to make something happen against Heath.

Heath hasn't been exactly impressive in his last two fights. To be fair however, Renato Sobral is a world-class grappler and Lyoto Machida could very well be a dark horse candidate for the title. Boetsch isn't at their skill level, so it should be litmus test for Boetsch, and a gauge to see where Heath is at right now.

Diego Sanchez vs. David Bielkheden - UFC 82

Although I'm still holding out for news after this fight that Marcus Davis may fight Diego, Sanchez does need to fight another battle before that can potentially happen. The UFC seems to think so as well.

Diego will be matched up with David Bielkheden (12-5). This puts an end to the rumors that Diego would fight Roan Carneiro. It also marks another Swede making his debut in the UFC, a market that the UFC seems to be hitting hard now. Per Eklund, fellow Swede, was defeated by Sam Stout in a spirited effort at UFC 80 this last weekend.

Bielkheden holds a win over current UFC fighter Charles McCarthy although it was back in February of 2004. The most notable matchup on his record is taking on Mitsuhiro Ishida at PRIDE Bushido 13 in November of 2006, dropping a decision to the Japanese wrestler.

He should prove to be an able test for Sanchez even though his name isn't known in the casual fanbase. He's a BTT member, and will have good training partners to supplement his skillset training. With a well-rounded grappling game and some power at times, he could be an upset pick.

Be the first to rate this post

  • Currently 0/5 Stars.
  • 1
  • 2
  • 3
  • 4
  • 5

Tags:

David Heath | Diego Sanchez | Dustin Hazelett | Josh Koscheck | UFC 81 | UFC 82 | Tim Boetsch | David Bielkheden



Lesnar vs. Mir: Is Mir's Confidence back?

by LR 1/22/2008 8:01:00 AM
NBC Sports
As we begin to approach February, the Brock Lesnar vs. Frank Mir matchup is beginning to see more sunshine in the media. Dave Meltzer wrote an article today profiling the stylistic matchup, the fanbase split between WWE fans and UFC patrons, and the reasoning behind Lesnar's paycheck. All interesting details and opinions revolving around a matchup that pits a fake wrestler with actual wrestling credentials against a broken down submission artist who may have one of the most dynamic and vast ground skillsets in the UFC. Why should you be interested?

A Tough Sell

This matchup is a tough sell for a number of reasons. Although it should sell great to the fans as it will work the angle of WWE fans wanting to see the fake entertainment wrestling icon take on real fighters, it looks like a David vs. Goliath matchup in many regards.

Lesnar has what is said to be unbelievable power. He has been lifting grown men for years above his head and dishing out what looks like immense punishment for the cameras for quite some time. Dealing with his physique alone in the cage will be a task in itself. Can Frank Mir really withstand an onslaught from Brock Lesnar and show that jiu-jitsu prevails over brute power? Is this a Royce Gracie seminar in the making?

It's very tough to tell, and the fanbase is even more split than originally thought. Many fans claim it's a cakewalk for Lesnar. Brute power with huge size on top of Mir will just crush him. Others claim that Mir just needs that one opening and one transition to end it. The fans are correct in both arguments, but which will happen first?

The X-Factor for Mir: Confidence

There is one aspect of Frank Mir that hasn't been mentioned in quite some time, and it regards his sudden turn around. Interviews that were done after his last fight indicated his new found confidence in his leg, horribly broken in a motorcycle accident back in September 2004. He also suffered massive tendon and muscle damage from the accident.

One of the comments Mir stated was that in his fight against Hardonk, it was the first time he had felt that his leg wasn't going to break at the instant a kick hit it. He wasn't scared to take a shot to his leg. According to Mir when questioned about previous fights, he mentioned that he was very unconfident in the ability of his leg to withstand a shot or submission hold.

I found these comments to be intriguing because if you watch some of the tape on those fights, it's evident that in some instances, Mir is protecting the leg and is flat footed because of it.

People make excuses, but the bigger story here is that Mir simply wasn't confident in his abilities to win. He had lackluster performances, and he took a few defeats in the process. Can Frank Mir prove to us in February that his confidence is back, and that his skills in the Octagon can defeat the Goliath? A confident Frank Mir with the amount of jiu-jitsu skill that he possesses could prove to knock off the giant.

Currently rated 5.0 by 1 people

  • Currently 5/5 Stars.
  • 1
  • 2
  • 3
  • 4
  • 5

Tags:

Brock Lesnar | Frank Mir | UFC 81





Our Writers

  • Leland Roling - Editor
  • Joe Schmitt - Staff Writer
  • John McKiernan - Staff Writer
  • Matthew Watt - Staff Writer