Babalu's meltdown: Harsh punishment or what he deserved?

by LR 8/30/2007 12:34:00 PM

Renato Sobral... to many MMA fans, he is considered one of the better MMA light heavyweights in the world. With a record of 28-7 in his MMA career, Sobral has fought in the ring against such big name fighters as Chuck Liddell, Kevin Randleman, Fedor Emelianenko, and even beat 3 fighters in one night at the IFC Global Domination event in September of 2003. Two of those fighters being "Shogun" Rua and Jeremy Horn. A very impressive record to say the least, but recently his fight career has taken a backseat to Babalu's troubled life outside of MMA. On July 14th of this year, he was arrested at the Seminole Indian Reservation Casino in Tampa, Florida and charged with two misdemeanors, one for assault and other for trespassing. This really isn't big news in the sporting world. Numerous athletes have been arrested, convicted, and still came back and made millions, i.e. Mike Tyson. The UFC fighter was in the spotlight for a day in the MMA community, but this was an offense outside the Octagon. Nobody really thought what happened on August 25th at UFC 74 would come from a guy like "Babalu" Sobral and put the sport in the spotlight instead of just himself.

The Incident

David Heath and "Babalu" Sobral squared off in their matchup at UFC 74 just like any other fight on any other card. "Babalu" had lost his last two fights and was out to prove he belonged in the UFC. David Heath was 7-1, and his last fight against Lyoto Machida was his only blemish. It was quite possibly shaping up to be a great battle, but when Steve Mazzagatti signaled the beginning of the fight; it soon became a "Babalu" Sobral beatdown. Sobral controlled most of the fight, taking down Heath at will and beating him senseless with huge elbow blows and straight punches from the guard. It became apparent after a huge gash opened up on Heath's head that this was one of the bloodiest UFC fights we've seen to date. When the fight was clearly about to end, Sobral's sunk in Anaconda Choke caused David Heath to tap. Normally in nearly all MMA matches, the fighter submitting their opponent lets go. This instance was different. "Babalu" had a vengeance against David Heath and wanted to teach him a lesson about disrespecting him. Sobral held onto the choke for two to three seconds after the Mazzagatti signaled an end to the fight and caused Heath to fall unconscious. Mazzagatti tapped on "Babalu"'s shoulder, and then tried to yank him off to no avail. Once Heath was out cold, Sobral let go and went on his way to take the victory. In the post-fight interview, Sobral claimed Heath was "cursing at him during weigh-ins" and wanted to "teach him a lesson".¹This incident has set off a hail storm of media and MMA community discussion as to what the punishment should be, what does this do to the sport, and how hard should he be punished because it does effect the sport as a whole. Let's look further into why this one incident at UFC 74 really has been blown up and possibly has major implications to the future of the UFC.

The Sentence

There isn't a complete sentence yet. The NSAC's executive director Keith Kizer handed down a withholding of Sobral's win bonus of $25,000 while the commission convenes to determine a more suitable punishment for Sobral's actions. Sobral not only openly admitted in the post-fight interviews to choking out David Heath on purpose, but he then lied to Keith Kizer in a behind-the-scenes questioning that he really didn't do it purposely but was rather making sure he was submitted.²To top off a potential fine and suspension, Sobral's UFC contract was also cut due to the incident; although Dana White claims he was planning on cutting Sobral's contract before the incident even occurred.³Obviously, Sobral's decision making abilities at this time were lacking, and he clearly realized he made a huge mistake. With that being said, let's hit the first big question... what should his punishment be?

Harsh Punishment?

One thing that I have seen throughout the community is the urge to try to gauge what a good punishment should be. It's very hard to determine when you are comparing what happened at UFC 74 to other sporting incidents in the past. There are many people that refer to light heavyweight boxing champion Bernard Hopkins shoving his opponent at a weigh-in and then subsequently being fined $200,000 by the commission.⁵ For a shove? So what does that mean for Sobral's actions? He choked a man out unconscious in an MMA bout. According to the NSAC's fine on Bernard Hopkins, we would have to literally multiply Hopkin's fine by 3 or 4 and probably ban him for life because a choke is FAR from a shove. It seems ridiculous that a shove would garner that big of a fine. But what other incidents were there in sports that resulted in big fines or suspensions:

Zindane was fined 3,260 pounds and 3 games by FIFA Soccer for head butting Marco Materazzi after Materazzi called Zindane's sister a whore during the World Cup Final.
MLB has a 20 game suspension in place for first-time steroid offenders. Players still keep their contracts.
Cubs catcher Michael Barrett, who sucker-punched Sox base runner A.J. Pierzynski, received a 10 game suspension.
Marty McSorley hit Donald Brashear over the head with a hockey stick during league play, 23 game suspension and the playoffs.

Do these incidents add up to what Sobral did? Marty McSorely's hit to Donald Brashear's cranium was much worse, very life threatening, and very stupid. It scarred the sport even more than it already had been by the non-hockey fan. But none of these guys face their contracts being completely dumped. Each team lets the league office handle the suspensions and they follow those suspensions. The MMA world is completely different and so is the UFC. In the UFC, Dana White is the President, but the Athletic Commission for the state that the event is being run in is the league office. The team isn't a team, it's an individual. So, instead of suspending a guy for 20 games and screwing his team out of his play for awhile, a fighter must have a more harsh punishment to get the point across. Sobral gets his contract cut by the UFC. In fighting sports, commissions hit you in the pocketbook. They kill your livelihood as well with suspensions. To be honest, this is one of the most effective ways I can think of to get rid of something in MMA and Boxing. If you screw up, we end your right to make money in this sport for a period of time... that's what they are saying. They haven't come to a suspension conclusion yet, but for now, Sobral can sign a new contract somewhere else. White mentioned that he would be open for discussion on a new contract at a later time, but for now, Sobral is a free agent.⁷So is this a harsh punishment for the MMA fans to handle? Do we really want Dana White to cut Sobral's contract and risk losing one of the better heavyweights in the UFC?

Some would argue that Sobral's worth is underestimated as well. Wouldn't this help his hype? In my opinion, yes. Look at Tito Ortiz. Some of his highest PPV buys for events were on cards where he worked the angle of the bad guy to perfection. He talked a bunch of smack weeks before the fight, and people tuned in to see him get his ass beat down. Usually, he came out on top and fans had to buy another PPV later to hope to see his cocky attitude get blown away by another fighter. Sobral could work the same angle. His short fuse works perfectly into it as well. I see more benefit for the UFC to exploit it. Again, this is some thinking that has been thrown around the Internet in recent days.

The Big Picture

If the ruling stands and Dana White decides to never sign Sobral back, what was the big picture for the UFC? The UFC was sending a message. The message is that they want to be a classy organization that is respectful and has a duty to protect its fighters. And I completely agree with that image. These fighters may be gladiators, but they don't need to act like that outside the Octagon, or after they've already won the fight. You don't see Randy Couture lugging himself around Vegas fighting anyone on the street to prove he's the best. He's proven it where he needs to prove it, he's an ambassador to the sport, and he's a class act. Every fighter should take a lesson from Randy Couture.

With that said, a clear message has been sent to the fighters that choking someone out when it was uncalled for will result in some harsh punishment.There are also other big picture items that the UFC could be looking at. What if other commissions see this and decide not to sanction an UFC event in their state because of it? What if sponsors pull plugs because they don't want to be associated with an organization that allowed this to happen? These are all big possibilities. Dana White was probably already thinking of these possibilities right after it happened, and he really was brave in sweeping it under the table after he did what was needed to be done. The only real fortunate thing about the incident was that it wasn't seen by very many people. The 11,000+ crowd at the event and the trickling amount of MMA fans rushing to video sites to see the fight online before Zuffa scrambled to take it down. 30,000 maybe? Not having that fight on PPV saved the UFC a lot of media coverage that would normally bury the UFC for that type of incident.

I want to squeeze one opinion into this section that I think is on some MMA fans' minds. How come some of these steroid ridden athletes who tested positive before are back? What's funny about this statement is there have actually been very harsh penalties in other sports for even one positive test. Olympic sports like Track & Field have horribly bad punishments. Lifetime bans aren't completely uncommon. If you test positive in the UFC, it's much like a MLB player... the commission or league office handles it and that's that. Or if you are Dana White's best friend, then you are completely safe from contract termination. I find it very disorganized and I could see it potentially becoming a problem down the road.

My Take

My initial stance was that I thought the punishment was absurd. The UFC cuts his contract and he will likely face a fairly large fine from the NSAC. I mean, if a guy got fined $200,000 for a shove... incidently it caused a huge brawl, but fined $200,000 nonetheless for a shove, what will Sobral get? I'm sure it will be significantly lower considering the monetary wages the fighters get in the UFC is much lower than boxing. But my stance changed after White stated that he was going to most likely cancel Sobral's contract with or without the incident occurring. I agree that the man should pay a fine. Cutting his contract, after a thought process on the matter, is somewhat of a cop out. He can just move on and collect a paycheck from another organization. He doesn't learn a lesson from that. His contract was going to be cut anyways, so he moves on after he chokes a guy out and keeps making money. Basically, his pay was equivalent to losing the match to David Heath. He moves on, no foul. Wrong. He needs to be hit in the pocketbook harder, and he needs to realize that if you do that, you will not fight. I have a feeling we will see a suspension handed down from the NSAC, and that was my initial thought as to what should happen to Sobral. A fine with suspension.

I also heard a very good comparison somewhat mentioned on the Savage Dog Show on Sherdog by Jeff Sherwood. One example of this situation is baseball. One specific situation. Let's consider this... Yankees vs. Blue Jays, Clemens gets suspended for 5 games because he threw at a Blue Jay batter after Jesse Litsch and Josh Towers threw at Yankees players. Clemens was warned before he came out not to throw, but he did it anyways. He threw at a guy with a 90+ mph fastball, and hit a batter dead center in the middle of the back. How is this situation similar? Clemens was warned before the incident. Sobral knew that keeping a choke going after he was tapped to stop was illegal. Clemens went out and threw a possibly fatal pitch AT a hitter. Sobral choked out David Heath with a small chance of causing damage due to loss of oxygen. Both incidents have consequences that could end badly. So where is Roger Clemen's contract? Still in place. And why? Most likely because throwing at players or brushing players off the plate in commonplace in the MLB. MLB players also make millions of dollars a year just to play minus the endorsements. The consequence in this situation is the key to the incident's differences. They are similar incidents in the setup and execution, but the consequence is completely different. One is considered part of the game, and the other is considered ruthless. Just something to think about, not an opinion.

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Tags: renato sobral, david heath, ufc 74, keith kizer

UFC 74 Post-Fight Breakdown and Analysis: Part 2 of 2

by LR 8/28/2007 12:14:00 PM

The rest of the fights on the card with the exception of the Grove/Cote fight were all untelevised fights that were not shown on the Pay-Per-View portion. I have seen all of the fights and do have some good analysis and insight on each of those fights in our second part to our breakdown of the UFC 74 fight card.

Kendall Grove vs. Patrick Cote

Cote came out quick and pushed Kendall back with a quick combo to start the fight. Cote threw another combo and then clinched Kendall into the cage and tied him up. The strategy for Cote seemed to be similar to Randy Couture's strategy in that he closed the gap between himself and Gonzaga. In this first round, Cote clamped Grove to the fence and dirty boxed a few punches into Grove's midsection as he tried to close the gap so Grove could not use his size advantage or reach. Eventually, Herb Dean broke up the clinch and separated the fighters since Cote was not doing enough to keep the clinch going. Cote came out from the clinch assaulting Grove's legs with low leg kicks to mid kicks to Grove's midsection. A couple of quick exchanges in the middle with no landed punches and Grove finally rushes Cote back into the fence. Cote come back out from the fence into a Grove clinch in which Grove plows Cote into the fence behind him and begins an onslaught of knees. Before Grove could even get settle, Cote reversed Grove and gets his back into the fence. The reversal game is played against the fence as they go back and forth; Grove landing a few knees as he reverses Cote back into the fence again. After a few go's at each other, they break and separate into the middle of the Octagon. At this point, Grove begins to get confident in his standup and lands a good shot in midsequence of a good 1-2 combo followed by a high head kick that Cote blocks. Grove then lands a huge midsection kick that can be heard throughout the crowd. Cote seems unphased as Grove shoots for a takedown. Grove gets back to his feet as Cote backs up, a very weak takedown attempt by Grove. Grove and Cote battle in a clinch and as Grove throws a high knee, Cote lets go of the clinch and nails Grove with a quick right to the head. Grove drops like a pile of bricks as Cote jumps on top of Grove into full mount. After landing a few punches, Cote goes for the rear naked choke. Grove slips from his grip, but is still unable to shake Cote's mount. Cote lands 2 or 3 huge rights while on top of Grove as his left hand basically holds Grove's head in place for the beating. The fight ends as Grove is basically defenseless and obviously out of the fight.

The Breakdown

Cote did exactly what he needed to do in this fight. He completely eliminated Grove's height and reach advantage. It was a Randy Couture clinic. Cote was able to use the clinch and push Grove into the fence and work the fight with some dirty boxing. He didn't land anything incredible in the fence area, and had Grove kept the fight in the corner and taken down Cote, it would have been a different outcome. Cote was able to get one great punch from the clinch, which was obviously his gameplan from the beginning. A great gameplan and great execution from Cote.

Improvements

The most obvious was Grove's takedown skills. He tried one takedown late in the fight, and it was probably one of the weakest attempts I've seen all year. He shot for the legs as Cote walked backwards. Cote might as well have fallen down and gave Grove the takedown. He didn't sprawl and really had no defense against it. Grove didn't shoot through or follow through with the takedown though and allowed Grove to muscle him back up into a clinch that inevitable led to the big punch that started the downward spiral. He also didn't utilize his large size in the clinch enough. Take a lesson from Anderson Silva. Long legs equal big time knees. Grove used his knees to an extent, but Cote was able to keep reversing him back into the fence. The whole point of having those long legs is that you can still throw big knees even when in the clinch.

Renato Sobral vs. David Heath

Sobral just looked scary standing in the ring before the fight for this one. As they approached one another, neither tapped gloves. You could definitely sense a hatred for one another. The fight started out with some standup, a few punches, and then a left by Babalu into a takedown. Babalu relentlessly rained punches on Heath's midsection and head during the exchange. Babalu used various ju-jitsu techniques to open up Heath's guard and throw elbows into Heath's face. At one point, he landed 3-4 good elbows directly into Heath's forehead. Heath eventually is able to quickly get up and pounce on Babalu. Even when Heath is on top of Babalu, Babalu seems to still have control of the fight. He continues to land elbows and punches from his back while also attempting submission holds. Heath can't throw any punches as he is tied up defending against Babalu's submission attempts and being pelted with punches from the bottom. The round ended easily won by Babalu's domination of Heath on the ground.

In the second round, it was more of the same from the Brazilian. Babalu threw a very good left that landed on Heath's chin and then shot Heath's legs for the takedown. Heath was able to sprawl a bit and then push Babalu into the fence while in a clinch. Heath makes a huge mistake in dropping to his guard as Babalu rains elbows into Heath's forehead, opening up an unbelievable gash in his head that bled all over the mat. If you tuned into the PPV event, most people wondered where the huge blood stain came from.. it was this fight. Babalu is now punching his way through Heath's skull. For a good 2-3 minutes, Babalu continues punishing Heath from full guard with punches and elbows as Heath bleeds all over both Babalu and the mat. After a relentless pounding, Heath rolls Babalu off him finally. But the roll is no godsend for Heath. Babalu sinks in an Anaconda Choke that eventually finishes Heath.

This fight had a lot of controversy at the end due to Babalu's chokeout. He held onto the choke for about 2-3 seconds longer after Mazzagati tapped Babalu off Heath. Heath lost consciousness and Babalu finally let go and acted as if nothing had happened. Babalu was the unanimously booed by the crowd, but took his win and left the Octagon. In post-fight interviews, he admitted to holding onto it because Heath disrespected him before the fight. Word to the wise, Babalu's actions are a scar on the UFC. There was no real need to prove anything more than the already serious beatdown you laid on Heath. Come on, Babalu..

The Breakdown

There isn't much to breakdown here. Babalu was dominant on the ground, and Heath was just too slow to pickup the takedown attempts and had ZERO defense on the ground. Heath couldn't even grab onto Babalu to keep him close. It was a poor performance in ground defense by Heath and it showed with his blood all over the mat.

Improvements

Babalu's ground game looked very good. He used some of his ju-jitsu to open up Heath's guard and just rain elbows and punches all over Heath's face. Heath's major flaws were all over this fight. He had zero defensive strategy against a pure ground fighter. It was as if he came into the fight thinking he could just KO Babalu in the first exchange. Heath had no techniques to even pound Babalu when he got on top and he still took damage while he was on top of him. Heath's standup suffered as well. Babalu was able to land some stiff jabs in his transitions from standup to takedown, Heat couldn't hit the broad side of a barn. It was just overall a bad performance by David Heath.

Clay Guida vs. Marcus Aurelio

The fight everyone wanted to see, but couldn't because the UFC didn't include it on the PPV. What a shame. Coming out of the gate, both fighters had a feeling out period of about a minute and a half before Guida landed a good midsection kick. Guida continued to push the pace of this fight. He took a few good blows to the face from Aurelio as he tried to push him up against the fence. The fans at this point begin to chant "Guida" from the stands. Aurelio continues to back off trying to catch Guida with counter punches. 30 seconds later, Guida pushes Aurelio back into the fence and lands two good punches to Aurelio. The fight comes back to the middle, Aurelio lands a few quick jabs, but both fighters continue to pace around the Octagon. Punch after punch, Guida and Aurelio trade with each other in the middle of the Octagon. At around the 1:30 mark, Guida lands a huge left hand that drops Aurelio to the mat. Guida jumps on top of Aurelio trying to finish the fight. Aurelio ties up Guida very well, and Guida is not able to continue striking on the ground. Guida respects Aurelio's ground game and allows the standup. With 10 seconds left in the round, Guida lands two huge punches to Aurelio's guard, and Aurelio ties up Guida on the ground. Guida wasn't able to land the punches flush, but the power was enough to put Aurelio into defensive mode.

Second round, Guida comes out throwing huge haymakers as before. Aurelio slips to the ground, but Guida doesn't get baited into a ground battle with Aurelio. They continue to circle each other throwing punches, but nothing is very effective right now. Aurelio looks to be growing weary, and is very tentative. Aurelio goes for the takedown, but Guida powers him onto his back. Guida allows the standup again. A few more exchanges with a few leg kicks from Guida, some stiff jabs from Aurelio. These small jabs definitely aren't hindering Guida at all. Guida continues to press. Aurelio goes for the takedown and is able to grab a hold of Guida. Guida is now stuck in Aurelio's guard. Guida lands a good amount of hammer fists while in the clinch on the ground while Aurelio is trying to pull his shin to Guida's face. Guida lands three huge hammer fists to Aurelio's head. Aurelio continues to hold Guida, but has done nothing to progress any type of submission attempts. Aurelio looks gassed at this point as the round ends.

More of the same in the third round. Aurelio is tired, and Guida continues to come at him with huge haymakers, landing a few early. For a good portion of the round, Guida stalked Aurelio, threw a lot of punches, landed a couple kicks, and Aurelio really answered with nothing but jabs to the air. With a minute and a half left, Guida defended off a good takedown attempt from Aurelio. Guida still looks fresh and is moving like a cat in the Octagon. Aurelio just looks horribly flat and tired and the fight ends with Guida purely dominating Aurelio in the standup game and avoiding Aurelio's takedowns.

The Breakdown

Aurelio had a lackluster performance. His cardio lacked toward the end, and he wasn't shooting enough takedown attempts to really have any chance at stopping Guida with any ground tactics. Guida's cardio was again impressive. He pushed the pace the entire fight, and always threw a lot of combos when he had Aurelio back in the fence. Guida had very strong takedown defense which essentially won him this fight and kept the fight on the feet where he was most effective.

Improvements

Not much to say here. Aurelio needs to show up to the fight loose and in charge. He was very timid and very closed in his stance. He wasn't taking any chances with his standup game, and wasn't shooting for takedown at all. If you watch is fight against Gomi, he was able to utilize a takedown because Gomi was strictly standing to him. In this fight, it was a bit different in that Guida had a strong takedown defense. Aurelio needs to learn how to blow through that and still get the takedown. Guida, on the other hand, still had slow standup. He's still throwing big haymakers, much like a Koscheck. He has versed one-two combo much like Koscheck. If he can utilize some good straight jab combos, his standup could improve significantly. I think for the sake of this fight, his game was much changed though, so it may be premature to say that he needs to immensely improve that part of his game. Aurelio did force him to keep it a standup fight while fending off a possibly takedown attempt.

Frank Mir vs. Antoni Hardonk

Mir comes out looking in pretty damn good shape. I thought he looked better than he did when he fought Sylvia, and he proved it in this one. Hardonk came out the gate with a few leg kicks, and Mir came back with one of his own before stuffing punches in Hardonk's face. Hardonk defended the punches easily, but went down like a sack of potatoes to Mir's takedown. Hardonk immediately went for an omoplata, but Mir spins into half guard. Mir begins to lay some elbows into Hardonk's head, but then switches to grabbing Hardonk's arm. From half guard, Mir strongarms Hardonk's arm into a kimura attempt. Hardonk actually rolls Mir over escaping the hold for a slight second before Mir reverses the roll and rolls back on top of Hardonk. Mir reinitiates the kimura attempt. In the roll, Mir popped from half guard and now has complete side control. With even more leverage, Mir easily finished Hardonk.

There really is no explaining this fight. Mir had unbelievably superior ground tactics, and Hardonk had a well known kicking game, that's it. Mir took him down, and Hardonk could do nothing about it. Hardonk needs to get a ground game that can defend against the ju-jitsu that is rampant in this sport.

Thales Leites vs. Ryan Jensen

Jensen comes out with two big high kicks that land, but are easily defended by Leites. Jensen presses forward as Leites lands some small leg kicks. He continues to throw high leg kicks at Leites, but has yet to land flush without Leites defending it with his hand. Jensen is now stalking Leites around the Octagon, and has picked up his punches. He backs Leites into the fence and lands a good combo to Leites. Leites drops to the ground, grabs Jensen by the legs, and throws him to the ground. Jensen catches Leites in a guillotine choke, but Leites escape it fairly easily while also gaining side control. Jensen sees that he is in trouble, and the fight is brought back to the feet. Leites still remains in a choke position even on the feet. Jensen lands a good knee as they seperate. An exchange occurs with Jensen catching Leites with a good right, but then failing to defend the takedown. Leites is now in control on top of Jensen. Leites gains Jensen's back and goes for a rear naked choke, but Jensen is able to wiggle free and get back up from the ground clinch. A few more exchanges with nothing landing from either opponent, and then Leites shoots into Jensen's midsection. Jensen powers Leites to the ground with a sprawl, and gains the top position. Jensen begins a ground n' pound game that Leites is defending fairly easily. Jensen lands a few good elbows and punches, but must stop to get away from multiple Leites armbar attempts. Eventually, Leites catches Jensen's arm in one of the attempts and rolls to sink in the armbar.

Overall, very good fight by Jensen. He took it to the BJJ expert, and I wouldn't really suggest much change other than to keep working on escape attempts and possibly some ju-jitsu of his own to better understand ways of escaping the holds. Jensen's kicks were phenomenol, and it was impressive that he was accurate enough to land them. Jensen also had some decent standup, but he was wild when pounding down on Leites. This was his eventual demise. Leites, on the other hand, has zero standup game. He definitely needs to somehow obtain some standup skills or he won't be able to fend off striking opponents that have decent escapes.

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Tags: patrick cote, kendall grove, renato sobral, david heath, marcus aurelio, clay guida, antoni hardonk, frank mir, thales leites, ryan jensen

UFC 74 Post-Fight Breakdown and Analysis: Part 1 of 2

by LR 8/27/2007 7:18:00 AM

Randy Couture came, he saw, he conquered... all at the tender age of 44 years old. He once again proved to this MMA fan, and to many other MMA fans that betting against Randy Couture is not the smart thing to do. Randy Couture stopped Gabriel Gonzaga by TKO in the 3rd round to defend the UFC Heavyweight Title and put to rest the claims that Couture may be getting too old for this sport. With that said, let's take a look at the evening's fight card with some insight on the improvements we saw and the key factors that each fighter will need work on for their upcoming bouts in the future.

Main Events
Randy Couture vs. Gabriel Gonzaga

An overall stellar gameplan by Randy Couture cemented the victory in the 3rd round to defend his UFC Heavyweight title. Couture used a great combination of pace, quick tempo, dirty boxing, and pure strength and clinching skill to get in close on Gonzaga and pound him. Gonzaga came out fast with a two punch combo he landed on Couture, but Couture shot back and landed a heavy punch to Gonzaga, who backed away after the hit. The two fighters traded a few more shots when Couture tried to take Gonzaga down, and Gonzaga showed his balance and fought it off. Couture came back with a left hook, catching Gonzaga and then clinching him from his waist and throwing him to the canvas. Gonzaga was able to get up fairly easily from Couture's takedown early, but then used the clinch to throw Gonzaga down and pound him as he tried to stand back up. Couture landed numerous blows while Gonzaga tried to regain his feet. Gonzaga was able to land a flush elbow in one exchange and back it with a quick right that rattled Couture for a second before he ran Gonzaga into another clinch. Couture was able to then lift Gonzaga in the clinch and slam him. This resulted in Couture's head butting Gonzaga's nose and breaking it. A definite turning point for Gonzaga as he now was unable to breath out his nose and was panting heavily through his mouth. Gonzaga recovered, but was put back into a clinch. Couture landed numerous blows to Gonzaga in the clinch with his dirty boxing. A very effective win in round 1 by Randy Couture.

The second round was no different. Couture continued to throw quick combos and then push the clinch into the fence. Gonzaga was able to land some blows in the quick exchanges they did have, but the smart Couture punched and quickly countered Gonzaga's blows with a shoot to tie up Gonzaga. Around the 3:50 mark, Gonzaga complained that he could not see due to the broken nose flooded his eyes. The fight was stopped for a moment in which it was explained to Gonzaga that he could not stop the fight for that reason. Herb Dean continued to fight in the clinch and Couture continued to keep the clinch and reign punches on Gonzaga. Gonzaga was deducted a point for holding onto the fence about 10 seconds after his stoppage. Holding the fence didn't help Gonzaga fend off the assault that Couture was imposing on his opponent. It was clear that Gonzaga was losing his breath and was gassing out as Couture continued to land blows to Gonzaga's head.

Third round began and a standup battle began. Gonzaga was able to land a stiff head kick that somewhat stunned Couture. Gonzaga tried to capitalize, but Couture put him back into the clinch. Couture was then able to take down Gonzaga. At this point, Gonzaga was so tired and so beaten that it was only a matter of time. Couture reigned blows on Gonzaga's head and Gonzaga could only cover up. Dean called the fight since Gonzaga was not trying to escape the beatdown and barely able to defend the punches.

The Breakdown

Couture was a pure joy to watch. He was able to utilize the clinch to absolutely dominate Gonzaga in the fence. Gonzaga's only strength seemed to show when the clinch was a non-factor and Gonzaga was able to throw a few combos. Couture, as smart as he is, was able to see the fact in past fights that his standup game isn't the best in MMA. He stayed away from trading punches, and closed in on Gonzaga. A very good gameplan and he was able to stick to it. He never gave Gonzaga a chance to use his ju-jitsu either because Couture was mainly throwing Gonzaga down near the fence in order to stay on his feet and use the fence to prop Gonzaga up so he could land shots easier. It was an amazing feat.

Improvements

Gonzaga needs to beef up his power. He was being manhandled in the clinch. He had good balance when Randy tried to take him down, but he wasn't able to power Randy off of him at any moment. Ju-jitsu is a great ground game, but if you have nothing to stop the clinch or at least squirm out of it, you will be tied up for hours when fighting Randy Couture. Gonzaga showed glimmers of a standup game, but his head was concentrating too much on landing punches and not enough on whether or not Randy was going to counter with a takedown. When Randy did counter, Gonzaga had zero defense against it.

Couture's clinch is world renowned, and he looked very powerful. I will say his standup game still needs to improve a bit, but he was trading shots with Gonzaga. Overall though, a very well rounded fight by Couture. I didn't see one bit of this fight that I could honestly say Couture could have been better in.

Georges St. Pierre vs. Josh Koscheck

Georges St. Pierre showed that his mental toughness was intact this evening. St. Pierre and Koscheck came out at the beginning of this fight to huge cheers for St. Pierre. As the fight began, Koscheck threw a number of combinations that completely missed Pierre and left Koscheck open to a takedown early in the fight. From the takedown, Pierre began to work his strikes in on Koscheck, and nearly passing his guard early in the fight. Pierre was able to actually stand in Koscheck's guard and rain punches down on Koscheck, but eating a few strikes from Koscheck in the process. With about 2 minutes left in the first round, Koscheck was able to get off the ground and make an attempt to take down St. Pierre. Pierre held himself in a sprawl while Koscheck lifted one of Pierre's legs off the ground in order to unbalance him for the takedown. Koscheck suddenly exploded into the fence taking Pierre with him in a brutal takedown. Pierre was able to tie up Koscheck for the rest of the round after the takedown. Koscheck was unable to mount any significant attack out of the late round takedown and I gave St. Pierre the round.

St. Pierre came out in the second round looking even quicker than he did in the first round. Koscheck wasn't making Pierre pay for his attempts at punching and kicking Koscheck early on. After a flurry of attempts by Pierre, he was able to easily grab Koscheck's leg and take him down in amazement of the crowd. Pierre had been taking Koscheck down at will so far during the matchup and Koscheck doesn't seem to have an answer. Pierre's fakes and constant mixture of standup and shoots is definitely confusing Koscheck. Pierre attempted a kimura during the ground battle that ensued. Koscheck was able to pull out of it only to have Pierre create another opportunity for a kimura after the first attempt. Pierre switched gears and passed Koscheck's guard into side control and began to strike at Koscheck's head. Pierre was very impressive in his takedown game during this round. Numerous attempts by Koscheck to get off the ground were met by Pierre's tenacity. Koscheck would roll onto his feet only to be met by Pierre's grip. He was ultimately kept down on the ground in every escape attempt by Pierre's perseverance. At the end of the round, Pierre again was able to catch Koscheck in a side mount and try for the kimura. He was unable to finish it, but he dominated Koscheck on the ground in a will crushing way that Koscheck could not have possibly expected.

The third round became a standup battle in which Pierre was able to use his range to keep Koscheck away while he put together some nice combinations that landed. Koscheck grabbed Pierre's leg and went for the takedown, but Pierre reversed it and put Koscheck on his back... again. The fight continued as Pierre tried to land punches while on top of Koscheck. The fight ended with Pierre almost pulling a leg lock, but the bell rang as Koscheck slammed his fist down in complete disgust.

The Breakdown

This fight proved once again that Georges St. Pierre is on top of his game again. The entire pre-fight discussions involving this fight all revolved around Georges St. Pierre's mental toughness and became borderline absurdity when some fans questioned his character. St. Pierre came out and dominated a fighter that was better than him in one area of the MMA game. But did St. Pierre stay away from that? No, he went after Koscheck on the ground and was able to even reverse a few takedown attempts and stifle Koscheck's escapes. He put on a takedown clinic against an accomplished wrestler and it begs the question, does a NCAA Division I championship really guarantee success at the top of the MMA divisional ranks? It certainly helps in some cases, but Georges St. Pierre doesn't have a wrestling championship. He trains his ass off, and it showed at UFC 74

Improvements

Koscheck has the most obvious flaws in his game out of the two fighters. Koscheck should take one thing away from this battle. He should really think about learning a ju-jitsu game and using it. The idea that he will own the world on the ground is over for him. He went against someone who basically threw him down at will, and he was unable to counter whatsoever during the entire fight. If Koscheck had an intermediate level ju-jitsu game, he would have been able to at least fend off some attacks and possibly catch Pierre with a submission hold. It wouldn't be guaranteed if he could submit him, but it would definitely make St. Pierre think about standing it up. But.. then the rub hits again.. Koscheck's standup was easily dwarfed by Pierre's standup regiment. Yes, very true. Pierre has a vast skillset he can use. He tied combos together effortlessly, and he mixes it up. Koscheck threw rehearsed combos that were easily predictable after the first round. Koscheck needs to add some standup skills to his game along with some additional ground skills if he really wants to be in the top 5 of the welterweight division. Even with an added standup factor, he could potentially sit in the top 3. Sherdog has him listed in the top 5, but after this performance, I beg to make an argument that some of the guys below him may overtake those spots.

Main Card Fights
Joe Stevenson vs. Kurt Pellegrino

Stevenson wasn't completely dominant in my eyes, but you could make a case that he was. Pellegrino was only able to use his ju-jitsu to fend off Stevenson from otherwise pounding him out early to squeak this fight to a decision in which Stevenson won unanimously. Stevenson, like many previous fights, had numerous guillotine choke attempts. Pellegrino came out punching, but in the later rounds was mainly stuck on his back while Stevenson pounded him. Stevenson was able to suplex Pellegrino in the first round and immediately take his back again. Pellegrino had one instance where he was able to take Stevenson down, but it didn't result in really any damage done. Stevenson and Pellegrino traded punches for much of the second round. Pellegrino was going for quantity instead of quality while Stevenson looked for a good punch. Stevenson was able to control a few takedowns while Pellegrino looked to be gassing late in the second round. The most decisive round was the third round domination by Stevenson. Pellegrino was clearly gassing and Stevenson pushed the pace and took down Pellegrino against the fence. Stevenson was able to stay standing and jab at Pellegrino while he was down nudged in the fence. He scored many blows and Pellegrino was doing little to defend against them. Stevenson won via unanimous decision, a very good fight by Joe Daddy.

The Breakdown

Better cardio and impressive takedowns and escapes by Stevenson dominated this fight. Pellegrino didn't look too bad in the beginning of the fight. He was throwing punches and landing a few, but Stevenson was bobbing and weaving like he was a pure boxer. Pellegrino wasted some energy throwing a lot of punches, and was vulnerable to the takedown early. Stevenson was able to get some big hits on Pellegrino while on top of him, and had numerous guillotine attempts early. By the second round, Pellegrino started to gas and get frustrated at having Stevenson escape all of his takedowns. Stevenson locked it down in the third round with a good takedown and ground n' pound against the fence to finish the fight off and secure a victory of himself. Impressive cardio and escapes by Joe "Daddy" Stevenson.

Improvements

Stevenson looked good, with great ju-jitsu he utilized to control Pellegrino on the ground, and some impressive defense in his standup game. He picked his shots and conserved energy early when standing. He also had a number of good reversals and escapes that Pellegrino definitely grew frustrated with. If Stevenson wants to get into the upper echelon of the division, his standup could use some explosiveness. His takedown defense isn't the greatest even though Pellegrino is a very accomplished wrestler. Stevenson didn't seem to be using the sprawl when he could have, and definitely could have used it more to control Pellegrino and possibly get him into submission attempts.

Pellegrino needs to add more cardio to his game, the most obvious flaw in his fight. He also needs to tighten up his standup and learn to throw quality punches instead of wasting energy throwing a lot of punches for low percentage hits. He seemed to be sticking his fists out there to stop Stevenson from shooting, but it didn't work at all during this fight. Pellegrino did have some flashes of greatness in his wrestling game, but he allowed Stevenson to escape numerous times. Pellegrino could work on his body control techniques a bit more to stop Stevenson from doing so, or it could possibly all revolve around his bad cardio.

Roger Huerta vs. Alberto Crane

This fight was a disappointment for me. I was hoping we would see a quality contender against Huerta, and in most respects, it was for the first round. However, I did not expect Crane to gas so quickly and literally fall apart dead in the last round. The highlights of this fight are few as Huerta laid a ground n' pound smack down on Crane from the get go as Crane scrambled to pull off an upset submission throughout the fight. It was evident early that Crane wanted to take it to the ground while Huerta wanted to keep it up. Crane eventually took Huerta down, but Huerta impressed the fans with escape after escape after escape. Eventually, Crane grew tired and his strength was very low compared to Huerta's power. Crane had a few attempts in the second round that would have garnered a victory if he had any strength at all, but Huerta just held on and escaped each time. Huerta threw huge bombs down on Crane when he escaped and was able to ground and pound Crane. Crane had a huge mouse under his left eye for most of the match, but the real story was Crane's cardio. About a third of the way through the second round, Crane was nearly asleep. He was barely able to stand and was trying to take the fight to the ground with very weak takedown attempts. At times, he was able to get Huerta down, but any attempt to submit Huerta was met with an easy escape transitioning to a ground n' pound on Crane's face. Crane lost via TKO in the third round due basically to the fact he was so tired he couldn't defend himself.

The Breakdown

Huerta's escapes transitioned into ground n' pound tactics that literally smeared Crane all over the mat. Huerta looked stronger, had more cardio, and was downright hateful in his striking on the ground. There isn't much of a breakdown other than I can't believe Crane lasted till the 3rd round.

Improvements

Obviously, if we see Crane in the UFC again, he needs to improve his cardio vastly. He also needs some type of standup game, anything to help him takedown opponents better and transition easily into submission holds. When he did take Huerta down, he was expending a lot of energy trying to defeat Huerta's sprawl. It'd be much easier for him had Huerta needed to look for a stray punch to the face. Those are two huge hurdles he will need to jump to even compete. He has a great ground game as we saw he transitioned too many different attempts, but he didn't have the strength to pull them into a complete submission.

Huerta looked better in this fight. It was a true ground test for him, and he was able to pass with flying colors. He showed his skills in escaping various ju-jitsu submission attempts and was able to easily transition to his own game. I will say that he wasn't tested that intensely since Crane basically became limp after the midpoint of the 2nd round. I look to see Huerta fight someone like a Guida who is a cardio machine to really test his energy and power.

To be continued tomorrow...

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Tags: ufc 74, randy couture, gabriel gonzaga, georges st. pierre, josh koscheck, alberto crane, joe stevenson, kurt pellegrino

MMA-Analyst's UFC 74 Pre-Fight Predictions

by Matt Kaplan 8/24/2007 11:11:00 AM

I did a preview/predictions post awhile back, and Matt has posted a preview/predictions post for his blog, so I'm going to combine the two and give everyone a general preview and our predictions of the UFC 74 card at Mandalay Bay in Las Vegas. This is shaping up to be a very good card matchup wise. Now, to be fair, I've said this in the past and the card ended up being a snoozer or disappointing all together. This card does have a lot of even matchups though, and I'm hoping we really get some distance out of the two top fights on the card. Let's take a good look at Matt's predictions:

UFC 74 Pre-Fight Jitters

Anyone else get that anxious feeling the day before a big event? The odds are that the only physical activity I'll be doing during the fights is getting up for some more White Castle, but I feel as if I'm fighting tomorrow.

Anyway, here's how I see tomorrow night's UFC 74 card. Please note that my picks are a combination of whom I think will win, as well as whom I want to win.

Randy Couture vs. Gabriel Gonzaga

I truly believe that Gonzaga has the right combination of size, power, grappling, submission skills, and striking to dethrone the older, smaller Randy Couture. Gonzaga's stand-up attack benefited greatly from his time with Wanderlei Silva, Shogun Rua, and the rest of the Chute Boxe guys a few years back, and we all saw how dangerous he could be from inside the guard. Wanderlei and Rua have each said, on separate occasions, that they believe Gonzaga has the tools to defeat Couture.

Nonetheless, my heart is with Randy tomorrow. I didn't think he could beat Liddell, and he did. I didn't think he could beat Belfort, and he did. I thought, for sure, that Sylvia would overwhelm the newly un-retired Randy. Wrong again. I believe that tomorrow night we'll see a Randy Couture that's better than the one who beat up on Tim Sylvia at UFC 68. No one devises and executes a game plan like Randy (well, maybe Fedor), whose game is constantly evolving and surprising millions.

Matt's Pick: Randy Couture

LR's Pick: Gabriel Gonzaga

Roger Huerta vs. Alberto Crane

I think Huerta has a lot to lose in this fight. If he wins, look for him to be in the forefront of the lightweight championship picture. He's young, the ladies seem to dig him, he's got a great story, and he speaks Spanish: Dana's all over that. In Crane, Huerta definitely faces his toughest opponent to date, so don't buy into all the ridiculousness about Huerta only fighting UFC first-timers.

Well, that is true, but Crane is a King of the Cage lightweight world champion and a Ring of Fire lightweight champion. He earned a black belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu from the Gracie Barra academy in Rio de Janeiro and is a former world jiu-jitsu champion and three-time Brazilian National jiu-jitsu champion. Not to mention that he's also a highly decorated grappler.

Matt's Pick: Albert Crane (upset of the night!)

LR's Pick: Alberto Crane via omoplata, lol, maybe not that, but I am betting on Crane to win

Josh Koscheck vs. Georges St-Pierre

Luke Cummo said it best: "This fight will be a battle of athleticism." Both are supremely athletic, but as I've said all along, I think that GSP does a better job of putting it all together as a mixed martial artist.

I know that the UFC wants us to believe that Koscheck is more than just a wrestler and that his much-improved striking is also a dangerous weapon, but I'm not buying it. In fact, the UFC seems to have had a tough time collecting highlights of Koscheck on his feet. How many times do we need to see Koscheck land a stiff jab to Diego Sanchez' forehead in slow motion??? His highlight reel even shows him throwing the same head kick (that did not connect) to Diego from different angles -- also in slow motion. Diego Sanchez virtually stood in front of Koscheck as if he wanted to box him, and although Koscheck was the aggressor, he didn't seem to overwhelm Diego with his striking.

In the days leading up to the fight, Koscheck seems to be pulling a Rashad Evans - an obvious attempt to show some "personality" by offering dim-witted, obviously fabricated trash talk, which I find both frustrating and amusing.

I think that GSP will come out with his head in the right place and give Koscheck the beating that Diego didn't. Look for an improved guard game from GSP, and don't be surprised by GSP's surprisingly good wrestling. GSP is the better fighter and will show the world that tomorrow night.

Matt's pick: GSP (all day)

LR's pick: GSP by brutal KO.

Joe Stevenson vs. Kurt Pellegrino

Joe Daddy is a Kodiak MMA favorite, and I think that a win over Pellegrino would catapult him to the forefront of the UFC lightweight class. Joe Daddy has had a pretty easy run as a lightweight, overpowering and choking out both Melvin Guillard and Dokonjonosuke Mishima.

Pellegrino is a bad-ass wrestler with great jiu-jitsu who will surely be fighting with friend and Team Armory stablemate Hermes Franca in mind. Pellegrino is a decorated grappler whose strength lies in his takedown abilities, particularly his slams. His stand-up game, however, has been underwhelming in the UFC.

Not only is Joe Daddy himself an accomplished wrestler, but if Pellegrino goes in for a takedown, sticks his head in the wrong place, and gives Joe an opportunity to slap those powerful arms around Pellegrino's neck, we might very well see The Daddy earn a third consecutive submission win by choke. Not that crazy a scenario, actually.

Overall, I think that Joe is a stronger, more experienced fighter with far superior striking. Look for Joe to keep this one on the feet for as long as he can.

Matt's Pick: Joe "Daddy" Stevenson

LR's Pick" Joe "Daddy" Stevenson

Patrick Cote vs. Kendall Grove

I've been waiting for Grove to make a big splash in the middleweight division, and I think this is the fight in which he'll do it.

Cote is definitely a tough striker, but I think that Grove presents a lot of problems for Cote. At 6'6" Grove is a nightmare in the clinch - knees, elbows, punches, everything. Grove has also been working out as part of Xtreme Couture, so we can expect a solid takedown and submission defenses from the big Hawaiian. Cote loves to bang (even though his most recent win over Scott Smith was lackluster) but so does Grove, who attacks with relentless precision.

Stylistically, a forward-charging slugger with decent submission skills, like Cote, is a good match for someone like Grove, who can punish you in a number of ways. And based on how Cote looked against Scott Smith, whose not nearly as complete a striker as Grove, Cote's best chance at victory is a knockout blow.

Matt's Pick: Kendall Grove

LR's Pick: Kendall Grove

Renato "Babalu" Sobral vs. Davis Heath

Simply put, Babalu needs this win. Badly. He's lost his last two UFC fights and did so in similar fashion: he rushed in against powerful strikers and was dropped. Babalu said that if he loses this fight, he's retiring (which I don't entirely believe). Regardless, the 205-lb. division is deeper than ever, and babalu can't affords to slide too far down the food chain.

To his credit, Babalu has defeated Shogun Rua, Jeremy Horn, and Trevor Prangley in one night (as part of a 2003 IFC event), and he once went the distance with Fedor Emelianenko. Babalu's grappling and Brazilian jiu-jitsu is top-notch, while Heath is primarily a boxer. If Heath comes in swinging, looking for the big punch, Babalu will take him apart with his submission game. Heath is no Chuck Liddell, and Babalu (hopefully) knows better than to abandon his jiu-jitsu skills in favor of banging away with a puncher like Heath.

Matt's Pick: Babalu Sobral

LR's Pick: Babalu

Clay Guida vs. Marcus Aurelio

If you don't know about Aurelio, you might be in for quite a treat. "Maximus" is a former Pride Bushido star who has excellent jiu-jitsu, solid takedowns, and a win over Pride lightweight champion Takanori Gomi. He's coming off of two losses, while his Guida, despite losing a bullshit split decision to Tyson Griffin at UFC 72 and another decision loss to Din Thomas before that, seems to have momentum on his side.

Guida is non-stop action and he seems to transition well from one aspect of the fight game to another. Guida is an excellent groundfighter with furious strength and speed and fast hands that he's more than willing to let fly. Guida has faced top competition in Din Thomas and Tyson Griffin, and I think that he'll be more than ready for Aurelio, who hasn't looked too good recently. I think that Guida's athleticism, skill, and conditioning will win it for him.

Matt's Pick: Clay Guida

LR's Pick: Guida by cardio machine decision

Frank Mir vs. Antoni Hardonk

With the recent additions to the UFC heavyweight divsion, it might be hard for some fans to really get excited for this fight. Hardonk is a relative unknown to most UFC fans, Mir has looked unimpressive since the motorcycle accident and surgery that forced him to vacate his heavyweight belt, and this fight has neither title nor top contender implications.

But still, I'd love to see the very talented, very skilled Mir fulfill the promise of his vast potential with an impressive showing. If not, we probably won't be seeing too much more of Frank Mir in the UFC.

Matt's Pick: Frank Mir

LR's Pick: Mir looked ok at weight in, I think his BJJ will still be superior, Mir by submission

Thales Lietes vs. Ryan Jensen

Jensen is a long-time middleweight who has good submission skills and loves to stand and bang. He's enjoyed success in several smaller promotions, but better bring his A-game against a very dangerous Thales Lietes.

Against Pete Sell and Floyd Sword, Lietes has shown that he has the striking, ground-and-pound, and submission game to be a real force in the UFC middleweight division. Lietes' black belt jiu-jitsu skills should ward off any submission attempts from Jensen, and based on how effectively pounded away on a very strong Pete Sell back at UFC 69, I expect Lietes to pick up his third straight UFC win.

Matt's Pick: Thales Lietes

LR's Pick: Thales Leites

This interview was conducted by Matt Kaplan from Kodiak MMA and is a contribution to MMA-analyst.com. Check out his blog!

You can read all of LR's in-depth analysis, and there is a lot of it, at this link here.

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UFC 74: Complete Fight Card Analysis and Breakdown

by LR 8/15/2007 6:04:00 AM

We have finished our first complete fight card analysis and breakdown for UFC 74. With any luck, these posts will help you know a little about each fighter, his styles, and techniques in order for you to better gauge their performance at UFC 74. All the predictions are my own, so you can all hound me later if I do poorly. For the record, I have a 14-2 record since UFC 73 in the MMAplayground Season. If you haven't done so already, MMAPlayground is a fantasy MMA game in which you pick fights, and can also do fantasy wagering against about 6,000 other users. It's very fun. I picked Alvin Robinson over Kenny Florian and paid for it, even though Robinson looked great early and then succumbed to Florian's great ju-jitsu. I pick upsets because there is usually at least one on each fight card. It hasn't been the case so much since UFC 73 though. Here's our current breakdown of the event with links to our articles:

Click on each fighter for a Sherdog Fighter Profile displaying record and each fight
UFC 74 Breakdown Articles
Randy "The Natural" Couture vs. Gabriel "Napao" Gonzaga. - Article
Georges "Rush" St. Pierre vs. Josh Koscheck. - Article
Joe "Daddy" Stevenson vs Kurt Pellegrino - Article
Patrick "The Predator" Cote vs. Kendall "Da Spyda" Grove - Article
Renato "Babalu" Sobral vs. David Heath - Article
Marcus "Maximus" Aurelio vs. Clay "The Carpenter" Guida - Article
Alberto Crane vs. Roger "El Matador" Huerta - Article
Antoni Hardonk vs. Frank Mir - Article
Thales Leites vs. Ryan Jensen - Article

Enjoy our articles and hopefully this will bring some intelligent conversations to the MMA communites out there on the Internet through the knowledge we've given you all on some of the up and coming fighters in the UFC, and the veterans of the UFC. If you are a new fan to the UFC, definitely check out the video analysis. It definitely gives great insight into the styles and dynamics of each fighter.

In our upcoming segment, we will be analyzing the fight card for WEC 30. Look forward to that within the next few days.

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UFC 74 Undercard: Mir vs. Hardonk, Leites vs. Jensen fight breakdowns

by LR 8/14/2007 5:54:00 AM

Our last installment of the UFC 74 predictions and analysis will focus on two matchups, Frank Mir vs. Antoni Hardonk and Thales Leites vs. Ryan Jensen. Both of these fights are well down the fight card, and will most likely be left off the Pay-Per-View event unless there is a huge upset, KO, or we have a few main events go one round. It's a shame because at least one of these fights is somewhat interesting to long-time UFC fans.

Frank Mir vs. Antoni Hardonk

Frank Mir, sound familiar? Fight fans will recognize him as the man who sunk in a brutal armbar against Tim Sylvia at UFC 65 and propelled Mir into the UFC Heavyweight Champion role. Two months later, Mir was in a horrible motorcycle accident which he broke his leg in two spots and required major surgery to repair. Andrei Arlovski was promoted to interim heavyweight champion and the date was set for the bout between Mir and Arlovski. Mir was unable to make the date, and was stripped of his belt after 14 months of being out of the UFC due to his injury. Since this unfortunate incident, Mir has dropped two UFC fights, one to a very good fighter in Brandon Vera and another to a relative newcomer in Marcio Cruz. Cruz was his first fight back after his injury, and Mir was visibly not the same fighter. He was cut fairly quickly in the bout and succumbed to strikes at 4:09 in the matchup. Even in Mir's win over Dan Christison, in which he squeaked out a decision, he was visibly out of shape and gassed for half of the match. Many consider Frank Mir to be done in MMA, but he is now coming out at UFC 74 to prove everyone wrong.

Mir's background is Brazilian ju-jitsu and Muay Thai. He holds a black belt in BJJ, and uses it regularly in the Octagon. He also has a vast amount of skills that most big men don't have in the UFC. He has some excellent wrestling skills for body control along with his ju-jitsu, and he also has some striking ability. Most of these skills only supplement his ju-jitsu. A submission artist by trade, Mir has over half of his wins ended by submission. His submission skills are very good, and when he is on his game, he can submit most opponents within the first round. He's definitely a guy that looks for a striker to make mistakes. The only problem recently that Mir has had is that his weight has been looming. He has shown up to fights looking very out of shape, and it showed against Christison. He also has improved his standup, but it isn't up to the caliber as some of the Heavyweight division's best. Vera showed him that at UFC 65. Will we see Frank Mir at his BEST? I think we will see a different fighter and hopefully a slimmed down Frank Mir. He has been training at Randy Couture's camp in Las Vegas, so we shall hopefully see Couture rub off on him.

Antoni Hardonk is no slouch. A native from Holland, he's been training with legendary kickboxing K-1 Champion Ernesto Hoost on his leg strikes. If you want an idea of Hoost's power, he would literally break opponent's forearms when they blocked his kicks, that's how powerful his technique was. Hardonk has shown some glimmers of that type of power with his kicks as well in the ring. Hardonk is coming into this fight with a 5-3 record coming on a decision loss to Justin McCully at UFC Fight Night 9. Hardonk has some very good striking ability, but his main strike is the leg kick. He has shown in numerous fights leading up to the UFC that it can devastate opponents. He has good hands, and a small submission game he has been working into his matchups. Hardonk's best chance is to work the leg kicks on Mir and hope it can cut him down and soften him up for the hands to begin striking. If he can get Mir to start paying attention to the leg kicks, he may have a better chance at catching Mir with a huge punch.

This fight is really a toss up in my mind. A lot of people in the MMA community want to pick Hardonk and say that Mir is done, but which Mir will show up. If Mir shows up lean, and in shape for this fight, his ju-jitsu alone will carry him. Hardonk has zero ground game other than the occassional mount into ground and pound. I think that Mir will utilize Hardonk's kicks by grabbing hold of his legs and taking him down for a submission fight. This fight has great potential for an upset though. I'm going to go out on a limb and predict a late Frank Mir victory in this fight.

Final Prediction: Frank Mir by submission, 3rd round.

Thales Leites vs. Ryan Jensen
Thales Leites is a Brazilian ju-jitsu fighter out of Brazil. He scored a dominated victory over Floyd Sword at TUF Finale 5 in his most recent fight. His current record is 11-1 with the only loss coming at the TUF 4 Finale against Martin Kampmann in an unanimous decision. Some of Thales's highlights can be seen here. Thales's main perogative in a fight is to take you down. He will definitely not stand and strike with an opponent. He has been known to throw the occassional knee or flying knee into the mix to surprise his opponent, but for the most part, Leites wants you on the ground so he can submit you. Leites's ju-jitsu will be hard to deal with in this matchup. He also has excellent body control and can ground and pound with the best of them to set up his submission game.

Leites will be facing newcomer Ryan Jensen, who is also 11-1. He suffered his only loss to former WEC Middleweight Champion Brock Larson. I don't really know a lot about this guy. From the looks of his record and fight history, he has fought in some lower organizations with some relative success. He does have a ridiculous 1st round win percentage. He has beaten all of his opponents in the 1st round except for Larson, impressive by any means. Jensen has also held the Victory Fighting Championships Middleweight Champion belt for about 2 years. This looks like a chance fight for Jensen. Although Jensen has an impressive record, I think Leites is going to be a tough test for him. Larson was able to dominate Jensen in 1:39 by ground strikes. Most likely, he was able to get body control and pound him out. I think that this is what Leites goal will be for this bout. Jensen may be keen enough to stay away from Leites's submission, but I will go out on a limb and predict a submission win by Leites.

Final Prediction: Thales Leites, 1st round submission victory.

Alberto Crane Update
Also, a small reference for the faithful. In doing some research on Alberto Crane, I found that this guy actually submitted a guy in :28 seconds by omoplata. I had a flashback of Nick Diaz vs. Takanori Gomi for a second when I read that. Pretty damn impressive. I really can't believe I looked over that, it doesn't mean a whole lot, but it shows he's willing to go for those awkward submissions. That says a lot for his ju-jitsu.

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Tags: frank mir, antoni hardonk, thales leites, ryan jensen

UFC 74 | Antoni Hardonk | Frank Mir | Thales Leites | Ryan Jensen

Research, Statistics, and Predictions on the UFC 74 Fight Card

by LR 8/13/2007 6:02:00 AM

After covering both the Randy Couture vs. Gabriel Gonzaga title bout and the Georges St. Pierre vs. Josh Koscheck contender bout, we are turning our big guns toward the rest of the fight card at UFC 74 in Las Vegas on August 25th. The remaining fights and fighter's profiles courtesy of the fight finder at Sherdog.com are as follows:

Joe "Daddy" Stevenson