UFC 78: Validation Preview and Predictions

by LR 11/15/2007 5:06:00 AM

Bisping being taken down... NBC SportsUFC 78: Validation will roll into the Prudential Arena in Newark, New Jersey on Saturday night. The card features a main event between two TUF winners, Rashad Evans and Michael Bisping. In a light heavyweight matchup, Houston Alexander will be looking to continue his domination of the division by taking on a heavy handed Thiago Silva. Spencer Fisher also looks to keep a good thing going in an explosive battle with Frankie Edgar. The card also features a number of good undercard matchups that should either excite the crowd or bore the fans to death, we'll see who shows up to win. Let's take an in-depth look into what many consider the UFC's weakest card to date, but take a closer look and you may find some gems.

Rashad Evans vs. Michael “The Count” Bisping

Arguably, both of these fighters could definitely cut down to Middleweight and make the division worth a damn, but instead we will see both fighters try to make a run at moving themselves up toward the upper heap in the Light Heavyweight division. Rashad comes into the bout sporting a 10-0-1 record, but has yet to fight any of the top competition. His last bout against Tito Ortiz caused a small controversy due to Ortiz grabbing the fence causing the score for the round to be a draw. Ortiz won the first round 10-9 and lost the last round 9-10 to Evans. It caused the fight to end in a draw and a promise of a rematch. It's rumored that the winner of this matchup will fight Ortiz.

Bisping is also coming off a controversial fight that is considered one of the worst decisions by a judging crew in MMA this year. Many fans believe Matt Hamill won their matchup at UFC 75. Bisping also comes into this matchup with an undefeated record of 14-0, but like Evans, hasn't fought top competition.

This battle will be a matchup of conflicting styles to an extent. Bisping definitely would rather stand and Rashad seems to like to work the standup enough to set up his wrestling abilities. Bisping showed some good boxing technique against Hamill and seems to have improved his standup significantly, but he showed hesitation in running through Hamill because he was a wrestler. We could see the same thing from Bisping in this battle unless he somehow works on being aggressive against a wrestler. Obviously, he wasn't comfortable in his abilities enough to get into the zone of a wrestler in his last bout, but Hamill didn't try to do much when taking down Bisping. Bisping also had zero takedown defense against Hamill. It should definitely be a gauge for Bisping to learn from. Evans has some decent standup with a combination of kicks and punching. His defense is okay, but his wrestling ability will be the skill that could propel him to win this fight.

My pick for this fight will be Rashad Evans based on the pure fact that Bisping's sprawl was non-existent in his last bout. I believe Evans will shoot his hips and put Bisping to the floor pretty quickly, and I don't think Bisping has the massive power to knockout Evans very quickly. Bisping has knocked fighters out, but in the UFC, he remains cautious. He doesn't want to overextend his stride and get caught or get taken down quickly. Rashad doesn't really have finishing power, so I'll take him by decision

Pick: Rashad Evans by Unanimous Decision.

Houston Alexander vs. Thiago Silva Alexander handling Sakara... NBC Sports

Houston is somewhat of a sensation in the UFC currently. He came in to fight Keith Jardine as a late replacement likely to lose to Jardine and ended up spectacularly knocking him out instantly. His raw power is uncanny in providing him knockouts. His last bout against Alessio Sakara proved to be a quick fight and wasn't entirely a test to Alexander's abilities. Alessio came out before the battle stating he was going to try to fight with Houston's strength because he felt he had a better boxing game. Bad idea playing into Houston's strength. Will Thiago have a better gameplan?

Silva, if you hadn't noticed, is a Chute Box fighter, hence the last name. Like many of the Chute Box fighters, he possesses some outstanding Muay Thai skills and a good ju-jitsu base on the ground. Silva is the type of opponent the UFC looks to be setting up for Houston to punch out. Although Silva has some great standup, Houston's power could be a potential problem for Silva. Interestingly enough, many people said that about Tomasz Drwal. I found it odd how people picked Drwal who seemed to have horrible standup, but a ton of power. Drwal's looping punches were evident in many of the fights leading up to the bout and it almost seemed as if he was just swinging for the fence with no regard as to how he would defend the counter. Silva took advantage. Houston seems to have a better gameplan for strikers though. If he can't catch you standing, he will catch you in the clinch. Silva has had some impressive battles, but I believe Alexander's strength will be no match. The X factor is Alexander's cardio. Will he be able to continue battle if it hits the second round?

Pick: Houston Alexander via first round (T)KO.

Frank “The Answer” Edgar vs. Spencer “The King” Fisher

A battle of a couple of bangers, this fight looks to have the makings of a great back and forth battle. Fisher has experience on his side sporting a veteran record of 20-3, Edgar is fairly new with a 7-0 record. I'll make this a brief breakdown since I'm rather interested in seeing how this fight will pan out because it's a fairly tough battle to determine. Both fighters are very well-rounded, tough as nails, and have had some very good success. Edgar took out Bocek recently at UFC 73 and a very tough Tyson Griffin at UFC 67. Fisher is coming off an exciting battle against Sam Stout at UFN 10.

This is going to come down to who can outstrike their opponent before they decide to hit the mat, if they do at all. Fisher is unbelievably tough to beat and has only been stopped once, the other two losses being by decision. Edgar seems to also be the type of fighter who has a tendency to go the distance much like Fisher has done recently. I believe Fisher's experience, toughness, and overall ability to recover should push him through on this one.

Pick: Spencer Fisher via Unanimous Decision.

Karo “The Heat” Parisyan vs. Ryo “Piranha” Chonan

Finally, Karo will fight again and try to make a claim that he deserves a damn title shot already. He comes into this fight at 17-5 with a long layover after his fight with Josh Burkman at UFC 71 in which he made Burkman miss haymakers nearly the entire fight. Pariysan is strictly a judo fighter who loves to put down the hip toss in his matches and dominate his opponent with ground work and fleet footedness. He isn’t overly powerful and has in fact won 7 out of his last 9 fights via decision. To be perfectly honest, I’m not a huge fan of Pariysan for the mere fact that I believe he will get overwhelmed at the top of the heap. He seems to have a great way of avoiding damage, but can’t deal out enough damage to stop an opponent, leaving open the possibility of being beaten in later rounds. Will he be able to stop the “Piranha” from defeating him? I believe he can.

Chonan is a veteran ex-PRIDE fighter with a background in judo. He is most famous for being completely dominated by Anderson Silva in their PRIDE Shockwave 2004 matchup, but somehow pulling off one of the most difficult submissions in the flying scissor heel hook. Quite an impressive fight. Chonan has problems with power as evident in his losses to Dan Henderson and Phil Baroni, and he’s susceptible to the better submission fighters as evident in his loss to Paulo Filho. He was beaten inside the first round by the Brazilian ju-jitsu expert. Although he’s taken some big losses to some strong opponents, Chonan is fairly well-rounded with decent striking skills and an overall excellent judo game. He’s a bit small at 185, but he will be bigger since he is dropping down to 170 for the UFC. Look for him to have a bit more power and size on Parisyan.

A tough matchup indeed. I believe Chonan has the judo skills to really stop Parisyan from moving in on him for big hip tosses and judo moves that could temporarily put Chonan in bad positions. Parisyan is still very well rounded and active in his fights early. Parisyan should be able to keep working Chonan tired and end the fight in a decision win. It’ll be interesting to see if Parisyan shows up with some more power since he’s been off for months and hopefully gaining strength and training during that time.

Pick: Karo Parisyan via Unanimous Decision.

Thiago “Pitbull” Alves vs. Chris “Lights Out” Lytle

Alves is an American Top Team prospect with power in his hands. He has 7 fights in the UFC, 5 wins, with his most notable victories over John Alessio, Tony DeSouza, and Kuniyoshi Hironaka. He has some hard striking that could overwhelm the veteran Chris Lytle. Lytle has been around for quite awhile. He’s a very good submission expert with a number of losses against some big name fighters, but he has been able to been nearly everyone that isn’t near the top of the heap. He’s lost to Matt Hughes and Matt Serra most recently, both by decision. He’s only been stopped once in his 14 losses, losing 13 by decision, making a statement for Lytle’s longevity in his fights.

Alves’s main weakness is his submission defense. In two of his losses, he suffered submissions to Spencer Fisher and Derrick Noble. Problem is, Alves’s power is a huge factor for Lytle, but Lytle seems to avoid the big punches and take the fight to the ground. This is going to be my small upset pick of the night, I’m going to go with Chris Lytle via submission.

Pick: Chris Lytle via submission, second round.

Other matchups
Marcus “Maximus” Aurelio (14-5) vs. Luke “Lil Hulk” Caudillo (13-8)

 

Aurelio is a very good submission fighter with the ability to avoid big punches and strikes, the kind of stuff that Caudillo will be trying to land as he has 9 wins by (T)KO. He’s susceptible to submissios with 6 losses by submission and this matchup should be no different. In true TJ Desantis speak, Aurelio should win by triangle CHOKE!


Pick: Marcus Aurelio via first round submission (triangle choke).


Joe Doerkson (39-10) vs. Ed “Short Fuse” Herman (13-5)

I like Doerkson in this fight specifically because he’s a submission fighter with a boatload more experience. Both fighters have fought each other before at SF 7 – Frightnight back in October of 2004. Doerkson squeaked out a triangle choke in the third round to win. I’m not a huge fan of Ed Herman, but he has some decent skill on the floor. I think Doerkson’s skills should still be crisp enough to take out Herman in a lengthy battle.

Pick: Joe Doerkson via second round submission.

Akihiro Gono (27-12-7) vs. Tamden “The Barn Cat” McCrory (8-0)

Great matchup between a natural welterweight and Gono who is dropping down from a middleweight to fight at 170. McCrory is a fairly tall fighter with some size. He’s undefeated with a win over Pete Spratt at UFN 10 nearly 5 months ago. He seems to be mainly a knockout fighter, but has been pulling out some very good chokes in his last two fights. His length and reach are definitely advantages and he has been known to have deceptive strength and devastating elbows and knees. This will be a fairly tough fight for Gono.

Let’s get one thing out of the way. Gono doesn’t suck. Many fans seem to jump on the PRIDE fighters suck bandwagon, but Gono has only lost recently to the big names. Shogun by strikes, Henderson by knockout, and Kang by decision were his last three losses. Gono is fairly hard to submit, he has some decent submission skills, and has power in his hands as well. I’m going to go with the safe bet on this one, Gono has the experience and toughness to outlast McCrory. Plus, give some love to the Japanese, come on!

Pick: Akihiro Gono via Unanimous Decision.

Joe Lauzon (15-3) vs. Jason Reinhardt (18-0)

If you actually think Reinhardt has a chance because he’s 18-0, you’re nuts. If Reinhardt wins, I’ll forever shut the hell up. Reinhardt is about 20 miles south of where I am in Decatur, IL. He’s fought mainly cans for most of his career, but has some power and ground skills. Fact is, this is a battle that Reinhardt will have a tough time winning. He hasn’t fought really any tough fighters, his opponents’ records combine for a very small win percentage, and Lauzon has established himself as a possible force in the division. His training with BJ Penn should definitely help immensely.

Pick: Joe Lauzon via first round submission.

Those are my predictions and previews to each of the matchups at UFC 78. It isn’t exactly the most spectacular card that the UFC has put on, but it definitely has some fights worth watching. Check it out on Saturday night on Pay-per-view at 10 PM EST.



The UFC Middleweight Division needs a kick in the ass

by LR 10/16/2007 10:34:00 AM

TheUFCResults.comThe UFC Middleweight Division has been scrutinized lately due to the upcoming UFC 77 main event, Anderson Silva vs. Rich Franklin. If you look down the list of middleweights trying to work their way up the ranks to get a shot at Anderson Silva, you cannot find a single fighter who deserves a chance. Many have began their runs, but fell short in recent fights. Rich Franklin and Anderson Silva are the only fighters at the top of one of the weakest divisions in MMA, if not the weakest. Let's take an inside look at the UFC's middleweight division and really see if there is any potential for it to improve any time soon.

Current situation in the division

Currently, Anderson Silva is dominating the division. His recent wins over Nathan Marquardt and Travis Lutter were a bit different, but wins regardless. Marquardt proved to be no match for Silva, even though many fans felt Marquardt may have had a potential shot at beating the Brazilian. Lutter had some fairly decent attempts at ending the fight, but was unable to catch Silva in a submission. Both fighters are far from being back in the picture for a title run. Franklin fought Silva at UFC 64 in a title defense matchup. Silva came in and completely destroyed Franklin with his signature knee strikes in a Muay Thai clench. The result of that bout has been driving fans to pick Franklin in their upcoming rematch in Franklin's hometown. Should Silva be that big of a favorite?

Yes, he should. Silva's striking is the best the Middleweight Division has to offer. His lanky physique may fool the casual fan, but when he lands strikes, his opponents seem to crumple to the mat as if they were shot. The great thing about Anderson Silva's unbelievable striking is that he can concentrate more on his ground game because his standup is so good. Reports from his camp confirm that he has been working on his ju-jistu game extensively and will be very tough to take on the ground. It remains to be seen if he can handle the ground game, but his long legs and height definitely help him in that area of MMA.

Let's get into hypothetical mode here. What if Franklin beats Anderson Silva at UFC 77? Silva drops down to beat up on two unsuspecting opponents and most likely regains the rematch while Franklin possibly takes on MacDonakd or Okami... again. I'm not too keen on MacDonald actually beating Franklin, but Okami could edge out Franklin in a bout. He nearly submitted him in their last bout. Okami vs. Silva, in my opinion, is not a very interesting fight. Silva wins, regains a shot at the title again against Franklin, and the cycle repeats itself. What I'm getting at here is that no matter how you want to move around the players in the Middleweight Division, Silva and Franklin seem to be running toward an endless cycle. MacDonald and Okami don't seem to have the skills to move up into the top, although Okami could potentially beat Franklin. We have come to a crossroads in the discussion. Who the hell does the UFC bring in to make this division worth a damn?

Bring in the ringers

Who can the UFC actually bring in to give this division a much needed kick in the ass? The obvious choice is Paulo Filho. Filho is currently the middleweight champion in the WEC, a promotion owned by Zuffa. Since he is likely under a Zuffa contract, bring him over to the UFC to give Silva a challenge on the ground. Filho is known for his amazing ground tactics and is currently ranked in the top 5 of middleweights in the world. He could prove to be a significant test for Silva. Although he wasn't very impressive in his title win over Joe Doerkson in his lone WEC bout, he was able to also use some decent standup. When I say decent, I mean ok standup. He managed to loop some punches and catch Doerkson. I feel that it wasn't impressive technique, and Filho certainly doesn't have the reach that Silva has. Filho's main strength and overall gameplan is taking you down and submitting you.That's exactly why he'd be a great fit for a title run against Silva.

The reported rumor according to George Garcia of TAGGRadio is that Frank Trigg may be making an appearance against Paulo Filho in the WEC. As of today, a deal hasn't been struck and Trigg remains adamant in stating he wouldn't fight if it wasn't for the title. What if Trigg manages to take out Filho? Trigg has much better standup in my opinion. He also has some fairly good wrestling, but would probably need to work on it extensively to really counter Filho's ground tactics. If he can manage to stay away from Filho's submissions and gain the upper hand in the standup war, he may be able to irk out a victory over Filho. Will he make a run at the UFC title at Middleweight? I'm not completely sure. If the WEC signs him, it'll end a small beef that Zuffa had with Trigg over comments he made as a PRIDE commentator about the UFC. They may keep him as the WEC champ since he is 35 and nearly the end of a career. Or they could send him on his way to the UFC to make an impact on the division. Anything is possible with such a weak division. In my opinion, Trigg won't be hitting the UFC ever again.

The most interesting addition would be Matt Lindland. Although Dana White has a real problem with Matt Lindland and vice versa, it's possible that Lindland's skill alone may get him another chance in the UFC. A powerful wrestler with some great ground tactics along with some knockout power, Lindland has had only 2 losses in the last 2 years, one to Quinton Jackson and another to Fedor Emelianenko, both guys being outside of his base weight division. Lindland would be a fantastic addition, but he is rather old as well, although hasn't shown much in diminishing skill. Can Dana White get past his issues with Lindland and bury the hatchet to improve the division? Doubtful, but I would love to see it happen.

We could make a case for Joe "Diesel" Riggs. He fought Eugene Jackson in their Strikeforce bout and demolished him with a brutal ground and pound. But is Riggs better at Middleweight? He looked like he was, but he was taking on an older Eugene Jackson who could not handle Riggs's power. Riggs is also locked in with Strikeforce for a bit, and participating in the Middleweight Tournament that Strikeforce will be putting on. If he can manage to demolish the competition the same way, could he earn a shot at Cung Le and Frank Shamrock? Cung Le is a possibility, but Shamrock would probably run from the prospect of fighting a very tough "Diesel" Riggs.

Big names

Dan Henderson is the most talked about light heavyweight who has the title for the welterweight division in PRIDE. Welterweight in PRIDE was around 185. Should Henderson drop down? YES!! Please! Henderson dropping down could potentially begin a cycle that will see Silva being beaten and having Franklin, Henderson, and Silva in the running instead of two fighters. Add in Filho and maybe Lindland, we could see a surge in the fights and talent in the division. Henderson's wrestling and awesome power would be a problem for Silva, along with Hendo's granite chin. It's beyond me why Henderson doesn't drop down.

Michael Bisping, you say? I'm not completely convinced he would do much in the Middleweight division. Simply put, he's a striker who doesn't have awesome knockout power, but he can throw the leather on the ground. He doesn't have great takedown defense, as was evident in the Matt Hamill fight, and his ground game, although improving, wasn't the finishing type. I think he'd be a mid-tier to upper-tier Middleweight who would feel the pain of the 3 big names if Henderson decided to drop.

Ryo Chonan is another name being thrown around. Honestly, Chonan had the most insane flying scissor kick to heel hook submission I've ever seen. He has apparently decided to fight at Welterweight in the UFC for the time being. Could he make an impact at the Middleweight level? Most likely, he couldn't. Although he has a tough chin and can take a beating, he'd have to pull off some amazing wins in order to get to Silva, in which case he'd probably get beaten into a pulp.

As far fetched as this sounds, Robbie Lawler is always a name that should come up. Currently fighting at middleweight, could he make a run toward the UFC? It's always a possibility. He has heavy hands and has matured his game a bit. In his win over "Ninja" Rua in EliteXC's Uprising event on September 15th of this year, he showed a patience in his bout as was able to coast through the bout without ever really gassing himself as he has in the past. Lawler could prove to be a force with his unbelievable power.

Final thoughts

Henderson should drop to Middleweight and give Silva a run for his money. Imagine the matchups then. If Silva beats Franklin, line up a Hendo vs. Silva fight. If Franklin ends up beating Silva, Henderson can take on Franklin. Either way, it puts another huge name in the division who can take out either fighter and set up a number of matchups to get back to the title. Add in a very good Matt Lindland and possibly Filho or Riggs, the division could actually become interesting. A lot of the ideas I expressed here are long shots, but White needs to man up and sign Lindland. He's a free agent and a very good fighter. Henderson needs to realize that owning the Middleweight division could potentially get him a pay day that he wants. Make it happen.

 





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