Sean Sherk vs. BJ Penn

The most anticipated bout so far this year has to be BJ Penn vs. Sean Sherk. With Sherk’s positive steroid test and the UFC stripping him of his title, he definitely has much to prove to the UFC fanbase. Penn is also trying to prove that he has changed his ways from being only a fighter who relies on talent to a fighter who has the cardio and determination to dominate in the UFC. Any way you look at this fight, it’s going to be an epic war.

Stylistically, it’s a damn good matchup. Sherk has unbelievable cardio, great wrestling skills, and an active enough ground and pound game to keep the fight on the ground. Penn has K-1 striking abilities, good power, world class grappling game coupled with amazing flexibility, and an improved gas tank. Penn should have a standing advantage while Sherk’s wrestling skills should be the controlling factor on the ground. The x-factor lies in Penn’s jiu-jitsu and ability to attempt submissions with Sherk’s massive physique on top of him. If Penn can create some dangerous situations for Sherk, it could cause some shifts on the ground and potentially allow Penn to submit or at least escape to the feet where he can strike.

Historically, Sherk has only had problems with bigger Welterweights Georges St. Pierre and Matt Hughes. St. Pierre had some great striking abilities to counter his shoots, and Hughes was the better wrestler. Penn will have a striking advantage, but it’ll be interesting to see how his flexibility becomes a factor in avoiding the takedowns.

Penn’s losses were to a much bigger Lyoto Machida, a controversial decision to Georges St. Pierre, Jens Pulver, and to Matt Hughes at UFC 63. Penn claimed to have been hurt during his bout with Hughes, and it’s been speculated whether Penn simply ran out of gas due to a rib injury. Of course, that’s all in the past. A healthier Penn with a bigger gas tank could be the key to success against Sherk in this case. History would certainly point toward those areas needing improvement, and Penn has trained to do so.

Who should I pick? It’s a tough call. Many writers are leaning toward Sherk due to his wrestling ability being a huge problem for Penn. Ben Fowlkes pointed out that Penn has had problems against both St. Pierre and Matt Hughes in the wrestling department, and that his standup striking hasn’t been a finishing factor since Paul Creighton. I disagree. Penn was defeating St. Pierre with below average cardio and damaged St. Pierre much more than anyone I’ve seen. Penn dominated Hughes in their first matchup, and was likely disadvantaged from the rib injury in their second fight. As for his striking, it’s still an effective way to damage opponents which usually causes them to try to shoot to the ground to recover. Penn is damaging his enemies with his strikes, but most of those opponents get submitted as they try to escape to the ground to avoid damage.

I’m going to take Penn by TKO/KO here. I think Sherk has some great submission defense, but Penn has the great striking to pick apart Sherk steadily and eventually pound him out. To be perfectly honest, I can see Penn pushing the damage to a point where Sherk sloppily shoots for horrible takedowns that leave him open for the submission, but I think Penn will want to make a statement here.

Leland’s Prediction: BJ Penn via TKO/KO, Round 3

Lyoto Machida vs. Tito Ortiz

I’d have to see some significant changes from Tito Ortiz during the fight to give him a chance in this one. His last performance wasn’t his best, and it led to many fans claiming that Ortiz has past his prime of fighting in mixed martial arts. While I agree that he’s lost some of his old school beatdown skills, he’s still a fairly decent fighter against mid-tier talent. Is Machida a mid-tier fighter? No, he isn’t.

Ortiz has claimed that he’ll push the pace, get in Machida’s face, and put him into a world of pain on the ground where he likely won’t be able to use his elusiveness to evade. Although I believe only a quicker fighter can defeat Machida at this point and that the strategy he claims he wants to use has potential to work, can Ortiz actually pull it off? I don’t think so.

Ortiz hasn’t shown blazing speed in the cage, and Machida eats opponents alive when they bull rush him into the cage. While Machida may not have impressive knockout power, I still believe he possesses it. Great counter-striking has stopped Ortiz in the past, and Machida’s ground game isn’t a weakness for Ortiz to exploit.

Leland’s Prediction: Lyoto Machida via unanimous decision

Keith Jardine vs. Wanderlei Silva

As with most of the MMA action recently, here’s a little in-depth analysis of the betting odds that have been released. Fans can head over to Bestfightodds.com for an aggregation of all the odds around the Internet, but for the most part, they fall within +/- 50. Let’s check out some of the better deals out there for those of you wanting to cash in on some underdogs.

BJ Penn vs. Sean Sherk

While I adamantly made my case that BJ Penn will defeat Sean Sherk, I’m still curious about winning money. Sherk’s line is around +200 - +215, which is a solid bet considering Sherk’s dominance in the lightweight division over the years. He’s a solid fighter with a great ground game. If you think he can lay n’ pray his way to victory, by all means, place some money on him.

Lyoto Machida vs. Tito Ortiz

I normally wouldn’t make this bet. He’s at +175 - +185 on most betting lines, and his last few performances haven’t exactly been impressive. Machida, on the other hand, is such a strategist in the cage; it’ll be hard to defeat him in any capacity. Tito has stated he’s 100% though, and at 100%, we may actually see a Tito of old. I wouldn’t bet on it personally, but if you believe Tito can really put Machida into danger on the ground, he is the underdog bet.

Keith Jardine vs. Wanderlei Silva

I like this line a lot. Jardine has great reach to stay away from Wanderlei for the three rounds, and it could end up being another decision matchup that sees Jardine winning. I have a bit of favoritism toward Wanderlei, but when it comes to money, bet on who you think wins the style matchup. This should be a decent bet.

Ivan Salaverry vs. Rousimar Palhares

I’ve been unbelievably impressed with Palhares since his Fury FC leglock display on two quality opponents. Negao and Acacio were crushed by his leglocks, and while Salaverry is a venerable opponent and veteran of the sport, Palhares could very well be a Paulo Filho clone.

Other action…

Yoshida vs. Koppenhaver has been a hot topic with Koppenhaver as the underdog. Stay away from that one as Yoshida has been an animal in Cage Force in Japan. He uses the cage very well to his advantage, and I don’t see Koppenhaver having an easy time with him at all. Plus, he’s only at +135 - + 150, not huge money to be won.

Etim vs. Clementi has been discussed a lot. While Clementi is my favorite to win, Etim has a chance. I would still recommend staying away from the bet on Etim though. He’s taken some beatings in the past and luckily won via some great submission work. He can’t continue to win with such luck as he moves up in competition.

Good luck with your betting everyone, and check out BetUS for your betting needs. Click the link below if you want to get started over there and make some solid bets for this weekend’s UFC event.

Sherdog announced today that Rousimar Palhares will take on Ivan Salaverry in the UFC. His signing has been confirmed through sources according to the article. Fans should be excited about "Toquinho" being a part of the UFC's talent pool. A very good jiu-jitsu fighter with powerful submission strength and a decent standup game. He will prove to be problematic for many of the fighters in the division. Here's a sampling:

Rousimar “Toquinho” Palhares was the center of attention at the Fury FC show on December 7th of last year. In fact, the stakes were much higher than many casual fans who didn’t watch the event may have known. On the line was the Fury FC Middleweight championship, the potential for a Brazilian Top Team vs. Chute Box showdown in the Final, a bet between Mario Sperry of BTT and Rudimar of Chute Box for a Toyota Land Cruiser SUV, and the pride and respect gained from defeating a rival camp in the heart of Brazil. Most importantly, the event was being streamed live by ProElite and was a chance for “Toquinho” to show fans worldwide of his dominance in the Brazilian MMA scene. He did not disappoint.

Palhares crushed the competition by showcasing a submission grappling game that looked eerily familiar to that of fellow Brazilian Paulo Filho. “Toquinho” looked as if he had broken Fabio Negao’s leg or ankle with a brutal ankle or leg lock in his first match of the night. He backed up that performance by crushing Daniel Acacio of Chute Box with a nearly identical performance. With strong physical attributes and a great jiu-jitsu base, he could prove to be the next Paulo Filho type submission grappler. Submission technique coupled with absolute power can never be counted out of a fight. Ask Chael Sonnen.

News from Sherdog.com has hinted that the UFC is expected to sign the 7-1 Middleweight prospect to help bolster a weak talent pool in the division. Palhares could very well be an answer to the question as to who can ascend to the top and actually give the top spots a run for their money. Although he only has 8 fights professionally, “Toquinho” has displayed some awesome power and skill. It wouldn’t be surprising to see Palhares run through some of the striking talent in the division with ease.

Although we haven’t seen him in the cage yet, it should be noted that “Toquinho” will be a force in the division if he comes to the UFC. The Middleweight division in the UFC right now is fairly weak toward the bottom, and Palhares could move quickly through the ranks before running into contender talent like Okami or Franklin. One thing is for certain, I will be watching Palhares closely. He was too impressive in his Fury FC wins to discount his skills.