UFC 83: Serra vs. St. Pierre Preview & Predictions

by LR 4/17/2008 3:18:00 PM

The UFC makes its debut in Canada with an already sold out event in Montreal at the Bell Centre on Saturday night. The featured bout matches up Matt “The Terror” Serra against Georges “Rush” St. Pierre in a highly anticipated rematch  of their UFC 69 battle that saw Matt Serra upset St. Pierre. Rich Franklin will make his return to the Octagon after his second loss to UFC Middleweight champion Anderson Silva. He'll take on a venerable Travis Lutter who will test Franklin's submission defense. Other bouts scheduled include Canadian Kalib Starnes vs. Nate “The Rock” Quarry, Mac Danzig vs. Mark Bocek, Michael Bisping vs. Charles McCarthy, and Jason MacDonald vs. Joe “El Dirte” Doerkson, along with a slew of undercard bouts that are sure to entertain us. Let's take a look at the card.

Main Event: Georges “Rush” St. Pierre vs. Matt “The Terror” Serra
UFC Welterweight title bout

Oddly enough, Georges St. Pierre comes into this bout as a huge favorite while Serra once again remains the heavy underdog. St. Pierre's destruction of Matt Hughes at UFC 79 on short notice was stunning in the capacity of being unbelievably dominating. The fact that he can outwrestle any fighter in the weight class is a testament to his training regiment and work ethic. Wrestlers with plenty of credentials to back up their “smack” continue to fall to St. Pierre's superior skills. Pierre also has dynamic striking that is unparalleled in the division, but he has shown weakness in the standup at times, namely against his opponent, Matt Serra.

Serra's abilities are underrated by many fans of the sport. He has very good jiu-jitsu skills on the ground, and his strength can become a huge factor as the fight progresses. He's very tough to defeat by a finish, and he's never been submitted in MMA competition. I firmly believe it'll be a good test for St. Pierre if it becomes a chess match on the ground. The x-factor is Serra's heavy hands. He has some decent striking skills for a smaller welterweight, and with power behind them, we've seen what they can do against St. Pierre.

Bottom line: St. Pierre should win this fight within the first three rounds. He has great power, athleticism, dynamic striking, range, reach, and is coming off a stunning performance against Matt Hughes. Serra definitely has a shot on his feet, but I don't believe he can submit St. Pierre on the floor. Serra has great submission defense, so I'd stray away from St. Pierre defeating him there, but I do believe he can work some wrestling skills to open up the striking.

Leland's Prediction: Georges St. Pierre via TKO, Round 3

Rich “Ace” Franklin vs. Travis Lutter

Rich Franklin is looking to get back on the track back to another title shot. How many title shots can one have after being destroyed the previous two tries? We don't know, but Franklin is still a formidable opponent for anyone trying to make a run at Anderson Silva. He has good power, decent striking, big blow ground and pound, and he's not half bad on the ground either. He's a well-rounded fighter, but he isn't great in any one thing.

Lutter, on the other hand, is a great jiu-jitsu fighter on the ground, but he lacks the powerful hands that Franklin possesses. The biggest problem for Lutter is getting through Franklin's submission defense, a defense that has helped Franklin remain unbeaten by a submission throughout his 25 fight career.

Franklin should take this one. He has fantastic submission defense, and has the hands to defeat Lutter on his feet or on the ground. Franklin has taken on great grapplers in the past, and has always came through with his crushing ground and pound.

Leland's Prediction: Rich Franklin via TKO, Round 2

Michael Bisping vs. Charles “Chainsaw” McCarthy

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UFC 79: The Complete Preview

by LR 12/27/2007 7:33:00 PM

UFCMedia.com (Source)The end of the year cards are here for the sport of mixed martial arts, and nearly all of them look to deliver fantastic action on paper. The UFC's Nemesis card, however, is the clear cut winner as far as providing the most anticipation for many fans. On Saturday night from Mandalay Bay Casino in Las Vegas, Nevada, we'll find out who really is better... Wanderlei "The Axe Murderer" Silva or Chuck "The Iceman" Liddell. If that isn't enough for you to wag your tail next to your television, the rubber match between Georges "Rush" St. Pierre and Matt Hughes will also be featured. The winner will take on Matt Serra for the Welterweight title. Lastly, Rameau Sokoudjou will make his UFC debut against the elusive and frustrating karate tactics of Ryoto "Lyoto" Machida. Let's take a look at this historic fight card.

Main Event
Wanderlei "The Axe Murderer" Silva vs. Chuck "The Iceman" Liddell

The historic matchup of Silva and Liddell has been years in the making. Back when PRIDE was at the top of the food chain, both sides were already talking up a potential matchup of these two explosive strikers during PRIDE Final Conflict 2003. Liddell was stopped by the eventual UFC champion Quinton "Rampage" Jackson after his preliminary round win against Alistair Overeem. That was the closest he had ever been to fighting Wanderlei Silva.

Now, Silva has made the journey to the UFC, and he is in nearly the same position as Liddell. Both fighters are coming off two losses that have stopped their progression as top light heavyweights in the world. Liddell was knocked out within the first flurry on his fight with Quinton Jackson at UFC 71 and lost a close split decision to Keith Jardine at UFC 76. Silva, on the other hand, hasn't been as active lately. He was knocked out by a fierce left hand from Dan Henderson in February of this year to lose his title, and was devastated by Mirko "CroCop" Filipovic at PRIDE Final Conflict Absolute in September of last year.

With that all said, this fight still produces anticipation of being a great war between two very explosive fighters. Both men are coming off two losses, and both men will have to contemplate continuing their careers if they end up losing this battle. It should be a fight that will produce a highlight reel knockout, and there is no doubt that this fight will end by a stoppage of some sort.

Prediction: Wanderlei Silva via second round KO

So many fans and other columnists have expressed the styles matchup as being in favor of Chuck Liddell, but there is other factors that should be considered. Wanderlei Silva is one of the strongest Light Heavyweight strikers in the business. He's overly aggressive and that has, at times, hurt him, but it has also been the pistons that run his engine. His power is unmatched, but he has had problems looping his punches in many of his fights. Look for his training at Xtreme Couture to remedy some of those problems.

I'm still going to take Wanderlei Silva for two reasons. First, Chuck may be a terrific counter puncher, but Silva does seem to capitalize on mistakes. His clinch is very strong, and it could be surprising if he happens to push Liddell much like Rampage did to him in PRIDE. Secondly, Silva's training looks to be solid, whereas Chuck still seems to train specifically in a one-dimensional manner. Striking is his bread and butter while grappling is his escape tactic. Silva has more tools combined with his striking, but whether or not he uses those other tactics is the question. I'm going out on a limb and picking Silva.

Georges "Rush" St. Pierre vs. Matt HughesNewsday (Source)

After Matt Serra injured his back during his training for his matchup with Matt Hughes at UFC 79, St. Pierre swooped in to make this card even more exciting. It also completes the wishes of many fans to see the rubber match happen between the two fighters that was predicted by many to probably be happening in 2008. Instead, we'll get to see it on Saturday night, and it should be fairly exciting.

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UFC 76: Knockout Preview and Predictions

by LR 9/21/2007 11:00:00 AM

With all of the events quickly coming in, I wasn't able to do a full evaluation of the main events on this card, but here is a quick preview of the UFC 76 Knockout event airing on Saturday night at 10 PM EST. Chuck Liddell will look to get back in the hunt for another title shot against Keith Jardine. "Shogun' Rua makes his UFC debut against Forrest Griffin. And in a very intriguing welterweight battle, we will see Jon Fitch take on Diego Sanchez. There are also some very compelling undercard matchups that include Thiago Tavares vs. Tyson Griffin, and Nakamura vs. Machida. As much as the co-main events may not deliver, the undercard battles could potentially deliver some fight of the night votes. Let's get into the breakdown. 

Main Event: Mauricio "Shogun" Rua vs. Forrest Griffin

To hardcore MMA fans, "Shogun" Rua needs no introduction. For the casual MMA fan, here's the rundown. Rua is currently 16-2 in his MMA career, ranked #1 in the world at Light Heavyweight on multiple ranking sites, and has impressively knocked out current UFC Light Heavyweight Champion Quinton Jackson in brutal fashion at PRIDE Total Elimination 2005. Rua is considered by many to be one of the most dominant 205'ers in the world. He fights out of the Chute Boxe Academy in Brazil. He has received a black belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu from Nino Schembri and in Muay Thai from Rafael Cordeiro. This amounts simply that Rua's all around fighting game is amazing. He has unbelievably accurate strikes with great power. He has a very good ju-jitsu background to fall back on when pushes to the ground. He has some of the most devastating knee strikes in MMA. He also has been training in wrestling as well in order to counter it in the cage.

Forrest Griffin is currently 14-4 in his mixed martial arts career. He was the 1st season of Ultimate Fighter winner and defeated Stephan Bonnar in one of the most popular UFC bouts to date. His last bout was a win over Hector Ramirez at UFC 72: Victory via unanimous decision. Griffin is a Xtreme Couture fighter who specializes in ju-jitsu and boxing. He has a very mean ground and pound game and has surprisingly good standup skills. All around, Griffin isn't poor at one skill. He has some decent ground game, some decent striking, and is able to control his opponent in the clinch as well with some surprising power coming out of it, but can he really beat "Shogun" Rua?

I'm not convinced, and I'm fairly certain that Rua's stint in the UFC will be much different than that of CroCop's. Rua is mainly a Muay Thai striker. He doesn't use his ju-jitsu unless he has to, and he loves to use the knees. Sure, he can't use those knee strikes on the ground, but he can up against the cage in a clinch. People always bring up how much he used headstomps and knees on the ground. It is insignificant. Head stomps were almost always finishing moves to an already beaten opponent. Knees on the ground has been replaced with elbows, something I think Shogun will definitely heavily implement into his ground game. He does, however, love to use a ground and pound style that gives him full extension to his punches. This was mostly a PRIDE attribute though. It will be very interesting to see how he incorporates the elbows into his game. I think with the cage wall, Shogun will take advantage of clinching and kneeing as much as he can to weaken Griffin. Shogun's kicking abilities are world class. He is able to pull of flying kicks and knees very quickly and the transition from standing to the kick is almost in a flash. Look for Shogun to incorporate those as well to keep range from Forrest.

To be honest, I don't see what Forrest can do other than aggressively come out strong and push Shogun to the ground or into a cage clinch and throw bombs. If he can do that, he may have a chance, but I think Shogun's versatility and standup game will suit well in the cage. Shogun wins this.

Prediction: "Shogun" Rua via 2nd round TKO/KO.

Chuck "The Iceman" Liddell vs. Keith 'The Dean of Mean" Jardine

I'm really going to cut this analysis short due to the lack of interest I have in this fight. Liddell has knockout power, great takedown defense, and a knack for finding angles to put a fist into his opponents face. What does Keith Jardine have? If someone can tell me, please do. He has some power, some okay boxing skills, but he won't take Chuck down and won't outstrike an elite striker like Chuck Liddell. I don't see any way that Jardine can beat Liddell except a puncher's chance in hell that he catches Liddell and Liddell's brain isn't healed from his last beating. Basically, that means it's a long shot. Long shots sometimes win though, Jardine can tell you that.

Prediction: Chuck Liddell, 1st round KO.

Diego "Nightmare" Sanchez vs. Jon Fitch 

17-1 Diego Sanchez vs. 14-2 Jon Fitch, a battle we are going to see. Sanchez is coming off his decision loss to Josh Koscheck at UFC 69 - Shootout. He had some very notable wins previous to that bout over Joe Riggs, Karo Parisyan, John Alessio, Nick Diaz, and Kenny Florian. Sanchez is currently training in California with Rob Garcia after his split with Greg Jackson in New Mexico. It has been reported that Sanchez has stated on a few occasions, most notably interviews with Sherdog.com, that the split was mainly due to the addition of Georges St. Pierre. Sanchez felt that since the gym had been formed by himself, Jackson, and Jardine, that they shouldn't bring in a high level fighter at his weight class. A clash began and ultimately caused Diego Sanchez to head to California. With all controversy aside, Sanchez is still regarded as a very good fighter, specializing in boxing, gaidojutsu - Greg Jackson's submission system. Gaidojutsu is primarily a combination of judo, wrestling, ju-jitsu, and kick boxing. This formula of skills has definitely molded Diego into the fighter he is today. Sanchez's style is very versatile. He can shoot in for a takedown, pound opponents out, submit them, or he can stand up and trade with fairly decent power in his punches. He has a very good defensive guard and is able to dirty box in the clinch fairly well. His intensity has been lacking as he was very defensive against Josh Koscheck. Look for Fitch to possibly push the pace to get Diego off balance.

Jon Fitch comes into this bout at 14-2, most notably beating Thiago Alves, Josh Burkman, and Shonie Carter. He holds a brown belt in Brazilian ju-jitsu from Dave Camarillo, and he primarily has a wrestling background as he was a 4 year letterman and team captain of the Purdue wrestling squad. He has also added kickboxing to his skillset as he has been training with the American Kickboxing Academy. He can attribute his success to the training that they have provided since he is undefeated since he's began work there. Fitch is somewhat aggressive in the Octagon at times, but utilizes his great wrestling background when in trouble. Fitch's great ground game can also be attributed to his strong physique. Taking on a very powerful Thiago Alves and basically powering out of submission attempts and takedowns, Fitch showed why he belongs in this current matchup with Diego Sanchez.

With Diego's last loss being a boring standup battle that really was never pushed, I'm looking for Fitch's great skills and power to overwhelm Sanchez. Sanchez has some great skills on his feet and on the ground, but I think it's Fitch's time to rise. He's been training very hard in all aspects of MMA, and he's been dominant against some more powerful guys. I think he's going to use his strength to pound on Diego and his cardio to outlast the fight. Fitch will win it by decision.

Prediction: Jon Fitch via unanimous decision.

Matt "Handsome" Wiman vs. Michihiro Omigawa

Matt Wiman, best known for his appearance on Ultimate Fighter Season 5, holds a record of 7-3, recently winning via TKO over Brian Geraghty at UFC - TUF 5 Finale. Before the show, he had a losing streak of two fights. He was knocked out by a flying knee from Spencer Fisher and lost a decision to Nick Agallar. He's proficient in Boxing, Muay Thai, Wrestling, and ju-jitsu, but is mainly known as a standup fighter who likes to revert to a ground and pound style when it applies. He has some decent ground tactics, and on more than one fight, passed guard and full mounted opponents.

Michihiro Omigawa is a DEEP Asian MMA veteran. He currently holds a 4-3 record with a three fight win streak coming into the Wiman bout. He has notable losses over Aaron Riley and Gesias Calvancanti. As was Nakamura, Omigawa is primarily a Judo fighter. Omigawa, much like Wiman, likes to take opponents to the ground and pound them. The only video I have really seen of Omigawa was the Jason Chambers fight at Icon Sport - Lawler vs. Niko 2. Omigawa showed some impressive ground and pound, but nearly got caught in a triangle choke. He was able to pass guard and mount Chambers though after the initial submission scare. After Chambers was able to neutralize the full mount, Omigawa nearly guillotine choked Chambers out, but the fight ended and Omigawa declared the winner by split decision.

I like Wiman in this fight. Omigawa's strikes were pretty weak, nothing amazing. He's susceptible to submission from the top as well. Wiman needs to come out and take a page from Calvancanti's book. He needs to strike aggressively from the start and pound Omigawa immediately. I'm looking for Wiman to come out hard, but don't count Omigawa out. I think this fight could go either way, but I'll go with Wiman based on the fact that DEEP fighters haven't faired well in the UFC, and Omigawa hasn't faired well against aggressive fighters who ground and pound.

Prediction: Matt Wiman via TKO, 1st round.

Kazuhiro Nakamura vs. Ryoto "Lyoto" Machida

Another big fight for Machida, Kazuhiro Nakamura is considered by some to be a late ranked top 10 Light Heavyweight in the world. He currently holds an 11-6 record, mainly losing to only big name fighters such as Mauricio Rua, Josh Barnett, Wanderlei Silva, Dan Henderson, and Antonio Rogerio Nogueira twice. He's primarily a Judo fighter with some fairly decent hands and ground game. Most of his wins have come via decision, seven of them. He's not a guy with tremendous knockout power, but he has a standup style much like a pitbull. He ducks his head and basically runs at you with fists blazing. He likes to use leg kicks to set up standup runs, and has a likeness to use knees in his matches. Clinching with Nakamura is a bad idea since his judo is fairly good. He can simply use leg trips to reverse the hold to a position where he is on top.

Ryoto Machida is a Japanese-Brazilian MMA fighter, son of Shotokan karate master Yoshizo Machida. Machida is currently 10-0 with notable wins over Rich Franklin, B.J. Penn, and Stephan Bonnar. He currently trains out of Black House, along side UFC Middleweight Champion, Anderson Silva. His main skillset consists of Shotokan karate and Brazilian ju-jitsu. Machida relies on his kicking ability in fights, as well as a base of ju-jitsu and some decent wrestling techniques. Machida has a neutralizing guard and is able to use his ju-jitsu to create opportunities to escape the ground and pound. His main knock is his standup in his fists. He has decent power as evident in his knockout of Rich Franklin, but consistently shows poor striking ability. In his battle with BJ Penn, he showed some significantly poor looping strikes.

This is a battle that I think will go to decision fairly easily. Both fighters aren't exactly the most aggressive, but can show flurries of aggression. Nakamura has some very good clinch skills with his Judo, but Machida's karate has some impressive sweeps, ie. BJ Penn fight, 2nd round. Both fighters don't possess the knockout power to end this quickly. I think Machida's karate is highly underestimated in MMA. Many MMA fighters don't train in Karate, but many MMA skillsets branch off from it. Some of Machida's sweeps are very precise and unbelievably effective. Machida has also been said to be "elusive" in his stance. He's an unorthodox southpaw fighter. He sits back pressing kicks at his opponent until his opponent rushes him. A very intelligent fighter, I think Machida wins this by decision.

Prediction: Ryoto Machida, unanimous decision.

Tyson Griffin vs. Thiago Tavares

Quite possibly the match of the evening and hopefully shown on the Pay-Per-View portion of the broadcast, Griffin vs. Tavares is a classic striker vs. submission specialist fight. Tyson Griffin comes into this bout off a recent controversial win over Clay Guida. He has some other notable wins over Duane Ludwig and Urijah Faber, fairly impressive TKO wins. Griffin's main skill is his wrestling and striking. He's a very well conditioned fighter who likes to clinch with his opponent and punish them with strikes. Training with Xtreme Couture is only going to make him better, much better.

Thiago Tavares has been a wrecking ball in MMA in his career. He's currently undefeated with a 13-0 record. His last win was against Jason Black, and he absolutely dominated the Miletich fighter. Known for his fantastic ju-jitsu skills, Tavares has a great shoot that is fairly quick and hard to defend against. He's fairly quick and also has some very good defensive moves. Tavares currently trains with Brazilian Top Team, who houses fighters such as Paulo Filho, Murilo Bustamante, Vitor Belfort, and Ricardo Arona.

I don't see Tyson Griffin being able to control Tavares at all. Tavares was absolutely dominant against a wrestling/striking Jason Black. Black even had great takedown sprawls that Tavares simply squeezed past and took Black's back. Griffin's cardio is amazing, but it will be nullified if Tavares is able to submit him early. Tavares is also very able when it comes to defending against the striking, and I believe Tavares will get Griffin in a submission in the 2nd round.

Prediction: Thiago Tavares, 2nd round submission.

Diego "The Octopus" Saraiva vs. Jeremy Stephens

Saraiva comes into this bout with a 9-5-1 record, 8 wins by submission. There's no fooling around with this kid, he's going to the ground. He is 0-2 in the UFC, losing to Jorge Gurgel and Dustin Hazelett, both my unanimous decision. Diego has an extensive ju-jitsu resume, including a Nova Uniao Black Belt in ju-jitsu. He also holds various championships in Brazil and the U.S. To be noted, Diego did fight Hazelett on a week's notice and was still able to take Hazelett, also a seasoned grappler, to a decision. Look for Saraiva to go to his strength in this fight, his vast skillset in ju-jitsu.

Jeremy Stephens is coming in with a 9-2 record, his most recent battle being with Nick Walker at MCC 9 - Heatwave. His most notable bout was against Din Thomas at UFC 71 - Liddell vs. Jackson. A classic striker, he sports 7 of his 9 wins via (T)KO. According to his profile at UFC.com, he trains in ju-jitsu and Muay Thai, but is mostly a heavy hand hitter.

My gut tells me to pick Saraiva. The guy has some quick feet, very good leg kicks as most Brazilian ju-jitsu fighters are trained to do. He also has some impressive high kicks in previous smaller organizations fights that he has landed. His main strength is taking guys down when he's being rushed. I think Stephens is going to come out trying to knock him out quick, and I think we'll see Saraiva submit him, possibly early.

Prediction: Diego Saraiva, 2nd round submission.

Christian Wellisch vs. Scott Junk

Wellisch is currently 1-1 in the UFC and 7-3 overall in his MMA career. Many fans will probably recall his brutal knockout loss to Cheick Kongo at UFC 62. He currently trains out of the American Kickboxing Academy in San Jose, California with notable fighters Paul Buentello, Josh Thomson, Mike Swick, Josh Koscheck, Jon Fitch, and Bobby Southworth. Wellisch is really known for using his size to punish opponents. He also has some ju-jitsu skills as he claims on the UFC website profile that he has won a Gracie Ju-jitsu Open and US ju-jitsu Open. He also has some wrestling experience from college. Overall, a decent ju-jitsu/wrester/striker.

Scott Junk is currently 6-1 in his MMA career, debuting in the UFC at this event. He's on a six fight win streak, recently winning via corner stoppage against Jimmy Ambriz at MFC 12 - High Stakes. Junk's primary skillset involves some decent boxing along with using his large size as leverage for his power. He has knockout power, and according to Scott Junk's official website, he's trained in Gracie Ju-jitsu and Shoot fighting. Junk's size is a question, as he normally comes in weighing the maximum of 265 lbs.

This is somewhat an interesting test for Wellisch. He's coming off a huge layoff, and he's been overwhelmed by bigger opponents in the past, but he has also beaten bigger opponents in the past. I'm going to have to definitely go with Wellisch in this fight. I've seen Junk fight in K-1, and it was not pretty. He has some very horrible decision making skills in those fights, one being that he tried to kick someone when he had 265 lbs. behind it. Yeah, if it lands, it hurts, but usually you sacrifice quickness when you weigh that much. Junk missed and got knocked out with a direct shot to the temple. I doubt that the ju-jitsu will come into play here, and Wellisch is training with some pretty damn good wrestlers and strikers.

Prediction: Christian Wellisch, 1st round TKO

Rich Clementi vs. Anthony Johnson

Anthony Johnson is a fairly new fighter to the MMA scene. He has a fresh 4-0 record, knocking out Chad Reiner at UFC Fight Night 10 via knockout at only :13 seconds into the first round. Since many people really don't know much about Anthony Johnson, here's a little education. In an interview with OnTheMat.com, Johnson revealed that he currently trains with 8th degree black belt legend, Rigan Machado. He also trains in Muay Thai boxing as well as his base MMA skills in classic boxing. In his fight with Chad Reiner, Johnson showed some great striking ability in fending off a rush from Reiner and catching him during his flurry. Other than that, we can't gauge Johnson's skills in the UFC since his only fight was over in a flash. It is assumed that he has some type of decent ground game with Machado's training. He also seemed to be very powerful, which adds to both his ground and standup games.

Rich Clementi is a veteran MMA fighter with a 25-12-1 record. He was featured on the Ultimate Fighter 4, in which he was knocked out by Shonie Carter in one of the preliminary bouts. In his illustrious career, Clementi has never really defeated any notable fighters to date. He's had runs against Marcus Aurelio, Din Thomas, Caol Uno, and Pete Spratt, losing all of those fights. Clementi is currently 2-2 in the UFC and is looking to pick up another win. His last fight was against Kyle Gibbons at IFO: Wiuff vs. Salmon in which he won via submission in the 1st round. Clementi is mainly a strong striker with a decent wrestling background. I haven't been too impressive with Clementi's wrestling. He has, however, never been knocked out, and he has managed to take a good number of his losses to decisions. But can he deal with Johnson's power? That's the big question, and also, if Clementi takes this fight to the ground, will Johnson have a ju-jitsu game to enable him to be dangerous on the ground? I think so. Rigan Machado is hailed as an unbelievable instructor, and Johnson's power supplementing that ground game will only add to the versatility of his MMA skills. On an added note, Clementi is normally a 155 lb. fighter. This may be a bit more than he can chew at 170.

Prediction: Anthony Johnson, 1st round TKO.

Sources include Wikipedia.org, Sherdog.com Fight Finder, MMAJunkie.com for news bits, all other sources are referenced in article.





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