UFC 83: Serra vs. St. Pierre Preview & Predictions

by LR 4/17/2008 3:18:00 PM

The UFC makes its debut in Canada with an already sold out event in Montreal at the Bell Centre on Saturday night. The featured bout matches up Matt “The Terror” Serra against Georges “Rush” St. Pierre in a highly anticipated rematch of their UFC 69 battle that saw Matt Serra upset St. Pierre. Rich Franklin will make his return to the Octagon after his second loss to UFC Middleweight champion Anderson Silva. He'll take on a venerable Travis Lutter who will test Franklin's submission defense. Other bouts scheduled include Canadian Kalib Starnes vs. Nate “The Rock” Quarry, Mac Danzig vs. Mark Bocek, Michael Bisping vs. Charles McCarthy, and Jason MacDonald vs. Joe “El Dirte” Doerkson, along with a slew of undercard bouts that are sure to entertain us. Let's take a look at the card.

Main Event: Georges “Rush” St. Pierre vs. Matt “The Terror” Serra
UFC Welterweight title bout

Oddly enough, Georges St. Pierre comes into this bout as a huge favorite while Serra once again remains the heavy underdog. St. Pierre's destruction of Matt Hughes at UFC 79 on short notice was stunning in the capacity of being unbelievably dominating. The fact that he can outwrestle any fighter in the weight class is a testament to his training regiment and work ethic. Wrestlers with plenty of credentials to back up their “smack” continue to fall to St. Pierre's superior skills. Pierre also has dynamic striking that is unparalleled in the division, but he has shown weakness in the standup at times, namely against his opponent, Matt Serra.

Serra's abilities are underrated by many fans of the sport. He has very good jiu-jitsu skills on the ground, and his strength can become a huge factor as the fight progresses. He's very tough to defeat by a finish, and he's never been submitted in MMA competition. I firmly believe it'll be a good test for St. Pierre if it becomes a chess match on the ground. The x-factor is Serra's heavy hands. He has some decent striking skills for a smaller welterweight, and with power behind them, we've seen what they can do against St. Pierre.

Bottom line: St. Pierre should win this fight within the first three rounds. He has great power, athleticism, dynamic striking, range, reach, and is coming off a stunning performance against Matt Hughes. Serra definitely has a shot on his feet, but I don't believe he can submit St. Pierre on the floor. Serra has great submission defense, so I'd stray away from St. Pierre defeating him there, but I do believe he can work some wrestling skills to open up the striking.

Leland's Prediction: Georges St. Pierre via TKO, Round 3

Rich “Ace” Franklin vs. Travis Lutter

Rich Franklin is looking to get back on the track back to another title shot. How many title shots can one have after being destroyed the previous two tries? We don't know, but Franklin is still a formidable opponent for anyone trying to make a run at Anderson Silva. He has good power, decent striking, big blow ground and pound, and he's not half bad on the ground either. He's a well-rounded fighter, but he isn't great in any one thing.

Lutter, on the other hand, is a great jiu-jitsu fighter on the ground, but he lacks the powerful hands that Franklin possesses. The biggest problem for Lutter is getting through Franklin's submission defense, a defense that has helped Franklin remain unbeaten by a submission throughout his 25 fight career.

Franklin should take this one. He has fantastic submission defense, and has the hands to defeat Lutter on his feet or on the ground. Franklin has taken on great grapplers in the past, and has always came through with his crushing ground and pound.

Leland's Prediction: Rich Franklin via TKO, Round 2

Michael Bisping vs. Charles “Chainsaw” McCarthy

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UFC Fight Night 11 Preview: Complete Analysis and Predictions

by LR 9/17/2007 7:50:00 PM

The UFC storms into the Palms in Las Vegas fresh off a spectacular UFC 75 event that featured the unification of the Light Heavyweight Championship, a destruction of one of the best PRIDE Heavyweight strikers in the MMA world, and a few surprises from some up and coming fighters such as Houston Alexander and Marcus Davis. What can we expect from the UFC for this Fight Night card on Wednesday night? From the looks of it, we can definitely look forward to such matchups as Kenny Florian vs. Din Thomas and Terry Martin vs. Chris Leben. Also, we will have a number of appearances from The Ultimate Fighter 5 contestants Gray Maynard and Cole Miller as well as the TUF 5 Winner, Nate Diaz. The UFC has put some solid fights on a card that is the precursor to The Ultimate Fighter 6 Season and UFC 76 on Saturday. Let’s take an in-depth look at the UFN 11 fight card.

The Breakdown: Kenny Florian (6-3) vs. Din Thomas (20-6)

Kenny Florian comes into this bout with a 6-3 record, recently coming off an impressive win over Alvin Robinson at UFC 73. In my initial analysis of that particular fight, I chose Alvin Robinson to win based on his aggressive style and power. I was wrong. One of my only bad picks of the year, Florian showed a definite improvement by neutralizing Robinson’s aggressive style.

Florian is primarily a Brazilian ju-jitsu specialist with a black belt in ju-jitsu from Roberto Maia of Gracie Barra ju-jitsu in Boston. Florian is best known for his contestant role on The Ultimate Fighter Season 1 shows. He was able to make it to the final to face Diego Sanchez, but was stopped in the first round due to strikes. After the Finale, Florian rattled off three consecutive wins over Alex Karalexis, Kit Cope, and Sam Stout. Although the competition of those fighters wasn’t high quality, Florian was coming up as a full-time MMA fighter now. His skills were tested and he was able to easily use his ground game to really excel against Stout and Cope. Florian earned a shot at the vacant Lightweight UFC Championship title against Sean Sherk and was overcome with Sherk’s ground and pound style. He has recently had two consecutive wins, and is now back in the position to earn another title shot if he can secure a win at UFN 11.

Din Thomas is also a very strong ground fighter, having a black belt in ju-jitsu under Ricardo Liborio. Din trains out of American Top Team, responsible for some of the most notable names in MMA such as Gesias Calvancanti, Jeff Monson, Denis Kang, Marcus Aurelio, Wilson Gouveia, and more. Din is also well known for his stint on The Ultimate Fighter 4 in which he lost to Chris Lytle in their semifinal bout by unanimous decision.

Din comes into this bout with an impressive 20-6 record. He has notable wins over Jens Pulver, Matt Serra, and his most recent, Clay Guida and Jeremy Stephens. Some may remember the Matt Serra fight as being a ridiculous controversy that resulted in one judge scoring the bout in the wrong columns on his scoresheet, declaring Serra the winner at the event. Later, Din was declared the winner once the mistake was found. He has had some discouraging losses in his career prior to The Ultimate Fighter series, such as losses to Amar Suloev, Caol Uno, and BJ Penn at UFC 32. Since the show, he has looked fairly impressive in the cage, and is really in the same boat as Florian. UFC contracts definitely help the competitiveness of both guys since it will allow them to focus more on their MMA skillset rather than other jobs to make ends meet. This has been a point that many MMA fans have brought up when bringing up the skillsets of fighters recently coming off the reality series.

Styles Breakdown

Din Thomas is out of American Top Team, so expect some very good skills in the Octagon. He has plenty of great fighters down there to really practice with as far as ju-jitsu goes. He’s very capable of throwing huge punches to stop the takedown attempts from Florian, just like against Matt Serra. He has a vicious ground and pound, and also likes to fake the punches to take the back when an opponent turns to dodge or grab the arms. He’s also very strong and can easily lift his opponent and slam him to the ground. His ground game is also something Florian will also have to be aware of. Again, his strength plays into this since he can power out of holds and maintain a grip and submit you with his strength.

Florian has excellent ju-jitsu and is definitely going to be resorting to it in this battle. Florian loves to allow his opponent to push him, but enabling him to use throws and clinches to throw his opponent to the ground. His standup game is rather limited as he didn’t show much of it in the Alvin Robinson fight. Florian uses leg kicks to weaken his opponents and go for the takedowns. That’s really going to be the basis of his standup in this bout. Swinging with Din Thomas is not in his best interest. His best knockout power comes from his ground and pound using his elbows. He landed a good amount of elbows against Alvin Robinson and opened a huge cut on Alex Karalexis’s head with those same elbows to end that bout. If he can get Din Thomas down, he will still be fighting to avoid submission attempts from Din. Look for his elbows to come into play on the ground if it gets there.

Sizing it Up

This is a very tough one to call. Florian and Thomas stack up well with each other in the ju-jitsu arena, but their main difference is the standup game. Even when Florian fought Alvin Robinson, he did get hurt in the standup and took the fight to the ground where Robinson could not excel. That won’t be the case in this fight. Din could hurt Florian, and resorting to the ground game may also just make Florian tired or he could potentially get submitted. I think Din has a more all-around game that Florian, but I believe Florian’s ju-jitsu is much better than Din’s ground skills. If I had to choose, I’d pick Thomas via 1^st or 2^nd round KO/TKO. This fight could easily go to either guy, or a decision, but I see Din using his powerful strength and standup to win it.

The Breakdown: Chris Leben (16-4) vs. Terry Martin (16-2)

This is quite possibly a candidate for knockout of the night. Both fighters are known for throwing huge leather. Leben is coming off some horribly lackluster performances and Terry Martin is coming off some spectacular knockout wins, a recent run in with the Chicago Police Department, and a whole lot of smack talk at Patrick Cote. This should be a great striker’s matchup

Chris “The Crippler” Leben is best known for his knockout style of fighting. He was featured on the first season of the Ultimate Fighter as an outspoken cast member who drank himself retarded. Leben’s antics led to a bout with Josh Koscheck, and he was beaten via unanimous decision. Leben was very upset about the decision and fuming over Koscheck’s tactics of holding him down and not really pushing the fight. He felt Koscheck was trying to win safely. Leben returned to the competition after Nate Quarry was injured during the competition. This time around, Leben lost to Kenny Florian due to a large cut that opened up on Leben’s eye area. At the finale, Leben ended up fighting Jason Thacker, the teammate who had his bed pissed all over by Leben. Leben stopped him in the first round due to strikes and Leben’s career continued.

Leben has some notable wins over Mike Swick, Patrick Cote, and Jorge Santiago. Leben has been the issue of controversy lately. He pulled out in a highly anticipated rematch with Mike Swick, never really giving any reason for the pullout. Swick was then pitted against Goulet, but pulled out due to injury. It is perceived around the community that Leben dodged Swick due to Swick’s recent success in the UFC.

Terry Martin comes into this bout with a 16-2 record, sporting 10 knockouts and 5 submissions in his career. His first two stints in the UFC ended badly for the brawler from Chicago, IL. He lost to James Irvin via a spectacular flying knee and to Jason Lambert via strikes in the second round. He took a fight at WEC 24 against Keith Berry and started a four win streak beating Berry, Jason Guida, Jorge Rivera, and Ivan Salaverry. Although not a star studded cast of fights, Ivan Salaverry was no slouch in his most recent fight.

Martin has shown to have some of the heavier hands in the Middleweight division. He has been susceptible to the punches as well, but with only two losses in his career, he’s definitely making waves in the UFC. He also has some underrated ground skills and his aggressive style can force opponents to the ground allowing him to pounce on them at will.

Styles Breakdown

Having seen both of Terry Martin and Chris Leben’s previous bouts, I can safely say that this is a battle of similar styles. Both Leben and Martin are straight bangers who will be looking to come out and knock the other one out. Leben, however, has had some less than great performances in his previous two fights. The fight that stands out the most in my mind is the Kalib Starnes fight. Leben was very hesitant and allowed Kalib to really push the pace early and land some decent shots. Leben missed most of his strikes for much of the match, and even when Starnes was visibly gassed, Leben didn’t push the pace and try to end the fight in the third to change the outcome. His standup was severely lacking during that fight.

Terry Martin has had some spectacular fights as of late. His aggression has been one of his top attributes that has really overcome most of his opponents as of late. Ivan Salaverry was revered as a pretty good grappler and boxer. Martin basically ran over Salaverry and straight knocked him out. Jorge Rivera was knocked out in :14 seconds flat. Obviously, Terry Martin’s standup game is very dangerous. What happens when you pit a lackluster standup guy who has shown potential previously that he can be at a level that is competitive and he’s hungry to show the fans his real skillset against a brawler with huge knockout power like Terry Martin? Fireworks.

Sizing it Up

To me, this is a battle of what’s happened lately. Martin is coming off some spectacular knockout wins and has shown some aggressive poundings, great takedown and ground n’ pound tactics, and is overall, a pitbull in the Octagon. Leben has lately been rather sluggish, stood tentative in the Octagon, and hasn’t aggressively pushed the pace. I’m looking to see Martin run over Leben and possibly either ground and pound him or catch Leben early.

Rest of the Card

Nate Diaz (6-2) vs. Junior Assuncao (5-2)

A tough bout to call, Nate Diaz, the brother of Nick “Tough as damn nails” Diaz as I like to call him, will be looking to win his second bout in the UFC after beating Manny Gamburyan at the TUF 5 Finale via referee stoppage due to Manny’s dislocated shoulder. Nate will be coming into this fight most likely in much better condition, and most likely will have better standup as both his brother and himself have been training with Luisito Espinosa, former WBA and WBC Boxing Champion. Junior is well known brother of Rafael Assuncao, a 11-1 MMA fighter with a notable win of Joe Lauzon and a distance fight with Jeff Curran losing via decision. He has a brown belt in ju-jitsu that trumps Diaz’s purple belt at the moment. Although Junior has the edge in the ju-jitsu, Nate’s size and reach will be tough for Assuncao to counter. Look for a late submission by Diaz, 2^nd or 3^rd round.

Pete Sell (7-3) vs. Nate Quarry (8-2)

The battle of two aggressive strikers with weak chins. Quarry was knocked out by Rich Franklin at UFC 56, and then taking a long break from MMA. Quarry does have a win over Pete Sell by TKO :42 seconds into the first round. He also defeated Shone Carter at UFC 53 with some ferocious striking. Sell is a ju-jitsu specialist with some boxing and muay thai training. He holds a brown belt under Matt Serra, and has trained in striking with Ray Longo. Sell’s big upset win over Phil Baroni catapulted him for a short period, but then he was beaten by Nate Quarry in his next fight. Sell is coming off a loss to Thales Leites, but he has been fighting actively in the UFC. Quarry has had a two year layoff, and he strictly is a freestyle fighter whereas Sell has some skill on the ground and knockout power. I am going to go against the community assumption here and pick Pete Sell, first round surprise.

Thiago Alves (11-3) vs. Kuniyoshi Hironaka (11-3)

A very interesting matchup between Alves and Hironaka. Many people don’t know who Hironaka is, and that’s what makes this fight somewhat unpredictable. Hironaka is most notable for losing to Jon Fitch at UFC 64 by unanimous decision. He has notable wins over “Charuto” Verissimo and Nick Diaz, but to be honest, I’ve never been impressed with Verissimo’s MMA skills and he won by split decision over Diaz. Mainly a ju-jitsu fighter, he has a lot of fights that have gone to decision and isn’t known for being a finisher. Alves, on the other hand, is known as a finisher. In fact, he’s finished 3 out of his last 5 opponents by TKO/KO. He does have losses to Jon Fitch and Spencer Fisher over the last two years. He also trains out of American Top Team, which really makes me want to go with Alves and he’s coming off a suspension for using diuretic for weight loss purposes. I think he’s going to be tenacious coming back into the Octagon. Alves by 2^nd round TKO/KO, but I don’t doubt this fight going to a decision.

Leonard Garcia (10-2) vs. Cole Miller (12-2)

To me, this is a clear cut win by Garcia. He went to decision with the always aggressive Roger Huerta in his first UFC fight, and dominated Alan Berube in the TUF 5 Finale. Garcia, I believe, trains out of Greg Jackson’s camp as well. Cole Miller has some fairly unimpressive fights in his 12-2 career, but he did take Shooto fighter Takeshi Inoue to decision. Not bad at all. Miller also did fairly well against Lightweight Joe Lauzon in the TUF 5 series, but eventually lost due to a controversial blow to the back of the head that he didn’t really recover from. Garcia is a fairly good submission fighter and I think he’ll come out aggressive and push the fight to the ground. Garcia by 2^nd or 3^rd round submission.

Dustin Hazelett (9-3) vs. Jonathan Goulet (19-8)

Back in 04’ and 05’, Goulet was impressive with wins over Jay Hieron, John Alessio, Tony Fryklund, and Shonie Carter. As of late, however, he hasn’t been as great as he once was. After his loss to Josh Koscheck, he fought in some smaller organizations, racking up a 3-1-1 record since the Koscheck bout. Hazelett is on a 2 fight win streak, and loss to the very good Tony DeSouza at UFC: Final Chapter in October 2006. He’s a straight submission fighter, and Goulet is a little bit of both. It’s a tough call, and Hazelett’s latest performances make me want to pick him, but I think Goulet’s experience is going to shine in this bout. I’m going with Goulet by decision.

Luke Cummo (5-4) vs. Edilberto de Oliveria (8-1-1)

Luke Cummo is a product of Team Serra and specifically a ju-jitsu and Muay Thai fighter. He’s been ran through the gauntlet in his career with matches against Joe Stevenson, Josh Koscheck, and Jonathan Goulet, losing all by decision. Luke’s ground skills and fairly decent MMA game enabled him to last against those top level fighters. I believe that this fight will be a definite builder for him. Oliveria comes into this bout with one loss to Paul Taylor at UFC 70. Taylor is the man who nearly KO’d Marcus Davis at UFC 75. Oliveria is out of Brazil and has a majority of is fights in Minotauro Fights MMA organization in Brazil. His one stint in the UFC was a loss and I think this will continue. Luke Cummo via decision.

Gray Maynard (2-0) vs. Joe Veres (4-1)

Maynard is an all-American wrestler who placed 11^th at the NCAA Wrestling Championships in 2003. He’s best known for his Ultimate Fighter 5 appearance and subsequent climb to the semifinals, only to lose to Nate Diaz. He has great wrestling, takedowns and great ground and pound. He is also training with Xtreme Couture, which may solidify some decent standup and clinch tactics. Veres is relatively unknown. According to MMAJunkie’s interview on July 24^th, Veres is a 2x Ohio HS Division I State Qualifier, placed in the tournament, captain of the Ashland University wrestling squad, 3x NCAA Division II All-American, 4x qualifier, and he’s trained with Hammerhouse. He’s going to have some fairly good wrestling skills, but will Maynard’s wrestling trump Veres wrestling. I think so. And with the training from Xtreme Couture, look for Maynard to ground and pound win this one in the second round.

Sources include Wikipedia.org, Sherdog.com Fight Finder. Other sources are cited in the text of this preview.

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Tags: ufn 11, din thomas, kenny florian, chris leben, terry martin, nate diaz, junior assuncao, pete sell, nate quarry, thiago alves, kuniyoshi hironaka, cole miller, leonard garcia, dustin hazelett, jonathan goulet, luke cummo, edilberto de oliveria, gray maynard, joe veres

UFC 83: Serra vs. St. Pierre Preview & Predictions

UFC Fight Night 11 Preview: Complete Analysis and Predictions

The Breakdown: Kenny Florian (6-3) vs. Din Thomas (20-6)

Sizing it Up

Styles Breakdown

Rest of the Card

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