Marcus Aurelio shows what a quick transition game can do...

by LR 4/4/2008 2:18:00 PM

Marcus Aurelio vs Ryan Roberts
by Princenino

Props to CagePotato.com

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Marcus Aurelio | Ryan Roberts | UFC Fight Night 13



UFN 13 Preview and Predictions: Upsets anyone?

by LR 4/1/2008 9:49:00 AM

Get ready, fans! This could very well be one of the most exciting cards put together by the UFC in quite some time. UFC Fight Night 13 will take place on Wednesday night from Broomfield Event Center in Broomfield, Colorado, and it will feature a highly anticipated matchup between Kenny Florian and Joe Lauzon. Thiago Alves will also make a step up in competition against Karo Pariysan, and the event will feature well known names such as Matt Hamill, Houston Alexander, Gray Maynard, Frankie Edgar, Din Thomas, Clay Guida, and recent TUF contestants George Sotiropoulous, Roman Mitichyan, Tommy Speer. This could very well be the “Stacked” event we've all been waiting for. Props to Fightlinker for pushing the idea of making this event a 3 hour live televised card. The UFC won't acknowledge it, but I will. Great job, FL.

Before we get to my picks and Joe's predictions, let me just say.. I'm crazy for picking the fights I did, but I felt that there were some solid upset picks in the bunch.

Main Event: Joe Lauzon vs. Kenny Florian

This is a battle that I've been waiting for since it was announced. Kenny Florian's last seven battles have featured the former TUF contestant against some formidable opponents as he progressed up through the ranks. The climax was his loss to Sean Sherk at UFC 64, but he honorably took the fight to decision against a full load in Sherk. After the loss, he defeated Dokonjonosuke Mishima, a tough and explosive Alvin Robinson, and was putting the elbows on Din Thomas before he suffered a blown knee. Riding a three-win streak, Florian will be looking to stop the up-and-coming Joe Lauzon, and potentially win himself a title shot against BJ Penn.

Lauzon has been on a tear recently. He's won his last six fights in finishing fashion with a huge knockout win over former UFC lightweight champion Jens Pulver. The only real problem that Lauzon has had is that the level of competition he has faced has been subpar since Pulver. Melendez wasn't suited well against Lauzon's grappling, and Reinhardt's record was padded with horribly lopsided competition. Lauzon has the striking power in his hands and some excellent boxing skills, but Florian can counter his grappling and has some decent boxing himself. Florian is also very well versed in using his elbows in the ground and pound, and he's as tough as they come. This should be one exciting battle.

Without letting my biased get in the way too much, I'm admittedly a big Joe Lauzon fan. IT geek turned MMA fighter, who doesn't love it? On a purely analytical basis, Lauzon is great in most areas of mixed martial arts. He has great standup, good ground and pound, and can be controlling on the ground. Florian also has similar skills, and I don't believe Lauzon will be able to completely control him. The x-factor here is Lauzon's training at BJ Penn's facility in Hilo, Hawaii. Could it potentially have improved significantly enough to nullify the ground game? I think Lauzon has some ways to end this fight in which Florian may not be able to unless he can catch Lauzon in a submission.

Leland's Prediction: Joe Lauzon via submission, Round 3

This is an extremely close match-up between two above-average fighters. Florian has the better stand-up, but Lauzon has the better wrestling. Lauzon isn’t great at any one thing, but he is good at everything. Lauzon has decent striking, some decent power, good wrestling, and some ferocious ground-and-pound. Florian has good Muay Thai, and is a black belt in Brazilian Jiu-JJitsu. I think Joe will stand with Kenny for a while until he sees an opening to take a shot. From there he will look to work his ground-and-pound, but he will need to avoid Florian’s submissions. I think Joe’s training with BJ Penn will help him on the ground en route to a unanimous decision.

Joe's Prediction: Joe Lauzon via unanimous decision

Karo Parisyan vs. Thiago Alves

Karo has a bit of a task ahead of him in this one. Parisyan has been known recently for winning some weak decisions that were fairly uneventful. Parisyan has some big problems in this fight though, and it's evident if we look at his track record. Parisyan hasn't faced huge power in his last few fights, in fact, his last nine fights haven't featured overwhelming striking. Lytle and Serra could have been seen as potential forces in the standup game, but Serra is mainly a big puncher who hopes for the lucky blow while Lytle was winning his way to decisions back when Parisyan took him on. This will definitely test Parisyan's abilities to avoid the big shots.

Alves has unbelievable Muay Thai strikes, devastating leg kicks, and great striking even when he's backpedaling from danger. I'm going to pick Alves in the upset because of his destructive striking. He finishes fights in crushing fashion, and if Karo allows the fight to go into the later rounds, he has much less of a chance of defeating Parisyan.

Leland's Prediction: Thiago Alves via TKO/KO, Round 2

Alves has done something that is nearly impossible to do: he stopped Christ Lytle in his last fight. However, I don’t think he’s ready for “The Heat.” Karo is extremely durable and brings a relentless attack throughout the fight. In fact, he has only been stopped twice in his career, both by former lightweight champion Sean Sherk. Alves doesn’t have the wrestling to control Karo, and Karo will use his wild stand-up to close the distance and unleash his unique judo game. Fortunately for Karo, I think this is a fight he can actually finish. Expect a submission late in the fight, most likely by kimura.

Joe's Prediction: Karo Parisyan via submission, Round 3

Tim Boestch vs. Matt Hamill

More...


UFC 78: Validation Preview and Predictions

by LR 11/15/2007 5:06:00 AM

Bisping being taken down... NBC SportsUFC 78: Validation will roll into the Prudential Arena in Newark, New Jersey on Saturday night. The card features a main event between two TUF winners, Rashad Evans and Michael Bisping. In a light heavyweight matchup, Houston Alexander will be looking to continue his domination of the division by taking on a heavy handed Thiago Silva. Spencer Fisher also looks to keep a good thing going in an explosive battle with Frankie Edgar. The card also features a number of good undercard matchups that should either excite the crowd or bore the fans to death, we'll see who shows up to win. Let's take an in-depth look into what many consider the UFC's weakest card to date, but take a closer look and you may find some gems.

Rashad Evans vs. Michael “The Count” Bisping

Arguably, both of these fighters could definitely cut down to Middleweight and make the division worth a damn, but instead we will see both fighters try to make a run at moving themselves up toward the upper heap in the Light Heavyweight division. Rashad comes into the bout sporting a 10-0-1 record, but has yet to fight any of the top competition. His last bout against Tito Ortiz caused a small controversy due to Ortiz grabbing the fence causing the score for the round to be a draw. Ortiz won the first round 10-9 and lost the last round 9-10 to Evans. It caused the fight to end in a draw and a promise of a rematch. It's rumored that the winner of this matchup will fight Ortiz.

Bisping is also coming off a controversial fight that is considered one of the worst decisions by a judging crew in MMA this year. Many fans believe Matt Hamill won their matchup at UFC 75. Bisping also comes into this matchup with an undefeated record of 14-0, but like Evans, hasn't fought top competition.

This battle will be a matchup of conflicting styles to an extent. Bisping definitely would rather stand and Rashad seems to like to work the standup enough to set up his wrestling abilities. Bisping showed some good boxing technique against Hamill and seems to have improved his standup significantly, but he showed hesitation in running through Hamill because he was a wrestler. We could see the same thing from Bisping in this battle unless he somehow works on being aggressive against a wrestler. Obviously, he wasn't comfortable in his abilities enough to get into the zone of a wrestler in his last bout, but Hamill didn't try to do much when taking down Bisping. Bisping also had zero takedown defense against Hamill. It should definitely be a gauge for Bisping to learn from. Evans has some decent standup with a combination of kicks and punching. His defense is okay, but his wrestling ability will be the skill that could propel him to win this fight.

My pick for this fight will be Rashad Evans based on the pure fact that Bisping's sprawl was non-existent in his last bout. I believe Evans will shoot his hips and put Bisping to the floor pretty quickly, and I don't think Bisping has the massive power to knockout Evans very quickly. Bisping has knocked fighters out, but in the UFC, he remains cautious. He doesn't want to overextend his stride and get caught or get taken down quickly. Rashad doesn't really have finishing power, so I'll take him by decision

Pick: Rashad Evans by Unanimous Decision.

Houston Alexander vs. Thiago Silva Alexander handling Sakara... NBC Sports

Houston is somewhat of a sensation in the UFC currently. He came in to fight Keith Jardine as a late replacement likely to lose to Jardine and ended up spectacularly knocking him out instantly. His raw power is uncanny in providing him knockouts. His last bout against Alessio Sakara proved to be a quick fight and wasn't entirely a test to Alexander's abilities. Alessio came out before the battle stating he was going to try to fight with Houston's strength because he felt he had a better boxing game. Bad idea playing into Houston's strength. Will Thiago have a better gameplan?

Silva, if you hadn't noticed, is a Chute Box fighter, hence the last name. Like many of the Chute Box fighters, he possesses some outstanding Muay Thai skills and a good ju-jitsu base on the ground. Silva is the type of opponent the UFC looks to be setting up for Houston to punch out. Although Silva has some great standup, Houston's power could be a potential problem for Silva. Interestingly enough, many people said that about Tomasz Drwal. I found it odd how people picked Drwal who seemed to have horrible standup, but a ton of power. Drwal's looping punches were evident in many of the fights leading up to the bout and it almost seemed as if he was just swinging for the fence with no regard as to how he would defend the counter. Silva took advantage. Houston seems to have a better gameplan for strikers though. If he can't catch you standing, he will catch you in the clinch. Silva has had some impressive battles, but I believe Alexander's strength will be no match. The X factor is Alexander's cardio. Will he be able to continue battle if it hits the second round?

Pick: Houston Alexander via first round (T)KO.

Frank “The Answer” Edgar vs. Spencer “The King” Fisher

A battle of a couple of bangers, this fight looks to have the makings of a great back and forth battle. Fisher has experience on his side sporting a veteran record of 20-3, Edgar is fairly new with a 7-0 record. I'll make this a brief breakdown since I'm rather interested in seeing how this fight will pan out because it's a fairly tough battle to determine. Both fighters are very well-rounded, tough as nails, and have had some very good success. Edgar took out Bocek recently at UFC 73 and a very tough Tyson Griffin at UFC 67. Fisher is coming off an exciting battle against Sam Stout at UFN 10.

This is going to come down to who can outstrike their opponent before they decide to hit the mat, if they do at all. Fisher is unbelievably tough to beat and has only been stopped once, the other two losses being by decision. Edgar seems to also be the type of fighter who has a tendency to go the distance much like Fisher has done recently. I believe Fisher's experience, toughness, and overall ability to recover should push him through on this one.

Pick: Spencer Fisher via Unanimous Decision.

Karo “The Heat” Parisyan vs. Ryo “Piranha” Chonan

Finally, Karo will fight again and try to make a claim that he deserves a damn title shot already. He comes into this fight at 17-5 with a long layover after his fight with Josh Burkman at UFC 71 in which he made Burkman miss haymakers nearly the entire fight. Pariysan is strictly a judo fighter who loves to put down the hip toss in his matches and dominate his opponent with ground work and fleet footedness. He isn’t overly powerful and has in fact won 7 out of his last 9 fights via decision. To be perfectly honest, I’m not a huge fan of Pariysan for the mere fact that I believe he will get overwhelmed at the top of the heap. He seems to have a great way of avoiding damage, but can’t deal out enough damage to stop an opponent, leaving open the possibility of being beaten in later rounds. Will he be able to stop the “Piranha” from defeating him? I believe he can.

Chonan is a veteran ex-PRIDE fighter with a background in judo. He is most famous for being completely dominated by Anderson Silva in their PRIDE Shockwave 2004 matchup, but somehow pulling off one of the most difficult submissions in the flying scissor heel hook. Quite an impressive fight. Chonan has problems with power as evident in his losses to Dan Henderson and Phil Baroni, and he’s susceptible to the better submission fighters as evident in his loss to Paulo Filho. He was beaten inside the first round by the Brazilian ju-jitsu expert. Although he’s taken some big losses to some strong opponents, Chonan is fairly well-rounded with decent striking skills and an overall excellent judo game. He’s a bit small at 185, but he will be bigger since he is dropping down to 170 for the UFC. Look for him to have a bit more power and size on Parisyan.

A tough matchup indeed. I believe Chonan has the judo skills to really stop Parisyan from moving in on him for big hip tosses and judo moves that could temporarily put Chonan in bad positions. Parisyan is still very well rounded and active in his fights early. Parisyan should be able to keep working Chonan tired and end the fight in a decision win. It’ll be interesting to see if Parisyan shows up with some more power since he’s been off for months and hopefully gaining strength and training during that time.

Pick: Karo Parisyan via Unanimous Decision.

Thiago “Pitbull” Alves vs. Chris “Lights Out” Lytle

Alves is an American Top Team prospect with power in his hands. He has 7 fights in the UFC, 5 wins, with his most notable victories over John Alessio, Tony DeSouza, and Kuniyoshi Hironaka. He has some hard striking that could overwhelm the veteran Chris Lytle. Lytle has been around for quite awhile. He’s a very good submission expert with a number of losses against some big name fighters, but he has been able to been nearly everyone that isn’t near the top of the heap. He’s lost to Matt Hughes and Matt Serra most recently, both by decision. He’s only been stopped once in his 14 losses, losing 13 by decision, making a statement for Lytle’s longevity in his fights.

Alves’s main weakness is his submission defense. In two of his losses, he suffered submissions to Spencer Fisher and Derrick Noble. Problem is, Alves’s power is a huge factor for Lytle, but Lytle seems to avoid the big punches and take the fight to the ground. This is going to be my small upset pick of the night, I’m going to go with Chris Lytle via submission.

Pick: Chris Lytle via submission, second round.

Other matchups
Marcus “Maximus” Aurelio (14-5) vs. Luke “Lil Hulk” Caudillo (13-8)

 

Aurelio is a very good submission fighter with the ability to avoid big punches and strikes, the kind of stuff that Caudillo will be trying to land as he has 9 wins by (T)KO. He’s susceptible to submissios with 6 losses by submission and this matchup should be no different. In true TJ Desantis speak, Aurelio should win by triangle CHOKE!


Pick: Marcus Aurelio via first round submission (triangle choke).


Joe Doerkson (39-10) vs. Ed “Short Fuse” Herman (13-5)

I like Doerkson in this fight specifically because he’s a submission fighter with a boatload more experience. Both fighters have fought each other before at SF 7 – Frightnight back in October of 2004. Doerkson squeaked out a triangle choke in the third round to win. I’m not a huge fan of Ed Herman, but he has some decent skill on the floor. I think Doerkson’s skills should still be crisp enough to take out Herman in a lengthy battle.

Pick: Joe Doerkson via second round submission.

Akihiro Gono (27-12-7) vs. Tamden “The Barn Cat” McCrory (8-0)

Great matchup between a natural welterweight and Gono who is dropping down from a middleweight to fight at 170. McCrory is a fairly tall fighter with some size. He’s undefeated with a win over Pete Spratt at UFN 10 nearly 5 months ago. He seems to be mainly a knockout fighter, but has been pulling out some very good chokes in his last two fights. His length and reach are definitely advantages and he has been known to have deceptive strength and devastating elbows and knees. This will be a fairly tough fight for Gono.

Let’s get one thing out of the way. Gono doesn’t suck. Many fans seem to jump on the PRIDE fighters suck bandwagon, but Gono has only lost recently to the big names. Shogun by strikes, Henderson by knockout, and Kang by decision were his last three losses. Gono is fairly hard to submit, he has some decent submission skills, and has power in his hands as well. I’m going to go with the safe bet on this one, Gono has the experience and toughness to outlast McCrory. Plus, give some love to the Japanese, come on!

Pick: Akihiro Gono via Unanimous Decision.

Joe Lauzon (15-3) vs. Jason Reinhardt (18-0)

If you actually think Reinhardt has a chance because he’s 18-0, you’re nuts. If Reinhardt wins, I’ll forever shut the hell up. Reinhardt is about 20 miles south of where I am in Decatur, IL. He’s fought mainly cans for most of his career, but has some power and ground skills. Fact is, this is a battle that Reinhardt will have a tough time winning. He hasn’t fought really any tough fighters, his opponents’ records combine for a very small win percentage, and Lauzon has established himself as a possible force in the division. His training with BJ Penn should definitely help immensely.

Pick: Joe Lauzon via first round submission.

Those are my predictions and previews to each of the matchups at UFC 78. It isn’t exactly the most spectacular card that the UFC has put on, but it definitely has some fights worth watching. Check it out on Saturday night on Pay-per-view at 10 PM EST.



UFC 74 Post-Fight Breakdown and Analysis: Part 2 of 2

by LR 8/28/2007 12:14:00 PM

The rest of the fights on the card with the exception of the Grove/Cote fight were all untelevised fights that were not shown on the Pay-Per-View portion. I have seen all of the fights and do have some good analysis and insight on each of those fights in our second part to our breakdown of the UFC 74 fight card.

Kendall Grove vs. Patrick Cote

Cote came out quick and pushed Kendall back with a quick combo to start the fight. Cote threw another combo and then clinched Kendall into the cage and tied him up. The strategy for Cote seemed to be similar to Randy Couture's strategy in that he closed the gap between himself and Gonzaga. In this first round, Cote clamped Grove to the fence and dirty boxed a few punches into Grove's midsection as he tried to close the gap so Grove could not use his size advantage or reach. Eventually, Herb Dean broke up the clinch and separated the fighters since Cote was not doing enough to keep the clinch going. Cote came out from the clinch assaulting Grove's legs with low leg kicks to mid kicks to Grove's midsection. A couple of quick exchanges in the middle with no landed punches and Grove finally rushes Cote back into the fence. Cote come back out from the fence into a Grove clinch in which Grove plows Cote into the fence behind him and begins an onslaught of knees. Before Grove could even get settle, Cote reversed Grove and gets his back into the fence. The reversal game is played against the fence as they go back and forth; Grove landing a few knees as he reverses Cote back into the fence again. After a few go's at each other, they break and separate into the middle of the Octagon. At this point, Grove begins to get confident in his standup and lands a good shot in midsequence of a good 1-2 combo followed by a high head kick that Cote blocks. Grove then lands a huge midsection kick that can be heard throughout the crowd. Cote seems unphased as Grove shoots for a takedown. Grove gets back to his feet as Cote backs up, a very weak takedown attempt by Grove. Grove and Cote battle in a clinch and as Grove throws a high knee, Cote lets go of the clinch and nails Grove with a quick right to the head. Grove drops like a pile of bricks as Cote jumps on top of Grove into full mount. After landing a few punches, Cote goes for the rear naked choke. Grove slips from his grip, but is still unable to shake Cote's mount. Cote lands 2 or 3 huge rights while on top of Grove as his left hand basically holds Grove's head in place for the beating. The fight ends as Grove is basically defenseless and obviously out of the fight.

The Breakdown

Cote did exactly what he needed to do in this fight. He completely eliminated Grove's height and reach advantage. It was a Randy Couture clinic. Cote was able to use the clinch and push Grove into the fence and work the fight with some dirty boxing. He didn't land anything incredible in the fence area, and had Grove kept the fight in the corner and taken down Cote, it would have been a different outcome. Cote was able to get one great punch from the clinch, which was obviously his gameplan from the beginning. A great gameplan and great execution from Cote.

Improvements

The most obvious was Grove's takedown skills. He tried one takedown late in the fight, and it was probably one of the weakest attempts I've seen all year. He shot for the legs as Cote walked backwards. Cote might as well have fallen down and gave Grove the takedown. He didn't sprawl and really had no defense against it. Grove didn't shoot through or follow through with the takedown though and allowed Grove to muscle him back up into a clinch that inevitable led to the big punch that started the downward spiral. He also didn't utilize his large size in the clinch enough. Take a lesson from Anderson Silva. Long legs equal big time knees. Grove used his knees to an extent, but Cote was able to keep reversing him back into the fence. The whole point of having those long legs is that you can still throw big knees even when in the clinch.

Renato Sobral vs. David Heath

Sobral just looked scary standing in the ring before the fight for this one. As they approached one another, neither tapped gloves. You could definitely sense a hatred for one another. The fight started out with some standup, a few punches, and then a left by Babalu into a takedown. Babalu relentlessly rained punches on Heath's midsection and head during the exchange. Babalu used various ju-jitsu techniques to open up Heath's guard and throw elbows into Heath's face. At one point, he landed 3-4 good elbows directly into Heath's forehead. Heath eventually is able to quickly get up and pounce on Babalu. Even when Heath is on top of Babalu, Babalu seems to still have control of the fight. He continues to land elbows and punches from his back while also attempting submission holds. Heath can't throw any punches as he is tied up defending against Babalu's submission attempts and being pelted with punches from the bottom. The round ended easily won by Babalu's domination of Heath on the ground.

In the second round, it was more of the same from the Brazilian. Babalu threw a very good left that landed on Heath's chin and then shot Heath's legs for the takedown. Heath was able to sprawl a bit and then push Babalu into the fence while in a clinch. Heath makes a huge mistake in dropping to his guard as Babalu rains elbows into Heath's forehead, opening up an unbelievable gash in his head that bled all over the mat. If you tuned into the PPV event, most people wondered where the huge blood stain came from.. it was this fight. Babalu is now punching his way through Heath's skull. For a good 2-3 minutes, Babalu continues punishing Heath from full guard with punches and elbows as Heath bleeds all over both Babalu and the mat. After a relentless pounding, Heath rolls Babalu off him finally. But the roll is no godsend for Heath. Babalu sinks in an Anaconda Choke that eventually finishes Heath.

This fight had a lot of controversy at the end due to Babalu's chokeout. He held onto the choke for about 2-3 seconds longer after Mazzagati tapped Babalu off Heath. Heath lost consciousness and Babalu finally let go and acted as if nothing had happened. Babalu was the unanimously booed by the crowd, but took his win and left the Octagon. In post-fight interviews, he admitted to holding onto it because Heath disrespected him before the fight. Word to the wise, Babalu's actions are a scar on the UFC. There was no real need to prove anything more than the already serious beatdown you laid on Heath. Come on, Babalu..

The Breakdown

There isn't much to breakdown here. Babalu was dominant on the ground, and Heath was just too slow to pickup the takedown attempts and had ZERO defense on the ground. Heath couldn't even grab onto Babalu to keep him close. It was a poor performance in ground defense by Heath and it showed with his blood all over the mat.

Improvements

Babalu's ground game looked very good. He used some of his ju-jitsu to open up Heath's guard and just rain elbows and punches all over Heath's face. Heath's major flaws were all over this fight. He had zero defensive strategy against a pure ground fighter. It was as if he came into the fight thinking he could just KO Babalu in the first exchange. Heath had no techniques to even pound Babalu when he got on top and he still took damage while he was on top of him. Heath's standup suffered as well. Babalu was able to land some stiff jabs in his transitions from standup to takedown, Heat couldn't hit the broad side of a barn. It was just overall a bad performance by David Heath.

Clay Guida vs. Marcus Aurelio

The fight everyone wanted to see, but couldn't because the UFC didn't include it on the PPV. What a shame. Coming out of the gate, both fighters had a feeling out period of about a minute and a half before Guida landed a good midsection kick. Guida continued to push the pace of this fight. He took a few good blows to the face from Aurelio as he tried to push him up against the fence. The fans at this point begin to chant "Guida" from the stands. Aurelio continues to back off trying to catch Guida with counter punches. 30 seconds later, Guida pushes Aurelio back into the fence and lands two good punches to Aurelio. The fight comes back to the middle, Aurelio lands a few quick jabs, but both fighters continue to pace around the Octagon. Punch after punch, Guida and Aurelio trade with each other in the middle of the Octagon. At around the 1:30 mark, Guida lands a huge left hand that drops Aurelio to the mat. Guida jumps on top of Aurelio trying to finish the fight. Aurelio ties up Guida very well, and Guida is not able to continue striking on the ground. Guida respects Aurelio's ground game and allows the standup. With 10 seconds left in the round, Guida lands two huge punches to Aurelio's guard, and Aurelio ties up Guida on the ground. Guida wasn't able to land the punches flush, but the power was enough to put Aurelio into defensive mode.

Second round, Guida comes out throwing huge haymakers as before. Aurelio slips to the ground, but Guida doesn't get baited into a ground battle with Aurelio. They continue to circle each other throwing punches, but nothing is very effective right now. Aurelio looks to be growing weary, and is very tentative. Aurelio goes for the takedown, but Guida powers him onto his back. Guida allows the standup again. A few more exchanges with a few leg kicks from Guida, some stiff jabs from Aurelio. These small jabs definitely aren't hindering Guida at all. Guida continues to press. Aurelio goes for the takedown and is able to grab a hold of Guida. Guida is now stuck in Aurelio's guard. Guida lands a good amount of hammer fists while in the clinch on the ground while Aurelio is trying to pull his shin to Guida's face. Guida lands three huge hammer fists to Aurelio's head. Aurelio continues to hold Guida, but has done nothing to progress any type of submission attempts. Aurelio looks gassed at this point as the round ends.

More of the same in the third round. Aurelio is tired, and Guida continues to come at him with huge haymakers, landing a few early. For a good portion of the round, Guida stalked Aurelio, threw a lot of punches, landed a couple kicks, and Aurelio really answered with nothing but jabs to the air. With a minute and a half left, Guida defended off a good takedown attempt from Aurelio. Guida still looks fresh and is moving like a cat in the Octagon. Aurelio just looks horribly flat and tired and the fight ends with Guida purely dominating Aurelio in the standup game and avoiding Aurelio's takedowns.

The Breakdown

Aurelio had a lackluster performance. His cardio lacked toward the end, and he wasn't shooting enough takedown attempts to really have any chance at stopping Guida with any ground tactics. Guida's cardio was again impressive. He pushed the pace the entire fight, and always threw a lot of combos when he had Aurelio back in the fence. Guida had very strong takedown defense which essentially won him this fight and kept the fight on the feet where he was most effective.

Improvements

Not much to say here. Aurelio needs to show up to the fight loose and in charge. He was very timid and very closed in his stance. He wasn't taking any chances with his standup game, and wasn't shooting for takedown at all. If you watch is fight against Gomi, he was able to utilize a takedown because Gomi was strictly standing to him. In this fight, it was a bit different in that Guida had a strong takedown defense. Aurelio needs to learn how to blow through that and still get the takedown. Guida, on the other hand, still had slow standup. He's still throwing big haymakers, much like a Koscheck. He has versed one-two combo much like Koscheck. If he can utilize some good straight jab combos, his standup could improve significantly. I think for the sake of this fight, his game was much changed though, so it may be premature to say that he needs to immensely improve that part of his game. Aurelio did force him to keep it a standup fight while fending off a possibly takedown attempt.

Frank Mir vs. Antoni Hardonk

Mir comes out looking in pretty damn good shape. I thought he looked better than he did when he fought Sylvia, and he proved it in this one. Hardonk came out the gate with a few leg kicks, and Mir came back with one of his own before stuffing punches in Hardonk's face. Hardonk defended the punches easily, but went down like a sack of potatoes to Mir's takedown. Hardonk immediately went for an omoplata, but Mir spins into half guard. Mir begins to lay some elbows into Hardonk's head, but then switches to grabbing Hardonk's arm. From half guard, Mir strongarms Hardonk's arm into a kimura attempt. Hardonk actually rolls Mir over escaping the hold for a slight second before Mir reverses the roll and rolls back on top of Hardonk. Mir reinitiates the kimura attempt. In the roll, Mir popped from half guard and now has complete side control. With even more leverage, Mir easily finished Hardonk.

There really is no explaining this fight. Mir had unbelievably superior ground tactics, and Hardonk had a well known kicking game, that's it. Mir took him down, and Hardonk could do nothing about it. Hardonk needs to get a ground game that can defend against the ju-jitsu that is rampant in this sport.

Thales Leites vs. Ryan Jensen

Jensen comes out with two big high kicks that land, but are easily defended by Leites. Jensen presses forward as Leites lands some small leg kicks. He continues to throw high leg kicks at Leites, but has yet to land flush without Leites defending it with his hand. Jensen is now stalking Leites around the Octagon, and has picked up his punches. He backs Leites into the fence and lands a good combo to Leites. Leites drops to the ground, grabs Jensen by the legs, and throws him to the ground. Jensen catches Leites in a guillotine choke, but Leites escape it fairly easily while also gaining side control. Jensen sees that he is in trouble, and the fight is brought back to the feet. Leites still remains in a choke position even on the feet. Jensen lands a good knee as they seperate. An exchange occurs with Jensen catching Leites with a good right, but then failing to defend the takedown. Leites is now in control on top of Jensen. Leites gains Jensen's back and goes for a rear naked choke, but Jensen is able to wiggle free and get back up from the ground clinch. A few more exchanges with nothing landing from either opponent, and then Leites shoots into Jensen's midsection. Jensen powers Leites to the ground with a sprawl, and gains the top position. Jensen begins a ground n' pound game that Leites is defending fairly easily. Jensen lands a few good elbows and punches, but must stop to get away from multiple Leites armbar attempts. Eventually, Leites catches Jensen's arm in one of the attempts and rolls to sink in the armbar.

Overall, very good fight by Jensen. He took it to the BJJ expert, and I wouldn't really suggest much change other than to keep working on escape attempts and possibly some ju-jitsu of his own to better understand ways of escaping the holds. Jensen's kicks were phenomenol, and it was impressive that he was accurate enough to land them. Jensen also had some decent standup, but he was wild when pounding down on Leites. This was his eventual demise. Leites, on the other hand, has zero standup game. He definitely needs to somehow obtain some standup skills or he won't be able to fend off striking opponents that have decent escapes.




MMA-Analyst's UFC 74 Pre-Fight Predictions

by Matt Kaplan 8/24/2007 11:11:00 AM

I did a preview/predictions post awhile back, and Matt has posted a preview/predictions post for his blog, so I'm going to combine the two and give everyone a general preview and our predictions of the UFC 74 card at Mandalay Bay in Las Vegas. This is shaping up to be a very good card matchup wise. Now, to be fair, I've said this in the past and the card ended up being a snoozer or disappointing all together. This card does have a lot of even matchups though, and I'm hoping we really get some distance out of the two top fights on the card. Let's take a good look at Matt's predictions:

UFC 74 Pre-Fight Jitters

Anyone else get that anxious feeling the day before a big event? The odds are that the only physical activity I'll be doing during the fights is getting up for some more White Castle, but I feel as if I'm fighting tomorrow.

Anyway, here's how I see tomorrow night's UFC 74 card. Please note that my picks are a combination of whom I think will win, as well as whom I want to win.

Randy Couture vs. Gabriel Gonzaga

I truly believe that Gonzaga has the right combination of size, power, grappling, submission skills, and striking to dethrone the older, smaller Randy Couture. Gonzaga's stand-up attack benefited greatly from his time with Wanderlei Silva, Shogun Rua, and the rest of the Chute Boxe guys a few years back, and we all saw how dangerous he could be from inside the guard. Wanderlei and Rua have each said, on separate occasions, that they believe Gonzaga has the tools to defeat Couture.

Nonetheless, my heart is with Randy tomorrow. I didn't think he could beat Liddell, and he did. I didn't think he could beat Belfort, and he did. I thought, for sure, that Sylvia would overwhelm the newly un-retired Randy. Wrong again. I believe that tomorrow night we'll see a Randy Couture that's better than the one who beat up on Tim Sylvia at UFC 68. No one devises and executes a game plan like Randy (well, maybe Fedor), whose game is constantly evolving and surprising millions.

Matt's Pick: Randy Couture
LR's Pick: Gabriel Gonzaga

Roger Huerta vs. Alberto Crane

I think Huerta has a lot to lose in this fight. If he wins, look for him to be in the forefront of the lightweight championship picture. He's young, the ladies seem to dig him, he's got a great story, and he speaks Spanish: Dana's all over that. In Crane, Huerta definitely faces his toughest opponent to date, so don't buy into all the ridiculousness about Huerta only fighting UFC first-timers.

Well, that is true, but Crane is a King of the Cage lightweight world champion and a Ring of Fire lightweight champion. He earned a black belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu from the Gracie Barra academy in Rio de Janeiro and is a former world jiu-jitsu champion and three-time Brazilian National jiu-jitsu champion. Not to mention that he's also a highly decorated grappler.

Matt's Pick: Albert Crane (upset of the night!)
LR's Pick: Alberto Crane via omoplata, lol, maybe not that, but I am betting on Crane to win

Josh Koscheck vs. Georges St-Pierre

Luke Cummo said it best: "This fight will be a battle of athleticism." Both are supremely athletic, but as I've said all along, I think that GSP does a better job of putting it all together as a mixed martial artist.

I know that the UFC wants us to believe that Koscheck is more than just a wrestler and that his much-improved striking is also a dangerous weapon, but I'm not buying it. In fact, the UFC seems to have had a tough time collecting highlights of Koscheck on his feet. How many times do we need to see Koscheck land a stiff jab to Diego Sanchez' forehead in slow motion??? His highlight reel even shows him throwing the same head kick (that did not connect) to Diego from different angles -- also in slow motion. Diego Sanchez virtually stood in front of Koscheck as if he wanted to box him, and although Koscheck was the aggressor, he didn't seem to overwhelm Diego with his striking.

In the days leading up to the fight, Koscheck seems to be pulling a Rashad Evans - an obvious attempt to show some "personality" by offering dim-witted, obviously fabricated trash talk, which I find both frustrating and amusing.

I think that GSP will come out with his head in the right place and give Koscheck the beating that Diego didn't. Look for an improved guard game from GSP, and don't be surprised by GSP's surprisingly good wrestling. GSP is the better fighter and will show the world that tomorrow night.

Matt's pick: GSP (all day)
LR's pick: GSP by brutal KO.

Joe Stevenson vs. Kurt Pellegrino

Joe Daddy is a Kodiak MMA favorite, and I think that a win over Pellegrino would catapult him to the forefront of the UFC lightweight class. Joe Daddy has had a pretty easy run as a lightweight, overpowering and choking out both Melvin Guillard and Dokonjonosuke Mishima.

Pellegrino is a bad-ass wrestler with great jiu-jitsu who will surely be fighting with friend and Team Armory stablemate Hermes Franca in mind. Pellegrino is a decorated grappler whose strength lies in his takedown abilities, particularly his slams. His stand-up game, however, has been underwhelming in the UFC.

Not only is Joe Daddy himself an accomplished wrestler, but if Pellegrino goes in for a takedown, sticks his head in the wrong place, and gives Joe an opportunity to slap those powerful arms around Pellegrino's neck, we might very well see The Daddy earn a third consecutive submission win by choke. Not that crazy a scenario, actually.

Overall, I think that Joe is a stronger, more experienced fighter with far superior striking. Look for Joe to keep this one on the feet for as long as he can.

Matt's Pick: Joe "Daddy" Stevenson
LR's Pick" Joe "Daddy" Stevenson

Patrick Cote vs. Kendall Grove

I've been waiting for Grove to make a big splash in the middleweight division, and I think this is the fight in which he'll do it.

Cote is definitely a tough striker, but I think that Grove presents a lot of problems for Cote. At 6'6" Grove is a nightmare in the clinch - knees, elbows, punches, everything. Grove has also been working out as part of Xtreme Couture, so we can expect a solid takedown and submission defenses from the big Hawaiian. Cote loves to bang (even though his most recent win over Scott Smith was lackluster) but so does Grove, who attacks with relentless precision.

Stylistically, a forward-charging slugger with decent submission skills, like Cote, is a good match for someone like Grove, who can punish you in a number of ways. And based on how Cote looked against Scott Smith, whose not nearly as complete a striker as Grove, Cote's best chance at victory is a knockout blow.

Matt's Pick: Kendall Grove
LR's Pick: Kendall Grove

Renato "Babalu" Sobral vs. Davis Heath

Simply put, Babalu needs this win. Badly. He's lost his last two UFC fights and did so in similar fashion: he rushed in against powerful strikers and was dropped. Babalu said that if he loses this fight, he's retiring (which I don't entirely believe). Regardless, the 205-lb. division is deeper than ever, and babalu can't affords to slide too far down the food chain.

To his credit, Babalu has defeated Shogun Rua, Jeremy Horn, and Trevor Prangley in one night (as part of a 2003 IFC event), and he once went the distance with Fedor Emelianenko. Babalu's grappling and Brazilian jiu-jitsu is top-notch, while Heath is primarily a boxer. If Heath comes in swinging, looking for the big punch, Babalu will take him apart with his submission game. Heath is no Chuck Liddell, and Babalu (hopefully) knows better than to abandon his jiu-jitsu skills in favor of banging away with a puncher like Heath.

Matt's Pick: Babalu Sobral
LR's Pick: Babalu

Clay Guida vs. Marcus Aurelio

If you don't know about Aurelio, you might be in for quite a treat. "Maximus" is a former Pride Bushido star who has excellent jiu-jitsu, solid takedowns, and a win over Pride lightweight champion Takanori Gomi. He's coming off of two losses, while his Guida, despite losing a bullshit split decision to Tyson Griffin at UFC 72 and another decision loss to Din Thomas before that, seems to have momentum on his side.

Guida is non-stop action and he seems to transition well from one aspect of the fight game to another. Guida is an excellent groundfighter with furious strength and speed and fast hands that he's more than willing to let fly. Guida has faced top competition in Din Thomas and Tyson Griffin, and I think that he'll be more than ready for Aurelio, who hasn't looked too good recently. I think that Guida's athleticism, skill, and conditioning will win it for him.

Matt's Pick: Clay Guida
LR's Pick: Guida by cardio machine decision

Frank Mir vs. Antoni Hardonk

With the recent additions to the UFC heavyweight divsion, it might be hard for some fans to really get excited for this fight. Hardonk is a relative unknown to most UFC fans, Mir has looked unimpressive since the motorcycle accident and surgery that forced him to vacate his heavyweight belt, and this fight has neither title nor top contender implications.

But still, I'd love to see the very talented, very skilled Mir fulfill the promise of his vast potential with an impressive showing. If not, we probably won't be seeing too much more of Frank Mir in the UFC.

Matt's Pick: Frank Mir
LR's Pick: Mir looked ok at weight in, I think his BJJ will still be superior, Mir by submission

Thales Lietes vs. Ryan Jensen

Jensen is a long-time middleweight who has good submission skills and loves to stand and bang. He's enjoyed success in several smaller promotions, but better bring his A-game against a very dangerous Thales Lietes.

Against Pete Sell and Floyd Sword, Lietes has shown that he has the striking, ground-and-pound, and submission game to be a real force in the UFC middleweight division. Lietes' black belt jiu-jitsu skills should ward off any submission attempts from Jensen, and based on how effectively pounded away on a very strong Pete Sell back at UFC 69, I expect Lietes to pick up his third straight UFC win.

Matt's Pick: Thales Lietes
LR's Pick: Thales Leites

This interview was conducted by Matt Kaplan from Kodiak MMA and is a contribution to MMA-analyst.com. Check out his blog!

You can read all of LR's in-depth analysis, and there is a lot of it, at this link here.


UFC 74: Complete Fight Card Analysis and Breakdown

by LR 8/15/2007 6:04:00 AM

We have finished our first complete fight card analysis and breakdown for UFC 74. With any luck, these posts will help you know a little about each fighter, his styles, and techniques in order for you to better gauge their performance at UFC 74. All the predictions are my own, so you can all hound me later if I do poorly. For the record, I have a 14-2 record since UFC 73 in the MMAplayground Season. If you haven't done so already, MMAPlayground is a fantasy MMA game in which you pick fights, and can also do fantasy wagering against about 6,000 other users. It's very fun. I picked Alvin Robinson over Kenny Florian and paid for it, even though Robinson looked great early and then succumbed to Florian's great ju-jitsu. I pick upsets because there is usually at least one on each fight card. It hasn't been the case so much since UFC 73 though. Here's our current breakdown of the event with links to our articles:

Click on each fighter for a Sherdog Fighter Profile displaying record and each fight
UFC 74 Breakdown Articles

Randy "The Natural" Couture vs. Gabriel "Napao" Gonzaga. - Article
Georges "Rush" St. Pierre vs. Josh Koscheck. - Article
Joe "Daddy" Stevenson vs Kurt Pellegrino - Article
Patrick "The Predator" Cote vs. Kendall "Da Spyda" Grove - Article
Renato "Babalu" Sobral vs. David Heath - Article
Marcus "Maximus" Aurelio vs. Clay "The Carpenter" Guida - Article
Alberto Crane vs. Roger "El Matador" Huerta - Article
Antoni Hardonk vs. Frank Mir - Article
Thales Leites vs. Ryan Jensen - Article

Enjoy our articles and hopefully this will bring some intelligent conversations to the MMA communites out there on the Internet through the knowledge we've given you all on some of the up and coming fighters in the UFC, and the veterans of the UFC. If you are a new fan to the UFC, definitely check out the video analysis. It definitely gives great insight into the styles and dynamics of each fighter.

In our upcoming segment, we will be analyzing the fight card for WEC 30. Look forward to that within the next few days.



Research, Statistics, and Predictions on the UFC 74 Fight Card

by LR 8/13/2007 6:02:00 AM

After covering both the Randy Couture vs. Gabriel Gonzaga title bout and the Georges St. Pierre vs. Josh Koscheck contender bout, we are turning our big guns toward the rest of the fight card at UFC 74 in Las Vegas on August 25th. The remaining fights and fighter's profiles courtesy of the fight finder at Sherdog.com are as follows:

Joe "Daddy" Stevenson vs Kurt Pellegrino
Patrick "The Predator" Cote vs. Kendall "Da Spyda" Grove
Renato "Babalu" Sobral vs.