The UFC makes its debut in Canada with an already sold out event in Montreal at the Bell Centre on Saturday night. The featured bout matches up Matt “The Terror” Serra against Georges “Rush” St. Pierre in a highly anticipated rematch  of their UFC 69 battle that saw Matt Serra upset St. Pierre. Rich Franklin will make his return to the Octagon after his second loss to UFC Middleweight champion Anderson Silva. He'll take on a venerable Travis Lutter who will test Franklin's submission defense. Other bouts scheduled include Canadian Kalib Starnes vs. Nate “The Rock” Quarry, Mac Danzig vs. Mark Bocek, Michael Bisping vs. Charles McCarthy, and Jason MacDonald vs. Joe “El Dirte” Doerkson, along with a slew of undercard bouts that are sure to entertain us. Let's take a look at the card.

Main Event: Georges “Rush” St. Pierre vs. Matt “The Terror” Serra
UFC Welterweight title bout

Oddly enough, Georges St. Pierre comes into this bout as a huge favorite while Serra once again remains the heavy underdog. St. Pierre's destruction of Matt Hughes at UFC 79 on short notice was stunning in the capacity of being unbelievably dominating. The fact that he can outwrestle any fighter in the weight class is a testament to his training regiment and work ethic. Wrestlers with plenty of credentials to back up their “smack” continue to fall to St. Pierre's superior skills. Pierre also has dynamic striking that is unparalleled in the division, but he has shown weakness in the standup at times, namely against his opponent, Matt Serra.

Serra's abilities are underrated by many fans of the sport. He has very good jiu-jitsu skills on the ground, and his strength can become a huge factor as the fight progresses. He's very tough to defeat by a finish, and he's never been submitted in MMA competition. I firmly believe it'll be a good test for St. Pierre if it becomes a chess match on the ground. The x-factor is Serra's heavy hands. He has some decent striking skills for a smaller welterweight, and with power behind them, we've seen what they can do against St. Pierre.

Bottom line: St. Pierre should win this fight within the first three rounds. He has great power, athleticism, dynamic striking, range, reach, and is coming off a stunning performance against Matt Hughes. Serra definitely has a shot on his feet, but I don't believe he can submit St. Pierre on the floor. Serra has great submission defense, so I'd stray away from St. Pierre defeating him there, but I do believe he can work some wrestling skills to open up the striking.

Leland's Prediction: Georges St. Pierre via TKO, Round 3

Rich “Ace” Franklin vs. Travis Lutter

Rich Franklin is looking to get back on the track back to another title shot. How many title shots can one have after being destroyed the previous two tries? We don't know, but Franklin is still a formidable opponent for anyone trying to make a run at Anderson Silva. He has good power, decent striking, big blow ground and pound, and he's not half bad on the ground either. He's a well-rounded fighter, but he isn't great in any one thing.

Lutter, on the other hand, is a great jiu-jitsu fighter on the ground, but he lacks the powerful hands that Franklin possesses. The biggest problem for Lutter is getting through Franklin's submission defense, a defense that has helped Franklin remain unbeaten by a submission throughout his 25 fight career.

Franklin should take this one. He has fantastic submission defense, and has the hands to defeat Lutter on his feet or on the ground. Franklin has taken on great grapplers in the past, and has always came through with his crushing ground and pound.

Leland's Prediction: Rich Franklin via TKO, Round 2

Michael Bisping vs. Charles “Chainsaw” McCarthy

In the wake of The Ultimate Fighter 6 Finale that aired on Saturday night, the UFC's lightweight division went through a small shuffling of the talent into its different echelons. We saw the addition of a new fighter to the UFC in Mac Danzig, a solid veteran MMA fighter. In addition to Danzig, Clay Guida and Roger Huerta both battled it out in arguably a candidate for the best fight of the year. Where do these guys stand in the lightweight division after the fight? Although the division seems to be set in stone near the top, Huerta's potential opponents seems to be many and Guida's stance in the division is in question. Let's take a good look at all the possibilities.

Roger Huerta

Huerta's miraculous comeback from a devastating beatdown in the first two rounds of his battle with Clay Guida on Saturday night proved that the lightweight can hang in the cage with some of the best. Although Guida has had some battles in which his standup proved to be lacking, he is the ultimate litmus test in cardio and endurance. If you can actually endure the onslaught of Clay Guida, your potential in the lightweight division is very high.

What's next for Roger Huerta? With Frankie Edgar defeating Spencer Fisher, a solid veteran that Edgar put on his back at will, there is a potential for that type of fight to happen. The problem is that Edgar has less experience and his style isn't exactly something that Huerta would have a terrible problem with. Edgar's takedowns would likely be nullified by Huerta's takedown defense and ability to scramble off the ground back to his feet.

More intriguing matchups I've heard are another solid veteran in Spencer Fisher, Kenny "I Finish Fights" Florian, Hermes Franca when he returns down the road, Joe Lauzon, a new 155'er in Diego Sanchez, and a returning Din Thomas. Spencer would probably get taken down and pounded out, Lauzon is being built up, and Florian is apparently close to in the title picture. Out of those three names, Florian seems like a decent style matchup. Florian is known for having much improved skills in nearly every fight he's in. His standup has improved, and his ground game has always been above average. He can land nasty elbows in the guard and while on his back. Would that be a good matchup for Huerta? I think it has the potential to be a good fight, but for me, Huerta has more experience and seems to be a bit more aggressive. But hey, I paid for not betting Florian in his past fights.

Sanchez is an interesting pick, but Huerta will have some standup advantages. Diego's wrestling and ju-jitsu is great, but Huerta has proven to be very skilled at avoiding being choked out or having a limb in danger of breakage. Without jumping into the upper echelon of the division, Huerta could see some fairly good matchups style wise in his future as the UFC builds him up for entry into the Central American market. Will we see him fighting the likes of Joe Stevenson, BJ Penn, or Sean Sherk any time soon? Highly unlikely.

Clay Guida

Let me just say that Clay Guida is a relentless warrior who makes me smile when I see his tenacious style in the cage. He continually gets matched up with some of the toughest opponents in the UFC, and he gets paid barely above the incoming talent. He also constantly delivers great fights, and without a doubt, the UFC has made more money off of him that he has made from them.

So, where do Clay Guida go from here? In fairness, Guida was winning his fight with Huerta decisively through two rounds. Can he somehow break into the upper echelon of the Lightweight division? I think he has the endurance and relentlessness to overwhelm many fighters, but he still lacks in his striking. He definitely needs some striking training to supplement his brutal takedown style. If he can improve his striking significantly, he would be on the redemption path on his way back up the chain.

With that said, however, Guida should still consider a drop down to 145 lbs. He would be a monster in the 145 lbs. division of WEC, and could give someone like Urijah Faber a run for his money. Many columnists have looked toward this idea, and it definitely has merit.

One aspect to the move to the WEC is that Guida's fan favorite status may be able to pull fans to watch Versus. It could be a brilliant marketing move and could set up some great fights, much like WEC 31 on Wednesday should produce. Guida's name may be a bit more recognizable to fans than the current WEC stable of fighters. The U.S. fanbase is unfamiliar with Paulo Filho, which is unfortunate. Put Guida in with some of the best in the WEC. Add in the fact that Pulver has moved over and has slapped his name in the mix, WEC should begin to see an increase in viewership of their cards.

Mac Danzig

One of the more interesting discussions I've had is the idea of Mac Danzig competing in the Lightweight division. He won the TUF 6 Finale and was awarded the contract in the UFC, but fought the entire show at 170 lbs. That should tell you the weakness of the fighters that were on the show. Especially during the Finale, Speer was cutting from at least 190 lbs. to 170 lbs. while Danzig walks around at 170 pounds, and Danzig still proceeded to dominate Speer.

Danzig will move down to 155 pounds now, and should make an impact in the division to an extent. Although I believe Danzig can last against any of the top fighters in the division, I think his skill level is still below some of the top fighters in the game right now in that division. Danzig was handled by Hayato "Mach" Sakurai in his last fight, but he was obviously overmatched in the standup game and still  managed to take it to the second round. He has some staying power during his fights, and as I've said in the past, that always increases your potential to pull off an upset and increase your chances to win.

Names, what names can we throw into the hat? The interesting concept here is the UFC's handling of Danzig's experience. Will they throw him in with better competition due to his vast experience or will they feed him some wins because of his TUF winner status? I think we'll see him in the latter against past TUF fighters from the last Lightweight show. It is possible to see him against some mid-tier fighters however since there are many that could match up stylistically with him.

I won't say whether or not Danzig will be in the title picture in a year or so, but if he is, I doubt that he can compete with some of the great talent near the top. He can probably last through the fight and have a chance at winning, but I believe his skills aren't honed enough yet to put him over the top. With a great training camp and some improvement in his standup, it's possible.

Final thoughts

Huerta could make a good run in the Lightweight division, although I'm not entirely convinced he has all the tools to make someone like BJ Penn look bad. Guida could be a tremendous fighter with some good striking techniques. He could also be a promotional gold mine for the WEC, although the Versus TV deal limits their exposure. Guida to 145 would be a good move.

Danzig can be a very good upper-echelon fighter if he can get with a training camp that can improve the areas in which he lacks tremendous skill. Notably, his standup isn't unbelievable, but it does add to his skillset in a dangerous way. Look for Danzig to either fight some TUF alumni for a couple fights or be thrown into the mid-tier range where he can actually string together some wins. It should be interesting to see what the UFC does with him.

The Ultimate Fighter Six Finale was a night of beginnings, and a night of endings.  The sun set on the UFC mainstay ‘Big’ John McCarthy.  Easily the most recognizable and high-profile referee the sport has seen, McCarthy officiated the main event and final match of his Hall-of-fame tenure.  In opposition to the loss of the greatest ref of all-time, The Pearl at the Palms played host to the start of Mac Danzig’s (17-4-1) days in the Octagon, a career he’ll begin as the TUF-6 winner.  Roger Huerta (20-1-1) began a new chapter in his story as well with the first of many possible wins against top-flight competition.  Following a rear-naked choke submission of Clay Guida (22-6), McCarthy raised the arm of ‘El Matador’ in victory; something it appears Big John has done for the last time.

From the opening bout the night provided excellent fights filled with action.  This installment of the TUF finals delivered where UFC 78 and the sixth season itself proved an inability to do so.  The night had decisive victories, drag-out wars, submissions and KOs; all capitalized by the sudden comeback win in the feature fight by Huerta.   The average class of fighter may not have been equal to some of the stacked PPV cards we have seen recently, but the action couldn’t have been much better; and to think…this was free, not forty bucks.

Entering the night much was made of Huerta’s lack of experience against upper-echelon competition.  For marketing purposes (they’re overt) Huerta has been pushed by the promotion in an attempt to further its appeal in the Hispanic community, specifically in our fight-loving neighbor Mexico.  Clay Guida represents as near a stylistic likeness to Huerta as there is. The major difference between the two; outside of hair-style; lies in  Guida’s track record of tough opponents. Although Guida has had mixed success against other world-class 155lbers, he has never looked outclassed. Huerta was certainly in for his toughest test yet, and he got all he could handle.

Let me say here that it looks like I’m in need of that forty bones I mentioned earlier. I bet against Huerta in tonight’s match and its time to pay up.  Through two rounds it didn’t look like the 24 year-old Minnesotan would leave the cage with his perfect UFC record intact, and I thought my money was safe.  But for the second time in six fights, a knee by Huerta all but ended a fight.  In the opening minute of the third round, Guida shot in for a takedown and was caught on the chin with the blast.  The Chicago-native was visibly rocked by the blow, staggering forward and eating glancing punches while desperately groping for a takedown.  Guida executed the takedown after a few seconds of anxious pursuit. Once on the ground Huerta was able to reverse, take Guida’s back and lock in the rear-naked choke without much resistance just 31 seconds into the final frame.

It was a sudden, sudden ending to a fight that had been dominated by ‘The Carpenter’ for ten minutes.  Huerta was on the defensive from the outset when Guida lifted the phenom onto his shoulders and planted him onto the mat.   The next nine minutes saw takedown after takedown as the seasoned vet out wrestled the younger Huerta.  More surprisingly was the visible frustration on Huerta’s face late in the second as Guida began to get the best of the action on the feet, something even Clay didn’t expect.  It was that frustration fueled by the urgency of being down two rounds to none that put away Guida in the third.

While Roger endured the toughest test of his career, Season Six’s Mac Danzig barely broke a sweat.  From the outset of the show, the 27 year old PRIDE veteran appeared head and shoulders above the rest of the competition.  Danzig was no secret to the MMA community before being selected to participate in the show.  He could have easily been traditionally added to the Zuffa stable of fighters and thrown into the mix. But more lucratively he was granted a slot on the reality show, and will now certainly boast a following as a result of the exposure.

A true lightweight (a la Joe Stevenson), Danzig overcame the glaring size advantage in the championship bout and dispatched Tommy Speer (9-2) with relatively no effort.  The two fighters couldn’t be any more different.  Danzig is a practicing vegan in L.A., Speer a dairy farmer in a Minnesota town of 800.  Despite ten fights, the brutish Speer was a relative rookie to the big scene, while the much smaller and technically sound Danzig had been tested. 

Danzig repeatedly made reference to his nerves entering the fight, but Speer was the one who looked to have a gut full of butterflies.  Predictably, he rushed Mac looking for the takedown only to have the elder fighter put Speer on his back.  Once there, it was all downhill for the pride of Elgin, MN.   Danzig smoothly secured mount and battered the larger Speer with punches and elbows until he gave up his back.  In textbook fashion, Danzig applied the rear-naked and launched his promising UFC career.

While Danzig and Huerta will receive the attention and accolades on the heels of their equally stellar performances, McCarthy is just as deserving; if not more.  The man who coined ‘Lets Get it On’ way back in 1994 (!) resigned from his p\ksition with the UFC to become an analyst for The Fight Network.   With 535 bouts officiated, Big John stands alone as an official, and is without a doubt a timeless MMA icon.  The progression the sport has undergone since UFC 2 when McCarthy made his debut is immense, and the view the former LA police officer has had throughout is unique.  I would love to see Big John write a book on his career and what he has seen; it’d be a fascinating read.  We here at MMA-Analyst would like to say thank you for being the best at your trade for over a decade and keeping the sport safe, enabling it to reach the heights it has.  We wish you the best Big John, we know you’ll be great.  The UFC will go on without you, but will never be able to replace you.

The rest of the card

The broadcast began with a rematch from this season between Ben Saunders (5-0-2) and Dan Barrera (1-1).  The Jeet-Kune-Do practicing Saunders got the best of Barrera the first time around, winning a controversial decision over the Team Hughes fighter.  Barrera took down Saunders over and over again, but the long and lanky guard of the 6’3” American Top Team fighter staved off the ground and pound of Barrera.  By the end of the match, Saunders was dominating the one-dimensional Barrera and took home a unanimous decision victory.  At his size, Saunders looks very promising.  His range on the feet is superior to anyone else in the division, and his guard looked outstanding; albeit it was against a ‘green’ Barrera.  Barrera had virtually no offense throughout, and looked to me like a Matt Hamill without explosiveness and comparable athleticism.

In the second match, George Sotiropoulos (8-2) made short work of fellow cast mate Billy Miles (2-2).  Miles charged the Australian from the bell with wild punches.  Sotiropoulos rebounded from his KO loss to Speer in the semi-finals on the show and choked out Miles by way of RNC three minutes in.   Miles just looked completely outclassed on the ground and in the fighters’ demeanor.  It was reminiscent of those desert spiders that just lay in wait and snatch their pray.

Troy Mandaloniz (3-1) put Richie Hightower (7-2) to sleep with a jab late in the first round of their bout.  The fight was a see-saw slugfest with Mandaloniz receiving as much damage as he was dishing out.  Hightower was too predictable on the feet, continuously throwing the same 1 – 2 left right combo.  The Hawaiian native timed Hightower with a jab that landed spot on the chin and followed up on the collapsed fighter with vicious hammerfists, forcing a stoppage.  Mandaloniz showed power and a good chin.  Those Hawaii boys sure can fight, can’t they?

A case could be made that the fight of the night belonged to Jon Koppenhaver (5-1) and Jared Rollins (6-4).  The two shared tension during the show, and the story-line came to a conclusion with Koppenhaver pounding out a TKO win in the third.  The fight was back and forth on both the feet and the floor.  I had Koppenhaver narrowly winning the first round with scattered GnP.  Rollins managed to cut Koppenhaver on the head with elbows that appeared to be borderline illegal (downward strike).  From then on out, the blood was effusive.  Rollins and the much younger Koppenhaver were drenched in it for the rest of the bout.  Just as Rollins appeared to seal the win with a big knee and consequent GnP, Koppenhaver combined a kimura with a sweep and reversed position.  One huge elbow and five right hands later Rollins was rendered defenseless.  Both of these guys will be back, they put on a great show.  The crowd gave a standing ‘O’ before the third round started. That pretty much ensures their return.  Again, this was a bloody match that left Koppenhaver looking like he had a cheesy fake tan, Frankie Avalon style.

Matt Arroyo (3-1) submitted John Kolosci (8-5) with an armbar in the first round.  It appeared only a matter of time before Kolosci became a submission victim for the third time in as many fights.  Arroyo slapped on four or five submission attempts before he nabbed the win.  Arroyo appears to be very talented and possibly the forgotten member of the cast. I look for him to make waves moving forward.

In the two dark matches, Roman Mitichyan (4-1) won by ankle lock over Dorian Price (7-3) in just 23 seconds and Jonathan Goulet (21-9) RNC’d Paul Georgieff (5-2) late in the first.

The Ultimate Fighter Season 6 has finally come to an end and we now have the finalized fight card for the Ultimate Fighter Finale on Saturday night from the Palms in Las Vegas, Nevada. The featured main event is a barn burner. Clay "The Carpenter" Guida will be taking on Roger Huerta in Huerta's first major test to begin gaining ground to reach the top of the division. In the TUF Finale matchup to win the UFC Contract, Mac Danzig will be taking on Tommy Speer. Favorite George Sotiropolous lost to Speer in the semifinal, but will have a chance to showcase his skill against a green fighter in Billy Miles. The "TUF" matchups include Jared "J-Rock" Rollins taking on John "War Machine" Koppenhaver, Richie Hightower will stand with Troy Mandaloniz, Roman Mitichyan vs. Dorian Price, Matt Arroyo vs. John Kolosci, and Ben Saunders vs. Dan Barrera. The lone dissenter to the "TUF" format is Paul Georgieff. He will take on Canadian Jonathan Goulet. It's shaping up to be a fairly decent event, although some of the matchups look to be one-sided. Joe Schmitt and Leland Roling make their picks also for the event, let's take a look at the card.

Main Event Matchup
Clay "The Carpenter" Guida vs. Roger "El Matador" Huerta

It's hard for me to remain heavily unbiased in this assessment since Clay Guida is from the heart of Chicago and a die-hard Chicago Bears fan, even though our Bears are terrible this season. I will, however, seek to look thoroughly at this matchup.

Clay Guida (22-8) is the type of fighter that never quits. Highly regarded for his cardio that is often compared to a machine, Guida presses the pace and never seems to gas out during his battles. Guida is also one of the toughest UFC fighters in the Lightweight division, taking on some of the UFC's best fight after fight. His most recent win was over Marcus Aurelio at UFC 74 by split decision in a somewhat tactical affair. He also has a fairly impressive win over Josh Thomson. He lost to Tyson Griffin and Din Thomas at previous UFC events, and has taken on the such fighters as Gilbert Melendez, Bart Palaszewski, and Tristan Yunker in the past.

Admittedly, Guida is perfectly honest in breaking down his own game. He has stated in past interviews that he doesn't consider himself a complete fighter yet and that he still has a lot of work to do in his wrestling game and striking game. Specifically, the pre-fight interviews at his Strikeforce battle with Gilbert Melendez stating these comments. This is a good self-assessment, although he does seem to be improving in some aspects of MMA.

There is one glaring weakness that was apparent against Aurelio was Guida's striking. Although he was very effective when dodging blows and ducking under them to explode with strikes of his own, his pre-emptive strikes on Aurelio were looping and for the most part, slow. His biggest strength has always been his aggressiveness and relentless attack. Specifically, putting his opponent to the mat and pounding him out with his strength is the best style he has.

Roger Huerta (19-1-1) is your typical UFC made cookie cutter fighter. He's been made to beat the division, and be a darling to the media that the UFC wants to attract. He has an interesting backstory that includes being adopted. It makes for a story, but that's not all there is to Roger Huerta.

Huerta has some impressive striking ability and a decent chin to boot. He has some fast hands and doesn't seem to loop nearly as much as Guida has in the past. His style is mostly aggressive movement into the body and putting his opponent down with strikes and pounding on him, or trying to grab top mount on the ground. As we saw in his battle with Alberto Crane, he has very good submission defense.

There are some weaknesses to his game. Doug Evans came out at the TUF 5 Finale and nearly had Huerta early in the first round after getting his back. It is apparent that Huerta has a weakness on the ground, but he can also be caught by a premier striker because he tends to brawl. This could be seen heavily in the Leonard Garcia fight, although he won most of the exchanges. More...