UFN 13 Preview and Predictions: Upsets anyone?

by LR 4/1/2008 9:49:00 AM

Get ready, fans! This could very well be one of the most exciting cards put together by the UFC in quite some time. UFC Fight Night 13 will take place on Wednesday night from Broomfield Event Center in Broomfield, Colorado, and it will feature a highly anticipated matchup between Kenny Florian and Joe Lauzon. Thiago Alves will also make a step up in competition against Karo Pariysan, and the event will feature well known names such as Matt Hamill, Houston Alexander, Gray Maynard, Frankie Edgar, Din Thomas, Clay Guida, and recent TUF contestants George Sotiropoulous, Roman Mitichyan, Tommy Speer. This could very well be the “Stacked” event we've all been waiting for. Props to Fightlinker for pushing the idea of making this event a 3 hour live televised card. The UFC won't acknowledge it, but I will. Great job, FL.

Before we get to my picks and Joe's predictions, let me just say.. I'm crazy for picking the fights I did, but I felt that there were some solid upset picks in the bunch.

Main Event: Joe Lauzon vs. Kenny Florian

This is a battle that I've been waiting for since it was announced. Kenny Florian's last seven battles have featured the former TUF contestant against some formidable opponents as he progressed up through the ranks. The climax was his loss to Sean Sherk at UFC 64, but he honorably took the fight to decision against a full load in Sherk. After the loss, he defeated Dokonjonosuke Mishima, a tough and explosive Alvin Robinson, and was putting the elbows on Din Thomas before he suffered a blown knee. Riding a three-win streak, Florian will be looking to stop the up-and-coming Joe Lauzon, and potentially win himself a title shot against BJ Penn.

Lauzon has been on a tear recently. He's won his last six fights in finishing fashion with a huge knockout win over former UFC lightweight champion Jens Pulver. The only real problem that Lauzon has had is that the level of competition he has faced has been subpar since Pulver. Melendez wasn't suited well against Lauzon's grappling, and Reinhardt's record was padded with horribly lopsided competition. Lauzon has the striking power in his hands and some excellent boxing skills, but Florian can counter his grappling and has some decent boxing himself. Florian is also very well versed in using his elbows in the ground and pound, and he's as tough as they come. This should be one exciting battle.

Without letting my biased get in the way too much, I'm admittedly a big Joe Lauzon fan. IT geek turned MMA fighter, who doesn't love it? On a purely analytical basis, Lauzon is great in most areas of mixed martial arts. He has great standup, good ground and pound, and can be controlling on the ground. Florian also has similar skills, and I don't believe Lauzon will be able to completely control him. The x-factor here is Lauzon's training at BJ Penn's facility in Hilo, Hawaii. Could it potentially have improved significantly enough to nullify the ground game? I think Lauzon has some ways to end this fight in which Florian may not be able to unless he can catch Lauzon in a submission.

Leland's Prediction: Joe Lauzon via submission, Round 3

This is an extremely close match-up between two above-average fighters. Florian has the better stand-up, but Lauzon has the better wrestling. Lauzon isn’t great at any one thing, but he is good at everything. Lauzon has decent striking, some decent power, good wrestling, and some ferocious ground-and-pound. Florian has good Muay Thai, and is a black belt in Brazilian Jiu-JJitsu. I think Joe will stand with Kenny for a while until he sees an opening to take a shot. From there he will look to work his ground-and-pound, but he will need to avoid Florian’s submissions. I think Joe’s training with BJ Penn will help him on the ground en route to a unanimous decision.

Joe's Prediction: Joe Lauzon via unanimous decision

Karo Parisyan vs. Thiago Alves

Karo has a bit of a task ahead of him in this one. Parisyan has been known recently for winning some weak decisions that were fairly uneventful. Parisyan has some big problems in this fight though, and it's evident if we look at his track record. Parisyan hasn't faced huge power in his last few fights, in fact, his last nine fights haven't featured overwhelming striking. Lytle and Serra could have been seen as potential forces in the standup game, but Serra is mainly a big puncher who hopes for the lucky blow while Lytle was winning his way to decisions back when Parisyan took him on. This will definitely test Parisyan's abilities to avoid the big shots.

Alves has unbelievable Muay Thai strikes, devastating leg kicks, and great striking even when he's backpedaling from danger. I'm going to pick Alves in the upset because of his destructive striking. He finishes fights in crushing fashion, and if Karo allows the fight to go into the later rounds, he has much less of a chance of defeating Parisyan.

Leland's Prediction: Thiago Alves via TKO/KO, Round 2

Alves has done something that is nearly impossible to do: he stopped Christ Lytle in his last fight. However, I don’t think he’s ready for “The Heat.” Karo is extremely durable and brings a relentless attack throughout the fight. In fact, he has only been stopped twice in his career, both by former lightweight champion Sean Sherk. Alves doesn’t have the wrestling to control Karo, and Karo will use his wild stand-up to close the distance and unleash his unique judo game. Fortunately for Karo, I think this is a fight he can actually finish. Expect a submission late in the fight, most likely by kimura.

Joe's Prediction: Karo Parisyan via submission, Round 3

Tim Boestch vs. Matt Hamill

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Ultimate Fight Night 12 Preview and Predictions

by LR 1/22/2008 5:40:00 PM
MikeSwick.com

Only a mere 4 days after an exciting UFC 80 in England, the UFC heads back into the United States and invades The Pearl in Las Vegas, Nevada for Ultimate Fight Night 12. The main event will feature Mike Swick, recently dropping down and beginning a new career at Welterweight, and Josh Burkman who will be trying to secure an impressive victory to get back on track. Also on the card will be Canadian Patrick “The Predator” Cote vs. heavy handed Drew McFedries, trash talking Nate Diaz vs. Alvin “Kid” Robinson, Kurt Pellegrino vs. Alberto Crane, Thiago Tavares vs. Michihiro Omigawa, and four other fights featuring TUF alumni. Let's take a brief look at each battle, and we'll give you our predictions.

Mike “Quick” Swick vs. Josh Burkman

This will be Mike Swick's first mixed martial arts bout at 170 pounds. After a stint on the original Ultimate Fighter reality show, he dropped down to Middleweight with some success, but ran into a roadblock in Yushin Okami at UFC 69. Swick decided it was time to stay away from the upper-echelon of the Middleweight elite and drop down for a better chance at using his hands against the Welterweight's top competition. Swick will have a firm test in Josh Burkman in his first bout.

Burkman hasn't been exactly impressive in his performances. He narrowly defeated Forrest Petz at UFC 77, looked silly trying to land haymakers against Karo Parisyan, and won decisions against Chad Reiner and Josh Neer after losing to Jon Fitch in dominating fashion.

Stylistically, Burkman doesn't offer much as far as finishing opponents. His standup has lacked technical prowess in many of his bouts, and simply throwing huge haymakers will not earn him a big win. Swick, on the other hand, has a good amount of finishes in his MMA career. He has some heavy hands, but with better competition comes closer bouts. He wasn't able to overcome Okami's power, but Burkman definitely doesn't offer anything near what Okami was bringing.

Personally, I think Burkman's performance against Parisyan was the epitome of what he offers. He tried to hard to put Karo out with the big haymaker and not enough time trying to control him to the canvas. Karo has unbelievable skill, but I grew tiresome of seeing Burkman simply loop huge, slow haymakers that Karo dodged easily. Swick should have an easy time avoiding those blows. He'll also be taller, and a bigger Welterweight since he will be cutting from a much higher weight.

Leland's Prediction: Mike Swick via TKO, Round 2

This is Swick’s first fight at welterweight. He will have an enormous reach advantage on Burkman, and will use that advantage to avoid the ground. Look for Swick to pepper Burkman from the outside and he may even have a chance at the infamous Swickatine if Burkman takes an ill-timed shot. Swick will control the pace of the fight from start to finish and won’t give Burkman any breathing room.

Joe’s Prediction: Mike Swick, unanimous decision
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Patrick “The Predator” Cote vs. Drew McFedries

This is definitely one of the more even matchups of the evening. Cote is the more experienced fighter sporting an 11-4 record with big wins over Scott Smith, Kendall Grove, and Jason MacDonald. Cote is all-around well skilled fighter who has shown some power in his hands recently, but he's more of a battler along the fence with his clinch work and ground game.

McFedries is an interesting prospect. He's what many consider to be a Robbie Lawler type of puncher. He has huge power that he's shown in the past, but he's also been criticized for his cardio. He currently holds a 6-2 record, recently coming off a horrible staph infection that caused him to pull out of his last fight. There's no doubt that McFedries will be looking to drill Cote.

Will that happen? It's a possibility, but I see it as the only way McFedries can win this one. Cote is more well-rounded, has better clinch work and can do some damage on the ground where McFedries hasn't shown much of any type of defense. McFedries is also low in the gas tank, which could prove to be his Achilles Heel.

Leland's Prediction: Patrick Cote via TKO, Round 2

This is going to be a tough test for Cote. He has shown in the past, particularly against Leben, that he has a strong chin. Look for McFedries to test it early and often. I think eventually McFedries’ power will overwhelm Cote and he’ll finish him with strikes.

Joe’s Prediction: Drew McFedries, TKO, Round 2
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UFC 74 Post-Fight Breakdown and Analysis: Part 1 of 2

by LR 8/27/2007 7:18:00 AM

Randy Couture came, he saw, he conquered... all at the tender age of 44 years old. He once again proved to this MMA fan, and to many other MMA fans that betting against Randy Couture is not the smart thing to do. Randy Couture stopped Gabriel Gonzaga by TKO in the 3rd round to defend the UFC Heavyweight Title and put to rest the claims that Couture may be getting too old for this sport. With that said, let's take a look at the evening's fight card with some insight on the improvements we saw and the key factors that each fighter will need work on for their upcoming bouts in the future.

Main Events
Randy Couture vs. Gabriel Gonzaga

An overall stellar gameplan by Randy Couture cemented the victory in the 3rd round to defend his UFC Heavyweight title. Couture used a great combination of pace, quick tempo, dirty boxing, and pure strength and clinching skill to get in close on Gonzaga and pound him. Gonzaga came out fast with a two punch combo he landed on Couture, but Couture shot back and landed a heavy punch to Gonzaga, who backed away after the hit. The two fighters traded a few more shots when Couture tried to take Gonzaga down, and Gonzaga showed his balance and fought it off. Couture came back with a left hook, catching Gonzaga and then clinching him from his waist and throwing him to the canvas. Gonzaga was able to get up fairly easily from Couture's takedown early, but then used the clinch to throw Gonzaga down and pound him as he tried to stand back up. Couture landed numerous blows while Gonzaga tried to regain his feet. Gonzaga was able to land a flush elbow in one exchange and back it with a quick right that rattled Couture for a second before he ran Gonzaga into another clinch. Couture was able to then lift Gonzaga in the clinch and slam him. This resulted in Couture's head butting Gonzaga's nose and breaking it. A definite turning point for Gonzaga as he now was unable to breath out his nose and was panting heavily through his mouth. Gonzaga recovered, but was put back into a clinch. Couture landed numerous blows to Gonzaga in the clinch with his dirty boxing. A very effective win in round 1 by Randy Couture.

The second round was no different. Couture continued to throw quick combos and then push the clinch into the fence. Gonzaga was able to land some blows in the quick exchanges they did have, but the smart Couture punched and quickly countered Gonzaga's blows with a shoot to tie up Gonzaga. Around the 3:50 mark, Gonzaga complained that he could not see due to the broken nose flooded his eyes. The fight was stopped for a moment in which it was explained to Gonzaga that he could not stop the fight for that reason. Herb Dean continued to fight in the clinch and Couture continued to keep the clinch and reign punches on Gonzaga. Gonzaga was deducted a point for holding onto the fence about 10 seconds after his stoppage. Holding the fence didn't help Gonzaga fend off the assault that Couture was imposing on his opponent. It was clear that Gonzaga was losing his breath and was gassing out as Couture continued to land blows to Gonzaga's head.

Third round began and a standup battle began. Gonzaga was able to land a stiff head kick that somewhat stunned Couture. Gonzaga tried to capitalize, but Couture put him back into the clinch. Couture was then able to take down Gonzaga. At this point, Gonzaga was so tired and so beaten that it was only a matter of time. Couture reigned blows on Gonzaga's head and Gonzaga could only cover up. Dean called the fight since Gonzaga was not trying to escape the beatdown and barely able to defend the punches.

The Breakdown

Couture was a pure joy to watch. He was able to utilize the clinch to absolutely dominate Gonzaga in the fence. Gonzaga's only strength seemed to show when the clinch was a non-factor and Gonzaga was able to throw a few combos. Couture, as smart as he is, was able to see the fact in past fights that his standup game isn't the best in MMA. He stayed away from trading punches, and closed in on Gonzaga. A very good gameplan and he was able to stick to it. He never gave Gonzaga a chance to use his ju-jitsu either because Couture was mainly throwing Gonzaga down near the fence in order to stay on his feet and use the fence to prop Gonzaga up so he could land shots easier. It was an amazing feat.

Improvements

Gonzaga needs to beef up his power. He was being manhandled in the clinch. He had good balance when Randy tried to take him down, but he wasn't able to power Randy off of him at any moment. Ju-jitsu is a great ground game, but if you have nothing to stop the clinch or at least squirm out of it, you will be tied up for hours when fighting Randy Couture. Gonzaga showed glimmers of a standup game, but his head was concentrating too much on landing punches and not enough on whether or not Randy was going to counter with a takedown. When Randy did counter, Gonzaga had zero defense against it.

Couture's clinch is world renowned, and he looked very powerful. I will say his standup game still needs to improve a bit, but he was trading shots with Gonzaga. Overall though, a very well rounded fight by Couture. I didn't see one bit of this fight that I could honestly say Couture could have been better in.

Georges St. Pierre vs. Josh Koscheck

Georges St. Pierre showed that his mental toughness was intact this evening. St. Pierre and Koscheck came out at the beginning of this fight to huge cheers for St. Pierre. As the fight began, Koscheck threw a number of combinations that completely missed Pierre and left Koscheck open to a takedown early in the fight. From the takedown, Pierre began to work his strikes in on Koscheck, and nearly passing his guard early in the fight. Pierre was able to actually stand in Koscheck's guard and rain punches down on Koscheck, but eating a few strikes from Koscheck in the process. With about 2 minutes left in the first round, Koscheck was able to get off the ground and make an attempt to take down St. Pierre. Pierre held himself in a sprawl while Koscheck lifted one of Pierre's legs off the ground in order to unbalance him for the takedown. Koscheck suddenly exploded into the fence taking Pierre with him in a brutal takedown. Pierre was able to tie up Koscheck for the rest of the round after the takedown. Koscheck was unable to mount any significant attack out of the late round takedown and I gave St. Pierre the round.

St. Pierre came out in the second round looking even quicker than he did in the first round. Koscheck wasn't making Pierre pay for his attempts at punching and kicking Koscheck early on. After a flurry of attempts by Pierre, he was able to easily grab Koscheck's leg and take him down in amazement of the crowd. Pierre had been taking Koscheck down at will so far during the matchup and Koscheck doesn't seem to have an answer. Pierre's fakes and constant mixture of standup and shoots is definitely confusing Koscheck. Pierre attempted a kimura during the ground battle that ensued. Koscheck was able to pull out of it only to have Pierre create another opportunity for a kimura after the first attempt. Pierre switched gears and passed Koscheck's guard into side control and began to strike at Koscheck's head. Pierre was very impressive in his takedown game during this round. Numerous attempts by Koscheck to get off the ground were met by Pierre's tenacity. Koscheck would roll onto his feet only to be met by Pierre's grip. He was ultimately kept down on the ground in every escape attempt by Pierre's perseverance. At the end of the round, Pierre again was able to catch Koscheck in a side mount and try for the kimura. He was unable to finish it, but he dominated Koscheck on the ground in a will crushing way that Koscheck could not have possibly expected.

The third round became a standup battle in which Pierre was able to use his range to keep Koscheck away while he put together some nice combinations that landed. Koscheck grabbed Pierre's leg and went for the takedown, but Pierre reversed it and put Koscheck on his back... again. The fight continued as Pierre tried to land punches while on top of Koscheck. The fight ended with Pierre almost pulling a leg lock, but the bell rang as Koscheck slammed his fist down in complete disgust.

The Breakdown

This fight proved once again that Georges St. Pierre is on top of his game again. The entire pre-fight discussions involving this fight all revolved around Georges St. Pierre's mental toughness and became borderline absurdity when some fans questioned his character. St. Pierre came out and dominated a fighter that was better than him in one area of the MMA game. But did St. Pierre stay away from that? No, he went after Koscheck on the ground and was able to even reverse a few takedown attempts and stifle Koscheck's escapes. He put on a takedown clinic against an accomplished wrestler and it begs the question, does a NCAA Division I championship really guarantee success at the top of the MMA divisional ranks? It certainly helps in some cases, but Georges St. Pierre doesn't have a wrestling championship. He trains his ass off, and it showed at UFC 74

Improvements

Koscheck has the most obvious flaws in his game out of the two fighters. Koscheck should take one thing away from this battle. He should really think about learning a ju-jitsu game and using it. The idea that he will own the world on the ground is over for him. He went against someone who basically threw him down at will, and he was unable to counter whatsoever during the entire fight. If Koscheck had an intermediate level ju-jitsu game, he would have been able to at least fend off some attacks and possibly catch Pierre with a submission hold. It wouldn't be guaranteed if he could submit him, but it would definitely make St. Pierre think about standing it up. But.. then the rub hits again.. Koscheck's standup was easily dwarfed by Pierre's standup regiment. Yes, very true. Pierre has a vast skillset he can use. He tied combos together effortlessly, and he mixes it up. Koscheck threw rehearsed combos that were easily predictable after the first round. Koscheck needs to add some standup skills to his game along with some additional ground skills if he really wants to be in the top 5 of the welterweight division. Even with an added standup factor, he could potentially sit in the top 3. Sherdog has him listed in the top 5, but after this performance, I beg to make an argument that some of the guys below him may overtake those spots.

Main Card Fights
Joe Stevenson vs. Kurt Pellegrino

Stevenson wasn't completely dominant in my eyes, but you could make a case that he was. Pellegrino was only able to use his ju-jitsu to fend off Stevenson from otherwise pounding him out early to squeak this fight to a decision in which Stevenson won unanimously. Stevenson, like many previous fights, had numerous guillotine choke attempts. Pellegrino came out punching, but in the later rounds was mainly stuck on his back while Stevenson pounded him. Stevenson was able to suplex Pellegrino in the first round and immediately take his back again. Pellegrino had one instance where he was able to take Stevenson down, but it didn't result in really any damage done. Stevenson and Pellegrino traded punches for much of the second round. Pellegrino was going for quantity instead of quality while Stevenson looked for a good punch. Stevenson was able to control a few takedowns while Pellegrino looked to be gassing late in the second round. The most decisive round was the third round domination by Stevenson. Pellegrino was clearly gassing and Stevenson pushed the pace and took down Pellegrino against the fence. Stevenson was able to stay standing and jab at Pellegrino while he was down nudged in the fence. He scored many blows and Pellegrino was doing little to defend against them. Stevenson won via unanimous decision, a very good fight by Joe Daddy.

The Breakdown

Better cardio and impressive takedowns and escapes by Stevenson dominated this fight. Pellegrino didn't look too bad in the beginning of the fight. He was throwing punches and landing a few, but Stevenson was bobbing and weaving like he was a pure boxer. Pellegrino wasted some energy throwing a lot of punches, and was vulnerable to the takedown early. Stevenson was able to get some big hits on Pellegrino while on top of him, and had numerous guillotine attempts early.  By the second round, Pellegrino started to gas and get frustrated at having Stevenson escape all of his takedowns. Stevenson locked it down in the third round with a good takedown and ground n' pound against the fence to finish the fight off and secure a victory of himself. Impressive cardio and escapes by Joe "Daddy" Stevenson.

Improvements

Stevenson looked good, with great ju-jitsu he utilized to control Pellegrino on the ground, and some impressive defense in his standup game. He picked his shots and conserved energy early when standing. He also had a number of good reversals and escapes that Pellegrino definitely grew frustrated with. If Stevenson wants to get into the upper echelon of the division, his standup could use some explosiveness. His takedown defense isn't the greatest even though Pellegrino is a very accomplished wrestler. Stevenson didn't seem to be using the sprawl when he could have, and definitely could have used it more to control Pellegrino and possibly get him into submission attempts.

Pellegrino needs to add more cardio to his game, the most obvious flaw in his fight. He also needs to tighten up his standup and learn to throw quality punches instead of wasting energy throwing a lot of punches for low percentage hits. He seemed to be sticking his fists out there to stop Stevenson from shooting, but it didn't work at all during this fight. Pellegrino did have some flashes of greatness in his wrestling game, but he allowed Stevenson to escape numerous times. Pellegrino could work on his body control techniques a bit more to stop Stevenson from doing so, or it could possibly all revolve around his bad cardio.

Roger Huerta vs. Alberto Crane

This fight was a disappointment for me. I was hoping we would see a quality contender against Huerta, and in most respects, it was for the first round. However, I did not expect Crane to gas so quickly and literally fall apart dead in the last round. The highlights of this fight are few as Huerta laid a ground n' pound smack down on Crane from the get go as Crane scrambled to pull off an upset submission throughout the fight. It was evident early that Crane wanted to take it to the ground while Huerta wanted to keep it up. Crane eventually took Huerta down, but Huerta impressed the fans with escape after escape after escape. Eventually, Crane grew tired and his strength was very low compared to Huerta's power. Crane had a few attempts in the second round that would have garnered a victory if he had any strength at all, but Huerta just held on and escaped each time. Huerta threw huge bombs down on Crane when he escaped and was able to ground and pound Crane. Crane had a huge mouse under his left eye for most of the match, but the real story was Crane's cardio. About a third of the way through the second round, Crane was nearly asleep. He was barely able to stand and was trying to take the fight to the ground with very weak takedown attempts. At times, he was able to get Huerta down, but any attempt to submit Huerta was met with an easy escape transitioning to a ground n' pound on Crane's face. Crane lost via TKO in the third round due basically to the fact he was so tired he couldn't defend himself.

The Breakdown

Huerta's escapes transitioned into ground n' pound tactics that literally smeared Crane all over the mat. Huerta looked stronger, had more cardio, and was downright hateful in his striking on the ground. There isn't much of a breakdown other than I can't believe Crane lasted till the 3rd round.

Improvements

Obviously, if we see Crane in the UFC again, he needs to improve his cardio vastly. He also needs some type of standup game, anything to help him takedown opponents better and transition easily into submission holds. When he did take Huerta down, he was expending a lot of energy trying to defeat Huerta's sprawl. It'd be much easier for him had Huerta needed to look for a stray punch to the face. Those are two huge hurdles he will need to jump to even compete. He has a great ground game as we saw he transitioned too many different attempts, but he didn't have the strength to pull them into a complete submission.

Huerta looked better in this fight. It was a true ground test for him, and he was able to pass with flying colors. He showed his skills in escaping various ju-jitsu submission attempts and was able to easily transition to his own game. I will say that he wasn't tested that intensely since Crane basically became limp after the midpoint of the 2nd round. I look to see Huerta fight someone like a Guida who is a cardio machine to really test his energy and power.

To be continued tomorrow...



MMA-Analyst's UFC 74 Pre-Fight Predictions

by Matt Kaplan 8/24/2007 11:11:00 AM

I did a preview/predictions post awhile back, and Matt has posted a preview/predictions post for his blog, so I'm going to combine the two and give everyone a general preview and our predictions of the UFC 74 card at Mandalay Bay in Las Vegas. This is shaping up to be a very good card matchup wise. Now, to be fair, I've said this in the past and the card ended up being a snoozer or disappointing all together. This card does have a lot of even matchups though, and I'm hoping we really get some distance out of the two top fights on the card. Let's take a good look at Matt's predictions:

UFC 74 Pre-Fight Jitters

Anyone else get that anxious feeling the day before a big event? The odds are that the only physical activity I'll be doing during the fights is getting up for some more White Castle, but I feel as if I'm fighting tomorrow.

Anyway, here's how I see tomorrow night's UFC 74 card. Please note that my picks are a combination of whom I think will win, as well as whom I want to win.

Randy Couture vs. Gabriel Gonzaga

I truly believe that Gonzaga has the right combination of size, power, grappling, submission skills, and striking to dethrone the older, smaller Randy Couture. Gonzaga's stand-up attack benefited greatly from his time with Wanderlei Silva, Shogun Rua, and the rest of the Chute Boxe guys a few years back, and we all saw how dangerous he could be from inside the guard. Wanderlei and Rua have each said, on separate occasions, that they believe Gonzaga has the tools to defeat Couture.

Nonetheless, my heart is with Randy tomorrow. I didn't think he could beat Liddell, and he did. I didn't think he could beat Belfort, and he did. I thought, for sure, that Sylvia would overwhelm the newly un-retired Randy. Wrong again. I believe that tomorrow night we'll see a Randy Couture that's better than the one who beat up on Tim Sylvia at UFC 68. No one devises and executes a game plan like Randy (well, maybe Fedor), whose game is constantly evolving and surprising millions.

Matt's Pick: Randy Couture
LR's Pick: Gabriel Gonzaga

Roger Huerta vs. Alberto Crane

I think Huerta has a lot to lose in this fight. If he wins, look for him to be in the forefront of the lightweight championship picture. He's young, the ladies seem to dig him, he's got a great story, and he speaks Spanish: Dana's all over that. In Crane, Huerta definitely faces his toughest opponent to date, so don't buy into all the ridiculousness about Huerta only fighting UFC first-timers.

Well, that is true, but Crane is a King of the Cage lightweight world champion and a Ring of Fire lightweight champion. He earned a black belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu from the Gracie Barra academy in Rio de Janeiro and is a former world jiu-jitsu champion and three-time Brazilian National jiu-jitsu champion. Not to mention that he's also a highly decorated grappler.

Matt's Pick: Albert Crane (upset of the night!)
LR's Pick: Alberto Crane via omoplata, lol, maybe not that, but I am betting on Crane to win

Josh Koscheck vs. Georges St-Pierre

Luke Cummo said it best: "This fight will be a battle of athleticism." Both are supremely athletic, but as I've said all along, I think that GSP does a better job of putting it all together as a mixed martial artist.

I know that the UFC wants us to believe that Koscheck is more than just a wrestler and that his much-improved striking is also a dangerous weapon, but I'm not buying it. In fact, the UFC seems to have had a tough time collecting highlights of Koscheck on his feet. How many times do we need to see Koscheck land a stiff jab to Diego Sanchez' forehead in slow motion??? His highlight reel even shows him throwing the same head kick (that did not connect) to Diego from different angles -- also in slow motion. Diego Sanchez virtually stood in front of Koscheck as if he wanted to box him, and although Koscheck was the aggressor, he didn't seem to overwhelm Diego with his striking.

In the days leading up to the fight, Koscheck seems to be pulling a Rashad Evans - an obvious attempt to show some "personality" by offering dim-witted, obviously fabricated trash talk, which I find both frustrating and amusing.

I think that GSP will come out with his head in the right place and give Koscheck the beating that Diego didn't. Look for an improved guard game from GSP, and don't be surprised by GSP's surprisingly good wrestling. GSP is the better fighter and will show the world that tomorrow night.

Matt's pick: GSP (all day)
LR's pick: GSP by brutal KO.

Joe Stevenson vs. Kurt Pellegrino

Joe Daddy is a Kodiak MMA favorite, and I think that a win over Pellegrino would catapult him to the forefront of the UFC lightweight class. Joe Daddy has had a pretty easy run as a lightweight, overpowering and choking out both Melvin Guillard and Dokonjonosuke Mishima.

Pellegrino is a bad-ass wrestler with great jiu-jitsu who will surely be fighting with friend and Team Armory stablemate Hermes Franca in mind. Pellegrino is a decorated grappler whose strength lies in his takedown abilities, particularly his slams. His stand-up game, however, has been underwhelming in the UFC.

Not only is Joe Daddy himself an accomplished wrestler, but if Pellegrino goes in for a takedown, sticks his head in the wrong place, and gives Joe an opportunity to slap those powerful arms around Pellegrino's neck, we might very well see The Daddy earn a third consecutive submission win by choke. Not that crazy a scenario, actually.

Overall, I think that Joe is a stronger, more experienced fighter with far superior striking. Look for Joe to keep this one on the feet for as long as he can.

Matt's Pick: Joe "Daddy" Stevenson
LR's Pick" Joe "Daddy" Stevenson

Patrick Cote vs. Kendall Grove

I've been waiting for Grove to make a big splash in the middleweight division, and I think this is the fight in which he'll do it.

Cote is definitely a tough striker, but I think that Grove presents a lot of problems for Cote. At 6'6" Grove is a nightmare in the clinch - knees, elbows, punches, everything. Grove has also been working out as part of Xtreme Couture, so we can expect a solid takedown and submission defenses from the big Hawaiian. Cote loves to bang (even though his most recent win over Scott Smith was lackluster) but so does Grove, who attacks with relentless precision.

Stylistically, a forward-charging slugger with decent submission skills, like Cote, is a good match for someone like Grove, who can punish you in a number of ways. And based on how Cote looked against Scott Smith, whose not nearly as complete a striker as Grove, Cote's best chance at victory is a knockout blow.

Matt's Pick: Kendall Grove
LR's Pick: Kendall Grove

Renato "Babalu" Sobral vs. Davis Heath

Simply put, Babalu needs this win. Badly. He's lost his last two UFC fights and did so in similar fashion: he rushed in against powerful strikers and was dropped. Babalu said that if he loses this fight, he's retiring (which I don't entirely believe). Regardless, the 205-lb. division is deeper than ever, and babalu can't affords to slide too far down the food chain.

To his credit, Babalu has defeated Shogun Rua, Jeremy Horn, and Trevor Prangley in one night (as part of a 2003 IFC event), and he once went the distance with Fedor Emelianenko. Babalu's grappling and Brazilian jiu-jitsu is top-notch, while Heath is primarily a boxer. If Heath comes in swinging, looking for the big punch, Babalu will take him apart with his submission game. Heath is no Chuck Liddell, and Babalu (hopefully) knows better than to abandon his jiu-jitsu skills in favor of banging away with a puncher like Heath.

Matt's Pick: Babalu Sobral
LR's Pick: Babalu

Clay Guida vs. Marcus Aurelio

If you don't know about Aurelio, you might be in for quite a treat. "Maximus" is a former Pride Bushido star who has excellent jiu-jitsu, solid takedowns, and a win over Pride lightweight champion Takanori Gomi. He's coming off of two losses, while his Guida, despite losing a bullshit split decision to Tyson Griffin at UFC 72 and another decision loss to Din Thomas before that, seems to have momentum on his side.

Guida is non-stop action and he seems to transition well from one aspect of the fight game to another. Guida is an excellent groundfighter with furious strength and speed and fast hands that he's more than willing to let fly. Guida has faced top competition in Din Thomas and Tyson Griffin, and I think that he'll be more than ready for Aurelio, who hasn't looked too good recently. I think that Guida's athleticism, skill, and conditioning will win it for him.

Matt's Pick: Clay Guida
LR's Pick: Guida by cardio machine decision

Frank Mir vs. Antoni Hardonk

With the recent additions to the UFC heavyweight divsion, it might be hard for some fans to really get excited for this fight. Hardonk is a relative unknown to most UFC fans, Mir has looked unimpressive since the motorcycle accident and surgery that forced him to vacate his heavyweight belt, and this fight has neither title nor top contender implications.

But still, I'd love to see the very talented, very skilled Mir fulfill the promise of his vast potential with an impressive showing. If not, we probably won't be seeing too much more of Frank Mir in the UFC.

Matt's Pick: Frank Mir
LR's Pick: Mir looked ok at weight in, I think his BJJ will still be superior, Mir by submission

Thales Lietes vs. Ryan Jensen

Jensen is a long-time middleweight who has good submission skills and loves to stand and bang. He's enjoyed success in several smaller promotions, but better bring his A-game against a very dangerous Thales Lietes.

Against Pete Sell and Floyd Sword, Lietes has shown that he has the striking, ground-and-pound, and submission game to be a real force in the UFC middleweight division. Lietes' black belt jiu-jitsu skills should ward off any submission attempts from Jensen, and based on how effectively pounded away on a very strong Pete Sell back at UFC 69, I expect Lietes to pick up his third straight UFC win.

Matt's Pick: Thales Lietes
LR's Pick: Thales Leites

This interview was conducted by Matt Kaplan from Kodiak MMA and is a contribution to MMA-analyst.com. Check out his blog!

You can read all of LR's in-depth analysis, and there is a lot of it, at this link here.


UFC 74: Complete Fight Card Analysis and Breakdown

by LR 8/15/2007 6:04:00 AM

We have finished our first complete fight card analysis and breakdown for UFC 74. With any luck, these posts will help you know a little about each fighter, his styles, and techniques in order for you to better gauge their performance at UFC 74. All the predictions are my own, so you can all hound me later if I do poorly. For the record, I have a 14-2 record since UFC 73 in the MMAplayground Season. If you haven't done so already, MMAPlayground is a fantasy MMA game in which you pick fights, and can also do fantasy wagering against about 6,000 other users. It's very fun. I picked Alvin Robinson over Kenny Florian and paid for it, even though Robinson looked great early and then succumbed to Florian's great ju-jitsu. I pick upsets because there is usually at least one on each fight card. It hasn't been the case so much since UFC 73 though. Here's our current breakdown of the event with links to our articles:

Click on each fighter for a Sherdog Fighter Profile displaying record and each fight
UFC 74 Breakdown Articles

Randy "The Natural" Couture vs. Gabriel "Napao" Gonzaga. - Article
Georges "Rush" St. Pierre vs. Josh Koscheck. - Article
Joe "Daddy" Stevenson vs Kurt Pellegrino - Article
Patrick "The Predator" Cote vs. Kendall "Da Spyda" Grove - Article
Renato "Babalu" Sobral vs. David Heath - Article
Marcus "Maximus" Aurelio vs. Clay "The Carpenter" Guida - Article
Alberto Crane vs. Roger "El Matador" Huerta - Article
Antoni Hardonk vs. Frank Mir - Article
Thales Leites vs. Ryan Jensen - Article

Enjoy our articles and hopefully this will bring some intelligent conversations to the MMA communites out there on the Internet through the knowledge we've given you all on some of the up and coming fighters in the UFC, and the veterans of the UFC. If you are a new fan to the UFC, definitely check out the video analysis. It definitely gives great insight into the styles and dynamics of each fighter.

In our upcoming segment, we will be analyzing the fight card for WEC 30. Look forward to that within the next few days.



Research, Statistics, and Predictions on the UFC 74 Fight Card

by LR 8/13/2007 6:02:00 AM

After covering both the Randy Couture vs. Gabriel Gonzaga title bout and the Georges St. Pierre vs. Josh Koscheck contender bout, we are turning our big guns toward the rest of the fight card at UFC 74 in Las Vegas on August 25th. The remaining fights and fighter's profiles courtesy of the fight finder at Sherdog.com are as follows:

Joe "Daddy" Stevenson vs Kurt Pellegrino
Patrick "The Predator" Cote vs. Kendall "Da Spyda" Grove
Renato "Babalu" Sobral vs. David Heath
Marcus "Maximus" Aurelio vs. Clay "The Carpenter" Guida
Alberto Crane vs. Roger "El Matador" Huerta
Antoni Hardonk vs. Frank Mir
Thales Leites vs. Ryan Jensen

Fight breakdowns

That's how our fight card is shaping up after the two big main event fights of the night. Let's start off with the lightweights"

Joe "Daddy" Stevenson vs. Kurt Pellegrino
Joe StevensonStevenson has been considered by some to be a top-notch contender in the lightweight division. After the incident with Sean Sherk testing positive for steroids and possibly being stripped of his title if the CSAC confirms and upholds their decision, Stevenson may be right in the mix to obtain the title after a few good fights. First matchup in his way is that of Kurt Pellegrino. Stevenson brings a wealth of experience to the Octagon, racking up a 27-7 record over the course of his career. His main styles are Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu, Wrestling, and he is able to use them very effectively. His most recent battle was against Melvin Guillard. In their UFC Fight Night 9 encounter, Stevenson proved he had great standup by landing a huge blow to Guillard at the beginning of the fight, and then ground and pounding Guillard for about 10 seconds. Guillard moved to get on his feet and Stevenson got a hold of his neck and choked out Guillard by Guillotine Choke. This fight was overly impressive for Stevenson because Guillard is an excellent striker, had a longer reach, but Stevenson was able to counter and then follow with another huge jab. His feet were quick, and his head movement was dodging Guillard's few punches he did throw. Video of the fight is here. Stevenson's power in his striking has improved, and is now a force to reckon with, but his ground game is superb. He will be a handful for any fighter to take on.

Kurt Pellegrino is a very accomplished Brazilian ju-jitsu fighter. He learned from
Ricardo Almeida, a world famous Brazilian Jiu Jitsu competitor, and he is also very versed in wrestling. Pellegrino is strictly a submission fighter who has recent wins over Nate Mohr, Junior Assuncao, and Jesse Chilton after losing to Drew Fickett at UFC 61. Although he hasn't beaten any top lightweights in the division yet, this fight will be Pellegrino's calling card if he is going to continue up the ranks in the lightweight division. He doesn't seem to have strong standup, so look for him to take this fight to the ground. We may see Stevenson try to keep it up for a bit because he will most likely have the stronger striking of the two. Once on the ground, I'm going to take Stevenson's ju-jitsu over Pellegrino's ju-jitsu. Although Pellegrino has a very good training background, he hasn't beaten the top of the line fighters. He did last until the 3rd round against a very technical submission fighter in Drew Fickett though. I don't see this fight ending instantly unless Stevenson's takedown defense or range keeps Pellegrino from taking him down. I think this fight could easily go the distance, Pellegrino is no slouch and has ample defense against ju-jitsu submissions. I'm going to go out on a limb and say that Stevenson will take this late in the bout by submission.

Final Prediction: Joe "Daddy" Stevenson - Late 2nd round - Mid 3rd round submission/tapout

Patrick Cote vs. Kendall Grove
Patrick Cote comes into this fight sporting a 10-4 record with TKO win over
Jason Day in TKO 29 - Repercussion, and an unanimous decision over Scott Smith in UFC 67. Cote added kickboxing and wrestling to his boxing, and currently studies Brazilian Jiu Jitsu under Fabio Holanda. This may be a surprising matchup. Cote is coming off 2 wins, one being in a different organization other than the UFC with subpar fighters, but he is studying with Brazilian Top Team Canada along side Georges St. Pierre. Fabio Holanda is also a very good instructor, obtaining a black belt in Brazilian ju-jitsu. He has been less than impressive in his last 5-7 fights. He's racked up a few decision victories and submission wins by choke, but has ran into roadblocks against guys like Travis Lutter, Chris Leben, and Joe Doerksen. Cote is susceptible to ju-jitsu submissions and has proven to be unable to handle ju-jitsu fighters such as Lutter. He hasn't faced a decent ju-jitsu opponent in a long time, and this matchup does not look good for Cote.

Kendall Grove is coming off a convincing win over
Alan Belcher. His length and reach is very intimidating in this fight. Not only is it very hard to get inside on him, he is definitely improved on the ground with his ju-jitsu. For a taller guy, it's much easier to sink in triangle chokes with the length the Grove has. He is also on a three fight win streak, and improving in every fight. If his standup has significantly improved, look for this fight to go no longer than 2 rounds. Cote is going to have his work cut out for him trying to get inside on Kendall without getting hit hard, and without getting thrown down and into a ju-jitsu clinic on the ground. I will say Cote can probably last the first round, but as he pushes the pace, I think Cote will make mistakes. He hasn't been fighting the best competition he possibly could be. He also hasn't fought a decent ju-jitsu opponent in a long time. I think the combination of that and Grove's length will be the end for Cote's night.

Final Prediction: Kendall Grove, 2nd round submission/tapout

Renato Sobral vs. David Heath
Sobral, or "Babalu" as he is known to the MMA community is a Brazilian ju-jitsu master in the ring with a 27-7 record, 14 wins via submission.  He is coming off 2 losses in the UFC to Chuck Liddell and Jason Lambert, both via KO/TKO respectively. Sobral has said publicly that if he doesn't win his next bout, he will retire. I believe Sobral definitely does not want to do that. Sobral has had an impressive career, but he is widely known as beating Maricio "Shogun" Rua and Jeremy Horn in the same night at IFC - Global Domination. Sobral lacks knockout power, and that showed against Liddell and Lambert. He wasn't able to utilize his Brazilian ju-jitsu, and without any offensive weapons except for a ground game against guys who weren't allowing him to get them to the ground, he's useless. He has excellent ju-jitsu skills however, and he does have the ability to hang in a fight and use his ju-jitsu to control opponents. He has squeaked out 11 decisions in his career, mostly against devastating ground fighters with some standup ability. Babalu is world renowned for his training techniques and cardio conditioning as well. He shouldn't have any problems with lasting the entire bout. He has fought some of the best in the business, including Fedor Emelianenko in RINGS, to a decision. This definitely shows he has the ability to avoid the huge attacks from the big guys and still stay in the match. Ju-jitsu fighters who are able to do that always have a chance, especially when their opponent tires. Look for Sobral to do this if he can't get a submission early.

Heath is 7-1 in his career in MMA. He studies Boxing and submission wrestling, and has some impressive agility on his feet and some decent submissions. He is definitely more suited for a standup matchup against opponents. He has some pretty heavy hands and is always looking to strike. In a few interviews, he has shown that he is very determined in the striking aspect of his game. I think this may be his downfall in this matchup. Babalu can take a punch, and if he's looking to take Heath down, he's going to do so if Heath is only looking to knock his block off. To Heath's credit, he lost to Ryoto Machida due to decision as a replacement for Forrest Griffin. He was able to ward off Machida's standup, although Machida hasn't convincingly finished a fight in quite some time, winning his last 3 fights via unanimous decision. Heath doesn't have bad grappling skills, but I think if he is determined to just bang out Sobral, this fight will end quickly with a submission victory by Babalu.

Final Prediction: Renato Sobral, 2nd round submission/tapout

Marcus "Maximus" Aurelio vs. Clay "The Carpenter" Guida
This is one of the most talked about matchups on the card and is a pretty even fight on paper. Marcus Aurelio is a Brazilian ju-jitsu fighter with a record of 14-4 in his career. He is most notably known for choking out Takanori Gomi in    PRIDE - Bushido 10. His last two appearances haven't faired so well. He lost a split decision in a rematch with Gomi, and lost to Mitsuhiro Ishida by unanimous decision at     PRIDE - Bushido 11. Aurelio has outstanding ju-jitsu, although it hasn't shown in recent bouts. His bout against Gomi in which Aurelio arm triangle choked out Gomi had some flashes of brilliance from Aurelio. He used a very strong takedown against Gomi after countering a Gomi punch. He was able to control Gomi easily on the ground even as Gomi squirmed to get free by any means possible. Coming off of a two loss streak, Aurelio may have his hands full against the cardio machine that is Clay Guida.

Clay Guida is a 21-8 record fighter with unbelievable cardio conditioning. He recently came off a loss against Tyson Griffin in which many fans in the MMA community felt Guida won. Guida has some fierce strength and is definitely able to throwdown opponents with some huge force. He also has that extraordinary conditioning in his back pocket in this matchup. Guida is also a huge fan favorite in this fight. So, it comes down to a few factors. Can Guida really avoid Aurelio's ju-jitsu game? My gut says No. Guida may be able to fiercely throw around Aurelio, but ju-jitsu is an artform when someone is pushing you down and trying to pound you. The best guys in MMA can reverse the advantage in their favor even in the most dire situation on the ground. But Aurelio has had a poor showing in his last two fights, and I'm wondering if this is the beginning of the end for Aurelio. Guida is an unbelievably tough test for a first fight in the Octagon, and I doubt he is ready for Guida's intensity and conditioning.

This is the toughest prediction on the card. By the numbers, Aurelio has fought more top notch competition in his weight class, but my gut tells me Guida's tenacity may overwhelm Aurelio during the fight. If Guida can be aggressive and not make the mistake of sinking into Aurelio's arms, I think he can tweak out a decision win. I feel this fight may go much like the Ishida fight. Guida can overwhelm Aurelio and win this.

Final Prediction: Two way road, safe bet is Marcus Aurelio, but on a limb.. Clay Guida by Unanimous Decision.

Alberto Crane vs. Roger "El Matador" Huerta
Filing down the card, this fight is somewhat intriguing to me. Huerta is a 18-1 fighter with half his wins by TKO/KO. His main style is Greco-Roman wrestling. The UFC has been feeding this "poster" boy of the UFC a lot of lower-level fighters. He has yet to break into the top of the lightweight division, and nobody can really point to why. UFC 74 is no exception. Huerta will face off against
Alberto Crane, a black belt in Brazilian ju-jitsu with an 8-0 record with 7 submission victories. Could this be a big upset? It's possible. Huerta had a very poor showing against Doug Evans in the 1st round of his last matchup. He was nearly submitted and Evans had Huerta's back for most of the first round. This was a bit of proof that there were holes in Huerta's guard and game. Crane has much more superior ground skills than Evans, and I'm looking at this matchup as a possible upset of Huerta. Crane's credentials include:

Main Titles:
Explosion Champion (MMA) (2004) - USA
Ring of Fire Champion (MMA) (2004) - USA
King Of The Cage – Light Weight Champion (MMA) (2003) - USA
ZST Japan Superfight (MMA) (2003) - Japan
Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu world Champion (2002)
2 times Brazilian Teams champion (1999 and 2002)
Silver medalist on the 2000 Jiu-Jitsu Pan Ams championships.
Silver medalist on the 1999 mundials championships.
 


This is definitely an impressive resume for a BJJ black belt. I'm going to predict a Huerta victory as a pick, but if you are going to put a bit of money down on this fight, Crane is a definite good bet to at least play some money on. I'm going to stay away from the upset pick purely on the fact I haven't seen any tape on Crane. The tape I have seen is against sub-par fighters that he easily disposed of. I will say that Crane was tenacious in some of his fights, and I think that's a good trait when going in against Huerta. I see two things possibly happening. Huerta catches Crane with a big punch, or Crane dominating Huerta's wrestling on the ground. Which will happen first?

Final Prediction: Safe bet is Huerta by 1st/2nd round KO/TKO but...
UPSET PICK OF THE EVENT: Crane by submission, 2nd round
 

Hardonk/Mir and Leites/Jensen breakdowns tomorrow....

                                           




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