UFC 83: Serra vs. St. Pierre Preview & Predictions

by LR 4/17/2008 3:18:00 PM

The UFC makes its debut in Canada with an already sold out event in Montreal at the Bell Centre on Saturday night. The featured bout matches up Matt “The Terror” Serra against Georges “Rush” St. Pierre in a highly anticipated rematch  of their UFC 69 battle that saw Matt Serra upset St. Pierre. Rich Franklin will make his return to the Octagon after his second loss to UFC Middleweight champion Anderson Silva. He'll take on a venerable Travis Lutter who will test Franklin's submission defense. Other bouts scheduled include Canadian Kalib Starnes vs. Nate “The Rock” Quarry, Mac Danzig vs. Mark Bocek, Michael Bisping vs. Charles McCarthy, and Jason MacDonald vs. Joe “El Dirte” Doerkson, along with a slew of undercard bouts that are sure to entertain us. Let's take a look at the card.

Main Event: Georges “Rush” St. Pierre vs. Matt “The Terror” Serra
UFC Welterweight title bout

Oddly enough, Georges St. Pierre comes into this bout as a huge favorite while Serra once again remains the heavy underdog. St. Pierre's destruction of Matt Hughes at UFC 79 on short notice was stunning in the capacity of being unbelievably dominating. The fact that he can outwrestle any fighter in the weight class is a testament to his training regiment and work ethic. Wrestlers with plenty of credentials to back up their “smack” continue to fall to St. Pierre's superior skills. Pierre also has dynamic striking that is unparalleled in the division, but he has shown weakness in the standup at times, namely against his opponent, Matt Serra.

Serra's abilities are underrated by many fans of the sport. He has very good jiu-jitsu skills on the ground, and his strength can become a huge factor as the fight progresses. He's very tough to defeat by a finish, and he's never been submitted in MMA competition. I firmly believe it'll be a good test for St. Pierre if it becomes a chess match on the ground. The x-factor is Serra's heavy hands. He has some decent striking skills for a smaller welterweight, and with power behind them, we've seen what they can do against St. Pierre.

Bottom line: St. Pierre should win this fight within the first three rounds. He has great power, athleticism, dynamic striking, range, reach, and is coming off a stunning performance against Matt Hughes. Serra definitely has a shot on his feet, but I don't believe he can submit St. Pierre on the floor. Serra has great submission defense, so I'd stray away from St. Pierre defeating him there, but I do believe he can work some wrestling skills to open up the striking.

Leland's Prediction: Georges St. Pierre via TKO, Round 3

Rich “Ace” Franklin vs. Travis Lutter

Rich Franklin is looking to get back on the track back to another title shot. How many title shots can one have after being destroyed the previous two tries? We don't know, but Franklin is still a formidable opponent for anyone trying to make a run at Anderson Silva. He has good power, decent striking, big blow ground and pound, and he's not half bad on the ground either. He's a well-rounded fighter, but he isn't great in any one thing.

Lutter, on the other hand, is a great jiu-jitsu fighter on the ground, but he lacks the powerful hands that Franklin possesses. The biggest problem for Lutter is getting through Franklin's submission defense, a defense that has helped Franklin remain unbeaten by a submission throughout his 25 fight career.

Franklin should take this one. He has fantastic submission defense, and has the hands to defeat Lutter on his feet or on the ground. Franklin has taken on great grapplers in the past, and has always came through with his crushing ground and pound.

Leland's Prediction: Rich Franklin via TKO, Round 2

Michael Bisping vs. Charles “Chainsaw” McCarthy

More...


Ultimate Fighter Finale 6: A Night of Beginnings and Endings

by John Mckiernan 12/9/2007 8:06:00 AM

Mr Sunshine Vegas Blog (Source)The Ultimate Fighter Six Finale was a night of beginnings, and a night of endings.  The sun set on the UFC mainstay ‘Big’ John McCarthy.  Easily the most recognizable and high-profile referee the sport has seen, McCarthy officiated the main event and final match of his Hall-of-fame tenure.  In opposition to the loss of the greatest ref of all-time, The Pearl at the Palms played host to the start of Mac Danzig’s (17-4-1) days in the Octagon, a career he’ll begin as the TUF-6 winner.  Roger Huerta (20-1-1) began a new chapter in his story as well with the first of many possible wins against top-flight competition.  Following a rear-naked choke submission of Clay Guida (22-6), McCarthy raised the arm of ‘El Matador’ in victory; something it appears Big John has done for the last time.

From the opening bout the night provided excellent fights filled with action.  This installment of the TUF finals delivered where UFC 78 and the sixth season itself proved an inability to do so.  The night had decisive victories, drag-out wars, submissions and KOs; all capitalized by the sudden comeback win in the feature fight by Huerta.   The average class of fighter may not have been equal to some of the stacked PPV cards we have seen recently, but the action couldn’t have been much better; and to think…this was free, not forty bucks.

Entering the night much was made of Huerta’s lack of experience against upper-echelon competition.  For marketing purposes (they’re overt) Huerta has been pushed by the promotion in an attempt to further its appeal in the Hispanic community, specifically in our fight-loving neighbor Mexico.  Clay Guida represents as near a stylistic likeness to Huerta as there is. The major difference between the two; outside of hair-style; lies in  Guida’s track record of tough opponents. Although Guida has had mixed success against other world-class 155lbers, he has never looked outclassed. Huerta was certainly in for his toughest test yet, and he got all he could handle.

Let me say here that it looks like I’m in need of that forty bones I mentioned earlier. I bet against Huerta in tonight’s match and its time to pay up.  Through two rounds it didn’t look like the 24 year-old Minnesotan would leave the cage with his perfect UFC record intact, and I thought my money was safe.  But for the second time in six fights, a knee by Huerta all but ended a fight.  In the opening minute of the third round, Guida shot in for a takedown and was caught on the chin with the blast.  The Chicago-native was visibly rocked by the blow, staggering forward and eating glancing punches while desperately groping for a takedown.  Guida executed the takedown after a few seconds of anxious pursuit. Once on the ground Huerta was able to reverse, take Guida’s back and lock in the rear-naked choke without much resistance just 31 seconds into the final frame.

It was a sudden, sudden ending to a fight that had been dominated by ‘The Carpenter’ for ten minutes.  Huerta was on the defensive from the outset when Guida lifted the phenom onto his shoulders and planted him onto the mat.   The next nine minutes saw takedown after takedown as the seasoned vet out wrestled the younger Huerta.  More surprisingly was the visible frustration on Huerta’s face late in the second as Guida began to get the best of the action on the feet, something even Clay didn’t expect.  It was that frustration fueled by the urgency of being down two rounds to none that put away Guida in the third.

While Roger endured the toughest test of his career, Season Six’s Mac Danzig barely broke a sweat.  From the outset of the show, the 27 year old PRIDE veteran appeared head and shoulders above the rest of the competition.  Danzig was no secret to the MMA community before being selected to participate in the show.  He could have easily been traditionally added to the Zuffa stable of fighters and thrown into the mix. But more lucratively he was granted a slot on the reality show, and will now certainly boast a following as a result of the exposure.

A true lightweight (a la Joe Stevenson), Danzig overcame the glaring size advantage in the championship bout and dispatched Tommy Speer (9-2) with relatively no effort.  The two fighters couldn’t be any more different.  Danzig is a practicing vegan in L.A., Speer a dairy farmer in a Minnesota town of 800.  Despite ten fights, the brutish Speer was a relative rookie to the big scene, while the much smaller and technically sound Danzig had been tested. 

Danzig repeatedly made reference to his nerves entering the fight, but Speer was the one who looked to have a gut full of butterflies.  Predictably, he rushed Mac looking for the takedown only to have the elder fighter put Speer on his back.  Once there, it was all downhill for the pride of Elgin, MN.   Danzig smoothly secured mount and battered the larger Speer with punches and elbows until he gave up his back.  In textbook fashion, Danzig applied the rear-naked and launched his promising UFC career.

While Danzig and Huerta will receive the attention and accolades on the heels of their equally stellar performances, McCarthy is just as deserving; if not more.  The man who coined ‘Lets Get it On’ way back in 1994 (!) resigned from his p\ksition with the UFC to become an analyst for The Fight Network.   With 535 bouts officiated, Big John stands alone as an official, and is without a doubt a timeless MMA icon.  The progression the sport has undergone since UFC 2 when McCarthy made his debut is immense, and the view the former LA police officer has had throughout is unique.  I would love to see Big John write a book on his career and what he has seen; it’d be a fascinating read.  We here at MMA-Analyst would like to say thank you for being the best at your trade for over a decade and keeping the sport safe, enabling it to reach the heights it has.  We wish you the best Big John, we know you’ll be great.  The UFC will go on without you, but will never be able to replace you.

The rest of the card

The broadcast began with a rematch from this season between Ben Saunders (5-0-2) and Dan Barrera (1-1).  The Jeet-Kune-Do practicing Saunders got the best of Barrera the first time around, winning a controversial decision over the Team Hughes fighter.  Barrera took down Saunders over and over again, but the long and lanky guard of the 6’3” American Top Team fighter staved off the ground and pound of Barrera.  By the end of the match, Saunders was dominating the one-dimensional Barrera and took home a unanimous decision victory.  At his size, Saunders looks very promising.  His range on the feet is superior to anyone else in the division, and his guard looked outstanding; albeit it was against a ‘green’ Barrera.  Barrera had virtually no offense throughout, and looked to me like a Matt Hamill without explosiveness and comparable athleticism.

In the second match, George Sotiropoulos (8-2) made short work of fellow cast mate Billy Miles (2-2).  Miles charged the Australian from the bell with wild punches.  Sotiropoulos rebounded from his KO loss to Speer in the semi-finals on the show and choked out Miles by way of RNC three minutes in.   Miles just looked completely outclassed on the ground and in the fighters’ demeanor.  It was reminiscent of those desert spiders that just lay in wait and snatch their pray.

Troy Mandaloniz (3-1) put Richie Hightower (7-2) to sleep with a jab late in the first round of their bout.  The fight was a see-saw slugfest with Mandaloniz receiving as much damage as he was dishing out.  Hightower was too predictable on the feet, continuously throwing the same 1 – 2 left right combo.  The Hawaiian native timed Hightower with a jab that landed spot on the chin and followed up on the collapsed fighter with vicious hammerfists, forcing a stoppage.  Mandaloniz showed power and a good chin.  Those Hawaii boys sure can fight, can’t they?

A case could be made that the fight of the night belonged to Jon Koppenhaver (5-1) and Jared Rollins (6-4).  The two shared tension during the show, and the story-line came to a conclusion with Koppenhaver pounding out a TKO win in the third.  The fight was back and forth on both the feet and the floor.  I had Koppenhaver narrowly winning the first round with scattered GnP.  Rollins managed to cut Koppenhaver on the head with elbows that appeared to be borderline illegal (downward strike).  From then on out, the blood was effusive.  Rollins and the much younger Koppenhaver were drenched in it for the rest of the bout.  Just as Rollins appeared to seal the win with a big knee and consequent GnP, Koppenhaver combined a kimura with a sweep and reversed position.  One huge elbow and five right hands later Rollins was rendered defenseless.  Both of these guys will be back, they put on a great show.  The crowd gave a standing ‘O’ before the third round started. That pretty much ensures their return.  Again, this was a bloody match that left Koppenhaver looking like he had a cheesy fake tan, Frankie Avalon style.

Matt Arroyo (3-1) submitted John Kolosci (8-5) with an armbar in the first round.  It appeared only a matter of time before Kolosci became a submission victim for the third time in as many fights.  Arroyo slapped on four or five submission attempts before he nabbed the win.  Arroyo appears to be very talented and possibly the forgotten member of the cast. I look for him to make waves moving forward.

In the two dark matches, Roman Mitichyan (4-1) won by ankle lock over Dorian Price (7-3) in just 23 seconds and Jonathan Goulet (21-9) RNC’d Paul Georgieff (5-2) late in the first.



Ultimate Fighter Finale Roundtable: The extensive preview of TUF Finale 6

by LR 12/7/2007 4:30:00 AM

Answers.com (Source)The Ultimate Fighter Season 6 has finally come to an end and we now have the finalized fight card for the Ultimate Fighter Finale on Saturday night from the Palms in Las Vegas, Nevada. The featured main event is a barn burner. Clay "The Carpenter" Guida will be taking on Roger Huerta in Huerta's first major test to begin gaining ground to reach the top of the division. In the TUF Finale matchup to win the UFC Contract, Mac Danzig will be taking on Tommy Speer. Favorite George Sotiropolous lost to Speer in the semifinal, but will have a chance to showcase his skill against a green fighter in Billy Miles. The "TUF" matchups include Jared "J-Rock" Rollins taking on John "War Machine" Koppenhaver, Richie Hightower will stand with Troy Mandaloniz, Roman Mitichyan vs. Dorian Price, Matt Arroyo vs. John Kolosci, and Ben Saunders vs. Dan Barrera. The lone dissenter to the "TUF" format is Paul Georgieff. He will take on Canadian Jonathan Goulet. It's shaping up to be a fairly decent event, although some of the matchups look to be one-sided. Joe Schmitt and Leland Roling make their picks also for the event, let's take a look at the card.

Main Event Matchup
Clay "The Carpenter" Guida vs. Roger "El Matador" Huerta

It's hard for me to remain heavily unbiased in this assessment since Clay Guida is from the heart of Chicago and a die-hard Chicago Bears fan, even though our Bears are terrible this season. I will, however, seek to look thoroughly at this matchup.

Clay Guida (22-8) is the type of fighter that never quits. Highly regarded for his cardio that is often compared to a machine, Guida presses the pace and never seems to gas out during his battles. Guida is also one of the toughest UFC fighters in the Lightweight division, taking on some of the UFC's best fight after fight. His most recent win was over Marcus Aurelio at UFC 74 by split decision in a somewhat tactical affair. He also has a fairly impressive win over Josh Thomson. He lost to Tyson Griffin and Din Thomas at previous UFC events, and has taken on the such fighters as Gilbert Melendez, Bart Palaszewski, and Tristan Yunker in the past. NBC Sports (Source)

Admittedly, Guida is perfectly honest in breaking down his own game. He has stated in past interviews that he doesn't consider himself a complete fighter yet and that he still has a lot of work to do in his wrestling game and striking game. Specifically, the pre-fight interviews at his Strikeforce battle with Gilbert Melendez stating these comments. This is a good self-assessment, although he does seem to be improving in some aspects of MMA.

There is one glaring weakness that was apparent against Aurelio was Guida's striking. Although he was very effective when dodging blows and ducking under them to explode with strikes of his own, his pre-emptive strikes on Aurelio were looping and for the most part, slow. His biggest strength has always been his aggressiveness and relentless attack. Specifically, putting his opponent to the mat and pounding him out with his strength is the best style he has.

Roger Huerta (19-1-1) is your typical UFC made cookie cutter fighter. He's been made to beat the division, and be a darling to the media that the UFC wants to attract. He has an interesting backstory that includes being adopted. It makes for a story, but that's not all there is to Roger Huerta.

Huerta has some impressive striking ability and a decent chin to boot. He has some fast hands and doesn't seem to loop nearly as much as Guida has in the past. His style is mostly aggressive movement into the body and putting his opponent down with strikes and pounding on him, or trying to grab top mount on the ground. As we saw in his battle with Alberto Crane, he has very good submission defense.

There are some weaknesses to his game. Doug Evans came out at the TUF 5 Finale and nearly had Huerta early in the first round after getting his back. It is apparent that Huerta has a weakness on the ground, but he can also be caught by a premier striker because he tends to brawl. This could be seen heavily in the Leonard Garcia fight, although he won most of the exchanges. More...



UFC Fight Night 11 Preview: Complete Analysis and Predictions

by LR 9/17/2007 7:50:00 PM

The UFC storms into the Palms in Las Vegas fresh off a spectacular UFC 75 event that featured the unification of the Light Heavyweight Championship,  a destruction of one of the best PRIDE Heavyweight strikers in the MMA world,  and a few surprises from some up and coming fighters such as Houston Alexander and Marcus Davis. What can we expect from the UFC for this Fight Night card on Wednesday night? From the looks of it, we can definitely look forward to such matchups as Kenny Florian vs. Din Thomas and Terry Martin vs. Chris Leben. Also, we will have a number of appearances from The Ultimate Fighter 5 contestants Gray Maynard and Cole Miller as well as the TUF 5 Winner, Nate Diaz. The UFC has put some solid fights on a card that is the precursor to The Ultimate Fighter 6 Season and UFC 76 on Saturday. Let’s take an in-depth look at the UFN 11 fight card.

The Breakdown: Kenny Florian (6-3) vs. Din Thomas (20-6)


Kenny Florian comes into this bout with a 6-3 record, recently coming off an impressive win over Alvin Robinson at UFC 73. In my initial analysis of that particular fight, I chose Alvin Robinson to win based on his aggressive style and power. I was wrong. One of my only bad picks of the year, Florian showed a definite improvement by neutralizing Robinson’s aggressive style.
 

Florian is primarily a Brazilian ju-jitsu specialist with a black belt in ju-jitsu from Roberto Maia of Gracie Barra ju-jitsu in Boston.  Florian is best known for his contestant role on The Ultimate Fighter Season 1 shows. He was able to make it to the final to face Diego Sanchez, but was stopped in the first round due to strikes. After the Finale, Florian rattled off three consecutive wins over Alex Karalexis, Kit Cope, and Sam Stout. Although the competition of those fighters wasn’t high quality, Florian was coming up as a full-time MMA fighter now. His skills were tested and he was able to easily use his ground game to really excel against Stout and Cope. Florian earned a shot at the vacant Lightweight UFC Championship title against Sean Sherk and was overcome with Sherk’s ground and pound style. He has recently had two consecutive wins, and is now back in the position to earn another title shot if he can secure a win at UFN 11.

Din Thomas is also a very strong ground fighter, having a black belt in ju-jitsu under Ricardo Liborio. Din trains out of American Top Team, responsible for some of the most notable names in MMA such as Gesias Calvancanti, Jeff Monson, Denis Kang, Marcus Aurelio, Wilson Gouveia, and more. Din is also well known for his stint on The Ultimate Fighter 4 in which he lost to Chris Lytle in their semifinal bout by unanimous decision.

Din comes into this bout with an impressive 20-6 record. He has notable wins over Jens Pulver, Matt Serra, and his most recent, Clay Guida and Jeremy Stephens. Some may remember the Matt Serra fight as being a ridiculous controversy that resulted in one judge scoring the bout in the wrong columns on his scoresheet, declaring Serra the winner at the event. Later, Din was declared the winner once the mistake was found. He has had some discouraging losses in his career prior to The Ultimate Fighter series, such as losses to Amar Suloev, Caol Uno, and BJ Penn at UFC 32. Since the show, he has looked fairly impressive in the cage, and is really in the same boat as Florian. UFC contracts definitely help the competitiveness of both guys since it will allow them to focus more on their MMA skillset rather than other jobs to make ends meet. This has been a point that many MMA fans have brought up when bringing up the skillsets of fighters recently coming off the reality series.

Styles Breakdown

Din Thomas is out of American Top Team, so expect some very good skills in the Octagon. He has plenty of great fighters down there to really practice with as far as ju-jitsu goes. He’s very capable of throwing huge punches to stop the takedown attempts from Florian, just like against Matt Serra. He has a vicious ground and pound, and also likes to fake the punches to take the back when an opponent turns to dodge or grab the arms. He’s also very strong and can easily lift his opponent and slam him to the ground. His ground game is also something Florian will also have to be aware of.  Again, his strength plays into this since he can power out of holds and maintain a grip and submit you with his strength.

Florian has excellent ju-jitsu and is definitely going to be resorting to it in this battle. Florian loves to allow his opponent to push him, but enabling him to use throws and clinches to throw his opponent to the ground. His standup game is rather limited as he didn’t show much of it in the Alvin Robinson fight. Florian uses leg kicks to weaken his opponents and go for the takedowns. That’s really going to be the basis of his standup in this bout. Swinging with Din Thomas is not in his best interest. His best knockout power comes from his ground and pound using his elbows. He landed a good amount of elbows against Alvin Robinson and opened a huge cut on Alex Karalexis’s head with those same elbows to end that bout. If he can get Din Thomas down, he will still be fighting to avoid submission attempts from Din. Look for his elbows to come into play on the ground if it gets there.

Sizing it Up

This is a very tough one to call. Florian and Thomas stack up well with each other in the ju-jitsu arena, but their main difference is the standup game. Even when Florian fought Alvin Robinson, he did get hurt in the standup and took the fight to the ground where Robinson could not excel. That won’t be the case in this fight. Din could hurt Florian, and resorting to the ground game may also just make Florian tired or he could potentially get submitted. I think Din has a more all-around game that Florian, but I believe Florian’s ju-jitsu is much better than Din’s ground skills. If I had to choose, I’d pick Thomas via 1st or 2nd round KO/TKO. This fight could easily go to either guy, or a decision, but I see Din using his powerful strength and standup to win it. 

The Breakdown: Chris Leben (16-4) vs. Terry Martin (16-2)

This is quite possibly a candidate for knockout of the night. Both fighters are known for throwing huge leather. Leben is coming off some horribly lackluster performances and Terry Martin is coming off some spectacular knockout wins, a recent run in with the Chicago Police Department, and a whole lot of smack talk at Patrick Cote. This should be a great striker’s matchup

 
Chris “The Crippler” Leben is best known for his knockout style of fighting. He was featured on the first season of the Ultimate Fighter as an outspoken cast member who drank himself retarded. Leben’s antics led to a bout with Josh Koscheck, and he was beaten via unanimous decision. Leben was very upset about the decision and fuming over Koscheck’s tactics of holding him down and not really pushing the fight. He felt Koscheck was trying to win safely. Leben returned to the competition after Nate Quarry was injured during the competition. This time around, Leben lost to Kenny Florian due to a large cut that opened up on Leben’s eye area. At the finale, Leben ended up fighting Jason Thacker, the teammate who had his bed pissed all over by Leben. Leben stopped him in the first round due to strikes and Leben’s career continued.

Leben has some notable wins over Mike Swick, Patrick Cote, and Jorge Santiago. Leben has been the issue of controversy lately. He pulled out in a highly anticipated rematch with Mike Swick, never really giving any reason for the pullout. Swick was then pitted against Goulet, but pulled out due to injury. It is perceived around the community that Leben dodged Swick due to Swick’s recent success in the UFC. 

Terry Martin comes into this bout with a 16-2 record, sporting 10 knockouts and 5 submissions in his career.  His first two stints in the UFC ended badly for the brawler from Chicago, IL. He lost to James Irvin via a spectacular flying knee and to Jason Lambert via strikes in the second round. He took a fight at WEC 24 against Keith Berry and started a four win streak beating Berry, Jason Guida, Jorge Rivera, and Ivan Salaverry. Although not a star studded cast of fights, Ivan Salaverry was no slouch in his most recent fight.

Martin has shown to have some of the heavier hands in the Middleweight division. He has been susceptible to the punches as well, but with only two losses in his career, he’s definitely making waves in the UFC. He also has some underrated ground skills and his aggressive style can force opponents to the ground allowing him to pounce on them at will.

Styles Breakdown


Having seen both of Terry Martin and Chris Leben’s previous bouts, I can safely say that this is a battle of similar styles. Both Leben and Martin are straight bangers who will be looking to come out and knock the other one out. Leben, however, has had some less than great performances in his previous two fights. The fight that stands out the most in my mind is the Kalib Starnes fight. Leben was very hesitant and allowed Kalib to really push the pace early and land some decent shots. Leben missed most of his strikes for much of the match, and even when Starnes was visibly gassed, Leben didn’t push the pace and try to end the fight in the third to change the outcome. His standup was severely lacking during that fight.

 

Terry Martin has had some spectacular fights as of late. His aggression has been one of his top attributes that has really overcome most of his opponents as of late. Ivan Salaverry was revered as a pretty good grappler and boxer. Martin basically ran over Salaverry and straight knocked him out. Jorge Rivera was knocked out in :14 seconds flat. Obviously, Terry Martin’s standup game is very dangerous. What happens when you pit a lackluster standup guy who has shown potential previously that he can be at a level that is competitive and he’s hungry to show the fans his real skillset against a brawler with huge knockout power like Terry Martin? Fireworks.

Sizing it Up

To me, this is a battle of what’s happened lately. Martin is coming off some spectacular knockout wins and has shown some aggressive poundings, great takedown and ground n’ pound tactics, and is overall, a pitbull in the Octagon. Leben has lately been rather sluggish, stood tentative in the Octagon, and hasn’t aggressively pushed the pace. I’m looking to see Martin run over Leben and possibly either ground and pound him or catch Leben early.

Rest of the Card

Nate Diaz (6-2) vs. Junior Assuncao (5-2)

A tough bout to call, Nate Diaz, the brother of Nick “Tough as damn nails” Diaz as I like to call him, will be looking to win his second bout in the UFC after beating Manny Gamburyan at the TUF 5 Finale via referee stoppage due to Manny’s dislocated shoulder. Nate will be coming into this fight most likely in much better condition, and most likely will have better standup as both his brother and himself have been training with Luisito Espinosa, former WBA and WBC Boxing Champion. Junior is well known brother of Rafael Assuncao, a 11-1 MMA fighter with a notable win of Joe Lauzon and a distance fight with Jeff Curran losing via decision. He has a brown belt in ju-jitsu that trumps Diaz’s purple belt at the moment. Although Junior has the edge in the ju-jitsu, Nate’s size and reach will be tough for Assuncao to counter. Look for a late submission by Diaz, 2nd or 3rd round.

Pete Sell (7-3) vs. Nate Quarry (8-2)

The battle of two aggressive strikers with weak chins. Quarry was knocked out by Rich Franklin at UFC 56, and then taking a long break from MMA. Quarry does have a win over Pete Sell by TKO :42 seconds into the first round. He also defeated Shone Carter at UFC 53 with some ferocious striking. Sell is a ju-jitsu specialist with some boxing and muay thai training. He holds a brown belt under Matt Serra, and has trained in striking with Ray Longo. Sell’s big upset win over Phil Baroni catapulted him for a short period, but then he was beaten by Nate Quarry in his next fight. Sell is coming off a loss to Thales Leites, but he has been fighting actively in the UFC. Quarry has had a two year layoff, and he strictly is a freestyle fighter whereas Sell has some skill on the ground and knockout power. I am going to go against the community assumption here and pick Pete Sell, first round surprise.

Thiago Alves (11-3) vs. Kuniyoshi Hironaka (11-3)

A very interesting matchup between Alves and Hironaka. Many people don’t know who Hironaka is, and that’s what makes this fight somewhat unpredictable. Hironaka is most notable for losing to Jon Fitch at UFC 64 by unanimous decision. He has notable wins over “Charuto” Verissimo and Nick Diaz, but to be honest, I’ve never been impressed with Verissimo’s MMA skills and he won by split decision over Diaz. Mainly a ju-jitsu fighter, he has a lot of fights that have gone to decision and isn’t known for being a finisher. Alves, on the other hand, is known as a finisher. In fact, he’s finished 3 out of his last 5 opponents by TKO/KO. He does have losses to Jon Fitch and Spencer Fisher over the last two years. He also trains out of American Top Team, which really makes me want to go with Alves and he’s coming off a suspension for using diuretic for weight loss purposes. I think he’s going to be tenacious coming back into the Octagon. Alves by 2nd round TKO/KO, but I don’t doubt this fight going to a decision.

Leonard Garcia (10-2) vs. Cole Miller (12-2)

To me, this is a clear cut win by Garcia. He went to decision with the always aggressive Roger Huerta in his first UFC fight, and dominated Alan Berube in the TUF 5 Finale. Garcia, I believe, trains out of Greg Jackson’s camp as well. Cole Miller has some fairly unimpressive fights in his 12-2 career, but he did take Shooto fighter Takeshi Inoue to decision. Not bad at all. Miller also did fairly well against Lightweight Joe Lauzon in the TUF 5 series, but eventually lost due to a controversial blow to the back of the head that he didn’t really recover from. Garcia is a fairly good submission fighter and I think he’ll come out aggressive and push the fight to the ground. Garcia by 2nd or 3rd round submission.

Dustin Hazelett (9-3) vs. Jonathan Goulet (19-8)

Back in 04’ and 05’, Goulet was impressive with wins over Jay Hieron, John Alessio, Tony Fryklund, and Shonie Carter. As of late, however, he hasn’t been as great as he once was. After his loss to Josh Koscheck, he fought in some smaller organizations, racking up a 3-1-1 record since the Koscheck bout. Hazelett is on a 2 fight win streak, and loss to the very good Tony DeSouza at UFC: Final Chapter in October 2006. He’s a straight submission fighter, and Goulet is a little bit of both. It’s a tough call, and Hazelett’s latest performances make me want to pick him, but I think Goulet’s experience is going to shine in this bout. I’m going with Goulet by decision.

Luke Cummo (5-4) vs. Edilberto de Oliveria (8-1-1)

Luke Cummo is a product of Team Serra and specifically a ju-jitsu and Muay Thai fighter. He’s been ran through the gauntlet in his career with matches against Joe Stevenson, Josh Koscheck, and Jonathan Goulet, losing all by decision. Luke’s ground skills and fairly decent MMA game enabled him to last against those top level fighters. I believe that this fight will be a definite builder for him. Oliveria comes into this bout with one loss to Paul Taylor at UFC 70. Taylor is the man who nearly KO’d Marcus Davis at UFC 75. Oliveria is out of Brazil and has a majority of is fights in Minotauro Fights MMA organization in Brazil. His one stint in the UFC was a loss and I think this will continue. Luke Cummo via decision.

Gray Maynard (2-0) vs. Joe Veres (4-1)

Maynard is an all-American wrestler who placed 11th at the NCAA Wrestling Championships in 2003. He’s best known for his Ultimate Fighter 5 appearance and subsequent climb to the semifinals, only to lose to Nate Diaz. He has great wrestling, takedowns and great ground and pound. He is also training with Xtreme Couture, which may solidify some decent standup and clinch tactics. Veres is relatively unknown. According to MMAJunkie’s interview on July 24th, Veres is a 2x Ohio HS Division I State Qualifier, placed in the tournament, captain of the Ashland University wrestling squad, 3x NCAA Division II All-American, 4x qualifier, and he’s trained with Hammerhouse. He’s going to have some fairly good wrestling skills, but will Maynard’s wrestling trump Veres wrestling. I think so. And with the training from Xtreme Couture, look for Maynard to ground and pound win this one in the second round.  

Sources include Wikipedia.org, Sherdog.com Fight Finder. Other sources are cited in the text of this preview.





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