Jon Fitch says GSP is afraid of getting knocked out, so what?

by LR 3/4/2008 4:29:00 AM

In another surprising quote from a fighter on the outside looking in, Jon Fitch was quoted as saying this little nugget:

"The thing I've noticed the most about St. Pierre in his last performances is that he's become a wrestler. Since getting knocked out (by Matt Serra), he's been unwilling to stand and trade. He had an easy win over Matt Hughes in their second fight standing, and, the third fight, for some reason, decided to take the hard road and decide to outwrestle a wrestler. To me, that shows he's afraid to get knocked out."

There are a couple of things that Fitch mentions that would baffle a rocket scientist in logic. First and foremost, isn't the point of mixed martial arts to win your bouts against any and all opponents? Certainly, a fighter doesn't wake up and say "I think I'll aim to be 20-6 in my career". Fitch's point about GSP's third fight is odd considering GSP won the fight. He not only won the fight, he dominated Matt Hughes in Hughes's own world. Why stand with Hughes when it was obvious that GSP would be defending takedowns the entire fight if he had done so?

Also, Fitch's observations of GSP's last few fights is fairly obvious to any MMA fan who watches GSP fight. This isn't a revelation to anyone. GSP has managed to win most of his recent bouts using his wrestling ability over his striking skills. He still won in fairly impressive fashion. If Fitch really believes that GSP's newfound skills to take opponents down will favor him, I think he's in for a rude awakening. GSP's wrestling skills have overwhelmed world class wrestlers, and I don't think Fitch can handle GSP.

Fitch also mentions that fact that GSP may be afraid to get knocked out. My concern for Fitch is that I highly doubt he is the man to strike fear in GSP on his feet. Fitch's standup was subpar against Wilson, and Wilson was clearly the better striker during the fight. Fitch didn't present any real danger on the feet, and he'll present even less of a threat standing against a dynamic striker in GSP.

Just another reason why I won't be betting on Jon Fitch when he takes on Georges St. Pierre.

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UFC 82 Preview & Predictions

by LR 2/29/2008 6:08:00 AM

UFC 82 will be an event to remember, or a borefest of decisions, it’s hard to say what’s going to happen in many of the bouts on the card. Many fans are claiming some huge lopsided victories while many others are seeing decisions galore litter the event’s results as we head into Saturday night. Hopefully, we won’t see another Strikeforce at the Dome card. Here’s our picks for UFC 82.

Main Event: Anderson Silva vs. Dan Henderson
At Stake: UFC Middleweight Title

People are starting to call this a pick’em fight, and I’d have to agree. This is one of the toughest fights to mull over due to the stylistic matchup between the two, but also due to the historical dominance of both fighters.

Silva has simply crushed everything in his path. He made Rich Franklin into a rag doll, and simply used his Muay Thai skillset to strike with him, close the distance, clinch, and then set up massive head shots with his knees. That gameplan will have to change if he wants to defeat Dan Henderson.

Henderson’s strength in this fight will be his wrestling. Greco-Roman control will be the key to getting Silva to the floor where Henderson should be able to crush him, but there are problems. First and foremost, Henderson doesn’t exactly wrestle when he needs to. He likes to brawl and showed it at times against “Rampage” Jackson. Secondly, his wrestling isn’t as good as many make it out to be. Sure, he’s an Olympian, but he was sloppy in many of his PRIDE bouts when it came to controlling his opponent. He can’t let that happen against a surgeon like Silva. Nonetheless, he has two big powerful hands to fall back on if he’s in trouble. The potential for a knockout win from either fighter is very high.

I’ve battled with who to pick in this fight for days, and honestly, it doesn’t matter. They are very even in regards to how their skills compete with one another. A BJJ Black Belt with surgical Muay Thai striking against an Olympic Greco-Roman wrestler with heavy hands is a classic matchup that should provide a spectacular main event. Who will win?

I’m going to have to go with Anderson Silva. I was a supporter of the whole idea behind Henderson winning this fight. He has better wrestling; therefore he can get the takedown and pound on Silva. I understand that point. My only problem is that I can only see Henderson ending this fight in the standup, and Silva has reach, awesome power for having such big reach, and he is a surgeon on his feet with his strikes. He can wear down Henderson with punches, and then move in for the kill. People know Henderson can ward off the clinch, but can he do it while he’s wobbly… most fighters can’t. To sum it up, I’m taking Silva because I think he has more tools to end this fight.

Leland’s Prediction: Anderson Silva via TKO/KO, Round 2

The person who wins this fight is the person who can impose their will on their opponent. This is as close to a pick ‘em fight as there has been in recent events, but I like Henderson’s chances against Silva. Henderson has the advantage because of this reason: he can keep Silva guessing. Silva knows that Henderson can take him down, and I assure you, Dan will be using his feints a lot. Imagine dropping his head down and faking a takedown, but instead, he throws that huge overhand right. The thing that scares me about Henderson is that he tends to get into brawls. He abandons his wrestling and will choose to stand and trade instead. I don’t think he’ll make that mistake against Silva. I think Henderson will be able to impose his will and dominate Silva inside the clinch with his Greco-roman ability, and he’ll earn a stoppage via strikes late in the fight.

Joe's Prediction: Dan Henderson via TKO/KO, Round 3

Cheick Kongo vs. Heath Herring

This is another tough fight on the event’s card to predict. Herring has a career that spans a decade, and in that time, he’s managed to win 16 of his bouts by submission. Many fans don’t associate Herring with a submission game, but I think that’s exactly what he’ll be looking to do in this matchup.

Kongo will likely try to use his bread and butter, Muay Thai, to defeat Herring along the cage. It’s been working for him in his two most recent wins, but it hasn’t led him to a finishing win that we would come to expect from such a large and powerful fighter.

Both fighters have weaknesses and strengths, but I think Herring has the distinct advantage in this matchup. His ground skills will undoubtedly come into play, and even though he isn’t the best grappler on the planet, Kongo’s ground game looked non-existent even in the short stint that he was on the ground against Mirko “CroCop” Filipovic. It won’t be an easy task, and Kongo may very well prove that he’s trained hard for this fight, but I’ll go with Heath.

Leland’s Prediction: Heath Herring via submission, Round 2

In my eyes, this is Herring’s fight to lose. Herring doesn’t have great wrestling, but Kongo has a very weak takedown defense. It shouldn’t be a problem for Herring to get Kongo to the mat. From there, I think you’ll see a scramble where Herring catches Kongo in a choke, most likely the anaconda choke.

Joe's Prediction: Heath Herring via submission, Round 2   

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Welterweight's Last Hope: Akihiro Gono vs. Jon Fitch

by LR 1/13/2008 6:28:00 PM
GBring.com

One of the more intriguing fights that has been recently announced is the matchup between Akihiro Gono and Jon Fitch in the newly dominated Welterweight division. Months ago, we were talking about how the Middleweight division was suffering from a case of one man completely smashing the competition and the division had yet to catch up. After UFC 79, it seems that the potential matchups to determine the next contender were all but thrown out the window as matches we should care about. This was the exact same thought after Silva devastated Franklin for the second time. What fight does the fanbase really want to see now that Silva has went through nearly every contender with relative ease? The same is now being said about Georges St. Pierre. Unless Serra pulls off another huge upset win over St. Pierre, we will be seeing two divisions in the UFC that have dominant champions and a huge gap between the top and middle of the pack.

Contender spot, Welterweight title picture

Fortunately for many fans out there, the Welterweight division has a matchup that is actually more intriguing than many give it credit for. Akihiro Gono, who submitted Tamden McCrory by an unorthodox armbar at UFC 78, will take on Jon Fitch at UFC 82 for what is most likely to be a contender spot.

Many of you may be asking the question as to why this fight is interesting at all. St. Pierre looked nearly unstoppable, but Hughes is getting older and age is definitely becoming a factor in his skillfulness in the cage. Serra is a survivor in many of his bouts, but he doesn't have the all-around skill that Pierre has. To be honest, there isn't too many fighters who possess the skillset that St. Pierre exhibits in his fights. Serra has the chance to beat Pierre again, but it would be another enormous upset.

With the top spots in the division up for grabs, Gono vs. Fitch becomes a pivotal bout in determining where Hughes, Serra, or even Pierre go. Serra vs. Hughes seems likely, and the winner of Fitch vs. Gono may be up for Pierre next considering he would have beaten Hughes twice and just beaten Matt Serra.

Styles and Historical points

The implications that the fight has in the division are only the tip of the iceberg. The matchup offers an interesting style matchup as well, and is intriguing if you look at the historical aspects of the bout. Gono has an underrated submission background due to the vast amount of decisions he has been in. He has had some success in the past with his striking, but we'd have to trek back to '03-'04 to see any significant wins by TKO/KO. Overall, he's a fairly well-rounded fighter, but lacks knockout power.

Fitch is stylistically similar in many ways. Fitch's background centers around wrestling though. He also exhibited the skills to TKO his opponents early in his career, reminiscent of many wrestlers. Other than the actual specific style differences, Fitch has a decent submission game and some power in his hands, but has had trouble finishing opponents in the past. Looking at both records, skillsets, and experience, this is a great matchup for both fighters.

Fitch can gain a title shot and a solid win over a very experience PRIDE veteran. Gono can solidify a spot for the title as well, and show that PRIDE fighters SHOULD be dropping weight when they move to the UFC.

On that note, the matchup looks much more interesting when looking at historical aspects. Gono is a PRIDE veteran with nine fights in the Bushido series. He's also fought much tougher competition than Fitch. Opponents such as Mauricio "Shogun" Rua, Daniel Acacio, Dan Henderson, Hector Lombard, Gegard Mousasi, Denis Kang, and Yuki Kondo all matched up against Gono within the last 3-4 years of his career. He came out of his era with PRIDE sporting a 6-3 record, losing to existing or eventual champions only.

Fitch, on the other hand, on paper has faced lesser competition. He has managed to rattle of 14 straight wins, but recently has some trouble with Diego Sanchez. He has some big wins over Brock Larson, Thiago Alves, Luigi Fioravanti, and Roan Carneiro also, but it's arguable which fighter has more quality wins. In either case, it's going to come down to whether Gono can handle Fitch's wrestling ability. Gono could surprise some fans, and for that reason, the matchup should be a very good test for both fighters.

Look forward to this matchup. It may be one of the last intriguing matchups we see for awhile in the Welterweight division. Hopefully Yoshiyuki Yoshida pays off.

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Serra's injury accelerates the Welterweight picture

by LR 11/27/2007 10:32:00 AM

Wikipedia.com (Source)After a long weekend of uneventful MMA news, a log fell off the wagon that is the UFC. On Friday, Matt Serra was announced as sustaining a herniated disc injury that would keep him from defending his UFC welterweight title against Matt Hughes on December 29th. From an exclusive interview done by MMAWeekly, it was confirmed today that Serra did sustain two lower back herniated discs and will be out for quite some time with an injury of that magnitude.

With nearly every end of the year card comes the anticipation of a great night of great fights. This was definitely the matchup that many fans wanted to see and the UFC needed to repair the lost luster. Initial reports had Thiago Alves and Jon Fitch in the mix, but the spectacular announcement that Georges St. Pierre would take the bout created the rubber match that Hughes would eventually have to fight if he had retaken the belt. Without a doubt, this is also a fight that would line up St. Pierre for a title shot, but without the lengthy layoff that he had been anticipating.

A bit more backstory to the announcement revealed conflicting reports on how the matchup eventually happened. Hughes stated on his website that he requested Pierre because he wanted to avoid a matchup in front of Pierre's fanbase in Canada. Hughes will also have a training advantage in that Pierre has around 4-5 weeks to train, with a week of downtime toward the fight date. Dave Meltzer over at Yahoo! Sports stated that Pierre had initially called the UFC to stick his name into the mix of potential fighters. Fitch was the first to come up, but he had too much weight on at the moment to drop the weight before the bout. Fitch's camp suggested Koscheck, but the UFC skipped on that and decided to put Pierre back in the mix. Whether Pierre or Hughes convinced the UFC to create the matchup, it shortens the time considerable for a rubber match that many people felt would have happened anyway.

Interim Titles?

When the Georges St. Pierre vs. Matt Hughes fight was announced on Saturday evening, the "interim" title was tagged onto the event and uproar ensued. Why is this an interim title fight? Is Matt Serra going to be out for that long? Is the injury so bad that it could stop him from fighting? The immediate possibilities coming out of the announcement were everywhere. The truth of the matter is much more beneficial to the fans that most people think.

What is one of the biggest things that we've seen coming from some of the recent main events in the UFC? Close decisions. Case in point, UFC 78 had the TUF Alumni matchup in Rashad Evans and Michael Bisping that needed to be longer in order to decide who clearly won the fight. My intuition makes me believe that Evans would have completely gassed with two more rounds declaring Bisping the winner if he worked any kind of boxing at all. These more lengthy bouts could cause many big name fights to avoid the dreaded draw or controversial decision. By the regulations of most commissions, non-championship bouts are required to not exceed more than 3 rounds. How can you solve that problem? Slap a "Interim Title" tag onto the fight and your problem has been solved. Tell the commission that Serra's back injury is too risky to keep the belt in limbo and create the interim bout. This will allow for the end of the year rubber match between Hughes and Pierre to be a 5 round battle.

To be honest, this is actually a good decision. Although I hate the interim title tag on this fight, I do agree that this fight needs to be 5 rounds. I also want to make the case that all main event fights should be five rounds, although that would take some dealing with the commissions to make happen. This is a chance to see an epic battle between two great competitors, and nobody should be mad about the title tag on the fight. Enjoy it because the UFC somehow managed to get us 2 extra rounds of action.

The Ever-Changing Welterweight Picture

With Serra possibly out for 3 or more months without training, we could see Serra out for about 6+ months if he can't do much for the first 3 months with the injury. Add in time for training to get his strength and technique back, and then add in the training for a matchup, it could be quite some time before we see the "Interim" champion against the "Real" champion. Who else is in the picture?

Certainly, all the names that were mentioned as replacements must be in the mix. Karo Parisyan is the one name not mentioned due to his recent victory over Ryo Chonan. Parisyan won the fight despite walking into the matchup with a broken hand. Parisyan has been waiting for a title shot since his title shot last November in which he got injured during training. He has since been sitting on the shelf awaiting his next chance at the title and it looks as if he may get it soon enough.

Other fighters in the mix are Jon Fitch, Josh Koscheck, and apparently Thiago Alves. Fitch has been on a tremendous tear, winning 14 straight fights with his most recent over Diego Sanchez. I think Fitch still needs another top contender fight and with Josh Koscheck on a recent loss to George St. Pierre, Fitch vs. Koscheck seems like a possibility as well. The UFC is rumored to have both fighters on the UFC 82 card, but against separate opponents. Thiago Alves's name came up as a late replacement as well, but he just recently defeated Chris Lytle in UFC 78 in a controversial fight that had many fans scratching their heads as to why the fight was stopped due to a cut that didn't appear to be that bad. Alves has been fairly impressive, but hasn't faced a top 5 contender yet. He will surely be tested in his next fight. The possibility that he may be one of the mystery opponents for UFC 82 is there as well.

Matt Serra should be back!

Let's be honest, if we polled the MMA community on the outcome of the upcoming card, the lopsidedness of the Serra vs. Hughes matchup would be fairly obvious. Many fans attribute Hughes's legendary status, wealth of experience, and overall brute strength as big keys to his success in the cage and to the success of a win over Matt Serra. I'm still not convinced that Serra is an easy matchup for Matt Hughes, and that was mainly the reason why I was a bit bummed to hear the Matt Serra had become injured.

The one reason I was giving Matt Serra a chance, and the one reason many people hate Matt Serra is because he's a fighter who can make the fight last. Many fans hate the fact that he can make fights lengthy, he can make fights stagnant, but he can also avoid being demolished by opponents that seem to have an overwhelming advantage over him. This was one distinct advantage I though Serra had, that he is tough to knockout and he would have made a go at taking the fight to the distance. Again, Hughes doesn't have terrible cardio and he's still a much more powerful fighter in my opinion. So how would have Serra mastered that aspect of Matt Hughes?

Add the fact that Serra's ju-jitsu skills have been known to be great at times, it makes for a lot of possibilities that fans may not be seeing. Case in point, Hughes has been susceptible to flexible ju-jitsu opponents on the ground. BJ Penn and Dennis Hallman are two names that come to mind immediately. Hughes seems to have a weakness for slick ju-jitsu games, and depending on which Matt Serra shows up, he could provide some tough technique to counter. Although I believe Hughes still wins that matchup by power, I think it would have been much closer than people would think. Either way, I think Serra will recover and be back to prove that he can hang with some of the best.

Final Thoughts

Regardless of what you thought about Matt Serra's TUF performance or his lackluster boring fights during his TUF stint, fact of the matter is, Matt Serra always has a chance to win if he can extend the length of a fight. His ju-jitsu and flexibility on the ground pose threats to someone like Matt Hughes who has been susceptible in the past to that type of fighter. Although I think Hughes wins it by pure strength, I think the fans are giving less credit to Serra than he deserves. Give the guy a chance, he did beat St. Pierre is a fight that was considered one of the most lopsided easy wins for Pierre and probably a gold mine fight for the UFC.

Don't complain about the interim title tag, embrace it! After all, it's giving us two extra rounds of fighting for essentially another name for a #1 contender tag. Whoever wins the fight is the #1 contender. If you can put up with casual fans saying Pierre or Hughes is the champion for a few months without really knowing what has been going on, then it's not a big deal. If you are the MMA elitist who MUST outknowledge every fan in your path, welcome to hell. Fact is, the UFC found a loophole to get a longer fight for the end of the year event, and it was a nice find indeed. It allows for the possibility of an epic bout between two great combatants.

Lastly, the UFC's welterweight divisions looks to be fairly healthy coming into the new year. With 3 or 4 up-and-coming fighters beginning to look in on the mix at the top, we have some potential matchups for the title shaping up as well as a plethora of possibilities for contendership bouts and bouts to determine who gets into the top-tier of the welterweight division. It's looking to be very healthy in the Welterweight division of the UFC.

MMA-Analyst.com had an illness this past weekend, a very horrible fever, that sidelined me from writing or responding to emails. I'm finally out of that horrendous ordeal and will be answering all of your emails and comments this week.



UFC 76: Knockout Preview and Predictions

by LR 9/21/2007 11:00:00 AM

With all of the events quickly coming in, I wasn't able to do a full evaluation of the main events on this card, but here is a quick preview of the UFC 76 Knockout event airing on Saturday night at 10 PM EST. Chuck Liddell will look to get back in the hunt for another title shot against Keith Jardine. "Shogun' Rua makes his UFC debut against Forrest Griffin. And in a very intriguing welterweight battle, we will see Jon Fitch take on Diego Sanchez. There are also some very compelling undercard matchups that include Thiago Tavares vs. Tyson Griffin, and Nakamura vs. Machida. As much as the co-main events may not deliver, the undercard battles could potentially deliver some fight of the night votes. Let's get into the breakdown. 

Main Event: Mauricio "Shogun" Rua vs. Forrest Griffin

To hardcore MMA fans, "Shogun" Rua needs no introduction. For the casual MMA fan, here's the rundown. Rua is currently 16-2 in his MMA career, ranked #1 in the world at Light Heavyweight on multiple ranking sites, and has impressively knocked out current UFC Light Heavyweight Champion Quinton Jackson in brutal fashion at PRIDE Total Elimination 2005. Rua is considered by many to be one of the most dominant 205'ers in the world. He fights out of the Chute Boxe Academy in Brazil. He has received a black belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu from Nino Schembri and in Muay Thai from Rafael Cordeiro. This amounts simply that Rua's all around fighting game is amazing. He has unbelievably accurate strikes with great power. He has a very good ju-jitsu background to fall back on when pushes to the ground. He has some of the most devastating knee strikes in MMA. He also has been training in wrestling as well in order to counter it in the cage.

Forrest Griffin is currently 14-4 in his mixed martial arts career. He was the 1st season of Ultimate Fighter winner and defeated Stephan Bonnar in one of the most popular UFC bouts to date. His last bout was a win over Hector Ramirez at UFC 72: Victory via unanimous decision. Griffin is a Xtreme Couture fighter who specializes in ju-jitsu and boxing. He has a very mean ground and pound game and has surprisingly good standup skills. All around, Griffin isn't poor at one skill. He has some decent ground game, some decent striking, and is able to control his opponent in the clinch as well with some surprising power coming out of it, but can he really beat "Shogun" Rua?

I'm not convinced, and I'm fairly certain that Rua's stint in the UFC will be much different than that of CroCop's. Rua is mainly a Muay Thai striker. He doesn't use his ju-jitsu unless he has to, and he loves to use the knees. Sure, he can't use those knee strikes on the ground, but he can up against the cage in a clinch. People always bring up how much he used headstomps and knees on the ground. It is insignificant. Head stomps were almost always finishing moves to an already beaten opponent. Knees on the ground has been replaced with elbows, something I think Shogun will definitely heavily implement into his ground game. He does, however, love to use a ground and pound style that gives him full extension to his punches. This was mostly a PRIDE attribute though. It will be very interesting to see how he incorporates the elbows into his game. I think with the cage wall, Shogun will take advantage of clinching and kneeing as much as he can to weaken Griffin. Shogun's kicking abilities are world class. He is able to pull of flying kicks and knees very quickly and the transition from standing to the kick is almost in a flash. Look for Shogun to incorporate those as well to keep range from Forrest.

To be honest, I don't see what Forrest can do other than aggressively come out strong and push Shogun to the ground or into a cage clinch and throw bombs. If he can do that, he may have a chance, but I think Shogun's versatility and standup game will suit well in the cage. Shogun wins this.

Prediction: "Shogun" Rua via 2nd round TKO/KO.

Chuck "The Iceman" Liddell vs. Keith 'The Dean of Mean" Jardine

I'm really going to cut this analysis short due to the lack of interest I have in this fight. Liddell has knockout power, great takedown defense, and a knack for finding angles to put a fist into his opponents face. What does Keith Jardine have? If someone can tell me, please do. He has some power, some okay boxing skills, but he won't take Chuck down and won't outstrike an elite striker like Chuck Liddell. I don't see any way that Jardine can beat Liddell except a puncher's chance in hell that he catches Liddell and Liddell's brain isn't healed from his last beating. Basically, that means it's a long shot. Long shots sometimes win though, Jardine can tell you that.

Prediction: Chuck Liddell, 1st round KO.

Diego "Nightmare" Sanchez vs. Jon Fitch 

17-1 Diego Sanchez vs. 14-2 Jon Fitch, a battle we are going to see. Sanchez is coming off his decision loss to Josh Koscheck at UFC 69 - Shootout. He had some very notable wins previous to that bout over Joe Riggs, Karo Parisyan, John Alessio, Nick Diaz, and Kenny Florian. Sanchez is currently training in California with Rob Garcia after his split with Greg Jackson in New Mexico. It has been reported that Sanchez has stated on a few occasions, most notably interviews with Sherdog.com, that the split was mainly due to the addition of Georges St. Pierre. Sanchez felt that since the gym had been formed by himself, Jackson, and Jardine, that they shouldn't bring in a high level fighter at his weight class. A clash began and ultimately caused Diego Sanchez to head to California. With all controversy aside, Sanchez is still regarded as a very good fighter, specializing in boxing, gaidojutsu - Greg Jackson's submission system. Gaidojutsu is primarily a combination of judo, wrestling, ju-jitsu, and kick boxing. This formula of skills has definitely molded Diego into the fighter he is today. Sanchez's style is very versatile. He can shoot in for a takedown, pound opponents out, submit them, or he can stand up and trade with fairly decent power in his punches. He has a very good defensive guard and is able to dirty box in the clinch fairly well. His intensity has been lacking as he was very defensive against Josh Koscheck. Look for Fitch to possibly push the pace to get Diego off balance.

Jon Fitch comes into this bout at 14-2, most notably beating Thiago Alves, Josh Burkman, and Shonie Carter. He holds a brown belt in Brazilian ju-jitsu from Dave Camarillo, and he primarily has a wrestling background as he was a 4 year letterman and team captain of the Purdue wrestling squad. He has also added kickboxing to his skillset as he has been training with the American Kickboxing Academy. He can attribute his success to the training that they have provided since he is undefeated since he's began work there. Fitch is somewhat aggressive in the Octagon at times, but utilizes his great wrestling background when in trouble. Fitch's great ground game can also be attributed to his strong physique. Taking on a very powerful Thiago Alves and basically powering out of submission attempts and takedowns, Fitch showed why he belongs in this current matchup with Diego Sanchez.

With Diego's last loss being a boring standup battle that really was never pushed, I'm looking for Fitch's great skills and power to overwhelm Sanchez. Sanchez has some great skills on his feet and on the ground, but I think it's Fitch's time to rise. He's been training very hard in all aspects of MMA, and he's been dominant against some more powerful guys. I think he's going to use his strength to pound on Diego and his cardio to outlast the fight. Fitch will win it by decision.

Prediction: Jon Fitch via unanimous decision.

Matt "Handsome" Wiman vs. Michihiro Omigawa

Matt Wiman, best known for his appearance on Ultimate Fighter Season 5, holds a record of 7-3, recently winning via TKO over Brian Geraghty at UFC - TUF 5 Finale. Before the show, he had a losing streak of two fights. He was knocked out by a flying knee from Spencer Fisher and lost a decision to Nick Agallar. He's proficient in Boxing, Muay Thai, Wrestling, and ju-jitsu, but is mainly known as a standup fighter who likes to revert to a ground and pound style when it applies. He has some decent ground tactics, and on more than one fight, passed guard and full mounted opponents.

Michihiro Omigawa is a DEEP Asian MMA veteran. He currently holds a 4-3 record with a three fight win streak coming into the Wiman bout. He has notable losses over Aaron Riley and Gesias Calvancanti. As was Nakamura, Omigawa is primarily a Judo fighter. Omigawa, much like Wiman, likes to take opponents to the ground and pound them. The only video I have really seen of Omigawa was the Jason Chambers fight at Icon Sport - Lawler vs. Niko 2. Omigawa showed some impressive ground and pound, but nearly got caught in a triangle choke. He was able to pass guard and mount Chambers though after the initial submission scare. After Chambers was able to neutralize the full mount, Omigawa nearly guillotine choked Chambers out, but the fight ended and Omigawa declared the winner by split decision.

I like Wiman in this fight. Omigawa's strikes were pretty weak, nothing amazing. He's susceptible to submission from the top as well. Wiman needs to come out and take a page from Calvancanti's book. He needs to strike aggressively from the start and pound Omigawa immediately. I'm looking for Wiman to come out hard, but don't count Omigawa out. I think this fight could go either way, but I'll go with Wiman based on the fact that DEEP fighters haven't faired well in the UFC, and Omigawa hasn't faired well against aggressive fighters who ground and pound.

Prediction: Matt Wiman via TKO, 1st round.

Kazuhiro Nakamura vs. Ryoto "Lyoto" Machida

Another big fight for Machida, Kazuhiro Nakamura is considered by some to be a late ranked top 10 Light Heavyweight in the world. He currently holds an 11-6 record, mainly losing to only big name fighters such as Mauricio Rua, Josh Barnett, Wanderlei Silva, Dan Henderson, and Antonio Rogerio Nogueira twice. He's primarily a Judo fighter with some fairly decent hands and ground game. Most of his wins have come via decision, seven of them. He's not a guy with tremendous knockout power, but he has a standup style much like a pitbull. He ducks his head and basically runs at you with fists blazing. He likes to use leg kicks to set up standup runs, and has a likeness to use knees in his matches. Clinching with Nakamura is a bad idea since his judo is fairly good. He can simply use leg trips to reverse the hold to a position where he is on top.

Ryoto Machida is a Japanese-Brazilian MMA fighter, son of Shotokan karate master Yoshizo Machida. Machida is currently 10-0 with notable wins over Rich Franklin, B.J. Penn, and Stephan Bonnar. He currently trains out of Black House, along side UFC Middleweight Champion, Anderson Silva. His main skillset consists of Shotokan karate and Brazilian ju-jitsu. Machida relies on his kicking ability in fights, as well as a base of ju-jitsu and some decent wrestling techniques. Machida has a neutralizing guard and is able to use his ju-jitsu to create opportunities to escape the ground and pound. His main knock is his standup in his fists. He has decent power as evident in his knockout of Rich Franklin, but consistently shows poor striking ability. In his battle with BJ Penn, he showed some significantly poor looping strikes.

This is a battle that I think will go to decision fairly easily. Both fighters aren't exactly the most aggressive, but can show flurries of aggression. Nakamura has some very good clinch skills with his Judo, but Machida's karate has some impressive sweeps, ie. BJ Penn fight, 2nd round. Both fighters don't possess the knockout power to end this quickly. I think Machida's karate is highly underestimated in MMA. Many MMA fighters don't train in Karate, but many MMA skillsets branch off from it. Some of Machida's sweeps are very precise and unbelievably effective. Machida has also been said to be "elusive" in his stance. He's an unorthodox southpaw fighter. He sits back pressing kicks at his opponent until his opponent rushes him. A very intelligent fighter, I think Machida wins this by decision.

Prediction: Ryoto Machida, unanimous decision.

Tyson Griffin vs. Thiago Tavares

Quite possibly the match of the evening and hopefully shown on the Pay-Per-View portion of the broadcast, Griffin vs. Tavares is a classic striker vs. submission specialist fight. Tyson Griffin comes into this bout off a recent controversial win over Clay Guida. He has some other notable wins over Duane Ludwig and Urijah Faber, fairly impressive TKO wins. Griffin's main skill is his wrestling and striking. He's a very well conditioned fighter who likes to clinch with his opponent and punish them with strikes. Training with Xtreme Couture is only going to make him better, much better.

Thiago Tavares has been a wrecking ball in MMA in his career. He's currently undefeated with a 13-0 record. His last win was against Jason Black, and he absolutely dominated the Miletich fighter. Known for his fantastic ju-jitsu skills, Tavares has a great shoot that is fairly quick and hard to defend against. He's fairly quick and also has some very good defensive moves. Tavares currently trains with Brazilian Top Team, who houses fighters such as Paulo Filho, Murilo Bustamante, Vitor Belfort, and Ricardo Arona.

I don't see Tyson Griffin being able to control Tavares at all. Tavares was absolutely dominant against a wrestling/striking Jason Black. Black even had great takedown sprawls that Tavares simply squeezed past and took Black's back. Griffin's cardio is amazing, but it will be nullified if Tavares is able to submit him early. Tavares is also very able when it comes to defending against the striking, and I believe Tavares will get Griffin in a submission in the 2nd round.

Prediction: Thiago Tavares, 2nd round submission.

Diego "The Octopus" Saraiva vs. Jeremy Stephens

Saraiva comes into this bout with a 9-5-1 record, 8 wins by submission. There's no fooling around with this kid, he's going to the ground. He is 0-2 in the UFC, losing to Jorge Gurgel and Dustin Hazelett, both my unanimous decision. Diego has an extensive ju-jitsu resume, including a Nova Uniao Black Belt in ju-jitsu. He also holds various championships in Brazil and the U.S. To be noted, Diego did fight Hazelett on a week's notice and was still able to take Hazelett, also a seasoned grappler, to a decision. Look for Saraiva to go to his strength in this fight, his vast skillset in ju-jitsu.

Jeremy Stephens is coming in with a 9-2 record, his most recent battle being with Nick Walker at MCC 9 - Heatwave. His most notable bout was against Din Thomas at UFC 71 - Liddell vs. Jackson. A classic striker, he sports 7 of his 9 wins via (T)KO. According to his profile at UFC.com, he trains in ju-jitsu and Muay Thai, but is mostly a heavy hand hitter.

My gut tells me to pick Saraiva. The guy has some quick feet, very good leg kicks as most Brazilian ju-jitsu fighters are trained to do. He also has some impressive high kicks in previous smaller organizations fights that he has landed. His main strength is taking guys down when he's being rushed. I think Stephens is going to come out trying to knock him out quick, and I think we'll see Saraiva submit him, possibly early.

Prediction: Diego Saraiva, 2nd round submission.

Christian Wellisch vs. Scott Junk

Wellisch is currently 1-1 in the UFC and 7-3 overall in his MMA career. Many fans will probably recall his brutal knockout loss to Cheick Kongo at UFC 62. He currently trains out of the American Kickboxing Academy in San Jose, California with notable fighters Paul Buentello, Josh Thomson, Mike Swick, Josh Koscheck, Jon Fitch, and Bobby Southworth. Wellisch is really known for using his size to punish opponents. He also has some ju-jitsu skills as he claims on the UFC website profile that he has won a Gracie Ju-jitsu Open and US ju-jitsu Open. He also has some wrestling experience from college. Overall, a decent ju-jitsu/wrester/striker.

Scott Junk is currently 6-1 in his MMA career, debuting in the UFC at this event. He's on a six fight win streak, recently winning via corner stoppage against Jimmy Ambriz at MFC 12 - High Stakes. Junk's primary skillset involves some decent boxing along with using his large size as leverage for his power. He has knockout power, and according to Scott Junk's official website, he's trained in Gracie Ju-jitsu and Shoot fighting. Junk's size is a question, as he normally comes in weighing the maximum of 265 lbs.

This is somewhat an interesting test for Wellisch. He's coming off a huge layoff, and he's been overwhelmed by bigger opponents in the past, but he has also beaten bigger opponents in the past. I'm going to have to definitely go with Wellisch in this fight. I've seen Junk fight in K-1, and it was not pretty. He has some very horrible decision making skills in those fights, one being that he tried to kick someone when he had 265 lbs. behind it. Yeah, if it lands, it hurts, but usually you sacrifice quickness when you weigh that much. Junk missed and got knocked out with a direct shot to the temple. I doubt that the ju-jitsu will come into play here, and Wellisch is training with some pretty damn good wrestlers and strikers.

Prediction: Christian Wellisch, 1st round TKO

Rich Clementi vs. Anthony Johnson

Anthony Johnson is a fairly new fighter to the MMA scene. He has a fresh 4-0 record, knocking out Chad Reiner at UFC Fight Night 10 via knockout at only :13 seconds into the first round. Since many people really don't know much about Anthony Johnson, here's a little education. In an interview with OnTheMat.com, Johnson revealed that he currently trains with 8th degree black belt legend, Rigan Machado. He also trains in Muay Thai boxing as well as his base MMA skills in classic boxing. In his fight with Chad Reiner, Johnson showed some great striking ability in fending off a rush from Reiner and catching him during his flurry. Other than that, we can't gauge Johnson's skills in the UFC since his only fight was over in a flash. It is assumed that he has some type of decent ground game with Machado's training. He also seemed to be very powerful, which adds to both his ground and standup games.

Rich Clementi is a veteran MMA fighter with a 25-12-1 record. He was featured on the Ultimate Fighter 4, in which he was knocked out by Shonie Carter in one of the preliminary bouts. In his illustrious career, Clementi has never really defeated any notable fighters to date. He's had runs against Marcus Aurelio, Din Thomas, Caol Uno, and Pete Spratt, losing all of those fights. Clementi is currently 2-2 in the UFC and is looking to pick up another win. His last fight was against Kyle Gibbons at IFO: Wiuff vs. Salmon in which he won via submission in the 1st round. Clementi is mainly a strong striker with a decent wrestling background. I haven't been too impressive with Clementi's wrestling. He has, however, never been knocked out, and he has managed to take a good number of his losses to decisions. But can he deal with Johnson's power? That's the big question, and also, if Clementi takes this fight to the ground, will Johnson have a ju-jitsu game to enable him to be dangerous on the ground? I think so. Rigan Machado is hailed as an unbelievable instructor, and Johnson's power supplementing that ground game will only add to the versatility of his MMA skills. On an added note, Clementi is normally a 155 lb. fighter. This may be a bit more than he can chew at 170.

Prediction: Anthony Johnson, 1st round TKO.

Sources include Wikipedia.org, Sherdog.com Fight Finder, MMAJunkie.com for news bits, all other sources are referenced in article.





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