Adam Swift over at MMAPayout.com has reported an unconfirmed rumor that Golden Boy Promotions may have possibly pulled out of their partnership with Affliction Clothing due to control issues. Although this is pure speculation at this point, Golden Boy Promotions may have finally done their homework and came to the same conclusion that I did a few weeks ago in that newer promotions in this sport will struggle heavily in their infancy.

Golden Boy has a unique advantage though. With Oscar De La Hoya’s face on the promotion and an already successful boxing promotion as well as other ventures in real estate, Golden Boy has the money to definitely survive for a lengthy amount of time. Rumors have also been circulating throughout the MMA community about Golden Boy’s close ties to HBO, and it could become the provider for their own MMA promotion. Sounds great, right?

Unfortunately, it doesn’t sound too great when you think about the big picture. How will Golden Boy draw fans to their promotion over ProElite or the UFC? If they do in fact snag an HBO deal, where will they get the talent to excite crowds and draw in fans? They won’t. Matt Lindland isn’t an exciting fighter, but he can beat some of the very best in the world. The best fighters are unfortunately in the UFC under exclusive contracts, and they are being paid the highest amounts of money that fighters can find in the sport along with exposure for their sponsors on cable television. Golden Boy cannot produce the same results early on, and I find it hard to see them even filling a division with good enough talent to warrant a HBO subscription.

The big idea that many fans have been pushing is for the promotion to sign on for Fedor vs. Couture, and fill the division with guys like Arlovski, Rothwell, and possibly Sylvia. Couture will likely only fight in one battle and then retire, so that leaves the division with roughly four fighters. Sorry, but that isn’t going to sell over 500,000 PPV buys, and their salaries will likely surpass any profit for the first couple of shows unless we see a massive marketing campaign, but then again, that costs money too.

Golden Boy isn’t going to work, even if these rumors are false. We can have all the hope in the world that they will become a major player and produce fights we want to see, but the truth is that the MMA market right now needs to be in a state of turmoil for big changes to happen. It’s only in a slight state right now with the UFC’s lawsuits coming down the line, but the UFC still holds the top talent, and it looks like many of those fighters will be re-signing the dotted line. Zuffa also has control over upcoming talent with the WEC which makes the outlook even grimmer for newer promotions. ProElite seems to have had the best idea in grabbing already established promotions instead of trying their hand at entering new markets blind. Maybe that's the idea that Golden Boy should follow.

In connection with my previous post revolving around my thoughts on M-1 Global going down the drain and likely going to fold by the end of the year, I wanted to touch on a comment that was highlighted by much of the MMA community in regards to Sherdog's article about Fedor's status. Here's the quote:

Once Emelianenko is clear of his M-1 obligations he is expected to field offers from several MMA promotions. The early leader, according to the same source, comes from the purported partnership between Affliction and Oscar de la Hoya's Golden Boy Promotions, which Sherdog.com has learned could debut on June 28.

"Right now we don't have any comments," Golden Boy Promotions Public Relations Director Romiro Gonzalez told Sherdog.com. "[Oscar] is in the sports business. He is loading up on all the fields, especially boxing. We're moving into soccer, MLS. There is nothing official we can say."

Give me a break... honestly. I've grown tired of hearing about the possibility of Oscar De La Hoya's Golden Boy promotion entering the MMA scene. Haven't they done their analysis? Haven't they researched what has happened to other promotions in the game? It's bad news for anyone coming into a market in which one promotion holds exclusive rights to some of the best fighters in the world. M-1 Global, BodogFIGHT, and other promotions have had major problems attracting talent. M-1 Global will probably succumb to this problem alongside bad business practices. BodogFIGHT is essentially finished in creating their own headlining events and now sponsors other promotions, and even EliteXC has problems attracting big name for their other divisions.

Can Golden Boy/Affliction really matter even if they produce Couture vs. Fedor? I don't think so. Even with HBO backing them because of De La Hoya's ties from boxing, the promotion would have huge problems producing opponents for Fedor that are relevant unless guys like Barnett, Sylvia, or Arlovski either signed on with HBO, or left the UFC to sign on with HBO. The UFC has a huge edge in attracting fighters, and even EliteXC has more of an advantage with the new CBS deal. HBO is still a premium channel, and I don't think it's likely that it will produce a complete card that matters with the exception of creating one fight in Couture vs. Fedor.

Things would have to change drastically in the industry for Golden Boy to have a chance.

It’s been an interesting couple of weeks in the mixed martial arts talent market. With news that Fedor Emelianenko has been rumored to be leaving M-1 Global, the stage is set for another showdown between the MMA promotions to fight for his services. ProElite, DREAM, World Victory Road, HDNet, and the UFC will most likely be involved in some sort of talks with the Russian Sambo champion at some point in the coming months. There is another entry into the sweepstakes that many people may be dismissing due to their recent entry into the market.

Golden Boy Promotions is the newest player in the mixed martial arts scene, and they have also been included in the increasing number of promotions that will vie for Fedor Emelianenko’s services. Headed by one-time Swiss banker Richard Schaefer and boxer turned to businessman Oscar De La Hoya, the promotion seems to have a stable background that could translate into the business turning a profit in the industry. Golden Boy is one of the most powerful boxing promoters in the boxing scene, and produced one of the biggest boxing matches in recent history in Floyd Mayweather vs. Oscar De La Hoya. De La Hoya may have lost, but his company netted huge profits from pay-per-view figures and sponsorships.

The next venture for Golden Boy will be a challenge for De La Hoya and company. Golden Boy has partnered with MMA clothing company Affliction to create a new mixed martial arts promotion. After a Fedor Emelianenko and Randy Couture photo shoot that pitted the fighters face to face as a promotional advertisement for Affliction, the UFC booted Affliction from its events and banned the label. Now, Affliction has crept into bed with Golden Boy Promotions… maybe Affliction knows something we don’t.

With a high profile MMA clothing company as a sponsor, Golden Boy will now have to concentrate on obtaining talent. MMA has grown big enough to where talent is hard to come by these days and building from the ground up can take an extensive amount of time. Smaller promotions haven’t been so lucky at building talent and most organizations act as feeder systems to the UFC. How can Golden Boy compete?

According to an article by Kevin Iole at MMAJunkie.com back in February, Golden Boy CEO Richard Schaefer commented that there appears to be “turmoil” in the mixed martial arts business in which new companies are forming and fighters are revolting against the current business practices. Tito Ortiz is mentioned in the article as having a representative reach out to Golden Boy to see if the two sides could work together.

Is Golden Boy Promotions is the true dark horse in the mixed martial arts scene? The company has a solid background with big profits and is diverse in not only boxing, but in real estate and potentially other sports. They’ve been rumored to have already signed middleweight fighter Matt Lindland, and are now in the running to possibly sign Fedor Emelianenko to a deal. Could they actually pull this off and turn a profit? History tells us a resounding “No”.

Once again, we move into the realm of thinking that was parallel to the thinking when M-1 Global entered the market. First and foremost, the UFC is the only mixed martial arts promotion to have made a large profit in the North American market. Nearly every single promotion besides the UFC has lost money to an extent in the United States, and it will likely continue. The UFC has not only locked up many of the best fighters in the world, but they’ve also managed to grab a cable television network deal, loads of sponsors including blue-chip sponsors, and their pay-per-view buyrates are steadily bringing home the bacon.

Golden Boy won’t be able to secure top talent in the market. Tito Ortiz can draw people, but who will he fight? Fedor Emelianenko has already proven to be a poor draw in his battle with Matt Lindland in BodogFIGHT, so what are the real benefits for Golden Boy? The biggest upside is their relationship with HBO, but how do they draw more fans to HBO than EliteXC has drawn to Showtime? It’s essential for a promotion to draw big numbers to make a profit, and I don’t see Golden Boy’s roster exploding with enough great fighters to make a fan buy the HBO package or even tune in.

Is Golden Boy the dark horse? I don’t think so. Tito Ortiz and Fedor Emelianenko may turn a profit for one event if Golden Boy happened to sign them, but the fact is that in the long run, Golden Boy will run into the same problems that other promotions have. The only thing that may keep them alive is the simple fact that the company is diverse in its revenue streams, but would you want one stream bringing down your profits? No, not if you’re a businessman.