Thiago Alves vs. Matt Hughes

The one upset pick of the evening comes in this matchup between the legend Matt Hughes and the up-and-coming talent in Thiago Alves. Much has been made about Hughes’s age and abilities in the cage recently, but I still believe his wrestling style can cause a lot of trouble for Alves. The only real problem for Hughes is that his standup skills are going to be far less dynamic than Thiago’s combinations.

Alves has devastating leg kicks that can halt Hughes’s ground game by weakening him to just standing instead of shooting for takedowns. If Hughes can manage a takedown, he’ll have to rely on his power to hold top control. It’s been questioned recently if Hughes still has that power, and this is the fight he needs to prove it.

Classic striker vs. wrestler in this matchup, and I’m going to take Alves via TKO. It’s a risky pick, but someone’s got to do it.

Leland’s Prediction: Thiago Alves via TKO/KO, Round 2
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Brandon Vera vs. Fabricio Werdum

I’ve flip-flopped my pick on this for quite some time now, and it’s time to put up or shut up. Brandon Vera will be my pick here for a couple of reasons. First and foremost, he’ll have the striking advantage on his feet with the added bonus of likely being lighter and having better footwork. He has some range to his strikes and being technically better will only help his stake at a win if it goes to the judges.

Secondly, I think Brandon Vera can avoid the submission on the ground if it goes there. While I think it’ll be tough for Werdum to get inside to take down Vera, Vera should be able to work some ground tactics himself to get the fight back to standing.

I’d love to pick Werdum here, but the striking war that could happen in this fight heavily favors Vera’s dynamic skillset in that department. He employs great combinations and kicks to keep his opponent guessing and off guard.

Leland’s Prediction: Brandon Vera via decision
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Marcus Davis vs. Mike Swick

As I stated in the past, I’m picking Marcus Davis in this fight. Swick has never impressed me with his gameplans or skillset in any fight. He’s a rangy striker with some power, but Davis will counter with a boxing background, awesome power, and the ability to work the ground game with his strength.

While I think Swick’s submission chokes have a shot at catching Davis trying to put Swick to the mat, Davis’s best attribute to counter would be the muscle he’s gained since moving into the UFC. I’m not inclined to believe Swick can catch him in a hold, and it would be more likely that Davis escapes to crush Swick on the floor.

In any case, I don’t see Davis having problems with Swick’s hands. It wouldn’t surprise me at all if Davis could catch Swick with his heavy hands and put this one away quickly.

Leland’s Prediction: Marcus Davis via TKO/KO, Round 2
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Michael Bisping vs. Jason Day

I have a tough time picking Michael Bisping in almost every single fight I have to analyze featuring him. While I believe he possesses some solid MMA skills, I don’t think he will be able to compete near the top of the 185 pound division. I will, however, put my faith in his matchup for Saturday.

While Day has some great power in his hands, Bisping should have the all-around better skillset to defeat Day. Bisping will have more cardio, better technical standup, good takedown defense, and an uncanny ability to get himself out of horrible positions.

I expect Bisping to avoid Day’s power and work his technical boxing. I’m sure we’ll see Day try for an onslaught of strikes, but that could prove to be tough against Bisping’s range and Muay Thai training. Look for Bisping to pepper Day to a decision.

Leland’s Prediction: Michael Bisping via unanimous decision
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Quick Picks
Martin Kampmann vs. Jorge Rivera: Battle of two dynamic strikers, Rivera is coming off a win over Kendall Grove while Kampmann is finally making his return to the cage since defeating McFedries back in March of 2007. Kampmann will have some good striking as well as some slick grappling on the ground. He has an all-around toolkit to take care of Rivera. Kampmann via submission, Round 1

Nate Marquardt vs. Thales Leites: Huge step up in competition for Leites, and I don’t believe he can overcome the power of Marquardt. While both guys will be very good on the ground, I think Leites will have problems overcoming Marquardt’s conditioning and power. Marquardt via decision

Thiago Tavares vs. Matt Wiman: Thiago will have a much better ground game than Wiman, but Wiman probably has some better standup skills slightly. Wiman has never been impressive to me in his past fights, and he has a tendency to play defense late in the fight far too much. Tavares should be able to get this to the ground and to the submission quickly. Tavares via submission, Round 1

Jess Liaudin vs. Paul Taylor: I’m a bit of a fan of Taylor with his good striking skills and footwork in the cage. He also has a style that keeps coming forward, and he can take some punishment as well. Liaudin has never impressed me, and his chin is susceptible to the knockout. He has some ground game that could be dangerous, but Taylor should win this one. Taylor via decision

Jason Lambert vs. Luiz Cane: While Cane still has some impressive knockout power, he’s going to have a tough time against Jason Lambert’s mauling style on the ground. Lambert was well on his way to victory against Wilson Gouveia until he showed some sloppy standup. I don’t think he’ll make the same mistake twice. Lambert via TKO/KO, Round 2

Roan Carneiro vs. Kevin Burns: Carneiro is a BJJ black belt and is currently training at American Top Team as of Jan. 14th of this year. Look for him to begin shaping his game up to defeat these lesser opponents that the UFC is feeding him. Carneiro via submission, Round 1

Antoni Hardonk vs. Eddie Sanchez:  An evenly matched fight between two heavyweights that likely won’t be making any waves anytime soon. Hardonk is coming off an impressive win over Colin Robinson in just :17 seconds while Sanchez won a war with Aussie Soa Palelei. Hardonk should have the better standup while Sanchez will have some wrestling to draw from. I still think Hardonk can outstrike Sanchez and finish this one. Hardonk via TKO/KO, Round 1

After a highly entertaining event at the end of 2007 for the UFC, they will start things back up on Saturday with UFC 80: Rapid Fire from Newcastle, England. The event will feature the Lightweight championship title bout between Joe "Daddy" Stevenson and the rejuvenated B.J. Penn. Penn will come in as a favorite after easily demolishing Jens Pulver in his previous bout at the TUF Season 5 Finale. After a long wait for the title picture to unfold, Penn is now looking to prove that he is training harder and has refocused his energy to being the best in mixed martial arts. Fabricio Werdum will make his return to the cage after a lackluster performance against Andrei Arlovski at UFC 70: Nations Collide. Werdum has since moved to the renowned Chute Box camp to improve his striking and overall technique in the cage. He'll take on the former #1 contender in Gabriel "Napao" Gonzaga who is fresh off a loss to Randy Couture. Let's take a brief look at each matchup, and we'll give you our predictions in the process.

Main Event: Joe Stevenson vs. B.J. Penn
Lightweight Championship Bout

Joe Stevenson will have his work cut out for him in this matchup. B.J. Penn has been renowned for being one of the best fighters pound for pound in the world for many years. His only knock has been his inability to go deep into fights. His cardio training was his most obvious flaw that contributed to that inability and opponents managed to squeeze out victories against him because of it. He'll have to show up in phenomenal shape with his gas tank full in order to take out the pitbull in Joe Stevenson.

On paper, Stevenson doesn't seem to have an overall advantage in any department. B.J. has been known to have very good striking ability, and has put guys out in the past using just his hands. Penn also has some of the best jiu-jitsu we've seen in the cage, and his flexibility only makes it even tougher for opponents to work him on the ground. Again, the one area in which Stevenson may hold an advantage is the cardio area. Stevenson has solid wrestling abilities with some good submission work to counter B.J., especially if he grows tired.

The big problem here for Joe is that he really doesn't offer much in any area of the fight. He shouldn't want to trade with B.J. for very long unless he can catch an aggressive Penn early. The ground is where Stevenson can dominate if he can get on top of Penn, but Penn's jiu-jitsu would likely cause Stevenson to be on the defensive, even while Penn is on his back.

This fight will come down to cardio. If Stevenson can make this 5 round battle last longer and longer as it goes on, he has a much better chance of putting Penn out for good. Penn will probably want to end this within a 3 round limit before pushing his cardio to the max. Penn's jiu-jitsu alone is scary enough to put him on top in this matchup. Stevenson is definitely a good bet though.

Leland's Prediction: B.J. Penn via submission, Round 3

I’m tired of starting my prediction of every B.J. Penn fight with, “If B.J. comes in shape, no one can beat him.” I believe B.J. Penn will come in shape, and I think he will show why many people, including myself, feel he is pound-for-pound one of the best fighters in the world.

B.J. has tremendous flexibility and uses it to his advantage to avoid takedowns. He has dynamic striking and a solid chin, as proven in his fights against Pulver, Machida and GSP.  Of course, his jiu-jitsu is also off the charts. The only knock against B.J. is his cardio. He has shown a tendency in the past to fade in the later rounds. I feel that for once, B.J. has learned his lesson and will be able to take Stevenson out.

Joe Stevenson is a very underrated fighter. Joe has a solid wrestling base, good striking, and an underrated jiu-jitsu game. Stevenson is going to have to control B.J. in this fight and set the pace of the fight. If he lets B.J. control the pace of the fight, it will be a short night for Joe Daddy. The problem for Joe in this fight is he doesn’t have a lot of ways to win. His striking isn’t crisp enough to hurt B.J., he doesn’t have the superior jiu-jitsu game, and I think he’s going to have a tough time taking Penn down. The best bet for Joe is to clinch with Penn and use that to set up his takedown. From there he should look to control top position and work some ground-and-pound. He’s going to have to be on the defensive, because B.J. can take your back at some weird angles. However, if he’s too defensive, the fight is going to get stood up. 

Joe's Prediction: B.J. Penn via TKO, Round 2
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The fight itself hasn't been touted as being a matchup that can sell, but it's definitely a battle to see who can progress toward the top of the heap. Werdum is primarily known for his slick jiu-jitsu skills, and he has shown some ground and pound technique in the past. Gonzaga is also a black belt jiu-jitsu fighters with some good striking as well. If Werdum's striking has improved significantly by moving to Chute Box, look for this fight to produce some fireworks. Both men have well-rounded grappling, but Werdum will want to prove his striking is dangerous. Gonzaga will be more than game to strike with Werdum.

Werdum's success at Chute Box is self-proclaimed, but their history recently doesn't look good on paper. The Rua brothers left the team, and Wanderlei Silva moved away from Chute Box for the States. Many fighters are beginning to move toward the United States to gain a wrestling base that has been regarded as being the building blocks for a fighter. Is Chute Box's failures recently due to the UFC's talent base becoming more skillful in avoiding the standup and using their wrestling abilities?

It's tough to say. Many of the Chute Box faithful have simply run into tougher fighters. Fabio Silva got brutalized by Dutch kickboxer Melvin Manhoef, Luiz Azeredo was crushed by “The Crusher” Kawajiri, Andre “Dida” Amade was defeated by Gesias Calvancante, and Daniel Acacio lost the anticipated BTT vs. Chute Box showdown at Fury FC to “Toquinho”. The only real deal currently moving up the UFC's ladder is Thiago Silva.

Werdum's chances may be better though. He already has a solid grappling background, and striking will only help him in the clinches, especially with better Muay Thai training. Werdum is confident that his striking skills will improve his game immensely, and when we heard he was moving to Chute Box, most MMA fans agreed that it was the right move for his career. This should be a much closer fight than many believe, and it should be exciting to see if Werdum's improvement can counter “Napao”.