UFC 83: Serra vs. St. Pierre Preview & Predictions

by LR 4/17/2008 3:18:00 PM

The UFC makes its debut in Canada with an already sold out event in Montreal at the Bell Centre on Saturday night. The featured bout matches up Matt “The Terror” Serra against Georges “Rush” St. Pierre in a highly anticipated rematch  of their UFC 69 battle that saw Matt Serra upset St. Pierre. Rich Franklin will make his return to the Octagon after his second loss to UFC Middleweight champion Anderson Silva. He'll take on a venerable Travis Lutter who will test Franklin's submission defense. Other bouts scheduled include Canadian Kalib Starnes vs. Nate “The Rock” Quarry, Mac Danzig vs. Mark Bocek, Michael Bisping vs. Charles McCarthy, and Jason MacDonald vs. Joe “El Dirte” Doerkson, along with a slew of undercard bouts that are sure to entertain us. Let's take a look at the card.

Main Event: Georges “Rush” St. Pierre vs. Matt “The Terror” Serra
UFC Welterweight title bout

Oddly enough, Georges St. Pierre comes into this bout as a huge favorite while Serra once again remains the heavy underdog. St. Pierre's destruction of Matt Hughes at UFC 79 on short notice was stunning in the capacity of being unbelievably dominating. The fact that he can outwrestle any fighter in the weight class is a testament to his training regiment and work ethic. Wrestlers with plenty of credentials to back up their “smack” continue to fall to St. Pierre's superior skills. Pierre also has dynamic striking that is unparalleled in the division, but he has shown weakness in the standup at times, namely against his opponent, Matt Serra.

Serra's abilities are underrated by many fans of the sport. He has very good jiu-jitsu skills on the ground, and his strength can become a huge factor as the fight progresses. He's very tough to defeat by a finish, and he's never been submitted in MMA competition. I firmly believe it'll be a good test for St. Pierre if it becomes a chess match on the ground. The x-factor is Serra's heavy hands. He has some decent striking skills for a smaller welterweight, and with power behind them, we've seen what they can do against St. Pierre.

Bottom line: St. Pierre should win this fight within the first three rounds. He has great power, athleticism, dynamic striking, range, reach, and is coming off a stunning performance against Matt Hughes. Serra definitely has a shot on his feet, but I don't believe he can submit St. Pierre on the floor. Serra has great submission defense, so I'd stray away from St. Pierre defeating him there, but I do believe he can work some wrestling skills to open up the striking.

Leland's Prediction: Georges St. Pierre via TKO, Round 3

Rich “Ace” Franklin vs. Travis Lutter

Rich Franklin is looking to get back on the track back to another title shot. How many title shots can one have after being destroyed the previous two tries? We don't know, but Franklin is still a formidable opponent for anyone trying to make a run at Anderson Silva. He has good power, decent striking, big blow ground and pound, and he's not half bad on the ground either. He's a well-rounded fighter, but he isn't great in any one thing.

Lutter, on the other hand, is a great jiu-jitsu fighter on the ground, but he lacks the powerful hands that Franklin possesses. The biggest problem for Lutter is getting through Franklin's submission defense, a defense that has helped Franklin remain unbeaten by a submission throughout his 25 fight career.

Franklin should take this one. He has fantastic submission defense, and has the hands to defeat Lutter on his feet or on the ground. Franklin has taken on great grapplers in the past, and has always came through with his crushing ground and pound.

Leland's Prediction: Rich Franklin via TKO, Round 2

Michael Bisping vs. Charles “Chainsaw” McCarthy

More...


UFC 78: Tom Hanks said it best, I don't get it.

by LR 11/19/2007 6:35:00 AM

How do Tom Hanks and Saturday night's UFC 78 event relate to one another? Simple. There is one scene in the movie BIG in which Tom Hanks is working at a toy company as an adult when in actuality, he's a boy who was turned into an adult by a wish to an arcade game at a carnival. We have all seen the movie. In the scene, Hanks is in a meeting with the top executives going over quarterly numbers and sales. During the lecture regarding the sales, Hanks is playing with the toy that resembles a building that turns into a robot. Hanks raises his hand and the character played by actor John Heard asks Hanks what the question is. Hanks replies, "I don't get it", in which Heard asks, "What don't you get?". Hanks replies, "I don't get it. It's a building that turns into a robot, what's the fun in that?". A very hilarious scene from a great movie. But what does that have to do with UFC 78? As soon as Evans vs. Bisping ended, I simply stated to myself... I don't get it.

What don't you get!?

Before I seemingly rip into this boring event, I will say that it was perceived by most of us in the MMA community that this card was going to be a disappointment. The laughable attempt by Dana White to hype Michael Bisping and Rashad Evans in some of the conference calls and press conferences never blinded me with visions of grandjeur about the event. With that said, what about this event didn't I get? Take a seat:

  • Why was the event card so weak? There seemed to be not one single fight that stood out remarkably in my mind before the event began. I wasn't excited for one particular fight as I have been on other cards. It'd be a much different feeling if there was a fight I wanted to see, but it came up short. I understand that mixed martial arts is unpredictable, but there isn't unpredictability and excitement in a fight I could care less about. My prediction would be... I don't care.

    • There are many thoughts as to why the card suffered. Mainly, many of the champions are injured or coming off recent fights. The lightweight division's top tier is in gridlock due to the Sean Sherk case. The middleweight division just had a title shot. The welterweights are also in gridlock due to the taping of The Ultimate Fighter and the title defense coming out of the show between Matt Serra and Matt Hughes. Quinton Jackson has a broken hand and Randy Couture is in a dispute with UFC's management, as we all know. That leaves the titles in each weight division locked up for now and unavailable for the 78 event.

    • The matchmaking abilities of Joe Silva have definitely come into question. I mean, Michael Bisping vs. Rashad Evans was terrible. I won't put the blame on matchmaking for it because I imagine Dana White had something to do with this fight coming to life when he couldn't conjure up another bout with so many divisions in lockdown (see previous point). Fisher-Edgar looked like a decent matchup to many fans, but all I thought about was Fisher's decisions and how they stacked up against Edgar's style, mainly a takedown fighter. It didn't bode well at all, and a friend thought I was nuts when I said you might as well run out and get some food while this snoozefest is on. Karo Parisyan vs. Anybody is a bad matchup. I hate to tell ya, but Karo still hasn't worked on his power enough to finish someone. He has slick ground moves, but matching Chonan up with him was disappointing. I would have rather seen Akihiro Gono switched with Chonan. Swap out these couple of fights with some undercard battles, and it would have been a bit more exciting.

Those are two biggest contributing reasons to such a poor card, and the UFC won't be able to avoid more of their events having the same problems. I can understand some of the problems, but having just an overall weak card entirely could have been avoided. There were some very good fights on the undercard that intrigued me as a hardcore fan. Gono vs. McCrory was interesting, and it ended up being a very interesting fight with an unorthodox submission victory. I didn't believe the Reinhardt hype at all, but I am a fan of Joe Lauzon. Chris Lytle vs. Thiago Alves was a matchup that I thought was particularly interesting. It seemed to be a good matchup for both competitors and it delivered. The only problem was that the cut Lytle sustained somehow caused the doctor to stop the fight. Another fight ruined by poor judgment in my opinion.

Dare I say, I thought the Joe Doerksen vs. Ed Herman fight was probably one of the most exciting fights on the card for the pure fact that it was a back and forth battle. Herman showed potential and improved strength in his abilities as a fighter. It was clear that he was stronger than Doerksen and was able to control top position easily, but the BJJ skills of Doerksen came into play during the end of the second round. Herman was saved by the bell. Herman's sloppy standup striking managed to win him a third round KO though. Definitely a back and forth battle of ups and downs.

Final Thoughts

The UFC could have done a better job with this card's main card lineup. When a fight like Herman vs. Doerksen makes a run for fight of the night, there is obviously something wrong with the top fights. Matchmaking a few decision fighters against other decision fighters isn't acceptable. Come on UFC! I understand making the casual fans happy is where it's at, but can you throw the hardcore fans a fight?



Answers to the UFC Middleweight picture...finally!

by LR 11/18/2007 3:25:00 PM

TeamQuestMMA.comDespite UFC 78: Validation having some fairly boring matchups, some key news came out of the event. Dan Henderson will drop down to the Middleweight division to take on the destructive Anderson Silva in a middleweight championship showdown in March at UFC 82 in Columbus, Ohio. As I stated in a previous article, this was one of the most probable scenarios that would happen in the division. We may also be looking at some more fighters drop to middleweight as well. Michael Bisping possibly? It'd be in his best interest, I believe. Let's take a look a closer look at the divisional impact this news has.

Middleweight division gets a much needed jolt!

Dan Henderson dropping to Middleweight will provide a much needed electricity to the title picture in the division. Anderson Silva has yet to have a solid contender in the division, and Henderson is exactly that, solid. It has been said throughout the MMA community that the type of opponent that can counter Anderson Silva well is a Greco-Roman wrestler with dynamite in his hands at times. Problem is, Henderson has a tendency to try to break an opponent with his power in the standup game. He loves to brawl with his opponents, but his strength should be his wrestling abilities. He has at times, however, been outwrestled by opponents that should have been easily stifled on the ground. The x-factor in this type of matchup is Anderson Silva's black belt ju-jitsu skill on the ground. Can it nullify the control techniques of Henderson?

Silva has made his claim as the best pound for pound fighter in the world for one reason alone, complete destruction of his opponents. His knockout power in his long lanky arms is deceptive to his opponents. Henderson has never been knocked out and has what is considered to be one of the hardest chins in mixed martial arts. He took some very tough shots from Quinton Jackson in their recent matchup and still kept coming. His cardio is very good and his relentless attack may prove to be enough to edge Silva. This is all possible if Henderson actually executes a solid gameplan. Silva's reach and striking are very dangerous however, and his power may be deceptive enough to stop Henderson for the first time in his career. It'll be a very interesting battle if it stays standing.

Henderson finally gives in

What led to this fight coming to be? Henderson has been stating for months that he would not drop down to middleweight to fight Silva, and it was perceived that it may have been an issue of money. With the UFC's contracts and salaries recently being exposed from the Couture-Dana White debocle, Henderson may have been even more weary of the terms of his own negotiations. Did Dana White have to give up a fairly large salary for this fight? That speculation definitely has merit.

Henderson would be dropping down to a division that really has a poor talent base except for the top few fighters. Without Henderson, fans may only be able to look forward to the possibilities of other light heavyweights dropping down to middleweight, or the eventual rebirth of Rich Franklin only to be possibly destroyed for a third time. Henderson's holdout had some great timing if those were the only possibilities for the division. He had leverage to ask for more bonus money, pay-per-view cuts, and an increase in pay for the fight. Making the sacrifice to cut more weight and possibly power was probably another factor in the negotiating.

Scenarios

With this signing, the division has at least prolonged its life for the time being. If Henderson actually stays at middleweight even if he is beaten, it doesn't bode well for anybody below such as Franklin, but if he wins, it sets up some great spectacle fights for Anderson Silva to dominate in for the fans. I wouldn't put it past Dana White to give Anderson Silva an immediate rematch though considering he destroyed Franklin and Franklin has beaten the top contenders below the top spot. With that said, the division still needs more talent near the top.

Once again, we will be faced with a stagnant division with just two or three fighters in the mix for the title. Ed Herman is trying to via for a run into the top and was impressive in his win over Doerksen last night, but he isn't anywhere near the top. Many fans believe he could at least make a run into the mid-tier fighters and possibly defeat some of them. I'm a bit more hesitant to think so just yet. I would leave him out of the conversation for now.

Who else? Trigg, Miller, and Jacare are all out. Once again, I resort to my argument that Matt Lindland should be in the Octagon. Lindland vs. Henderson is a decent fight, and Lindland vs. Silva is a possibility. Hell, even Franklin vs. Lindland may be a better fight than people give it credit. That's four top fighters in a lacking division. For now, we can wait for the Henderson vs. Silva matchup in grand anticipation. It should be an explosive battle of comparable styles at times, but both possess skills that can revert to a different gameplan quickly. What happens after the matchup, only time will tell. With the new season of TUF coming as well with Middleweights, who knows what we'll see from the UFC.



UFC 78: Validation Preview and Predictions

by LR 11/15/2007 5:06:00 AM

Bisping being taken down... NBC SportsUFC 78: Validation will roll into the Prudential Arena in Newark, New Jersey on Saturday night. The card features a main event between two TUF winners, Rashad Evans and Michael Bisping. In a light heavyweight matchup, Houston Alexander will be looking to continue his domination of the division by taking on a heavy handed Thiago Silva. Spencer Fisher also looks to keep a good thing going in an explosive battle with Frankie Edgar. The card also features a number of good undercard matchups that should either excite the crowd or bore the fans to death, we'll see who shows up to win. Let's take an in-depth look into what many consider the UFC's weakest card to date, but take a closer look and you may find some gems.

Rashad Evans vs. Michael “The Count” Bisping

Arguably, both of these fighters could definitely cut down to Middleweight and make the division worth a damn, but instead we will see both fighters try to make a run at moving themselves up toward the upper heap in the Light Heavyweight division. Rashad comes into the bout sporting a 10-0-1 record, but has yet to fight any of the top competition. His last bout against Tito Ortiz caused a small controversy due to Ortiz grabbing the fence causing the score for the round to be a draw. Ortiz won the first round 10-9 and lost the last round 9-10 to Evans. It caused the fight to end in a draw and a promise of a rematch. It's rumored that the winner of this matchup will fight Ortiz.

Bisping is also coming off a controversial fight that is considered one of the worst decisions by a judging crew in MMA this year. Many fans believe Matt Hamill won their matchup at UFC 75. Bisping also comes into this matchup with an undefeated record of 14-0, but like Evans, hasn't fought top competition.

This battle will be a matchup of conflicting styles to an extent. Bisping definitely would rather stand and Rashad seems to like to work the standup enough to set up his wrestling abilities. Bisping showed some good boxing technique against Hamill and seems to have improved his standup significantly, but he showed hesitation in running through Hamill because he was a wrestler. We could see the same thing from Bisping in this battle unless he somehow works on being aggressive against a wrestler. Obviously, he wasn't comfortable in his abilities enough to get into the zone of a wrestler in his last bout, but Hamill didn't try to do much when taking down Bisping. Bisping also had zero takedown defense against Hamill. It should definitely be a gauge for Bisping to learn from. Evans has some decent standup with a combination of kicks and punching. His defense is okay, but his wrestling ability will be the skill that could propel him to win this fight.

My pick for this fight will be Rashad Evans based on the pure fact that Bisping's sprawl was non-existent in his last bout. I believe Evans will shoot his hips and put Bisping to the floor pretty quickly, and I don't think Bisping has the massive power to knockout Evans very quickly. Bisping has knocked fighters out, but in the UFC, he remains cautious. He doesn't want to overextend his stride and get caught or get taken down quickly. Rashad doesn't really have finishing power, so I'll take him by decision

Pick: Rashad Evans by Unanimous Decision.

Houston Alexander vs. Thiago Silva Alexander handling Sakara... NBC Sports

Houston is somewhat of a sensation in the UFC currently. He came in to fight Keith Jardine as a late replacement likely to lose to Jardine and ended up spectacularly knocking him out instantly. His raw power is uncanny in providing him knockouts. His last bout against Alessio Sakara proved to be a quick fight and wasn't entirely a test to Alexander's abilities. Alessio came out before the battle stating he was going to try to fight with Houston's strength because he felt he had a better boxing game. Bad idea playing into Houston's strength. Will Thiago have a better gameplan?

Silva, if you hadn't noticed, is a Chute Box fighter, hence the last name. Like many of the Chute Box fighters, he possesses some outstanding Muay Thai skills and a good ju-jitsu base on the ground. Silva is the type of opponent the UFC looks to be setting up for Houston to punch out. Although Silva has some great standup, Houston's power could be a potential problem for Silva. Interestingly enough, many people said that about Tomasz Drwal. I found it odd how people picked Drwal who seemed to have horrible standup, but a ton of power. Drwal's looping punches were evident in many of the fights leading up to the bout and it almost seemed as if he was just swinging for the fence with no regard as to how he would defend the counter. Silva took advantage. Houston seems to have a better gameplan for strikers though. If he can't catch you standing, he will catch you in the clinch. Silva has had some impressive battles, but I believe Alexander's strength will be no match. The X factor is Alexander's cardio. Will he be able to continue battle if it hits the second round?

Pick: Houston Alexander via first round (T)KO.

Frank “The Answer” Edgar vs. Spencer “The King” Fisher

A battle of a couple of bangers, this fight looks to have the makings of a great back and forth battle. Fisher has experience on his side sporting a veteran record of 20-3, Edgar is fairly new with a 7-0 record. I'll make this a brief breakdown since I'm rather interested in seeing how this fight will pan out because it's a fairly tough battle to determine. Both fighters are very well-rounded, tough as nails, and have had some very good success. Edgar took out Bocek recently at UFC 73 and a very tough Tyson Griffin at UFC 67. Fisher is coming off an exciting battle against Sam Stout at UFN 10.

This is going to come down to who can outstrike their opponent before they decide to hit the mat, if they do at all. Fisher is unbelievably tough to beat and has only been stopped once, the other two losses being by decision. Edgar seems to also be the type of fighter who has a tendency to go the distance much like Fisher has done recently. I believe Fisher's experience, toughness, and overall ability to recover should push him through on this one.

Pick: Spencer Fisher via Unanimous Decision.

Karo “The Heat” Parisyan vs. Ryo “Piranha” Chonan

Finally, Karo will fight again and try to make a claim that he deserves a damn title shot already. He comes into this fight at 17-5 with a long layover after his fight with Josh Burkman at UFC 71 in which he made Burkman miss haymakers nearly the entire fight. Pariysan is strictly a judo fighter who loves to put down the hip toss in his matches and dominate his opponent with ground work and fleet footedness. He isn’t overly powerful and has in fact won 7 out of his last 9 fights via decision. To be perfectly honest, I’m not a huge fan of Pariysan for the mere fact that I believe he will get overwhelmed at the top of the heap. He seems to have a great way of avoiding damage, but can’t deal out enough damage to stop an opponent, leaving open the possibility of being beaten in later rounds. Will he be able to stop the “Piranha” from defeating him? I believe he can.

Chonan is a veteran ex-PRIDE fighter with a background in judo. He is most famous for being completely dominated by Anderson Silva in their PRIDE Shockwave 2004 matchup, but somehow pulling off one of the most difficult submissions in the flying scissor heel hook. Quite an impressive fight. Chonan has problems with power as evident in his losses to Dan Henderson and Phil Baroni, and he’s susceptible to the better submission fighters as evident in his loss to Paulo Filho. He was beaten inside the first round by the Brazilian ju-jitsu expert. Although he’s taken some big losses to some strong opponents, Chonan is fairly well-rounded with decent striking skills and an overall excellent judo game. He’s a bit small at 185, but he will be bigger since he is dropping down to 170 for the UFC. Look for him to have a bit more power and size on Parisyan.

A tough matchup indeed. I believe Chonan has the judo skills to really stop Parisyan from moving in on him for big hip tosses and judo moves that could temporarily put Chonan in bad positions. Parisyan is still very well rounded and active in his fights early. Parisyan should be able to keep working Chonan tired and end the fight in a decision win. It’ll be interesting to see if Parisyan shows up with some more power since he’s been off for months and hopefully gaining strength and training during that time.

Pick: Karo Parisyan via Unanimous Decision.

Thiago “Pitbull” Alves vs. Chris “Lights Out” Lytle

Alves is an American Top Team prospect with power in his hands. He has 7 fights in the UFC, 5 wins, with his most notable victories over John Alessio, Tony DeSouza, and Kuniyoshi Hironaka. He has some hard striking that could overwhelm the veteran Chris Lytle. Lytle has been around for quite awhile. He’s a very good submission expert with a number of losses against some big name fighters, but he has been able to been nearly everyone that isn’t near the top of the heap. He’s lost to Matt Hughes and Matt Serra most recently, both by decision. He’s only been stopped once in his 14 losses, losing 13 by decision, making a statement for Lytle’s longevity in his fights.

Alves’s main weakness is his submission defense. In two of his losses, he suffered submissions to Spencer Fisher and Derrick Noble. Problem is, Alves’s power is a huge factor for Lytle, but Lytle seems to avoid the big punches and take the fight to the ground. This is going to be my small upset pick of the night, I’m going to go with Chris Lytle via submission.

Pick: Chris Lytle via submission, second round.

Other matchups
Marcus “Maximus” Aurelio (14-5) vs. Luke “Lil Hulk” Caudillo (13-8)

 

Aurelio is a very good submission fighter with the ability to avoid big punches and strikes, the kind of stuff that Caudillo will be trying to land as he has 9 wins by (T)KO. He’s susceptible to submissios with 6 losses by submission and this matchup should be no different. In true TJ Desantis speak, Aurelio should win by triangle CHOKE!


Pick: Marcus Aurelio via first round submission (triangle choke).


Joe Doerkson (39-10) vs. Ed “Short Fuse” Herman (13-5)

I like Doerkson in this fight specifically because he’s a submission fighter with a boatload more experience. Both fighters have fought each other before at SF 7 – Frightnight back in October of 2004. Doerkson squeaked out a triangle choke in the third round to win. I’m not a huge fan of Ed Herman, but he has some decent skill on the floor. I think Doerkson’s skills should still be crisp enough to take out Herman in a lengthy battle.

Pick: Joe Doerkson via second round submission.

Akihiro Gono (27-12-7) vs. Tamden “The Barn Cat” McCrory (8-0)

Great matchup between a natural welterweight and Gono who is dropping down from a middleweight to fight at 170. McCrory is a fairly tall fighter with some size. He’s undefeated with a win over Pete Spratt at UFN 10 nearly 5 months ago. He seems to be mainly a knockout fighter, but has been pulling out some very good chokes in his last two fights. His length and reach are definitely advantages and he has been known to have deceptive strength and devastating elbows and knees. This will be a fairly tough fight for Gono.

Let’s get one thing out of the way. Gono doesn’t suck. Many fans seem to jump on the PRIDE fighters suck bandwagon, but Gono has only lost recently to the big names. Shogun by strikes, Henderson by knockout, and Kang by decision were his last three losses. Gono is fairly hard to submit, he has some decent submission skills, and has power in his hands as well. I’m going to go with the safe bet on this one, Gono has the experience and toughness to outlast McCrory. Plus, give some love to the Japanese, come on!

Pick: Akihiro Gono via Unanimous Decision.

Joe Lauzon (15-3) vs. Jason Reinhardt (18-0)

If you actually think Reinhardt has a chance because he’s 18-0, you’re nuts. If Reinhardt wins, I’ll forever shut the hell up. Reinhardt is about 20 miles south of where I am in Decatur, IL. He’s fought mainly cans for most of his career, but has some power and ground skills. Fact is, this is a battle that Reinhardt will have a tough time winning. He hasn’t fought really any tough fighters, his opponents’ records combine for a very small win percentage, and Lauzon has established himself as a possible force in the division. His training with BJ Penn should definitely help immensely.

Pick: Joe Lauzon via first round submission.

Those are my predictions and previews to each of the matchups at UFC 78. It isn’t exactly the most spectacular card that the UFC has put on, but it definitely has some fights worth watching. Check it out on Saturday night on Pay-per-view at 10 PM EST.





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