UFC 88 Breakthrough: Preview & Staff Predictions

by Leland Roling 9/5/2008 4:16:00 PM
promo/ufc
Time has been hard to come by as of late, but I've managed to fit some in-depth analysis in for some of the upcoming UFC events as we head into September. We start out the UFC's month with a fairly lackluster fight card in UFC 88: Breakthrough. Liddell vs. Evans, Franklin vs. Hamill, and Henderson vs. Palhares aren't blockbuster battles that casual fans will be clamoring over in the hours leading up to the event. Nonetheless, let's take a look at some of the battles we'll see on Saturday night.

Chuck Liddell vs. Rashad Evans


Let's face it... this isn't a main event headlining fight to anyone who follows the UFC adamantly. Chuck Liddell holds wins over some of the best fighters in the world while Rashad Evans has decisioned himself to an 11-0-1 undefeated record. At 21-5, Liddell is arguably one of the top light heavyweights in the world, and he's the UFC's money making public icon to the sport. His status alone with the UFC gives him a shot at redeeming most of his key losses on the way back to the title. Could this fight be one of those redeeming wins that would jolt him back into the title picture? I wouldn't put it past the UFC no matter how much I disagree with it.

Striking is going to be the major difference in this matchup. Liddell is not only a seasoned veteran of the sport, but he's one of the most lethal strikers in the light heavyweight division. Using strafing movements and odd angles to land blows, he'll likely work a ranged striking game while keeping away from Rashad's strengths in the wrestling game.

Evans doesn't have anything to offer in this fight. He can't fight at range with Liddell. He lacks knockout power in the striking game. His wrestling abilities will likely be countered by Liddell's takedown defense, and he'll almost assuredly become mincemeat if he tries to shoot for a takedown with Liddell's sprawl. How can Rashad win this fight? Unless we see a vast improvement and much more dynamic mixture of his skills, Liddell should easily win this fight.

Leland's Prediction: Chuck Liddell via TKO/KO, Round 2

Rich Franklin vs. Matt Hamill

Franklin's move to 205 could become an interesting battle on the ground if Hamill's power is as overwhelming as we've seen in some of his past battles. Hamill registers at 6'2” while Franklin comes in around 6'1”. Hamill should technically have the muscle and length to make this an interesting matchup. However, Hamill's striking game is still in a developing stage. Franklin, on the other hand, is seasoned in crushing opponents from the top position. It makes for some contemplating as to how this fight could work itself out.

Franklin's experience and power should help him prevail over a rather green Matt Hamill. Not only is his striking much more seasoned and powerful, but he still has an able ground game to counter Hamill. Franklin will be tough to overpower as well, but Hamill does have the strength to potentially do just that. I wouldn't count on it happening though.

Leland's Prediction: Rich Franklin via TKO/KO, Round 2

Dan Henderson vs. Rousimar Palhares

I was a bit torn on this matchup when it was first announced to be occurring at UFC 88. Palhares has the potential to become the next Paulo Filho. A powerful submission fighter with improving standup and great transitioning skills, Palhares presents some problems for Henderson. Can he actually submit Henderson? Unless Palhares can prove that his jiu-jitsu is in the arena of the Nogueira brothers or Anderson Silva, I'm definitely leaning toward a “No” answer.

Henderson will have the advantage on his feet with some good striking skills coupled with fantastic power in his hands. Palhares will be looking to push this battle to the floor quickly to use his power grips to submit Henderson. If Henderson doesn't pay attention, he could potentially fall victim to a signature leglock from Palhares. I still expect Henderson to be careful and squeak out a decision win over Palhares.

Leland's Prediction: Dan Henderson via decision

Martin Kampmann vs. Nate Marquardt
More...


UFC 88 Breakthrough: MMA-Analyst.com's Joe Schmitt breaks it down...

by Joe Schmitt 9/5/2008 12:09:00 PM

First off, let me issue another quick apology for not getting any articles up this week. Things have been especially crazy for Leland and I over the past few months, and things are finally settling down. I hope to continue posting on a semi-regular basis and hopefully we'll be back in full swing before long.

This weekend, UFC 88 heads to Atlanta, Georgia. I'm going to skip the usually fighter introductions because truthfully, those can be found anywhere on the net. Let's get to the real reason we write these articles, the predictions and analysis.

Chuck Liddell vs. Rashad Evans

Chuck Liddell comes into this fight after winning a unanimous decision over former PRIDE middleweight champion, Wanderlei Silva. Chuck and Wanderlei had an epic three round war that was nothing short of spectacular.

Rashad comes into this fight having won a controversial split-decision over Michael Bisping. He is the TUF 2 heavyweight winner and is undefeated in his career.

Simply put, Chuck destroys grapplers. It's really hard for me to find anyway for Rashad Evans to win this fight outside of a lucky punch or kick. Chuck has excellent takedown defense and is able to utilize good footwork and work angles to effectively counter punch his way to victory. Rashad has one benefit on his side. He trains with Greg Jackson and his teammate, Keith Jardine, was able to defeat Liddell. The problem for Rashad is that he doesn't possess the leg kicks needed to keep Chuck at bay. I believe this fight will look similar to Chuck and Tito's two fights with Rashad looking to shoot sporadically and getting pounded on the feet. 

Joe's Prediction: Chuck Liddell via T/KO round 2.

Rich Franklin vs. Matt Hamill

Rich Franklin looks to make his return to the light heavyweight division against former TUF contestant Matt Hamill. Hamill is a Division III wrestler that has show good power inside the Octagon. I have went back and forth on this fight a little bit only because of Franklin's jump in weight. Hamill will be decidedly bigger and will most likely have the power advantage. Rich will want to keep this fight on the feet and try to take advantage of Hamill's sloppy stand up defense. Hamill has big power in his punches and pushes a relentless pace. He always comes forward, but the thing that scares me is that sometimes he drops his hands to his sides and swings looping punches. If Franklin can keep this fight on the feet and avoid Hammil's takedowns, which is no small task I might add, then he can definitely win this fight. Hamill needs to relentlessly push the pace and keep Rich on his heels. When he sees an opportunity, he needs to put Rich on his back. From there, Hamill must have improved on his top control to keep Rich neutralized. I don't think he'll be able to do it, and I think this will be a closer fight than most expect.

Joe's Prediction: Rich Franklin via Unanimous Decision.

Dan Henderson vs. Rousimar Palhares More...



UFC 84: Ill Will Preview & Predictions

by Leland Roling 5/22/2008 4:28:00 AM
ufc

Sean Sherk vs. BJ Penn

The most anticipated bout so far this year has to be BJ Penn vs. Sean Sherk. With Sherk’s positive steroid test and the UFC stripping him of his title, he definitely has much to prove to the UFC fanbase. Penn is also trying to prove that he has changed his ways from being only a fighter who relies on talent to a fighter who has the cardio and determination to dominate in the UFC. Any way you look at this fight, it’s going to be an epic war.

Stylistically, it’s a damn good matchup. Sherk has unbelievable cardio, great wrestling skills, and an active enough ground and pound game to keep the fight on the ground. Penn has K-1 striking abilities, good power, world class grappling game coupled with amazing flexibility, and an improved gas tank. Penn should have a standing advantage while Sherk’s wrestling skills should be the controlling factor on the ground. The x-factor lies in Penn’s jiu-jitsu and ability to attempt submissions with Sherk’s massive physique on top of him. If Penn can create some dangerous situations for Sherk, it could cause some shifts on the ground and potentially allow Penn to submit or at least escape to the feet where he can strike.

Historically, Sherk has only had problems with bigger Welterweights Georges St. Pierre and Matt Hughes. St. Pierre had some great striking abilities to counter his shoots, and Hughes was the better wrestler. Penn will have a striking advantage, but it’ll be interesting to see how his flexibility becomes a factor in avoiding the takedowns.

Penn’s losses were to a much bigger Lyoto Machida, a controversial decision to Georges St. Pierre, Jens Pulver, and to Matt Hughes at UFC 63. Penn claimed to have been hurt during his bout with Hughes, and it’s been speculated whether Penn simply ran out of gas due to a rib injury. Of course, that’s all in the past. A healthier Penn with a bigger gas tank could be the key to success against Sherk in this case. History would certainly point toward those areas needing improvement, and Penn has trained to do so.

Who should I pick? It’s a tough call. Many writers are leaning toward Sherk due to his wrestling ability being a huge problem for Penn. Ben Fowlkes pointed out that Penn has had problems against both St. Pierre and Matt Hughes in the wrestling department, and that his standup striking hasn’t been a finishing factor since Paul Creighton. I disagree. Penn was defeating St. Pierre with below average cardio and damaged St. Pierre much more than anyone I’ve seen. Penn dominated Hughes in their first matchup, and was likely disadvantaged from the rib injury in their second fight. As for his striking, it’s still an effective way to damage opponents which usually causes them to try to shoot to the ground to recover. Penn is damaging his enemies with his strikes, but most of those opponents get submitted as they try to escape to the ground to avoid damage.

I’m going to take Penn by TKO/KO here. I think Sherk has some great submission defense, but Penn has the great striking to pick apart Sherk steadily and eventually pound him out. To be perfectly honest, I can see Penn pushing the damage to a point where Sherk sloppily shoots for horrible takedowns that leave him open for the submission, but I think Penn will want to make a statement here.

Leland’s Prediction: BJ Penn via TKO/KO, Round 3

Lyoto Machida vs. Tito Ortiz

I’d have to see some significant changes from Tito Ortiz during the fight to give him a chance in this one. His last performance wasn’t his best, and it led to many fans claiming that Ortiz has past his prime of fighting in mixed martial arts. While I agree that he’s lost some of his old school beatdown skills, he’s still a fairly decent fighter against mid-tier talent. Is Machida a mid-tier fighter? No, he isn’t.

Ortiz has claimed that he’ll push the pace, get in Machida’s face, and put him into a world of pain on the ground where he likely won’t be able to use his elusiveness to evade. Although I believe only a quicker fighter can defeat Machida at this point and that the strategy he claims he wants to use has potential to work, can Ortiz actually pull it off? I don’t think so.

Ortiz hasn’t shown blazing speed in the cage, and Machida eats opponents alive when they bull rush him into the cage. While Machida may not have impressive knockout power, I still believe he possesses it. Great counter-striking has stopped Ortiz in the past, and Machida’s ground game isn’t a weakness for Ortiz to exploit.

Leland’s Prediction: Lyoto Machida via unanimous decision

Keith Jardine vs. Wanderlei Silva

More...


UFC's shopping spree continues, looking good for MMA fans

by LR 1/25/2008 4:24:00 AM
Sherdog.com

The UFC seems to have read the handbook on bolstering weaker divisions with new talent. Many fans consider the Middleweight division to be the weakest, but some remedies are on their way to the division. Dan Henderson is dropping down to the weight class, Michael Bisping is also moving to Middleweight, and the UFC recently signed Rousimar "Toquinho" Palhares as well. Now comes the Welterweights.

On the assumption that Georges St. Pierre will defeat Matt Serra at their matchup in April, the division seems to have the makings of the weak Middleweight division. Specifically, Georges St. Pierre would sit atop the division unchallenged while fighters like Fitch try to work their way up. There is a small talent gap there, but it looks like the UFC is going to answer the call.

Mfight reported on Friday that Dong Hyun Kim will make his UFC debut in March or April at 170 pounds. A Spirit MC and DEEP veteran, Kim has been impressive in his two most recent battles with DEEP Champion Hidehiko Hasegawa. He defeated him in a non-title battle in their first matchup and went the distance in the second matchup for the title. Many consider the second matchup to be a definitive Hyun Kim win, but the judges scored it a draw.

His southpaw stance in the striking game could prove to cause problems for divisional opponents in the UFC, but Kim also has some solid wrestling. He also trains with none other than Yushin Okami, a successful UFC fighter who definitely knows how to utilize the cage.

All of these recent acquisitions are definitely beginning to bolster these divisions. We are beginning to see great up-and-coming talent that SHOULD be in the UFC actually make it to the promotion. It'll also help them gain some ground with fans internationally as they are signing many Asian and Brazilian market fighters who can bring more fans to the UFC's fanbase. There is still the problem of solidifying any type of TV deal in Asia, and the UFC is nearly non-existent in Brazil as far as air time.

Even with promoting problems in those countries, fans in the U.S. should be excited for the prospect of some great talent moving into the ranks. The UFC is impressively gaining a significant amount of the talent throughout the world.

Image is courtesy of Sherdog.com

Currently rated 4.5 by 2 people

  • Currently 4.5/5 Stars.
  • 1
  • 2
  • 3
  • 4
  • 5

Tags:

Dong Hyun Kim | UFC



MMA-Analyst's up and comers of '08: Our picks and thoughts on CBS's picks

by LR 1/5/2008 3:19:00 PM

CBS Sportsline writer and FiveOuncesOfPain.com blogger, Sam Caplan, had an interesting article regarding his picks for some of the break out fighters that we may see in 2008. His picks were Ed Ratcliff, Neil Grove, Jon Murphy, Tim Kennedy, Aaron Meisner, Carlo Prater, Demian Maia, and Ronaldo "Jacare" Souza. Those are some pretty decent picks for 2008, but there are a few that have been left out that should be looked at. Also, some of these names look to have some major roadblocks to overcome as well. Let's take a look.

Some thoughts on Caplan's picks

Ed Ratcliff is a great pick, and he brings the Karate background to his skillset that many mixed martial artists rarely have. A fighter who many people may know what has a demoralizing tactical gameplan for nearly every fight which features a karate background is Lyoto Machida. Ratcliff doesn't seem to garner the same type of patient countering as Machida, but he has crisp striking and precision kicks. Picking him over Karalexis recently was a damn good bet on my part, but Karalexis's wrestling was definitely a factor I had weighed. Regardless, Ratcliff pulled out a good win. Check out his Chuck Norris-esque spinning back kick win over Brett Cooper (Just recently beat Rory Markham at the IFL GP Final).

Tim Kennedy is definitely a nice pick. He nearly finished Jason Miller, but was ultimately defeated. Even with the setbacks, he's a warrior with good power, decent striking, and a great wrestling background. He'll be able to improve significantly as well as he has been training with The Pit, Liddell's camp.

Both are fantastic picks, but I'm not sold on the Demian Maia and Ronaldo "Jacare" Souza picks for a couple of reasons. First, Maia and Souza could run into the possibility of just being punched into unconsciousness. We all know that, but my main gripe deals with grapplers in general moving to the top of the middleweight division. Both guys could make waves in a weak UFC middleweight division for awhile, but the grapplers near the top and the over talent at the top rely on some decent standup skills as well. A guy like Filho has better chances because he has huge power in his arms and has a possibility of catching his opponent. His raw power is also tough to stop on the ground. His raw power makes him dangerous in the striking even though he isn't that technically sound in it. Maia and Souza don't have that advantage.

Neil Grove didn't impress me in his last fight, and honestly, he's a typical British standup fighter. Robert Berry, who wasn't using really any technique at all in his striking, was able to actually drop him to the ground and win the round. Unbelievably, Berry gave up due to exhaustion. Grove was lucky, and he will probably be exposed in any other organization.

More...



Our Writers

  • Leland Roling - Editor
  • Joe Schmitt - Staff Writer
  • John McKiernan - Staff Writer
  • Matthew Watt - Staff Writer