Sean Sherk vs. BJ Penn

The most anticipated bout so far this year has to be BJ Penn vs. Sean Sherk. With Sherk’s positive steroid test and the UFC stripping him of his title, he definitely has much to prove to the UFC fanbase. Penn is also trying to prove that he has changed his ways from being only a fighter who relies on talent to a fighter who has the cardio and determination to dominate in the UFC. Any way you look at this fight, it’s going to be an epic war.

Stylistically, it’s a damn good matchup. Sherk has unbelievable cardio, great wrestling skills, and an active enough ground and pound game to keep the fight on the ground. Penn has K-1 striking abilities, good power, world class grappling game coupled with amazing flexibility, and an improved gas tank. Penn should have a standing advantage while Sherk’s wrestling skills should be the controlling factor on the ground. The x-factor lies in Penn’s jiu-jitsu and ability to attempt submissions with Sherk’s massive physique on top of him. If Penn can create some dangerous situations for Sherk, it could cause some shifts on the ground and potentially allow Penn to submit or at least escape to the feet where he can strike.

Historically, Sherk has only had problems with bigger Welterweights Georges St. Pierre and Matt Hughes. St. Pierre had some great striking abilities to counter his shoots, and Hughes was the better wrestler. Penn will have a striking advantage, but it’ll be interesting to see how his flexibility becomes a factor in avoiding the takedowns.

Penn’s losses were to a much bigger Lyoto Machida, a controversial decision to Georges St. Pierre, Jens Pulver, and to Matt Hughes at UFC 63. Penn claimed to have been hurt during his bout with Hughes, and it’s been speculated whether Penn simply ran out of gas due to a rib injury. Of course, that’s all in the past. A healthier Penn with a bigger gas tank could be the key to success against Sherk in this case. History would certainly point toward those areas needing improvement, and Penn has trained to do so.

Who should I pick? It’s a tough call. Many writers are leaning toward Sherk due to his wrestling ability being a huge problem for Penn. Ben Fowlkes pointed out that Penn has had problems against both St. Pierre and Matt Hughes in the wrestling department, and that his standup striking hasn’t been a finishing factor since Paul Creighton. I disagree. Penn was defeating St. Pierre with below average cardio and damaged St. Pierre much more than anyone I’ve seen. Penn dominated Hughes in their first matchup, and was likely disadvantaged from the rib injury in their second fight. As for his striking, it’s still an effective way to damage opponents which usually causes them to try to shoot to the ground to recover. Penn is damaging his enemies with his strikes, but most of those opponents get submitted as they try to escape to the ground to avoid damage.

I’m going to take Penn by TKO/KO here. I think Sherk has some great submission defense, but Penn has the great striking to pick apart Sherk steadily and eventually pound him out. To be perfectly honest, I can see Penn pushing the damage to a point where Sherk sloppily shoots for horrible takedowns that leave him open for the submission, but I think Penn will want to make a statement here.

Leland’s Prediction: BJ Penn via TKO/KO, Round 3

Lyoto Machida vs. Tito Ortiz

I’d have to see some significant changes from Tito Ortiz during the fight to give him a chance in this one. His last performance wasn’t his best, and it led to many fans claiming that Ortiz has past his prime of fighting in mixed martial arts. While I agree that he’s lost some of his old school beatdown skills, he’s still a fairly decent fighter against mid-tier talent. Is Machida a mid-tier fighter? No, he isn’t.

Ortiz has claimed that he’ll push the pace, get in Machida’s face, and put him into a world of pain on the ground where he likely won’t be able to use his elusiveness to evade. Although I believe only a quicker fighter can defeat Machida at this point and that the strategy he claims he wants to use has potential to work, can Ortiz actually pull it off? I don’t think so.

Ortiz hasn’t shown blazing speed in the cage, and Machida eats opponents alive when they bull rush him into the cage. While Machida may not have impressive knockout power, I still believe he possesses it. Great counter-striking has stopped Ortiz in the past, and Machida’s ground game isn’t a weakness for Ortiz to exploit.

Leland’s Prediction: Lyoto Machida via unanimous decision

Keith Jardine vs. Wanderlei Silva

With all of the events quickly coming in, I wasn't able to do a full evaluation of the main events on this card, but here is a quick preview of the UFC 76 Knockout event airing on Saturday night at 10 PM EST. Chuck Liddell will look to get back in the hunt for another title shot against Keith Jardine. "Shogun' Rua makes his UFC debut against Forrest Griffin. And in a very intriguing welterweight battle, we will see Jon Fitch take on Diego Sanchez. There are also some very compelling undercard matchups that include Thiago Tavares vs. Tyson Griffin, and Nakamura vs. Machida. As much as the co-main events may not deliver, the undercard battles could potentially deliver some fight of the night votes. Let's get into the breakdown. 

Main Event: Mauricio "Shogun" Rua vs. Forrest Griffin

To hardcore MMA fans, "Shogun" Rua needs no introduction. For the casual MMA fan, here's the rundown. Rua is currently 16-2 in his MMA career, ranked #1 in the world at Light Heavyweight on multiple ranking sites, and has impressively knocked out current UFC Light Heavyweight Champion Quinton Jackson in brutal fashion at PRIDE Total Elimination 2005. Rua is considered by many to be one of the most dominant 205'ers in the world. He fights out of the Chute Boxe Academy in Brazil. He has received a black belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu from Nino Schembri and in Muay Thai from Rafael Cordeiro. This amounts simply that Rua's all around fighting game is amazing. He has unbelievably accurate strikes with great power. He has a very good ju-jitsu background to fall back on when pushes to the ground. He has some of the most devastating knee strikes in MMA. He also has been training in wrestling as well in order to counter it in the cage.

Forrest Griffin is currently 14-4 in his mixed martial arts career. He was the 1st season of Ultimate Fighter winner and defeated Stephan Bonnar in one of the most popular UFC bouts to date. His last bout was a win over Hector Ramirez at UFC 72: Victory via unanimous decision. Griffin is a Xtreme Couture fighter who specializes in ju-jitsu and boxing. He has a very mean ground and pound game and has surprisingly good standup skills. All around, Griffin isn't poor at one skill. He has some decent ground game, some decent striking, and is able to control his opponent in the clinch as well with some surprising power coming out of it, but can he really beat "Shogun" Rua?

I'm not convinced, and I'm fairly certain that Rua's stint in the UFC will be much different than that of CroCop's. Rua is mainly a Muay Thai striker. He doesn't use his ju-jitsu unless he has to, and he loves to use the knees. Sure, he can't use those knee strikes on the ground, but he can up against the cage in a clinch. People always bring up how much he used headstomps and knees on the ground. It is insignificant. Head stomps were almost always finishing moves to an already beaten opponent. Knees on the ground has been replaced with elbows, something I think Shogun will definitely heavily implement into his ground game. He does, however, love to use a ground and pound style that gives him full extension to his punches. This was mostly a PRIDE attribute though. It will be very interesting to see how he incorporates the elbows into his game. I think with the cage wall, Shogun will take advantage of clinching and kneeing as much as he can to weaken Griffin. Shogun's kicking abilities are world class. He is able to pull of flying kicks and knees very quickly and the transition from standing to the kick is almost in a flash. Look for Shogun to incorporate those as well to keep range from Forrest.

To be honest, I don't see what Forrest can do other than aggressively come out strong and push Shogun to the ground or into a cage clinch and throw bombs. If he can do that, he may have a chance, but I think Shogun's versatility and standup game will suit well in the cage. Shogun wins this.

Prediction: "Shogun" Rua via 2nd round TKO/KO.

Chuck "The Iceman" Liddell vs. Keith 'The Dean of Mean" Jardine

I'm really going to cut this analysis short due to the lack of interest I have in this fight. Liddell has knockout power, great takedown defense, and a knack for finding angles to put a fist into his opponents face. What does Keith Jardine have? If someone can tell me, please do. He has some power, some okay boxing skills, but he won't take Chuck down and won't outstrike an elite striker like Chuck Liddell. I don't see any way that Jardine can beat Liddell except a puncher's chance in hell that he catches Liddell and Liddell's brain isn't healed from his last beating. Basically, that means it's a long shot. Long shots sometimes win though, Jardine can tell you that.

Prediction: Chuck Liddell, 1st round KO.

Diego "Nightmare" Sanchez vs. Jon Fitch 

17-1 Diego Sanchez vs. 14-2 Jon Fitch, a battle we are going to see. Sanchez is coming off his decision loss to Josh Koscheck at UFC 69 - Shootout. He had some very notable wins previous to that bout over Joe Riggs, Karo Parisyan, John Alessio, Nick Diaz, and Kenny Florian. Sanchez is currently training in California with Rob Garcia after his split with Greg Jackson in New Mexico. It has been reported that Sanchez has stated on a few occasions, most notably interviews with Sherdog.com, that the split was mainly due to the addition of Georges St. Pierre. Sanchez felt that since the gym had been formed by himself, Jackson, and Jardine, that they shouldn't bring in a high level fighter at his weight class. A clash began and ultimately caused Diego Sanchez to head to California. With all controversy aside, Sanchez is still regarded as a very good fighter, specializing in boxing, gaidojutsu - Greg Jackson's submission system. Gaidojutsu is primarily a combination of judo, wrestling, ju-jitsu, and kick boxing. This formula of skills has definitely molded Diego into the fighter he is today. Sanchez's style is very versatile. He can shoot in for a takedown, pound opponents out, submit them, or he can stand up and trade with fairly decent power in his punches. He has a very good defensive guard and is able to dirty box in the clinch fairly well. His intensity has been lacking as he was very defensive against Josh Koscheck. Look for Fitch to possibly push the pace to get Diego off balance.

Jon Fitch comes into this bout at 14-2, most notably beating Thiago Alves, Josh Burkman, and Shonie Carter. He holds a brown belt in Brazilian ju-jitsu from Dave Camarillo, and he primarily has a wrestling background as he was a 4 year letterman and team captain of the Purdue wrestling squad. He has also added kickboxing to his skillset as he has been training with the American Kickboxing Academy. He can attribute his success to the training that they have provided since he is undefeated since he's began work there. Fitch is somewhat aggressive in the Octagon at times, but utilizes his great wrestling background when in trouble. Fitch's great ground game can also be attributed to his strong physique. Taking on a very powerful Thiago Alves and basically powering out of submission attempts and takedowns, Fitch showed why he belongs in this current matchup with Diego Sanchez.

With Diego's last loss being a boring standup battle that really was never pushed, I'm looking for Fitch's great skills and power to overwhelm Sanchez. Sanchez has some great skills on his feet and on the ground, but I think it's Fitch's time to rise. He's been training very hard in all aspects of MMA, and he's been dominant against some more powerful guys. I think he's going to use his strength to pound on Diego and his cardio to outlast the fight. Fitch will win it by decision.

Prediction: Jon Fitch via unanimous decision.

Matt "Handsome" Wiman vs. Michihiro Omigawa

Matt Wiman, best known for his appearance on Ultimate Fighter Season 5, holds a record of 7-3, recently winning via TKO over Brian Geraghty at UFC - TUF 5 Finale. Before the show, he had a losing streak of two fights. He was knocked out by a flying knee from Spencer Fisher and lost a decision to Nick Agallar. He's proficient in Boxing, Muay Thai, Wrestling, and ju-jitsu, but is mainly known as a standup fighter who likes to revert to a ground and pound style when it applies. He has some decent ground tactics, and on more than one fight, passed guard and full mounted opponents.

Michihiro Omigawa is a DEEP Asian MMA veteran. He currently holds a 4-3 record with a three fight win streak coming into the Wiman bout. He has notable losses over Aaron Riley and Gesias Calvancanti. As was Nakamura, Omigawa is primarily a Judo fighter. Omigawa, much like Wiman, likes to take opponents to the ground and pound them. The only video I have really seen of Omigawa was the Jason Chambers fight at Icon Sport - Lawler vs. Niko 2. Omigawa showed some impressive ground and pound, but nearly got caught in a triangle choke. He was able to pass guard and mount Chambers though after the initial submission scare. After Chambers was able to neutralize the full mount, Omigawa nearly guillotine choked Chambers out, but the fight ended and Omigawa declared the winner by split decision.

I like Wiman in this fight. Omigawa's strikes were pretty weak, nothing amazing. He's susceptible to submission from the top as well. Wiman needs to come out and take a page from Calvancanti's book. He needs to strike aggressively from the start and pound Omigawa immediately. I'm looking for Wiman to come out hard, but don't count Omigawa out. I think this fight could go either way, but I'll go with Wiman based on the fact that DEEP fighters haven't faired well in the UFC, and Omigawa hasn't faired well against aggressive fighters who ground and pound.

Prediction: Matt Wiman via TKO, 1st round.

Kazuhiro Nakamura vs. Ryoto "Lyoto" Machida

Another big fight for Machida, Kazuhiro Nakamura is considered by some to be a late ranked top 10 Light Heavyweight in the world. He currently holds an 11-6 record, mainly losing to only big name fighters such as Mauricio Rua, Josh Barnett, Wanderlei Silva, Dan Henderson, and Antonio Rogerio Nogueira twice. He's primarily a Judo fighter with some fairly decent hands and ground game. Most of his wins have come via decision, seven of them. He's not a guy with tremendous knockout power, but he has a standup style much like a pitbull. He ducks his head and basically runs at you with fists blazing. He likes to use leg kicks to set up standup runs, and has a likeness to use knees in his matches. Clinching with Nakamura is a bad idea since his judo is fairly good. He can simply use leg trips to reverse the hold to a position where he is on top.

Ryoto Machida is a Japanese-Brazilian MMA fighter, son of Shotokan karate master Yoshizo Machida. Machida is currently 10-0 with notable wins over Rich Franklin, B.J. Penn, and Stephan Bonnar. He currently trains out of Black House, along side UFC Middleweight Champion, Anderson Silva. His main skillset consists of Shotokan karate and Brazilian ju-jitsu. Machida relies on his kicking ability in fights, as well as a base of ju-jitsu and some decent wrestling techniques. Machida has a neutralizing guard and is able to use his ju-jitsu to create opportunities to escape the ground and pound. His main knock is his standup in his fists. He has decent power as evident in his knockout of Rich Franklin, but consistently shows poor striking ability. In his battle with BJ Penn, he showed some significantly poor looping strikes.

This is a battle that I think will go to decision fairly easily. Both fighters aren't exactly the most aggressive, but can show flurries of aggression. Nakamura has some very good clinch skills with his Judo, but Machida's karate has some impressive sweeps, ie. BJ Penn fight, 2nd round. Both fighters don't possess the knockout power to end this quickly. I think Machida's karate is highly underestimated in MMA. Many MMA fighters don't train in Karate, but many MMA skillsets branch off from it. Some of Machida's sweeps are very precise and unbelievably effective. Machida has also been said to be "elusive" in his stance. He's an unorthodox southpaw fighter. He sits back pressing kicks at his opponent until his opponent rushes him. A very intelligent fighter, I think Machida wins this by decision.

Prediction: Ryoto Machida, unanimous decision.

Tyson Griffin vs. Thiago Tavares

Quite possibly the match of the evening and hopefully shown on the Pay-Per-View portion of the broadcast, Griffin vs. Tavares is a classic striker vs. submission specialist fight. Tyson Griffin comes into this bout off a recent controversial win over Clay Guida. He has some other notable wins over Duane Ludwig and Urijah Faber, fairly impressive TKO wins. Griffin's main skill is his wrestling and striking. He's a very well conditioned fighter who likes to clinch with his opponent and punish them with strikes. Training with Xtreme Couture is only going to make him better, much better.

Thiago Tavares has been a wrecking ball in MMA in his career. He's currently undefeated with a 13-0 record. His last win was against Jason Black, and he absolutely dominated the Miletich fighter. Known for his fantastic ju-jitsu skills, Tavares has a great shoot that is fairly quick and hard to defend against. He's fairly quick and also has some very good defensive moves. Tavares currently trains with Brazilian Top Team, who houses fighters such as Paulo Filho, Murilo Bustamante, Vitor Belfort, and Ricardo Arona.

I don't see Tyson Griffin being able to control Tavares at all. Tavares was absolutely dominant against a wrestling/striking Jason Black. Black even had great takedown sprawls that Tavares simply squeezed past and took Black's back. Griffin's cardio is amazing, but it will be nullified if Tavares is able to submit him early. Tavares is also very able when it comes to defending against the striking, and I believe Tavares will get Griffin in a submission in the 2nd round.

Prediction: Thiago Tavares, 2nd round submission.

Diego "The Octopus" Saraiva vs. Jeremy Stephens

Saraiva comes into this bout with a 9-5-1 record, 8 wins by submission. There's no fooling around with this kid, he's going to the ground. He is 0-2 in the UFC, losing to Jorge Gurgel and Dustin Hazelett, both my unanimous decision. Diego has an extensive ju-jitsu resume, including a Nova Uniao Black Belt in ju-jitsu. He also holds various championships in Brazil and the U.S. To be noted, Diego did fight Hazelett on a week's notice and was still able to take Hazelett, also a seasoned grappler, to a decision. Look for Saraiva to go to his strength in this fight, his vast skillset in ju-jitsu.

Jeremy Stephens is coming in with a 9-2 record, his most recent battle being with Nick Walker at MCC 9 - Heatwave. His most notable bout was against Din Thomas at UFC 71 - Liddell vs. Jackson. A classic striker, he sports 7 of his 9 wins via (T)KO. According to his profile at UFC.com, he trains in ju-jitsu and Muay Thai, but is mostly a heavy hand hitter.

My gut tells me to pick Saraiva. The guy has some quick feet, very good leg kicks as most Brazilian ju-jitsu fighters are trained to do. He also has some impressive high kicks in previous smaller organizations fights that he has landed. His main strength is taking guys down when he's being rushed. I think Stephens is going to come out trying to knock him out quick, and I think we'll see Saraiva submit him, possibly early.

Prediction: Diego Saraiva, 2nd round submission.

Christian Wellisch vs. Scott Junk

Wellisch is currently 1-1 in the UFC and 7-3 overall in his MMA career. Many fans will probably recall his brutal knockout loss to Cheick Kongo at UFC 62. He currently trains out of the American Kickboxing Academy in San Jose, California with notable fighters Paul Buentello, Josh Thomson, Mike Swick, Josh Koscheck, Jon Fitch, and Bobby Southworth. Wellisch is really known for using his size to punish opponents. He also has some ju-jitsu skills as he claims on the UFC website profile that he has won a Gracie Ju-jitsu Open and US ju-jitsu Open. He also has some wrestling experience from college. Overall, a decent ju-jitsu/wrester/striker.

Scott Junk is currently 6-1 in his MMA career, debuting in the UFC at this event. He's on a six fight win streak, recently winning via corner stoppage against Jimmy Ambriz at MFC 12 - High Stakes. Junk's primary skillset involves some decent boxing along with using his large size as leverage for his power. He has knockout power, and according to Scott Junk's official website, he's trained in Gracie Ju-jitsu and Shoot fighting. Junk's size is a question, as he normally comes in weighing the maximum of 265 lbs.

This is somewhat an interesting test for Wellisch. He's coming off a huge layoff, and he's been overwhelmed by bigger opponents in the past, but he has also beaten bigger opponents in the past. I'm going to have to definitely go with Wellisch in this fight. I've seen Junk fight in K-1, and it was not pretty. He has some very horrible decision making skills in those fights, one being that he tried to kick someone when he had 265 lbs. behind it. Yeah, if it lands, it hurts, but usually you sacrifice quickness when you weigh that much. Junk missed and got knocked out with a direct shot to the temple. I doubt that the ju-jitsu will come into play here, and Wellisch is training with some pretty damn good wrestlers and strikers.

Prediction: Christian Wellisch, 1st round TKO

Rich Clementi vs. Anthony Johnson

Anthony Johnson is a fairly new fighter to the MMA scene. He has a fresh 4-0 record, knocking out Chad Reiner at UFC Fight Night 10 via knockout at only :13 seconds into the first round. Since many people really don't know much about Anthony Johnson, here's a little education. In an interview with OnTheMat.com, Johnson revealed that he currently trains with 8th degree black belt legend, Rigan Machado. He also trains in Muay Thai boxing as well as his base MMA skills in classic boxing. In his fight with Chad Reiner, Johnson showed some great striking ability in fending off a rush from Reiner and catching him during his flurry. Other than that, we can't gauge Johnson's skills in the UFC since his only fight was over in a flash. It is assumed that he has some type of decent ground game with Machado's training. He also seemed to be very powerful, which adds to both his ground and standup games.

Rich Clementi is a veteran MMA fighter with a 25-12-1 record. He was featured on the Ultimate Fighter 4, in which he was knocked out by Shonie Carter in one of the preliminary bouts. In his illustrious career, Clementi has never really defeated any notable fighters to date. He's had runs against Marcus Aurelio, Din Thomas, Caol Uno, and Pete Spratt, losing all of those fights. Clementi is currently 2-2 in the UFC and is looking to pick up another win. His last fight was against Kyle Gibbons at IFO: Wiuff vs. Salmon in which he won via submission in the 1st round. Clementi is mainly a strong striker with a decent wrestling background. I haven't been too impressive with Clementi's wrestling. He has, however, never been knocked out, and he has managed to take a good number of his losses to decisions. But can he deal with Johnson's power? That's the big question, and also, if Clementi takes this fight to the ground, will Johnson have a ju-jitsu game to enable him to be dangerous on the ground? I think so. Rigan Machado is hailed as an unbelievable instructor, and Johnson's power supplementing that ground game will only add to the versatility of his MMA skills. On an added note, Clementi is normally a 155 lb. fighter. This may be a bit more than he can chew at 170.

Prediction: Anthony Johnson, 1st round TKO.

Sources include Wikipedia.org, Sherdog.com Fight Finder, MMAJunkie.com for news bits, all other sources are referenced in article.