Normally, our coverage of events wouldn’t delve much into the betting side of the sport due to the unluckiness I seem to get once I divulge my picks to my buddies. Fortunately for me, 2008 has been a monster year for me, so I figured I’d give a little insight on each fight at WEC 33 and help some of you decide. Don’t mistake me for Preformify at MMAJunkie, or a huge expert in the field of calculating the percentage chance I have to win. I simply look at the odds, and figure out which fights I can use as “sure-fire” wins and which bets I can take a chance on. It’s worked very well this year, and my win percentage on the betting side baffles even myself. Let’s take a look at the BetOnFighting.com odds for Wednesday’s WEC event:
Doug Marshall +130
Brian Stann -160
Marshall’s line may improve, but I’m positive that Stann is the favorite with most fight fans who actually know a thing or two about the standup game. Marshall is sloppy, and Stann has the potential to bulldoze through him in the first round. -160 isn’t a bad deal, but it’s a bit steep for me when Stann hasn’t faced incredible competition at all.
Bryan Baker +285
Chael Sonnen -355
A lot of people are amped over this line. Sonnen has had some bad fights in the past, but Baker isn’t the guy who is going to expose Sonnen. Sonnen has unbelievable wrestling and some decent power on his feet. If you really believe Baker can put one on Sonnen’s chin, by all means, throw down some money on Baker at +285, but watching Baker almost lose to an ugly performing Jesse Forbes hasn’t convinced me.
Ed Ratcliff -105
Marcus Hicks -125
I like Ed Ratcliff’s chances at -105, so it may be a bet that I would make to win a little under double my money, but Hicks is definitely a spoiler here with his jiu-jitsu and wrestling ability coupled with power. The line is fairly even, but I’m not exactly sure about this one. As a slight underdog, I will likely throw down on Ratcliff here. He has promising potential, and this is a huge test for him.
Steve Cantwell +115
Tim McKenzie -145
I think McKenzie is going to drop Cantwell in this bout, so I’ll be staying away from this line as far as betting goes. +115 on Cantwell isn’t unbelievably great odds either. McKenzie in a parlay may be a good idea though since the line is close.
Blas Avena +155
Hiromitsu Miura -195
Miura is a pretty tough fighter, but Avena is showing some promise. I’m not much of a gambler on these lower level fights, but it may be wise to throw a small amount on Avena at +155. His line may grow even wider considering he’s only a 2-1 fighter in mixed martial arts.
John Alessio +215
Brock Larson -275
My big bet will be on John Alessio at WEC 33. He has some great takedown defense, great experience against UFC bound fighters, and has the skills to beat Larson. Larson is, however, a beast that keeps coming during his bouts. He has good takedowns and crushing ground and pound. I like the fact that Alessio has some training partners at Xtreme Couture that should help him counter that.
Sergio Gomez +165
Richard Crunkilton -205
Our preview will be up tomorrow, and during my actual picks, this was a bit of a tough call. Gomez could potentially cause problems, but Crunkilton has more experience and punishing abilities on the ground. I’d take Crunkilton here, but his line is fairly steep to place big money on.
Bets I will likely take, but maybe change my mind so don’t blame me
Alessio is worth some money since the payout is much bigger than I originally expected. He also has a solid shot at defeating Larson in this one, but it should be a war to decide who will win it. I’m definitely curious on Avena, and his line may be worth a small bet since Miura is still susceptible to the early onslaught. Put me down for Ed Ratcliff and Brian Stann as well. These are purely biased picks because I think Ratcliff is a damn great fighter with solid standup skills and has shown a surprising sprawl in the past. I also believe that Marshall’s time has come, and Stann’s size will be overwhelming.
Bets: Alessio (upset bet), Avena, Ratcliff, Stann
Super Parlay action (if I feel bored): Stann, Ratcliff, McKenzie, if you're ballsy (Alessio, Marshall, Avena, or Baker)
Stann, Ratcliff, McKenzie is a boring as hell parlay bet. For $100 bucks, I'd make roughly $430 on those 3 guys. If that looks like a great deal for you, go for it, but adding in someone like Alessio or Baker would up the amount to over $1500 easily with a four fight parlay. It's a big chance though especially with Baker. Of course, I'm not completely sold on Ratcliff winning either, but that's what makes betting fun.
Don’t ask me how much to lay down because I’m most certainly in the lower income bracket compared to most people, but I bet fairly big on a regular basis. The key is to keep an initial investment, and that’s it. Don’t delve into your child’s education fund to bet on Rashad Evans over Chuck Liddell.