Anderson Silva vs. Georges St. Pierre equals huge numbers, and it SHOULD happen... in a year

by LR 4/21/2008 2:48:00 PM
Sportsnet.CA

Dave Meltzer wrote a piece over at the Wrestling Observer talking about St. Pierre's move to Middleweight to take on Anderson Silva. In the article, Meltzer pushes the point that the “super fight” shouldn't happen because the UFC's top stars shouldn't fight in an uneven matchup when you refer to physical attributes. Specifically, he mentions that PRIDE tried to do the same thing with Sakuraba, and it didn't work out. He also states that St. Pierre and Silva have a large size difference, but didn't specifically talk about length, height, or build. I must say, I'm rather put off by the suggestion that this shouldn't happen, and I don't agree at all for a number of reasons.

What's at risk here? Anderson Silva has a crushing advantage over nearly any current Middleweight, and Georges St. Pierre will demolish any contender in the division. Do you really believe that Jon Fitch has a shot after St. Pierre dominated Matt Hughes, Josh Koscheck, and Matt Serra, all fighters who are specifically known for their ground games. Fitch had trouble against Chris Wilson in the standup game, and St. Pierre will have a massive advantage in both areas of the fight.

Silva hasn't got any challengers at the moment. Okami is likely to be next in line, and while I believe that it's a much tougher fight than people are giving it credit, I still would pick Silva easily to win. That begs the question as to when will Silva vs. St. Pierre happen. St. Pierre will likely have one defense against Fitch first, then the plans may become a reality.

But what is the risk? Silva is bigger than St. Pierre? That's why it's called a super fight. No belts on the line, just two of the best MMA skillsets at a catch weight against one another. Size will always be a factor in any matchup of that proportion. It's a weak defense considering fights like this have happened in the past with size differences.

The numbers for this type of event should be huge in a Canadian city. For a St. Pierre vs. Serra event, the attendance was over 21,000. Imagine if the seats were opened up, and St. Pierre vs. Anderson Silva was the headliner. The revenues could very well beat Liddell vs. Ortiz with sufficient main card fights. It's hard to say that this fight shouldn't happen for any other reason.

I wil however argue that this fight should wait another year. There isn't any competition for St. Pierre or Anderson Silva at the moment, and there could definitely be so more opportunities to build these fighters toward casual fans. The matchup could be unbelievable in a year.

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Anderson Silva vs. Roy Jones Jr. may be a win-win for the UFC

by LR 3/13/2008 10:31:00 AM

Most fans have heard the news this week regarding Anderson Silva’s comment about fighting Roy Jones Jr. in a boxing match. Here are some of the comments:

“All these boxers out there talking s— how MMA fighters aren’t technical, well he’s willing to step up and fight them in their own game,” says Soares, who notes that the idea to challenge the aging Jones was the UFC champ’s. “So, if anything, he’s not trying to say there’s nothing to prove in MMA; he’s trying to plant a flag for every one of the fighters out there in the world that fight MMA.

Could Silva even get Jones? Locked in a UFC deal, Soares said that would be up to Dana White, but if they had their way the fight would get made.

“I think he’s a great boxer, one of the greatest boxers to ever box,” Silva says of Jones. “I would love the opportunity to test my skills against him.”

Soares also mentions in the MMAWeekly story a few days later this comment:

According to Soares, however, there are other people who think there might be some merit to putting Silva up against Jones in a boxing ring.
"I just spoke with Roy Jones' management and they are very interested in it. They think it would break all kinds of pay-per-view records. It all kind of started as a dream of Anderson's, but if the UFC would back it, it is something that we really would like to pursue."


Jones' management indicated that this could be a fight that would bring together the fractured factions of boxing and mixed martial arts. "They think it will actually bring together the boxing and MMA communities," said Soares.

So, the big question is… will this fight actually happen? When both sides of the matchup are actually considering the fight, it’s much closer than one side denying that it even exists. Most likely, Jones sees an opportunity in a couple of key areas of the boxing scene. There is potential for him to gain new fans from the crossover bout, and he will likely get a nice cut from the fight if it is promoted correctly and a network like HBO is used to create another Hatton vs. Mayweather 24/7 show. It could effectively hit over a million buys.

How can the UFC win in this situation if Jones is making all the big money, and Anderson Silva is beaten? For most fans of both sports, the consensus is that Roy Jones Jr. should win the bout. If Silva is crushed inside 3 rounds, it won’t be a surprise. If Silva can last the entire bout or even win a few rounds, it’ll be an impressive feat for the UFC’s middleweight champion and may swing some boxing fans to watch mixed martial arts. In fact, Anderson Silva could potentially become the fighter that was impressive enough for some boxing fans to give a UFC PPV a look at with his name attached to it.

The mainstream media would eat this story up in a heartbeat. The amount of hype that would be produced would be so astounding that boxing fans and MMA fans alike wouldn’t be able to keep their hands from ordering the pay-per-view on their On Demand cable boxes. The buyrates would likely be unbelievably profitable, and it would give the UFC more exposure in the mainstream market as well as on the top network television networks. If Zuffa somehow managed to promote this fight instead of a boxing promoter, huge money could made for the company.

Could this really be a win-win for the UFC? Possibly, but if Anderson Silva somehow gets dismantled into unconsciousness, I think the tide would turn on that argument.

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UFC 82 Preview & Predictions

by LR 2/29/2008 6:08:00 AM

UFC 82 will be an event to remember, or a borefest of decisions, it’s hard to say what’s going to happen in many of the bouts on the card. Many fans are claiming some huge lopsided victories while many others are seeing decisions galore litter the event’s results as we head into Saturday night. Hopefully, we won’t see another Strikeforce at the Dome card. Here’s our picks for UFC 82.

Main Event: Anderson Silva vs. Dan Henderson
At Stake: UFC Middleweight Title

People are starting to call this a pick’em fight, and I’d have to agree. This is one of the toughest fights to mull over due to the stylistic matchup between the two, but also due to the historical dominance of both fighters.

Silva has simply crushed everything in his path. He made Rich Franklin into a rag doll, and simply used his Muay Thai skillset to strike with him, close the distance, clinch, and then set up massive head shots with his knees. That gameplan will have to change if he wants to defeat Dan Henderson.

Henderson’s strength in this fight will be his wrestling. Greco-Roman control will be the key to getting Silva to the floor where Henderson should be able to crush him, but there are problems. First and foremost, Henderson doesn’t exactly wrestle when he needs to. He likes to brawl and showed it at times against “Rampage” Jackson. Secondly, his wrestling isn’t as good as many make it out to be. Sure, he’s an Olympian, but he was sloppy in many of his PRIDE bouts when it came to controlling his opponent. He can’t let that happen against a surgeon like Silva. Nonetheless, he has two big powerful hands to fall back on if he’s in trouble. The potential for a knockout win from either fighter is very high.

I’ve battled with who to pick in this fight for days, and honestly, it doesn’t matter. They are very even in regards to how their skills compete with one another. A BJJ Black Belt with surgical Muay Thai striking against an Olympic Greco-Roman wrestler with heavy hands is a classic matchup that should provide a spectacular main event. Who will win?

I’m going to have to go with Anderson Silva. I was a supporter of the whole idea behind Henderson winning this fight. He has better wrestling; therefore he can get the takedown and pound on Silva. I understand that point. My only problem is that I can only see Henderson ending this fight in the standup, and Silva has reach, awesome power for having such big reach, and he is a surgeon on his feet with his strikes. He can wear down Henderson with punches, and then move in for the kill. People know Henderson can ward off the clinch, but can he do it while he’s wobbly… most fighters can’t. To sum it up, I’m taking Silva because I think he has more tools to end this fight.

Leland’s Prediction: Anderson Silva via TKO/KO, Round 2

The person who wins this fight is the person who can impose their will on their opponent. This is as close to a pick ‘em fight as there has been in recent events, but I like Henderson’s chances against Silva. Henderson has the advantage because of this reason: he can keep Silva guessing. Silva knows that Henderson can take him down, and I assure you, Dan will be using his feints a lot. Imagine dropping his head down and faking a takedown, but instead, he throws that huge overhand right. The thing that scares me about Henderson is that he tends to get into brawls. He abandons his wrestling and will choose to stand and trade instead. I don’t think he’ll make that mistake against Silva. I think Henderson will be able to impose his will and dominate Silva inside the clinch with his Greco-roman ability, and he’ll earn a stoppage via strikes late in the fight.

Joe's Prediction: Dan Henderson via TKO/KO, Round 3

Cheick Kongo vs. Heath Herring

This is another tough fight on the event’s card to predict. Herring has a career that spans a decade, and in that time, he’s managed to win 16 of his bouts by submission. Many fans don’t associate Herring with a submission game, but I think that’s exactly what he’ll be looking to do in this matchup.

Kongo will likely try to use his bread and butter, Muay Thai, to defeat Herring along the cage. It’s been working for him in his two most recent wins, but it hasn’t led him to a finishing win that we would come to expect from such a large and powerful fighter.

Both fighters have weaknesses and strengths, but I think Herring has the distinct advantage in this matchup. His ground skills will undoubtedly come into play, and even though he isn’t the best grappler on the planet, Kongo’s ground game looked non-existent even in the short stint that he was on the ground against Mirko “CroCop” Filipovic. It won’t be an easy task, and Kongo may very well prove that he’s trained hard for this fight, but I’ll go with Heath.

Leland’s Prediction: Heath Herring via submission, Round 2

In my eyes, this is Herring’s fight to lose. Herring doesn’t have great wrestling, but Kongo has a very weak takedown defense. It shouldn’t be a problem for Herring to get Kongo to the mat. From there, I think you’ll see a scramble where Herring catches Kongo in a choke, most likely the anaconda choke.

Joe's Prediction: Heath Herring via submission, Round 2   

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Answers to the UFC Middleweight picture...finally!

by LR 11/18/2007 3:25:00 PM

TeamQuestMMA.comDespite UFC 78: Validation having some fairly boring matchups, some key news came out of the event. Dan Henderson will drop down to the Middleweight division to take on the destructive Anderson Silva in a middleweight championship showdown in March at UFC 82 in Columbus, Ohio. As I stated in a previous article, this was one of the most probable scenarios that would happen in the division. We may also be looking at some more fighters drop to middleweight as well. Michael Bisping possibly? It'd be in his best interest, I believe. Let's take a look a closer look at the divisional impact this news has.

Middleweight division gets a much needed jolt!

Dan Henderson dropping to Middleweight will provide a much needed electricity to the title picture in the division. Anderson Silva has yet to have a solid contender in the division, and Henderson is exactly that, solid. It has been said throughout the MMA community that the type of opponent that can counter Anderson Silva well is a Greco-Roman wrestler with dynamite in his hands at times. Problem is, Henderson has a tendency to try to break an opponent with his power in the standup game. He loves to brawl with his opponents, but his strength should be his wrestling abilities. He has at times, however, been outwrestled by opponents that should have been easily stifled on the ground. The x-factor in this type of matchup is Anderson Silva's black belt ju-jitsu skill on the ground. Can it nullify the control techniques of Henderson?

Silva has made his claim as the best pound for pound fighter in the world for one reason alone, complete destruction of his opponents. His knockout power in his long lanky arms is deceptive to his opponents. Henderson has never been knocked out and has what is considered to be one of the hardest chins in mixed martial arts. He took some very tough shots from Quinton Jackson in their recent matchup and still kept coming. His cardio is very good and his relentless attack may prove to be enough to edge Silva. This is all possible if Henderson actually executes a solid gameplan. Silva's reach and striking are very dangerous however, and his power may be deceptive enough to stop Henderson for the first time in his career. It'll be a very interesting battle if it stays standing.

Henderson finally gives in

What led to this fight coming to be? Henderson has been stating for months that he would not drop down to middleweight to fight Silva, and it was perceived that it may have been an issue of money. With the UFC's contracts and salaries recently being exposed from the Couture-Dana White debocle, Henderson may have been even more weary of the terms of his own negotiations. Did Dana White have to give up a fairly large salary for this fight? That speculation definitely has merit.

Henderson would be dropping down to a division that really has a poor talent base except for the top few fighters. Without Henderson, fans may only be able to look forward to the possibilities of other light heavyweights dropping down to middleweight, or the eventual rebirth of Rich Franklin only to be possibly destroyed for a third time. Henderson's holdout had some great timing if those were the only possibilities for the division. He had leverage to ask for more bonus money, pay-per-view cuts, and an increase in pay for the fight. Making the sacrifice to cut more weight and possibly power was probably another factor in the negotiating.

Scenarios

With this signing, the division has at least prolonged its life for the time being. If Henderson actually stays at middleweight even if he is beaten, it doesn't bode well for anybody below such as Franklin, but if he wins, it sets up some great spectacle fights for Anderson Silva to dominate in for the fans. I wouldn't put it past Dana White to give Anderson Silva an immediate rematch though considering he destroyed Franklin and Franklin has beaten the top contenders below the top spot. With that said, the division still needs more talent near the top.

Once again, we will be faced with a stagnant division with just two or three fighters in the mix for the title. Ed Herman is trying to via for a run into the top and was impressive in his win over Doerksen last night, but he isn't anywhere near the top. Many fans believe he could at least make a run into the mid-tier fighters and possibly defeat some of them. I'm a bit more hesitant to think so just yet. I would leave him out of the conversation for now.

Who else? Trigg, Miller, and Jacare are all out. Once again, I resort to my argument that Matt Lindland should be in the Octagon. Lindland vs. Henderson is a decent fight, and Lindland vs. Silva is a possibility. Hell, even Franklin vs. Lindland may be a better fight than people give it credit. That's four top fighters in a lacking division. For now, we can wait for the Henderson vs. Silva matchup in grand anticipation. It should be an explosive battle of comparable styles at times, but both possess skills that can revert to a different gameplan quickly. What happens after the matchup, only time will tell. With the new season of TUF coming as well with Middleweights, who knows what we'll see from the UFC.



Why is the UFC remaining stagnant in signing new Middleweight talent?

by LR 11/16/2007 7:20:00 AM

In the past, I have been very critical that the UFC's middleweight division needs a kick in the ass. It seems that this statement hasn't been taken seriously by the UFC. The division is currently in a standstill due to the fact that Anderson Silva remains the undisputed middleweight champion and has no possible opponents that can challenge him for the title. Let's take a new look into the Middleweight possibilities or actually, the short list of possibilities.

UFC fails to convince Henderson

According to the UFC 78 Press Conference, it was said that Henderson is still not wanting to drop down to 185 lbs. to fight Anderson Silva. Is this a money issue? Is the UFC lowballing Henderson with a new deal? Fact of the matter is, the Middleweight division is by far one of the worst divisions in the UFC. It, in fact, is the least deep division in the promotion. What reason is there that Henderson wouldn't drop down to become the UFC champion at Middleweight?

The most obvious answer is that he would have to take on an ultra-dangerous Anderson Silva. Although Dan Henderson's Greco-Roman wrestling is a great counter for what Silva has to offer, Silva still possesses a black belt ju-jitsu ground game, a long reach and hard striking standup game, and has multiple tools to end fights. Henderson is a granite chin though. I imagine the fight has the potential to be a huge draw for many UFC fans. Does Henderson see that fight as a possible matchup that could hurt him? It's a possibility, but I think there are other motives.

I mentioned in my previous article that I felt Henderson was sticking to the Light Heavyweight Division because it garners bigger PPV draws, more money, and more prestige. Historically, the heavier weight classes bring bigger fights and draws. Could he simply want to fight through one of the best divisions in the world? I believe so. Henderson wants to fight the absolute best in the world, and the LHW division contains some of the greatest in the world. If he suffers another loss, he may take the money and drop to 185 to fight Silva in a card that I believe would definitely draw some huge numbers.

Unsigned talent goes elsewhere

Jason "Mayhem" Miller was one of the better prospects out there that could have at least made the division a bit more lively. He has some quality wins over Robbie Lawler and Denis Kang and sports an impressive 19-5 record. He has a fantastic submission game and decent standup, but more importantly to the UFC, he is a self-promoting machine. He has a large fanbase of MMA fans behind him who love his antics as seen during a few of the latest UFC events, a few great skit videos featuring Miller that include a spoof of the TapouT! reality show, and he loves to make grand entrances. I have no doubt that he would have gained more fans in the UFC and the extra exposure could have brought more fans into the sport or at least excitement in seeing him fight in the poor Middleweight division. Miller will fight Sean Salmon on the December 15th HDNet card.

Frank Trigg is another decent Middleweight at the end of his career, but nonetheless presents a fairly significant challenge to Anderson Silva because he has some very good wrestling skills. Barring a rear naked choke, Trigg could actually present a big problem for Silva. He has some decent power, but he doesn't have the range to stand with Silva. If Trigg went into the fight with a solid gameplan of putting Silva to the floor and was able to do that, it'd be a very interesting fight. He also presents problems to other fighters in the UFC, but his age is always a factor. This seems to be a case where White is still bitter over comments Trigg made during a few PRIDE broadcasts about the UFC. Trigg claims that he made them in regards to what PRIDE wanted him to say. Nonetheless, I'm still a fan of Frank Trigg for the mere fact that he will tell you exactly what he thinks. As Trigg mentioned in one of his most recent shows, "The UFC made me usable, Fox Sports made me famous, and my mouth made me infamous." Very true, Trigg's battle with Matt Hughes was a great battle, his gig on the PRIDE series put his face in front of millions, and his rants and pre-fight hype he generated made him infamous. For those reasons, Trigg should have been given a chance in the UFC. Trigg is now fighting Edwin Dewees on the December 15th HDNet card.

According to GracieMag.com, Ronaldo Jacare (7-1) didn't sign with the UFC, but has now decided to fight again in Jungle Fight a.k.a. MMA World League now. Why? This baffles me and I'm not sure if the UFC just lowballed him or what, but he will get absolutely no exposure in Jungle Fight and he will fight tomato cans until his name pops up later down the line again after he is sporting a ridiculous record. Kind of like Jason Reinhardt. Jacare is a Brazilian ju-jitsu black belt who placed second in the world at the ADCC championships in his weight class, only losing to Roger Gracie. He's ended every fight inside the first round. It's beyond me as to why he didn't sign with the UFC.

Well, then who the hell did they add?

Evan Tanner will make a new run back into the UFC... heh. One of the big points that people make about Evan Tanner is the fact that he self taught himself many of the techniques he used in the Octagon in his early days. Tanner sports a legendary 32-6 record and has fought nearly everyone. Baroni, Lawler, Terrell, Franklin, Sinosic, Ortiz, Minowa, Herring, Buentello, the list goes on. He hasn't fought since April of last year though. Why you might ask? Apparently Tanner had an excessive drinking problem that caused him to basically turn into a full blown alcoholic who roamed the country, randomly posting on his MySpace about his problems. Hit up Fightlinker for details.

This isn't an overwhelming good signing. Tanner is fairly old and may have a lot of ring rust due to such a long layoff. He also will have to battle through now coming off the alcohol and possibly have a very hard time doing so. Will we see a clean and sober Tanner who could begin another dominance run in the MW division? I doubt it, but people said the same thing about Randy Couture being too old to do much in the heavyweight division.

Existing talent

David Terrell (6-2) was the prospect that many were looking toward to bring some excitement to the division. Terrell never fights. He's basically permanently on the injured reserve list in the UFC because he seems to be the most injury prone athlete that I can remember besides Kerry Wood and Mark Prior of the Chicago Cubs. Terrell is a product of Cesar Gracie Ju-Jitsu Academy. It has produced fighters such as Nick and Nate Diaz and Jake Shields. Terrell is much of the same type of fighter with a great submission game on the ground. He would have presented some significant problems to the top tier of the Middleweight division. I wonder if we will actually ever see him fight in the UFC again.

Nate Marquardt was a fighter that was supposed to give Silva a challenge. He didn't, and I don't see him ever giving him a tough challenge. Okami is gone apparently because the UFC felt he was a boring fighter. Bad move by the UFC. Jason MacDonald can't even get through Franklin. Franklin has been destroyed twice by Silva in devastating fashion.

The Zuffa-owned WEC has Paulo Filho, who is a friend of Silva. Filho did state that he would fight Silva if he had to. I think the time is now that "you have to" pit these two great fighters against each other to help the UFC's MW division. Zuffa seems to want to pit both the organizations against each other. In the latest oddity, the WEC will go up against a UFC special on SpikeTV. WEC 31 has some unbelievable fights, but can it compete on Versus with the UFC on basic cable. The UFC will air a "Best of 2007" show at the same time. Very strange indeed.

Bisping, Evans, Henderson, and even Machida could drop down to Middleweight and make the division worth a damn, but it seems that they are content at sitting at Light Heavyweight for now. Machida has the best chance of making a splash in the LHW division so far since his style is unbelievably elusive, but I feel like he may get the White pinch for being boring. It is rumored that Rameau Thierry Sokoudjou could fight Machida on December 12th. Bisping and Evans winner may fight Tito Ortiz, so both could be locked into the division, or the loser may drop down. Henderson obviously is sticking to his guns and staying at Light Heavyweight. Will the UFC keep him out of fighting until he gets pissed enough to drop? I wouldn't put it past Dana White.

Final Thoughts

So, what can the UFC do since they've already allowed many of the natural middleweights to head to other organizations? Matt Lindland is available. Get over the little argument you have with him and just sign him. He is an opponent with a Greco-Roman background that could potentially counter Silva's strengths well. Matt Hughes has also talked about moving up to middleweight to take on Silva after he wins the Welterweight title. If Hughes can win his title back, look for that fight to happen as well. The most believable development in the division would be the fighters dropping down to the division. The loser of the Bisping vs. Evans fight could definitely make the cut to 185. Henderson is still on the line, but we could eventually see that happen. Machida is now fighting Soukodjou at UFC 79, and he still stands a very good chance at making waves at light heavyweight.

In the end, the UFC doesn't have a plethora of options at all. They will be banking on Hughes to win to increase his standing again. Lindland is still a non-option for Dana White. Henderson won't drop down and many of the other options have signed with other organizations or are existing fighters who are either injured or too far down the line to make an impact within the next year. Hopefully we will see some activity from the UFC into grabbing some talent out there. The upcoming TUF season will also feature Middleweights, so we could see a huge influx of talent.



UFC 77: The Complete Preview and Analysis

by LR 10/17/2007 1:23:00 PM
UFC 77 comes into Cincinnati, Ohio for a fight card that doesn't seem to be too intriguing to the casual MMA fan, but for the hometown fans, it will be spectacular. With many names on the card from the Ohio area, it should be electric in the arena. The middleweight title will be on the line, and a possible contender spot in the heavyweight division is up for grabs as well. There also looks to be some exciting main card battles along with some undercard fights that I hope make the telecast. Let's go in-depth into this card and see what we can dig up.

Main Event: Middleweight Championship Bout
Rich Franklin vs. Anderson Silva

I will spare you the history lesson on both fighters. Silva is a devastating Muay Thai striker. He absolutely obliterated Franklin in their first bout. Although I believe Franklin didn't realize the caliber of striking that Silva possessed in the first matchup, Silva's standup is unbelievably effective. His great range and reach allow him to stay away from counters while he picks opponents apart. He has great kicks and his knees complement his clinches perfectly. His height is an unfair advantage for him at Middleweight along with his Muay Thai. Along with his standup, his ground game is supposedly improving significantly and he does have a black belt in ju-jitsu from the great “Minotauro”. His long legs would definitely make it difficult for opponents in his guard as he would have multiple options to try to submit opponents. You can really make a case that he is becoming the complete fighter.

Franklin is coming off two straight wins in a run to regain the title. He absolutely crushed Jason MacDonald, but won a very boring and drawn out battle with Yushin Okami. Franklin trains with Jorge Gurgel in ju-jitsu and possesses a brown belt. He is primarily known for his standup skills and from his style, looks to always want to go for the knockout and ground and pound in his battles. Interestingly enough, Franklin has only lost twice in his entire career. Once to Silva and again to Lyoto Machida. He looks to keep on winning and retain the belt in this very tough title bout at UFC 77. This is also the last fight on his contract, so coming out on top could definitely be financially great for him.

As cliché as my analysis will sound, it's what I think. Anderson Silva is a dominant fighter in both aspects of the game. In the words of Joe Rogan, his striking is INSAAANNNEEE. His range and height are huge factors in his game. He can stay at range and still throw with power. Once he tags an opponent, he moves in quickly for the kill. Clinches are almost impossible to break once he sinks them in as we saw during the first Franklin bout. If you've seen some of Silva's other battles before he came to the UFC, he pulled off some amazing things in many of them. He straight elbowed Tony Fryklund while standing with him and knocked him out cold with one of the quickest standing elbow blows I've ever seen. His only big loss was to Ryo Chonan. Ask anybody out there what one of the most unbelievable comebacks in MMA are. Chonan vs. Silva is probably on their list. Chonan pulled off a flying scissor kick to heel hook after he was literally being demolished by Silva's standup. The one thing Chonan exploited was Silva's long legs. Chonan used a surprise move that is rarely used to catch him off guard. Franklin should somehow gain wisdom from that battle. He needs to surprise Silva in some manner during this fight. The only way I see this going down as an upset is if Franklin can catch Silva with a punch and proceed to blast him to the ground and pound him out immediately. If Franklin lets this battle go for too long, he runs the risk of dropping his hands or getting desperate and making mistakes. You do not want to make mistakes against a guy like Anderson Silva. With all of that said, it's obvious who my pick is. Anderson Silva, second round TKO/KO.

Tim Sylvia vs. Brandon Vera

This is a tough fight for me to analyze due to the fact that I am not a fan of Tim Sylvia. No, I don't have any problems with him personally, but I was very put off by his performances in the past. The “Maniac” out of MFS in Iowa has put up a 23-3 record in his MMA career with notable wins over Andrei Arlovski and Jeff Monson recently. He's primarily a standup fighter that uses his immense size to overpower people and trap them. He does have a fairly tough chin and has went to decision against guys who have a superior ground game but were unable to finish him. This will be a good test to see where Tim currently is.

Vera is coming off a long layoff after a dispute with the UFC over his contract. He stated that his manager wasn't telling him some of the things the UFC was saying to him and offering him. After canning his manager, he has re-signed a contract and we now have the possibility of seeing him in title contention fairly quickly with the leaving of Randy Couture.

Brandon is primarily a Muay Thai striker with a good wrestling and submission grappling game on the ground. He has a dominating style and is very quick to take his opponents out. He has faced some of the better competition and still remains undefeated. His most notable wins are over Assuerio Silva, Frank Mir, and Justin Eilers. If you haven't seen some of Brandon Vera's fights, do so. He's one of the best up and coming heavyweights out there.

In my best Frank Trigg impression - “Here's the thing...” I'm not a big believer in all the hype that Tim Sylvia is going to come out guns blazing and hungrier than ever because he wants to regain the title. Sure, the dominating Couture is out of the picture for now but that simply does not expunge the fact that Sylvia is solely focused on striking. I have said in the past that MMA is moving so quickly, guys are learning multiple martial arts, and ground fighting and standup are both equally important. Sylvia would have to show me some kind of miracle step in his game for me to ever consider him beating someone as top caliber as Vera. Sylvia could potentially knockout Vera and his size isn't something to laugh about, it can help him win. But Vera has taken on behemoths before and if he studied the Randy Couture fight, he knows it's easily possible to cut down the tree that is Tim Sylvia. I have a feeling that Vera will come out and stand with Sylvia for a bit. If he can't seem to get inside on Sylvia and land some strikes, I see this fight going down to the canvas quickly. Instead of predicting a decision, I'm going to go out on a limb and say that Vera will end this fight by submission in the second round.

Yushin Okami vs. Jason MacDonald

A bout that will probably determine who fights for the title next, it looks to actually be fairly intriguing to this writer. MacDonald is currently 19-8 with only one loss in his last 8 fights. That loss being to Rich Franklin. MacDonald is currently fighting out of Jackson Fighting Systems. MacDonald has a background in ju-jitsu, but possesses a decent standup game. He likes to throw the leg kicks at times to cut opponents down, but loves to throw the punch to shoot combination to take opponents down. Interesting because I feel Okami will be looking to do the exact same thing.

Yushin Okami is a veteran to the game of MMA. He currently has a record of 20-4, with his only recent loss coming from Rich Franklin. In the matchup, Okami nearly submitted Franklin late in the third round, but Franklin escaped amazingly. Okami was impressive in the third round, but it was far too late for Okami to overcome the first two rounds he lost.

Okami has some decent power in his hands, but his main strength is his wrestling ability. He is able to really impose his will against opponents, working in the clinch, and taking them down. MacDonald has had some unimpressive showings in the past. His battle with Starnes awhile back showed that even a lankier guy like Starnes can easily take down MacDonald. MacDonald will undoubtedly have huge problems with Okami's power and size. Look for Okami to win by submission in the second round, but don't count out a decision here.

Eric Schafer vs. Stephan Bonnar Slam Canada

Schafer is a mainly a ju-jitsu fighter with some decent standup skills. He has some decent Muay Thai skills from the looks of his previous fights. He shoots pretty quickly and can catch opponents off guard rather quickly. He lost his last fight against Michael Bisping at UFC 66, but had rattled off 4 straight wins previously. Schafer's ground experience may be tough for Bonnar to handle, but Bonnar's size may be rather hard for Schafer to takedown.

Bonnar was the runner-up in the first TUF season. He's currently 10-4, only losing to notable names like Forrest Griffin, Rashad Evans, and Lyoto Machida. He's been criticized for not being able to finish opponents, but did come out blazing after his suspension for steroids against Mike Nickels. His recent move to Las Vegas to join Xtreme Couture gym will also bode well for his success. He should have a solid gameplan and a very tough opponent to defeat. Bonnar has a durable chin that can take a lot of damage as well.

This is an interesting fight because Bonnar isn't exactly the finisher that many other fighters in the division are. Are we on the verge of seeing a different Stephan Bonnar? I think we may be, especially after changing gyms. Schafer, although a decent grappler, will have a tough time taking down a big guy like Bonnar. Bonnar also has some fairly decent grappling of his own. I think we may see a surprise here and Bonnar finishing this fight by submission. I'll take second round. It's a stretch, but either way, I believe Bonnar will win this bout.

Josh Burkman vs. Forrest Petz

Exact same records, exact same weight, exact same height, that's the line on the fight. Both fighters come in at 19-4, according to the UFC. I have Burkman at 8-4 by the Fight Finder. But leaving that out of the conversation, Burkman is a Team Quest fighter who has some solid wrestling skills, but has seemed to focus on working huge haymakers lately. He's most recognizable due to his stint on TUF Season 2. Personally, I'm not a huge fan of Burkman since his fight against Karo. I will say that I understand his decision to try to stand against Karo because he did have much more power and wanted to avoid his judo skills. Fact is, he loops almost everything he throws and it was fairly easy for Karo to avoid most of those shots.

Petz is currently 13-4, different from the UFC.com record as always. He recently defeated Luigi Fiorvanti at UFC Fight Night 10 by unanimous decision. It was by far his best win to date. Stylistically, Petz and Burkman match up well as far as standup goes. Both have great power, but Petz definitely has an advantage as far as technique goes. If anybody watched the Karo Parisyan matchup, Burkman's looping punches weren't fooling anyone. Petz may have power and standup, but Burkman does have a respectable wrestling game that he absolutely needs to use in this fight.

I believe this battle will come down to striking vs. wrestling. Unless Burkman is living under a rock, he should realize that Petz isn't that great on the ground. Burkman doesn't have a reach advantage or any type of real range fighting, so he will have to avoid taking a huge hit when trying to get inside. I think Burkman will be looking for redemption from his fight against Parisyan. He gassed in the middle of the fight and should have great cardio considering the guys he trains with at Team Quest. Along with a great gameplan, Burkman should have the skills to take out Petz. It could be a great brawl if they both decide to stand though. I'll take Burkman by decision.

Kalib Starnes vs. Alan Belcher

For me, Starnes has been a bit of a surprise. Most notably known for his stint on the Ultimate Fighter 3 series, he won a decision victory over Chris Leben at UFC 71 after dropping a hard fought battle to Yushin Okami at UFC 64. His real knock has been his cardio game, but overall he has had some decent battles with some mid-tier fighters. Starnes overall is a very good ju-jitsu practitioner who usually is able to stick to a solid gameplan. He also has some underrated power in his fists, although he sometimes sits hesitant when up against a powerful wrestler. With an 8-1 record and his only loss to Yushin Okami, he stands to gain a step up if he can get past Belcher.

Alan Belcher comes straight out of the deep south in Biloxi, Mississippi. He's currently 10-3 with 4 solid fights in the UFC to his credit. In his debut in the UFC, he took a tough decision loss to Yushin Okami at UFC 62, but regained his footing with a knockout of Jorge Santiago in the third round of their bout via a head kick. He came back looking to prove himself, but was beaten by Kendall Grove at UFC 69. UFC 71 proved to be a gain as he choked out Sean Salmon inside a minute. Alan seems to be a guy that could be a gateway between the low-tier and mid-tier fighters in the Middleweight division. To be fair to Belcher, both losses were taken on extremely short notice.

Belcher is primarily a Muay Thai and ju-jitsu fighter. Early in his career, he was known for showing some brutal knockout power, but has recently become a choke artist with the better competitive fights he has taken. This should be a fairly decent matchup considering both fighters have some decent power along with good ground tactics. Both of these guys will be looking to stand for a bit, but I believe Starnes will try to take down Belcher if he can get close enough. Belcher will be a bigger Middleweight since he did fight at Light Heavyweight at one point. Starnes has never been a large fighter, but he is rather tall. Belcher also equals his height though. This is a much tougher fight to predict than I really thought. It's really a matter of who shows up with a good gameplan. I want to pick Belcher, but I think Starnes is the more calculated fighter. He's very meticulous in his game, and I think he may have the patience to beat Belcher. Starnes by second round submission.


Jorge Gurgel vs. Alvin Robinson

Let me first start off by admitting that Alvin Robinson was my sleeper pick in his last fight. I thought Robinson would come out and handle Kenny Florian. I was wrong. But I wasn’t completely wrong. Robinson did come out of the gate and throw Florian around a bit, but Florian’s much improved ground tactics proved way too much for Robinson. Robinson isn’t a slouch on the ground either. He’s a brown belt in ju-jitsu and trains under Royce Gracie. Robinson (8-2) doesn’t have really any impressive wins on his record, but he does have a very aggressive style of fighting. He loves to rush opponents and pummel them into the clinch, enabling him to put them to the ground. His tenacity really allows him to cause his opponent to make a lot of mistakes and allows Robinson to get the back of a lot of his opponents and choke them out. Will that happen in this fight?

Jorge Gurgel is currently 11-2 with his most recent wins over Diego Saraiva and Danny Abbadi. If you can remember his last battle at UFC 73, which earned the Fight of the Night award, Gurgel won the scrappy fight by decision, but suffered a broken jaw and had some internal bleeding. Obviously, the guy can take a beating and keep on going. Aside from his toughness and cardio, Gurgel is notably a Brazilian ju-jitsu black belt with 9 of his wins coming by submission. Since facing stiffer competition, he hasn’t had the luck in the submission aspect as he has in the past.


This is one of the tougher bouts to pick. Although Gurgel has the BJJ background, so does Alvin Robinson. Gurgel hasn’t been able to pull off a submission win in awhile, and his BJJ skills aren’t spectacularly better than Robinson’s skills. Robinson also has some very aggressive “bulldoggish” skill. He seems to run at guys and just pounce on them. Gurgel is very tough though, and he has some great cardio. We have yet to see if Robinson’s cardio is up to Gurgel’s conditioning. Gurgel is a bigger 155'er than many of the other fighters in the division. He also loves to standup, but has great ju-jitsu to fall back on. Add in his granite chin and you have a pretty complete fighter that needs to work on his standup to really be dominant. Don't count out Robinson though, he's very explosive. To be honest, Gurgel isn't a finisher and he lacks the straight knockout power it takes to beat someone like Robinson. Robinson goes for the knockout or submission fairly quickly and he tries to end fights. I'm going to take Robinson as my sleeper pick, surprise 2nd round TKO/KO.


Demian Maia vs. Ryan Jensen

Demian is a newcomer to the UFC hailing from Sao Paulo, Brazil. He’s primarily a submission grappler with a background in ju-jitsu. He has a record of 5-0 in mixed martial arts and is fairly new to the cage, but he isn’t new to grappling… at all. The winner of the 2007 Abu Dhabi Combat Club’s Submission Grappling Championship at 77-87kg, Maia has plenty of credibility on the mat. Along with his ju-jitsu, he also has a background in karate. He brings in a much needed danger in the Middleweight Division, but he is still fairly new to the MMA game. Even with that said, his ground game is good enough to win most bouts without the need for an extensive standup game.

Jensen is recently coming off a loss to Thales Leites at UFC 74. After Lutter withdrew from the fight due to injury, Jensen was faced with a significant challenge in up-n-comer Leites. Jensen is mainly known for his solid grappling abilities, but isn’t significantly better than anyone in that facet of the game. He has standard striking, but was unable to nullify Leites’s ground game in their bout. Jensen does have some notable wins over Rob Kimmons and our favorite TUF Fighter, Marlon Sims. I don’t see Jensen’s luck turning in this fight. Demian, although fairly new to the cage, should easily be able to pick apart Jensen on the ground. I’m going to stretch it and say that Maia will win in the first round by submission.


Matt Grice vs. Jason Black

A classic matchup of two wrestlers with extensive backgrounds, this battle should prove to be an interesting ground battle. Black, known for his unique mutton chops facial hair, is a veteran to the mixed martial arts scene. He sports an impressive 21-3-1 record with stints in PRIDE: Bushido events, Extreme Challenge, and recently made an appearance at UFC Fight Night 10, in which he dropped a tough loss to Thiago Tavares. Black trains with the Miletich Martial Arts with a great background in wrestling. He has fought some of the best in the world, most notably Shinya Aoki at PRIDE Bushido 12. He has problems against opponents who have extensive ju-jitsu backgrounds, but his own wrestling abilities make him dangerous on the ground.

Matt Grice is fairly new to the sport of mixed martial arts. A product of Oklahoma wrestling, he won the state championship four years straight. To get a sense of how hard that is, he was winning a championship when he was a freshman! His most recent fight was against Terry Etim at UFC 70, in which he dominated Etim for the first four minutes of the bout. Thirty seconds later, Etim managed to pull of a guillotine choke that ended the fight, amazing the English crowd. Although Grice lost, he showed great potential. He had no problems taking down Etim, and his ground and pound was fairly accurate. Fans should look forward to seeing this wrestling prodigy work the cage


With that said, it may seem I’m pro-Grice in this bout. I liked the way he handled Etim, but Etim didn’t have a wrestling background and his takedown defense was horrible. That won’t be the case in this fight. Both fighters are accomplished wrestlers with a good amount of power to boot. Grice won’t have an easy time taking Black down and simply pounding him. Stylistically, they match up for a ground war. Black’s experience is a definite factor here. He has over seven years of solid MMA experience and has fought a few great fighters out there. I don’t anticipate a knockout by Grice either, unless he has simply improved is standup a lot. I give this one to Black by a chokeout, second or third round. I wouldn’t put this past going to a decision though.


Final thoughts

It doesn't look to be an impressive card, but I am excited to see how Franklin does. He could potentially surprise all of us, as well as Sylvia. Vera and Silva should both win, but both Sylvia and Franklin may have some determination and improved training to aid their bounce back to the title. I'm looking forward to possibly seeing Robinson upset Gurgel, although I think Gurgel's granite chin and cardio will see him to a win. There are definitely some undercard battles that will be interesting. It looks to be a decent card and for any MMA fan, will satisfy your hunger for a bit.

Wikipedia, OnTheMat.com Interviews, and Fight Finder at Sherdog.com were all used to obtain background information on each fighter along with Google.





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